• International Organization for Migration

Sudan

Climate and Environment

Activities and Findings

Sudan and Climate Change

• Critical issues– Disruption of rainfall patterns and farming in

many areas.– Increased rainfall variability– Possible southward expansion of the Sahara.– Climate-related migration and damage to

livelihoods.

• Especially severe in Darfur, due to:– Conflict-related population displacement– Disruption of resource management by conflict

and migration– Dependence on rain-fed dry land agriculture 2

Background: Darfur

3

• Mostly arid and semi-arid, with rain-fed subsistence agriculture and herding.

• Population displacement is severe and ongoing, mainly due to conflict.

• Information on climate, water, environment & population mobility is very incomplete.

Background: Darfur• Since 2003, conflict has severely disrupted

normal economic life.• Massive environmental damage due to

displacement and weak resource management:– Deforestation (50%+ forest cover lost in 20 years)– Soil erosion & desertification– Declining soil fertility (Major drop in grain yields)– Biodiversity loss

• Climate/environment issues and resource competition severely hamper IDP returns, increase community vulnerability.

4

Two Core Needs

1. Improve our knowledge of the link between climate, environment, migration and livelihoods.

2. Build community environmental management capacity and climate resilience.

5

IOM’s ResponsesEnvironment & Livelihoods Vulnerability Mapping (ELVM)

•Estimates community vulnerability to crop failure and displacement due to environment and livelihoods factors.

•Uses spatial data from satellites, surveys, census and field missions.

•Complements field activities and assists in targeting aid to improve climate resilience.

6

Environment and Livelihoods Vulnerability Index

7

Combines data on:•Potential Rainfall (PRA)•Rainfall Predictability (RP)•Potential Groundwater (PGA)•Woodfuel Sufficiency (PWS)•Relative Population (RPOP)•Adaptive Capacity (AC)

Creates a Vulnerability Index for any 16x16km grid square – and thus any community - in Darfur

Environment and Livelihoods Vulnerability

Mapping

• Combines the Vulnerability Index for the entire region.

• Allows rapid assessment of community vulnerability to drought, deforestation, livelihood disruption.

• Cannot model every significant factor: not a replacement for field work, but a valuable tool.

Implications (Example)• Millet, the staple cereal crop in most of Darfur, requires approx.

250mm rain per year for a successful harvest.

• Since early 1980s (a drought period) the land area receiving 250mm rain has been stable or increasing.

• NDVI shows normal vegetation growth in uncultivated areas.

• Rainfall, temperature & evapotranspiration (and thus climate change) do not explain a decline in yields in Darfur - yet.

9

Climate Change and Darfur: Key Conclusions

• The overall climate picture is uncertain, but rainfall is not clearly decreasing (yet).

• Local land use problems, including deforestation, soil erosion, overgrazing and unsustainable farming techniques are severe.

• Conflict and weak resource management have enormous impact on environment & migration, possibly greater than climate change so far.

• More study is needed, but we can still act to build capacity and resilience now, to address local problems and climate change. 10

Baaba

11

• Severe deforestation for charcoal production, fuelwood, construction

• Riverbank erosion resulting in flooding

• Aquifer failure due to change in wadi course has ruined fruit trees and vegetable farms

• Loss of fertility in cereal farms due to erosion, over-cultivation, loss of nitrogen-fixing trees

These local crises have devastated the community even before the worst effects of climate change occur

Mitigation Activity: Community Environmental Action Plans

• Uses a community-driven approach to identify environmental issues and build local capacity.

• Effective for conflict-affected communities, especially with returned IDPs.

• Aims to reduce community’s environmental impact, risk of displacement.

• Core Principles:– Community Consultation– Community Governance– Gender Equality– Local Ownership

Community-identified Needs in Baaba

• Reforestation

• Better fuel/energy management

• Efficient water use

• Agricultural capacity

• Livelihoods opportunities

• Improved sanitation/hygiene

Nursery

Agricultural Extension

Water Management

Community-levelcapacity-building

• Takes an integrated approach to multiple environmental issues, using local knowledge.

• Especially valuable for remote or insecure regions where top-down strategies are problematic.

• Allows effective action despite incomplete data.• Improving community environmental

management boosts livelihoods and resilience before worst effects of climate change.

20

Recommendations• Emphasize community-level capacity for

environment and resource management– Local effects often larger than climate change effects

now, but this will change.

– No need to wait for further study before acting

• Integrate climate resilience into other areas of local development planning – livelihoods, health, agriculture.– Local capacity will be essential to mitigate growing

impacts of climate change in future.

• Expand vulnerability mapping approach in Sudan and other arid states.

21

Thank you!

Any questions?

22