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Interactions between Amazon economies, ecosystems, and climate: Opportunities

for policy intervention

Climate Change and the Fate of the AmazonUniversity of Oxford20-22 March 2007

Tropics Non-tropicsLong term 50% 50%1990s 100% 0%

Carbon emissionsfrom tropical deforestation

Houghton et al. unpublished

1998: emissions from forest fires in Amazon and Borneo = 1.5-2.0 Pg

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Topics:Drivers

•Future deforestation trends

•Drought, logging, fire & “scrubification”(juquirização)

Policy responses

•Carbon markets

•Regional planning “with teeth”

•Commodity markets

Deforestation will increase:biofuel and emerging meat-eating

nations

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Cultivated Land

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

USA Brazil

Mill

ion

Squa

re K

ilom

eter

s

PotentialCurrent

FAO 2005; Michael Schean, USDA/FAS, communic. pessoal.;Nepstad, D., C. Stickler, O. Almeida, 2006. Conservation Biology

Future agricultural expansion will be mostly in the tropics

Russian closes door on beef

US weakens $

Mad cow

More meat-eaters; need ration

Amazon deforestation driven by economic “teleconnections”

Source: Nepstad, Stickler, Almeida 2006. Cons. Biol: Nepstad, Stickler, in press, J Sust. Forestry

Biofuel

4

Current and Projected Ethanol Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

EC US Japan Total

Mill

ions

Cub

ic M

eter

s 20052010

Higher Oil Prices

More USCorn

More AmazonSoy

Amazon Deforestation

(soy financing beef)

Less South.Brazil Soy

Higher SoyPrices

Emerging Meat-eating

Nations

Gulf of MexicoAnoxia

Less USSoy

Higher Ethanol Price

Higher Biodiesel Prices

More BrazilianSugar Cane

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The price of soy and beefand the strength of the dollar exert enormous influence over Amazon deforestation.

The decline in deforestationin 2005 and 2006 waspartially due to these 3 economic factors

Nepstad, Stickler, Almeida. 2006 Globalization of The Amazon soy and beef industries: Opportunities for conservation. Conservation Biology

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AMAZON SCENARIOS: Model Components

Landcover

Rain, T

Carbon

Landcover

Burned Area, Regrowth

1998Ppt-ET

The rainfall deficit

Logging

Agriculture

Ecology

Productivity

FlammabilityTerrestrialBiodiversity

Run-off, carbonSediments, toxins

Habitat, Hunting Food, r

Rainfall, T, rad

Economics

Aquatic Resources/Watershed Health

Climate

•Embrapa Amazonia Oriental•Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa Espacial/Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Clima (INPE/CPTEC)•Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazonia (IPAM)•Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA)•Univ. Federal Minas Gerais•Univ. Federal Para•Univ. Federal Acre•Univ. Federal Rondonia•Univ. Sao Paulo

•Boston University•Duke University•Stanford University/Carnegie Institute•University Virginia•Woods Hole Research Center•Yale University

Amazon Scenarios Institutions

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A Multi-disciplinary Team

Climatology:

Ecology/Biology:

Economics:

Geography:

Hydrology:

Mathematics & Computation:

Policy Applications:

Remote Sensing:

Roni Avissar, C. Nobre, P. Dias, J. Tomasella

D. Nepstad, R. Houghton, M. Coe, P. Brando,G. Cardinot, C. Azevedo-Ramos, P. Moutinho, Moacyr B. Filho

Frank Merry, R. Kaufmann, O. Almeida, M.C. Vera-Diaz, G. Amacher, S. Rivero, E. Reis

Britaldo, A. Alencar, C. Stickler, D. McGrath, P. Lefebvre

Mike Coe, Marcos Costa

B. Soares, H. Rodrigues, W. Little

Paulo Moutinho, D. Nepstad, F. Brown, G. Carvalho

Josef Kellndorfer, G. Asner

Coordination: D. Nepstad, Britaldo Soares-Filho

Soares, Nepstad, Curran et al. 2006. Nature

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2050 Business-as-Usual Scenario:Deforested 2.7 million km2

Forest 3.3 million km2

Non-forest 1.5 million km2

Soares, Nepstad,Curran, et al. 2006 Nature32 Pg C

2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1.7 million km2

Forest 4.4 million km2

Non-forest 1.5 million km2

17 Pg CSoares, Nepstad, Curran et al. 2006 Nature

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Logging will double?

Potential profitabillity 2005

Logged forest, full access 2030

•504 sawmill surveys•Logging will double in 20 years (even with no access to protected areas)•“Opportunity cost” of protected areas will =

$200M/yr

Amazon timber industry

F. Merry, B. Soares-Filho, D. Nepstad, et al. Submitted, PNAS

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Soy expansion limited by soils (and climate)

Potential Soybean Expansion (with Pavement of the Cuiabá-Santarém Highway): ~25%

Vera Diaz, Kaufmann, Nepstad, SchlesingerIn press, Ecological Economics

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Drought + logging + fire =

large-scale “scrubification”

How do Amazon trees avoid seasonal drought?

Nepstad, Carvalho, Davidson, et al. 1994 Nature; Jipp, Nepstad, Carvalho, et al. 1997 Climatic Change

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Rainfall Exclusion Experiment, Tapajos: 2000-2005

Nepstad, Tohver, Ray, et al. In press. Ecology

•Stemwood growth highly sensitive to drought; ½ of ANPP•Little change in litterfall or soil respiration

Brando, Nepstad, Cardinot, In prep.;Davidson, Ishida, Nepstad, 2004. GCB

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Tree Mortality:

•Large canopy trees are most vulnerable to drought

•Lianas and trees more vulnerable than palms

Plant Available Soil Water (% of max)

A soil moisture threshold?

(Litterfall and soil respiration unresponsive)

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Forest fire spread =

f(VPD, LAI, height)

Ray, Nepstad, Moutinho, 2005. Ecol. Appl

Scaling up: Estimating soil water-holding

capacity across the Basin

Nepstad, Lefebvre, da Silva, Tomasella, et al. 2004. GCB

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~100 Pg C in Amazon trees;

2005 drought = >0.5 Pg release

SusceptibilityForest Fire

Logging

Forest Fire

Positive vegetation feedback

Nepstad, Carvalho, Barros et al. 2001 FE&M

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Prescribed burn experiment, Fazenda Tanguro, MatoGrosso

Prescribed burn experiment, Mato Grosso

•During third consecutive burn, fuel limitations

•Cutter ants inhibit fire spread

•The transition forest is fire resistant (low tree mortality)

J. Balch, D. Nepstad, P. Brando, et al. Unpublished

GRASS!

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Global Warming, Regional Drying

Tree Mortality

Drought

Grass/herb invasion

RanchingForest Fire

Logging

But forest degradation through fire, drought, and thinning couldovertake clear-cutting as a source GHG emissions

Landcover 2030?

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A carbon market is near

Historical markers:

•UNFCCC-L2 process•ABIOVE moratorium on Amazon soy•Responsible Soy Roundtable: EU animal ratio buyers•Loans with environmental conditions•Next: ecological beef supplying the biggest markets?

Compensated Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Tropical Deforestation and

Degradation

•Compensation for nation-wide reductions in emissions during the period 2013-2018 (against a

“reference scenario”

•Support from European Community (will increase their emissions reduction targets 5%)

•Support from the “Coalition for Rainforest Nations”

Santilli, Moutinho, et al. 2005 Climatic Change

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Marginal Cost of Reducing C Emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Millions of Tons of Carbon

Dol

lars

per

ton

of C

arbo

n

Less

soy

, ce r

rad o

Less

soy

, tra

nsiti

on fo

rest

Less

soy

, den

s e fo

r est

Less

pas

ture

ex p

ansi

on

Less

cle

ari n

g o f

ma r

gina

l lan

d

Re d

ucin

g f o

res t

fire

s

Nepstad & Merry, unpublished

$0.6 billion/year(opportunity costs of zero deforestation)

$0.2 billion/year(opportunity costs of 90% reduction)

Evidence of frontier governance

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Campos & Nepstad, 2006, Cons. Biology

The “Terra do Meio” initiative: started by smallholders of the Transamazon(supported by ISA, IPAM, ED, WHRC)

22 million hectares of new reserves; will avoid 1 billion tons C by 2015

Supported by “Regional Planning with Teeth” along the BR-163 highway

Campos & Nepstad 2006 Cons. Biol

Commodity markets demanding stewardship

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Taming industry?

•IFC loan to Grupo Maggi (soy): 900 farmers bringing their properties into compliance with the law•ABIOVE/Greenpeace moratorium: major buyers will not buy soy grown on Amazon land cleared after July 2006.•Responsible Soy Roundtable: 20% of world’s soy market has committed to purchasing certified soy•Finance institutions: ABN-AMRO, Rabobank, IFC, Banco do Brasil: demanding better socio-environmental performance

Nepstad, Stickler, Almeida. 2006. Cons. Biol.

Blairo Maggi:

World’s largest soy producer

Governor of Mato Grosso

Favorite target of environmentalists

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Conclusion:•Deforestation will accelerate, driven by demands for biofuel and animal ration; land use will eat much/most of the forest before it dies

•Episodic drought, logging, and fire will influence 1/4th of the forest with no climate change if climate is like the last decade

•Frontier governance feasible

•Carbon markets and commodity markets may soon provide an important counter-balance

Fazenda Tanguro: Grupo Maggi

Fazenda Tanguro: 82,000 ha

A laboratorio of “best practices”