Internal and external “soft” security concerns in the postmodern Europe

European security

Dr. Arūnas Molis23 April, 2014

Tallinn

Challenges and threats to security

Regional conflicts (real, potential, “frozen”): Israel – Arab world Russia – Georgia, Armenia – Azerbaijan Kosovo-Serbia, Bosnia Turkey-Greece, Turkey-Armenia

Internal unrests Separatism (Russia, Georgia, Kosovo, Spain, France, Moldova) Demographic challenges (aging

population, immigration, emigration)

Competition for resources and transportation lines EU-Russia-South Caucasus

Environmental pollution East Europe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU59B77VugQ

Risks and threats linked to energy security

U.S. Access, Carbon,

Hurricanes

Latin AmericaResource

Nationalism

NigeriaCivil Unrest

Iraq Sabotage

EuropeGas

Supplies

RussiaState Re-Control

Caspian Transit Vulnerability

IranNuclear Threat

AsiaEnergy

Subsidies

Strait of Malacca Piracy

Source: NPC, Global Oil and Gas Study, 2008Source: NPC, Global Oil and Gas Study, 2008

Major vulnerabilities in energy sector in the BS

Dependency on only few sources

Consumption

Dependency on the supplies from single destination

Source: Noël ,2008.

Source: www.enmin.lt

Vulnerability of the global energy infrastructure Exposure to acts of thefts, piracy, terrorism Ageing of the energy systems, natural disasters Growing cyber terrorism

Between 1990-2005: 330 terrorist attacks on ONG infrastructure were counted

Blockage of the Strait of

Hormuz would halt the passage

of 1/3 of World‘s

seaborne oil supplies

Brute force cyber attacks in the US, October 2012 – May 2013

The US DHS The Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team’s report 2012

“$60 piece of malware could bring down the power grid”

“It is possible to have a "system in which 100% of the components are secured, but the system as a whole is not secure at all”

“Do not fear hackers. Fear engineers who hack”

Global unrests and speculations on the markets

Crude oil prices, 2011

Absence of energy interconnections with European energy systems

Bad relations with major supplier - Russia

Due to the implementation of the Third Energy Package

Legal disputes in Stockholm arbitrage and EU CoJ

Due to initiatives oriented towards the Eastern Partnership countries (CEP external dimension)

Due to the position towards conflict in Ukraine

What do the dependency and bad relations actually mean?

Importance of energy sector in RF

Oil-and-gas exports – 65% of all exports

Oil-and-gas sales – 45-75 % of state budget revenues

Oil industry – 16 % of GDP

“Gazprom” – 25 % of federal tax revenues

Taxes on natural resources use/production – 36 % of the Federal budget

Oil and natural gas exports – crucial source of income and diplomatic power for

RF government

Structure of Russian exports by value, 2010; per cent

Rhetoric towards Lithuania “The third energy package will harm the activities

of our energy companies. We are talking in practice about the confiscation of property”

“Russia will try and prove the advantage of our approach”

“Russia sees itself to be in a much stronger position concerning energy supplies. The country’s energy based geo-political importance is also improving with every new headline from North Africa and the Gulf

Pressure in the gas sector

Gazprom’s and E.ON Ruhrgas International open letter: ”full separation of the transmission business from the rest of the company, could cause disruptions to gas supply”.

Lithuania is left out by giving a discount of 11-20 % for gas to Estonia and Latvia

In 2014 Lithuania paid 490 USD/1000 cub.m. of gas, other EU countries pay ~100 USD less

“Soft” tactics also applied…

Chelsea, Schalke 04, Zenit, FC Ekranas, Lukoil-academia

2 concerns of communicational security (hard and soft IS)

Technological aspects of IS – how to make the dissemination of information safe

Communicational structures – how not to loose the control over the dissemination of information

Cyber attacks

Main aims: Optain information Disperse false information Take over the control:

Switching off equipment Destroying physicaly

Main challenges: To know that you have been attacked To mitigate physical destruction possibility and

other damage

Propaganda and Info-wars

Latest move – creation of “Rossija segodnia”

Creation: http://www.euronews.com/2013/12/09/russia-putin-dissolves-state-news-agency-ria-novosti/

Comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJCK9VORLW8

Activities: In russian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgpbbB5MN-c in english: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkMT_oLempE

“The English language TV-channel Russia Today was set before the Kremlin propaganda cart in 2005, its annual budget exceeding $300m. As its programme looks like news, people believe that’s what it is; all the while, RT’s chief aim is enhancing hatred towards the West, as testified by the channel’s former employees”

Sofi Oksanen, winner of the Nordic Council Literature Prize 2010 http://news.postimees.ee/2745824/sofi-oksanen-don-t-deceive-us-again?utm_content=bufferecd52#comments

Info-wars: “New Russia” concept

“About the Baltic States, the world knows precious little – as also about Ukraine. Therefore, Russia’s agenda of questioning self-determination isn’t a task too impossible”

“Information war is the essence of the Kremlin power, being the cheapest means to wage war and to conquer lands without opening fire from its tanks. Intimidation, provocations, projection and propaganda – this is what Kremlin excels at. With these weapons, occupation has always been justified. Justified to own citizens, and to foreigners. As also today”.

Another project: rubalt.ru

“Western journalists are used to articles striving to present views of opposing parties being a drive towards the truth. That’s a wrong approach when one party is plainly lying.”

“Over the years, the Russian so-called media has managed to write of concentration camps created in Estonia for Russians (a lie dating 2007). In the mind of the Kremlin, Finland also historically belongs to Russia. And: in a Finnish hotel, children are being stolen from Russian tourists (a lie dating 2013).”

Insights on propaganda..

Climate Change issue

Global financial and economic crisis

Security is not immune to the crises

Low income + high unemployment + fragile states = explosive mix

ExtremismExtremism

RadicalismRadicalism

Hostile Hostile behaviorbehavior

IncomeIncome

EmploymentEmployment

Oil pricesOil prices

ToleranceTolerance

State powerState power