Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake ... · IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena (Ouzounov et al, 2008) Hot

IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena

Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in Seismically Active Areas

D.Ouzounov1,2, S.Pulinets3, M.Kafatos1, P.Taylor2

1 Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA2 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA,3 Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow,

Russia,4

Sensor Web Approach for Earthquake studies (Taiwan) TIR Anomaly associated with Wenchuan

M7.9,May 12th, 2008 earthquakeTIR Anomaly associated with Abruzzo (Italy) 2009.04.06 M6.3 earthquake


1. Earthquake precursory phenomena

2. Hot-spot alerts around M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake

China 2008

3. Joint Model –Space – Terrestrial Framework .

4. Summary

Contents

2


Source of the Natural Hazardsand Early Warning Systems

DisasterManagementCycle

Planning

Mitigation

Response

Rec

over

y

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

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Map showing the locations of earthquake early-warning systems currently in operation (blue) or development (green) around the world. Operational systems include Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Turkey. Systems are in development for California, Egypt, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Switzerland. The locations are overlaid on the GSHAP global seismic hazard map (Giardini et al., 1999). (After Allen, 2007)15-50 sec lead time

Map of earthquake early-warning systems


List of possible earthquake precursors

• Planetary positions • Ground deformations • Geomagnetic methods • Energy accumulation rate• Earthquake clouds • Gravity anomalies • Ground water level• Radon concentrations• Meteorological conditions• Thermal infrared• Infrasound• Crustal stress• Abnormal behaviour of animals• Geo-electric pulse

• Historical/statistical data• Ground-based EM field • Tilt meters • GPS• TGFR• MS-Double Time Method• Geo-electricity • Micro-vibration• Earth resistivity• Geochemistry • Seismic gap• Foreshocks• Geodesy• Micro-changes• Ionosphere

After Vandergeden(2005)

5


ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN6


Earthquake precursor science now…

It is a SES natural time!

It is GPS/TEC anomaly!

It is a ULF signal!

It is a Rn anomaly!

It is a Thermal anomaly!

It is a Seismic precursor!

EQ precursor processes

7


Methodology of the precursory signals we are investigating as part of the Sensor Web

Geophysical signature Source Data Thermal infrared MODIS, AIRS LST, SST

NOAA/AVHRR 15,16,17 OLRSurface heat flux NCAR-data center SLHFTotal Electron Content GPS Dual frequenciesIonospheric variability DEMETER VLF/ELF, Te, Ne, Ni, Ti,Radon concentrations ground measurements GammaMeteorological information MODIS,GOES, METEOSAT RGB, Cloud data

• TIR- thermal infrared, LST-Land surface temperature, SST- Sea surface temperature, OLR –Ongoing long wave radiation, NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research.

8


Hot-spot alerts around M7.9 Wenchuan EarthquakeChina 2008

9

Time-series of daily day-time radiation for (left to right) -(1)May 6th,(2)12th, (3) USGS map for (4)16th of May over the West Sichuan province (Ouzounov et al, 2008)

16th May12th May6th May 12th May

•May 6th (-6 days)- an internal EQ Alert#1•May 16th (-2 days) – EQ Alert#2, M6.0 has occurred on May 17th

•May 23rd (-2 days) – EQ Alert#3, M5.8 has occurred on May 25th


(Ouzounov et al, 2008)

Hot spot maps of daily TIR earth outgoing radiation over the epicenter of M7.8 Eastern Sichuan earthquake, China May 5- May 16, 2008

05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10 May

11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May

Alert 1

Alert 2


Map of GPS DTEC (SHAO) around the time of M7.8 Eastern Sichuan earthquake, China May 5- May 16, 2008


Faults activation – permeability changesGas discharges including radon

emanation

Air ionization by α-particles –product of radon decay

Ions hydration– formationof aerosol size particlesHumidity drop

Latent heat release

Air temperature growth

Air conductivity change

Atmospheric electricfield growth

Electric field effects within the ionosphere

Earthquake clouds formation

Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EF

OLR anomalies

Schematic presentation of the LAIC model (v.2009)

Air pressure drop

12

Pulinets et al, 2008


Where we are now?Methodology of the precursory signals we are investigating

Thermal infrared NOAA/AVHRR,AQUA/AIRS OLR

EQEQ

22 ä åê àáð ÿ 2004 ã. 1 2:30 GMT

90 100° 11 0°

110°100°90°80° 90°

° 10

° 0

80°

°

10

°

0

°

Jet Stream CurrentNOAA

Ionospheric variabilityDMSP,DEMETER-VLF/ELF, Te, Ne, Ni, Ti

Clouds information MODIS,GOES, METEOSAT

Total Electron Content GPS, Dual frequencies

Geophysical signature/ Source/Example

13


How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space…

14



15


Joint Model –Space – Terrestrial Framework (JMSTF)

SatelliteSensor

Detection

SatelliteSensor

SatelliteSensor

Modeling

Monitoring

Alerting

SatelliteSensor

GroundSensor

GroundSensor

GroundSensor

GroundSensor

Data MiningLAICMechanism

16



Case studies of TIR- earthquake analysis(hind casting mode)

200 M>5.0 (TIR,OLR,GPS/TEC, OLR, SLHF,T/H,DEMETER)

Global analysis of OLR variability prior to major earthquakes 2001-2005 Name Date M, H,(km) EQ mechanism OLRAnomaly W/m-2 Detection time,days Toll Bhuj, Gujarat India 01/26/2001 7.9 23.6 Thrust Fault 12 -25 20,000 Southeastern Iran 12/26/2003 6.6 15.0 Strike-slip fault 8 -25 31,000 Kashmir Pakistan 10/15/2005 7.6 10.0 Strike 12 -15 100,000 Andama.Sumatra, 12/26/2004 9.0 28.6 Mega trust 18 -26 284,000

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2-D Plot of NOAA/AVHRR OLR (at 300mb) Jan 1- April 30, 2009 1x1 degree over the

epicentral area, (Longitudinal lock on 12.5E)

Time=10*DaysJan 01-April30, 2009

Abruzzo M6.3 Earthquake , Italy, April 6,2009


Summary

§Our Satellite analysis detected in advance to the Wenchuan earthquake the following signals: Thermal Anomaly on May 6th (-6 days): Ionospheric TEC anomaly on May 9th(3-days)

§§Using Using the fundamental principles of atmospheric physics the the fundamental principles of atmospheric physics the LAIC model was updated in order to explain the most of the LAIC model was updated in order to explain the most of the atmospheric thermalatmospheric thermal and ionospheric variations and ionospheric variations observed before observed before the earthquakesthe earthquakes

§§Practical Practical applicationsapplications could could be build for automatic be build for automatic identification of the earthquake identification of the earthquake precursors;precursors;

§ Why we need International cooperation within IDRC: The complex and dynamic nature of the earthquake hazard risk on global scale requires spatial, spectral, and temporal coverage that is far beyond any single method and satellite mission.

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Validation of earthquake precursors VESTO 2009March 26-28, Chiba, Japan

Thank you!

Documents

Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake ... · IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena (Ouzounov et al, 2008) Hot