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Insurance
www.fitchratings.com 19 July 2016
Composite Insurers / France
AXA S.A. And Insurance Subsidiaries
Full Rating Report
Key Rating Drivers
Global Scale and Diversification: AXA S.A. has considerable geographical and business
diversification, which benefits its risk profile. AXA’s management is pursuing a consistent
strategy, relying on its strong presence in major insurance markets worldwide and expanding
operations in high-growth emerging markets. AXA’s integration of acquired operations has
historically been successfully managed and has delivered material cost and revenue synergies.
‘Very Strong’ Capital: Fitch Ratings considers AXA’s capitalisation supportive of its ratings.
AXA scores ‘Very Strong’ under Fitch's Prism factor-based model (Prism FBM) on end-2015
data. AXA’s capital adequacy is strengthened by its disciplined asset-liability management
(ALM) policy. The group's Solvency II ratio, under AXA's internal model approved by the ACPR
(the French insurance regulator) was 200% at end-March 2016, in line with highly rated peers
and with limited sensitivity to changes in interest rates or equity markets (single shocks).
High Level of Intangibles: At end-2015, AXA had EUR17bn (2014: EUR15bn) of goodwill on
its consolidated balance sheet, mostly relating to insurance and asset management operations
acquired in the US, Switzerland and Japan. The goodwill to shareholder’s equity ratio of 23%
(2014: 23%) detracts from the quality of capital.
Moderate Financial Leverage: AXA’s consolidated financial leverage, as calculated by Fitch,
was 24% in 2015 (2014: 25%), as increased shareholder funds more than offset an increase in
financial debt (in particular, commercial paper). Financial leverage is consistent with the rating
category median, even excluding the cash available at the holding company level (EUR2.8bn at
end-2015). AXA’s debt-service capability is strong, with fixed-charge coverage 8x on average
over 2011-2015.
Strong Financial Performance: AXA group's operating profitability has steadily improved in
recent years, as reflected by a steady rise in underlying earnings to EUR5.6bn in 2015 from
EUR3.9bn in 2010. Return on equity, as calculated by Fitch, was 8.4% in 2015 (2014: 8.5%).
Fitch expects AXA to improve its earnings profile through cost efficiencies, tariff adjustment and
optimisation of its business and geographical mix, despite headwinds from persistent low
interest rates.
New Plan Ratings-Neutral: AXA has released a new five-year plan where it targets selective
growth, cost efficiencies, enhanced business mix with a strong focus on protection business
and capital-light products, and higher earnings. The plan is consistent with Fitch’s expectations
and therefore neutral to AXA’s ratings.
Rating Sensitivities
Weakened Financial Profile or Profitability: Factors that could lead to a downgrade include a
sustained deterioration in AXA’s Prism FBM score to ‘Strong’ or a decline in the return on
equity to below 8%. There could also be a downgrade if financial leverage increases above
30%.
Strengthened Profitability: Factors that could lead to an upgrade of AXA include a sustained
improvement in profitability with a return on equity above 12%, with the Prism FBM score
remaining at least ‘Very Strong’ and the financial leverage ratio below 25%.
Ratings
AXA S.A.
Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR A Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR F1 Subordinated Debt BBB Junior Subordinated Debt BBB Commercial Paper F1
AXA Main Insurance Companies (See full list on pages 19-20)
Insurer Financial Strength Ratings AA−
Outlooks
Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR Stable Insurer Financial Strength Ratings Stable
Financial Data
(EURbn) 2015 2014
Gross written premiums 91.9 86.3 Total assets 887 840 Shareholders’ equity 68.5 65.2 Net income 5.6 5.0
Combined ratioa (%) 97.3 97.6
Return on equityb (%) 8.4 8.5
a Current-year
b Fitch-calculated
Source: AXA
Related Research
2016 Outlook: French Life Insurance (January 2016)
2016 Outlook: French Non-life Insurance (December 2015)
Analysts
Federico Faccio +44 20 3530 1394 [email protected] Dr Stephan Kalb +49 69 768 076 118 [email protected]
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 2
Market Position and Size/Scale
A Leading, Well-Diversified Financial Services Provider Worldwide
Strong global franchise
Leading positions in many European countries
Focus on retail clients via various distribution channels
Focus on fast growing markets
Ratings Range Based on Market Position and Size/Scale IFS Rating Category Senior Debt Rating Category
AAA AA
AA A
A BBB
BBB BB
<BBB <BB
Large market position and size/scale
Medium market position and size/scale
Small market position and size/scale
Source: Fitch
Strong Global Franchise
AXA offers an extensive range of financial services to over 103 million individual customers and
corporations of all sizes. The group uses well-diversified distribution channels.
Life insurance services include savings- and risk-type policies, allowing customers to invest
money, prepare for their retirement and/or cover risks such as mortality and disability. In 2015,
the life insurance business contributed 60% to the group’s total revenues.
In non-life, AXA provides insurance policies covering individual and corporate risks such as
motor, property, liability and health. Asset-management units offer mutual funds and dedicated
asset-management services to either internal or external professional investors and, to a lesser
extent, to high-net-worth individuals. AXA also runs retail banking activities in selected
European markets. There is significant diversification between life and non-life underwriting
risks.
Since 1996, AXA has become a leading provider of variable annuity products in the US and
has exported its expertise to several European markets and Japan, although this business has
so far had limited success in non-US markets.
AXA has been included in the globally systemically important insurers (G-SII) list since 2013;
the inclusion on the list means having to hold more capital, face closer regulatory scrutiny and
develop recovery and resolution plans. However, the impact of evolving international insurance
regulation on the industry's operating and capital management strategies is still unknown.
Leading Positions in Many European Countries
AXA is the largest European insurance group. It holds leading business positions in a large
number of countries in which it operates, which allows the group to generate economies of
scale and be viewed as a price-setter in several business lines. This is particularly true in
France, Belgium, Switzerland and, to a lesser extent, Germany.
A direct consequence of the group’s size and geographical diversification is its ability to share
best practice between various operations and start large group projects to develop specific
businesses (such as the expansion of direct insurance activities in several European and Asian
markets) and improve efficiency.
Related Criteria
Insurance Rating Methodology (May 2016)
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 3
Focus on Retail Clients via Various Distribution Channels
Most of the group’s business is with individual clients. Depending on the country in which it
operates, AXA deals with its clients either through non-exclusive insurance intermediaries such
as brokers or independent advisors, or directly via its own salaried sales force, exclusive
agents, partnerships or direct platforms. The exclusive sales force is mostly used in continental
Europe, the US and Japan, while non-exclusive intermediaries are popular in the UK and, to a
lesser extent, Germany. Worldwide, proprietary distribution accounts for around half of AXA’s
revenues. Fitch views positively the group’s ability to manage a wide range of distributors
according to the specifics of each local market and business line.
Focus on Fast Growing Markets
AXA’s growth has historically been supported by acquisitions all over the world. Integration of
acquired operations has been well managed, including multi-national businesses such as the
Winterthur acquisition, where there were competing operations to merge in a number of
markets.
AXA focuses on high-growth markets where the group had previously only limited operations.
In particular, AXA has recently expanded its geographical footprint in countries such as the
Philippines, Brazil, Poland and India through small-to medium-size acquisitions. In addition,
AXA has announced a partnership with Africa Internet Group (AIG) to become the exclusive
provider of insurance products and services through mobile platforms in Africa; AXA also
became a shareholder of AIG.
In 2Q16, AXA announced the completion of the sale of its Portuguese operations. AXA also
announced in 2Q16 the disposal of some UK life operations, namely Elevate, AXA Isle of Man
and Sunlife, following a strategic review conducted by AXA UK of the UK life and savings
market.
Life & Savings60.1%
Property &
Casualty31.7%
Banking0.6%
2015 Revenues By Segment
Source: AXA
International business
3.7%
Asset management
3.9%
France24%
United States14%
Germany11%
Asia9%
Direct & Other7%
UK & Ireland
6%
2015 Revenues By Geography
Source: AXA
Mediterranean & Latin America
18%
Switzerland11%
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 4
Ownership Neutral to Rating
AXA is a listed company and its shares are traded on the Paris stock exchange. Most of its
shares are freely traded on the market. At end-2015, major shareholders were Mutuelles AXA,
a group of French mutual insurance companies (14% ownership). Employees and insurance
agents collectively own a material 6% of AXA’s shares, which indicates important alignment of
interests.
AXA Group Simplified Organisation Chart
Source : AXA
AXA S . A .
AXA France Assurance AXA UK
AXA France Vie , AXA France IARDAXA , Corporate Solutions Assurance
AXA Insurance UK AXA PPP Healthcare
AXA Konzern AXA America Holdings
AXA Versicherung AXA Lebenversicherung AXA Krankenversicherung DBV Holding DBV Deutsche Beamtenversicherung
AXA Financial AXA Equitable Life Insurance AXA Equitable Life and Annuity MONY Life Insurance Company of America US Financial Life Insurance AXA Insurance
AXA Holdings Belgium AXA Versicherungen ( Switzerland )
AXA Belgium AXA Leben ( Switzerland )
AXA Mediterranean Holding AXA Japan Holding
AXA Italia AXA China Region
AXA Investment Managers AXA China Region Insurance
Corporate Governance and
Management Corporate governance and
management are adequate and neutral to the rating.
AXA reports its consolidated accounts under IFRS.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 5
Industry Profile and Operating Environment
Financial Markets Volatility Has Manageable Impact on Performance
Fitch views current low interest rates and the volatility of capital markets as major challenges
for AXA’s insurance and asset-management operations. In particular, in the life savings
business, the group’s ability to earn a satisfactory return on investments faces growing
pressure, although this is partly offset by the decreasing average minimum guaranteed rate
granted to policyholders.
Tariff developments in the European non-life and protection insurance markets are satisfactory
and should support the profitability of these businesses.
Ratings Range Based on Industry Profile/Operating Environment IFS Rating Debt
AAA AA
AA A
A BBB
BBB BB
<BBB <BB
Non-Life
Life insurance
Composite
Source: Fitch
Sovereign and Country-Related
Constraints
Fitch rates the Local-Currency
sovereign obligations of France at ‘AA’
with a Stable Outlook, and the Country
Ceiling is ‘AAA’. At current levels, the
ratings of French insurance
organisations are not constrained by
sovereign or macroeconomic risks.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 6
Peer Analysis
Relative Performance In Line With Current Rating
AXA’s peer group consists of a small number of large international insurance groups operating
in several continents and benefiting from leading market positions in the world’s largest
insurance markets (the US, Japan, the UK, France and Germany) and a number of emerging
markets.
All of AXA’s peers are rated in the ‘AA’ category, except Generali, whose rating is limited by
Italy’s sovereign rating and its high financial leverage. AXA is the largest insurance group
among its peers by premiums and balance sheet size and has the highest Solvency II ratio, but
return on equity is in the lower range of the peer group.
Peer Comparison - 2015
IFS Rating/ Outlook
a Total equity
b
Return on equity
c (%)
Gross written premium
Total assets
Return on assets
d (%)
Net income
Solvency II ratio
e
(%)
Reported combined
ratio (%)
Financial leverage
(%)
Allianz AA/Stable 66,099 11 76,834 833,066 1.3 6,616 200 94.6 20 Prudential AA/Stable 17,839 21 50,499 521,947 0.7 3,552 193 - 16 AXA AA−/Stable 72,641 8 91,938 887,070 0.9 5,617 205 96.2 24 Zurich AA−/Stable 29,187 6 41,673 334,882 0.5 1,675 203 103.6 23 Generali A−/Stable 24,708 9 70,323 496,455 0.7 2,030 175 93.1 35
Foreign exchange rates used: Period average: GBP1 = EUR1.37738, USD1 = EUR0.901238; Period end: GBP1= EUR1.37687; USD1 = EUR0.917816
a IFS ratings of primary operating companies of each group
b Includes minorities
c Group net income/2014,2015 shareholders' equity; includes minorities
d Group pre-tax income/2014,2015 average total assets; includes minorities
e For Zurich, Swiss Solvency Test as of 31 December 2015
Source: Companies’ accounts, Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 7
Strong Capital, Moderate Leverage
‘Very Strong’ Prism Score
Goodwill a material portion of shareholders’ equity
Focus on developing businesses with low capital requirements
Variable annuities risk reduced
Financial leverage in line with the rating
‘Very Strong’ Prism Score
AXA scored ‘Very Strong’ under Fitch's Prism FBM based on end-2015 results. The Prism FBM
score is the ratio of total available capital (TAC) divided by target capital (TC) at various stress
levels, with the Prism score itself equal to the highest category where TAC exceeds TC. AXA’s
investment portfolio risks are the biggest drivers of TC.
The group's Solvency II ratio, under AXA's internal model approved by the ACPR (the French
insurance regulator) in November 2015, was 200% at end-March 2016. The ratio is in line with
highly rated peers and has limited sensitivity to changes in interest rates or equity markets.
AXA targets a group Solvency II ratio between 170% and 230%, which gives a strong capital
buffer to absorb the volatility inherent in the ratio.
Goodwill a Material Portion of Shareholders’ Equity
At end-2015, AXA had EUR17bn (2014: EUR16bn) of goodwill on its consolidated balance
sheet, mostly relating to insurance and asset-management operations acquired in the US,
Switzerland and Japan. Despite the increase in shareholder’s equity in 2015, goodwill in
relation to shareholder’s equity still represented 23% (2014: 23%), detracting from the quality of
capital.
Focus on Developing Businesses With Low Capital Requirements
Based on the group’s strategic plan, the management focuses on developing activities where
required capital is low, such as in protection and unit-linked business. In 2015, these two
businesses accounted for 74% of the group’s life annual premium equivalent.
Fitch views this strategic commitment positively for AXA’s ratings.
Variable Annuities Risk Reduced
Prior to the financial crisis, AXA was one of the top issuers of variable annuities (VAs), through
its US subsidiary. Fitch believes that VA products with embedded options and guarantees give
rise to risks that are complex, long-tailed, and difficult to price, hedge and reserve for.
However, Fitch believes AXA has substantially reduced much of the capital volatility related to
its VA book through management actions including repricing and substantially de-risking its
current variable annuity product offering, offering incentive buy-outs of specific legacy VA
policies, and through its VA risk hedging programme to minimise equity and interest rate
volatility.
Capitalisation and Leverage
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Asset leverage (x) 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.5 8.8 Fitch expects AXA’s solvency to remain stable as additional capital requirements should be offset by retained earnings.
Financial leverage should slightly decrease, as planned by the group.
Operating leverage (x) 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.9
Regulatory solvency margin (%)a 188 233 221 201 205
Financial leverage ratio (%) 33 30 27 25 24
Total financing & commitments/shareholder’s equity (x) 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1
Note: a Solvency I until 2013; Solvency II since 2014
Source: AXA, Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 8
Financial Leverage in Line with the Rating
AXA’s consolidated financial leverage, as calculated by Fitch, was 24% in 2015 (2014: 25%),
as improved shareholder funds more than offset a greater amount of financial debt (in particular,
commercial paper). Financial leverage is consistent with the rating category median, even
excluding cash available at holding company level (EUR2.8bn at end-2015).
The total financing and commitments ratio, which includes deposits related to repurchase
agreements transactions, was 1.1x total equity at end-2015, a level that Fitch views as
manageable.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 9
Strong Coverage and Financial Flexibility Support Rating
Solid fixed-charge coverage
Financial flexibility supported by group access to financial markets
Solid Fixed-Charge Coverage
AXA’s debt servicing ability is solid, reflecting its moderate financial leverage. Fixed-charge
coverage, as calculated by Fitch, was 10x at end-2015 and 8x on average over 2011-2015,
commensurate with the ratings.
Management can rapidly move liquidity within the organisation if needed, as excess capital
sources are largely fungible across the group.
Financial Flexibility Supported by Group Access to Financial Markets
As a listed entity, AXA has permanent access to the equity markets and is not constrained by a
concentrated shareholding structure. Having frequently tapped the senior and hybrid debt
markets in the past, the group is a well-known issuer. AXA also benefits from EUR12.7bn
committed back-up credit lines (undrawn) provided by a pool of the world’s largest banks.
AXA maintains EUR2.8bn of unencumbered cash (2014: EUR4bn) at the holding company
level. The maturities of the outstanding dated debt are well spread over the next 25 years,
meaning that there is limited concentration of refinancing risk.
Debt Service Capabilities and Financial Flexibility
(x) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Fixed-charge coverage – including realised and unrealised gains (x)
7.6 6.8 7.6 9.2 10.1 Fitch expects interest coverage to remain commensurate with the ratings but volatile due to the impact of financial markets on profitability.
Payout ratio(%)a 38 41 44 46 47
a AXA’s dividend payout policy is based on adjusted earnings net of undated debt interest charges
Source: AXA, Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 10
Robust Financial Performance
Improved operating profitability
Life and savings earnings resilient to low rates
Strong profitability in property and casualty
Asset management business provides diversification
Improved Operating Profitability
AXA's operating profitability has improved steadily in recent years, reflected by a rise in
underlying earnings to EUR5.6bn in 2015 from EUR3.9bn in 2010. AXA’s diversified business
mix has supported the stability of earnings development during that period. AXA’s Fitch-
calculated return on equity was 8.4% in 2015 (A category).
Fitch expects AXA to improve its earnings profile through cost efficiencies, tariff adjustment and
optimisation of its business and geographical mix, despite headwinds from persistent low
interest rates.
AXA targets an adjusted return on equity between 12% and 14% over 2016-2020, which Fitch
considers to be a challenge, mostly due to persistent low interest rates. However, management
continues to increase tariffs, adjust the group’s business and geographical mix and exercise
strong asset-liability management discipline.
Life and Savings Earnings Resilient to Low Rates
Underlying earnings from life and savings business benefit from diversification by product
(savings, protection, unit-linked) and geography. In 2015, underlying earnings increased by 3%
on a constant exchange rate basis. The most important contributors to earnings are the French,
US and Japanese operations.
Net inflows and margins were particularly strong in protection, health and unit-linked business
in 2015 as the non-linked saving business was hurt by low interest rates. Fitch expects this
trend to continue in 2016, but with a more balanced business mix following equity market
volatility in 1Q16 that makes guaranteed business more appealing for policyholders.
Protection accounts for over 50% of the new business value (NBV); this contribution should
continue in 2016, supporting a diversified business mix and total NBV margins. The life and
savings business is also strengthened by a prudent ALM policy (see Asset/Liability and
Liquidity Management section below).
Strong Profitability in Property and Casualty
Fitch considers the profitability of the property and casualty (P&C) business to be strong
throughout the cycle. In recent years the P&C contribution to the group’s underlying earnings
has increased due to a stricter underwriting policy and supported by a more favourable
underwriting environment, reflected in combined ratios between 96% and 98%. Prior-year
reserve developments have contributed between 1% and 2% a year.
Fitch recognises AXA’s ability to adjust its risk selection, which is a competitive advantage.
Financial Performance and Earnings
(EURm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Underlying earnings 3,901 4,251 4,728 5,060 5,574 Fitch considers the main challenge for the group’s profitability to be persisting low interest rates. Stiff competition in P&C exerts pressure on pricing. Improved business mix in life should support profitability despite pressure on margins from enhanced transparency, but this should be offset by lower costs.
Net income 4,324 4,152 4,482 5,024 5,617
Net income return on equity (%) 9.0 8.1 8.4 8.5 8.4
Pre-tax return on assets – including realised and unrealised gains and losses (%)
0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0
Combined ratio – reported (%) 97.7 97.3 96.6 96.9 96.2
Source: AXA, Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 11
Nevertheless, claims experience may not remain as favourable as in the recent past, and
increasing tariffs is difficult in the current competitive operating environment and contribution
from prior-year reserve development may moderately reduce as better years run off.
In 2015, the underlying earnings from P&C business were little changed compared with 2014
and the combined ratio (96.2%) was hit by reserve strengthening in Turkey (up 60 bp). Fitch
expects a combined ratio in 2016, in line with 2015, at below 98%.
Asset Management Business Provides Diversification
Asset management is the third largest contributor to group’s earnings and provides
diversification to AXA’s financial profile, which Fitch views favourably. Underlying earnings
increased by 1% at constant FX in 2015. However, net inflows are exposed to low interest rates
and equity market volatility; in addition, revenues may be pressured as customers shift from
higher-risk higher-return to lower-risk products.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 12
Investment Risks Adequate
Conservative asset allocation
Good-quality bond portfolio
Conservative Asset Allocation
At end-2015, total invested assets for the group totalled EUR781bn, including on-balance-sheet
unrealised gains. Excluding unit-linked assets (25% of the total) and banking assets (5% of the
total), fixed-interest securities accounted for 83% of insurance invested assets, equities 4%,
cash 4%, real estate 5%, alternative investments 3% and policy loans 1%.
Fitch considers this asset allocation to be conservative and consistent with the group’s
business profile, especially as 84% of these invested assets relate to life and savings activities,
which typically have long-term maturity.
Good-Quality Bond Portfolio
The quality of the bond portfolio is good, with government and corporate bonds with at least an
‘A−’ rating accounting for 71% of the portfolio at end-2015, while non-investment-grade and
non-rated bonds represented 6%.
Fitch views the group’s exposure to fixed-income instruments that have experienced significant
volatility over the past five years (such as certain structured bonds and some European
government bonds) to be material but manageable.
At end-2015, AXA’s exposure to government bonds issued by Italy and Spain totalled
EUR38bn (including 100% of the AXA-MPS joint venture’s bond portfolio). This accounts for
52% of consolidated shareholders’ funds (or 5% of invested assets). However, the direct
investment risk to AXA is significantly less than this, as most of these government bond
holdings are backing unit-linked or participating liabilities in Italy and Spain, where AXA can
share much of the related investment risk with its policyholders.
Cash4%
Listed equities
4%Policy loans2%
Source: AXA
2015 General Account Invested Assets
Corporate bonds34%
Government bonds41%
Alternative Investments
3%
Other fixed income
7%
Real estate5%
AAA19%
AA30%A
22%
BBB23%
BB and lower3%
Not rated3%
Source: AXA
2015 Government and Corporate Bonds Split by Rating
Investment and Asset Risk
(EURm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Unaffiliated shares/equity (%) 40.1 39.4 43.5 39.1 42.4 Fitch expects investment leverage and liquidity ratios to remain unchanged in the future due to stable asset allocation.
Non-investment-grade bonds/equity (%) 61.2 50.4 66.6 44.1 37.8
Investment in affiliates/equity (%) 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.5
Risky assets/shareholder’s equity (%) 103.7 92.3 112.7 86.0 83.7
Source: Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 13
Liquidity Risks Low and Disciplined ALM Policy
Strong liquidity profile
Adequate management of ALM mismatch
Adequate capacity to cover minimum guaranteed returns
Strong Liquidity Profile
The liquidity profile of the AXA group is strong and was supported by a substantial EUR26bn of
cash on balance sheet at end-2015, far exceeding the amount of short-term debt. Fitch
considers the group’s liquidity management cautious, especially given the structurally positive
cash flow from its insurance activities and, in case of need, the significant potential for raising
liquidity provided by the group’s high-quality fixed-income investments.
Adequate Management of ALM Mismatch
Like many insurance companies operating a large, savings-type life insurance business, AXA
typically carries some ALM mismatch as the average duration of fixed-income invested assets
is shorter than the expected duration of liabilities.
In 2015, the weighted average asset duration was 8.0 years compared with a weighted
average liability duration of nine years. Fitch considers AXA’s management of its ALM
mismatch to be cautious as the group has established a maximum mismatch limit of one year
within its risk appetite framework. This limit has never been breached.
Adequate Capacity to Cover Minimum Guaranteed Returns
Fitch considers AXA’s capacity to cover minimum guaranteed returns as adequate.
Investment returns have gradually fallen in recent years, due to declining market interest rates.
However, in 2015 the investment yield was 3.6% (3.7% in 2014) in life and savings, supported
by long asset durations, in particular in Germany, well above the average minimum guaranteed
return of 2.0% (2.1% in 2014); thus the spread between yield on total life and saving assets
and average guaranteed rate was stable, at 160 bp. The spread over the guarantee rate for
new business was also 160 bp.
At end-2015, 20% of AXA’s life and savings technical reserves were related to savings
products offering one-year guaranteed rates that are updated every year and 31% were related
to protection and health with surrender guarantees. The remaining part of life and savings
technical reserves was made up by unit-linked products (23% of total life and savings reserves),
variable annuities (12%) and saving products without guarantees (14%).
Asset/Liability and Liquidity Management
(EURm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Cash available on balance sheet 31,072 30,546 21,588 22,048 26,275 Fitch expects liquidity risk to remain low due to structurally positive cash flows and the substantial amount of cash available.
Short-term debt 6,272 4,510 3,713 3,595 2,803
Liquid assets/net technical reserves (%) 97.3 98.7 97.5 100.1 99.4
Source: AXA, Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 14
Reserves Adequate
Standardised reserving process
Cautious non-life reserves
Standardised Reserving Process
AXA’s non-life insurance entities have developed thorough reserving practices, which have led
to secure reserve levels. Local actuarial departments have responsibility for setting reserves
but they must apply the group methodology, which is defined by a central actuarial department.
Technical reporting has been standardised to streamline the monitoring process across the
group.
Cautious Non-Life Reserves
AXA sets its technical reserves cautiously. Fitch considers that non-life insurance reserves are
adequately set across the group. Reserve releases have been positive over the past five years,
although their impact on underlying earnings is no longer material.
In addition, non-life insurance reserves still appear solid. The level of net technical reserves to
net earned premiums is high and has been stable for a long time.
Reserve Adequacy
(%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Net technical reserves/net written premiums 197.5 195.0 191.7 196.1 193.8 Non-life reserves are likely to remain adequate. Loss reserves/CY incurred losses 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1
Loss reserves/equity 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Change in ratio of loss reserves/earned premium -4.4 -2.6 -1.4 2.0 -1.2
One year reserve development/PY equity -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5
One year reserve development/PY loss reserves -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7
One year reserve development/net earned premiums
-1.7 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0
Note: Negative numbers denote positive reserve developments. CY: current year. PHS: policyholders’ surplus. PY: prior years Source: Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 15
Reinsurance, Risk Management and Catastrophe Risk
Reinsurance Protection Designed to Cap Catastrophe Risk
Effective use of reinsurance through pooling at group level
Well-designed protection
High-quality reinsurers
Effective Use of Reinsurance Through Pooling at Group Level
Centralisation of the group’s placement of external reinsurance is organised through dedicated
entities, AXA Global P&C and AXA Global Life. This pooling enables more effective use of the
reinsurance and retrocession markets, especially as the group accounts for a large part of
some of its reinsurers’ revenues. The scope of activity of these entities allows the group to
keep a part of the identified risks for which it believes recurrent positive margins can be
generated. The system is expected to eventually cover all group cessions.
Well-Designed Protection
AXA’s most significant risk exposure is European windstorm. Fitch believes reinsurance
protections are well designed and limit the extent to which the group might be affected from a
significant event. Retention is EUR500m, which accounts for less than 1% of shareholders’
funds.
An important part of ceded premiums originates from the group’s French activities, especially
due to their substantial catastrophe exposure, which is ceded to reinsurers. Overall, AXA
makes use of non-proportional excess-of-loss reinsurance cover to limit the exposure of its
property and casualty portfolios to catastrophic events. For the life business, certain individual
mortality risks are also reinsured.
High-Quality Reinsurers
The average rating of the reinsurance providers is high, with 80% of the capacity placed with
reinsurers rated ‘A+’ or above. Only a fraction is placed with reinsurers rated below ‘A-‘.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 16
Non-Insurance Operations Mainly Focused on Asset Management
Strong franchise in asset management
Banking business in selected countries
Strong Franchise in Asset Management
AXA is one of the world’s largest providers of asset management services through AXA
Investment Managers and Alliance Bernstein. At end-2015, assets under management totalled
EUR1,363bn, including AXA’s general account assets and unit-linked assets in AXA’s life
division. About EUR570bn of assets are managed on behalf of third parties.
The division has been an important contributor to group profit for each of the past five years.
Fitch believes the group’s asset management business faces challenges to maintain its current
profitability (31bp in 2015) in a business that, by its nature, is highly dependent on financial
markets. However, the majority of the asset management fees come from research activities as
opposed to performance fees, making the business somewhat resilient to low interest rates.
Banking Business in Selected Countries
This division includes AXA’s retail banking business, aiming to offer retail banking products to
insurance customers mostly in Belgium, France and Germany to increase loyalty and capture
potential outflow from savings-type life insurance policies.
Its limited relative size means the division’s revenues are only about EUR0.6bn and its
contribution to group underlying earnings is not significant. The banking business was
profitable in 2015, after posting a loss of EUR49m in 2014 due to an exceptional loss in the
Hungarian operations.
Key Non-Insurance Operations/Exposure
(EURm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fitch's expectation
Assets under management (EURbn) 1,079 1,116 1,113 1.277 1,363 Profitability of the asset management business should flatten out, while banking business contribution should remain marginal.
Net income of asset management business 153 311 577 419 482
Total banking assets 33,672 33,816 34,783 37,713 36,123
Net income of banking business -237 -38 -8 -49 49
Source: AXA, Fitch
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 17
Appendix A: Other Ratings Considerations
Below is summary of additional ratings considerations of a “technical” nature, that are also part
of Fitch’s ratings criteria.
Group IFS Rating Approach
Fitch views all of the rated entities as core to the AXA group, reflecting their strategic
importance through their contribution to the group’s targets. Fitch expects group financial
support to be fully available to these entities in case of need. They carry the same IFS ratings
and/or IDRs, which are based on a consolidated group assessment.
Notching
For notching purposes, the French regulatory environment is assessed by Fitch as Effective,
and classified as following a Group Solvency approach.
Notching Summary
IFS ratings
A baseline recovery assumption of ‘Good’ applies to the IFS ratings, and standard notching was used from the IFS ‘anchor’ rating to the actual or implied IDR of the operating companies. The IFS rating of the operating companies is one notch higher than the actual or implied IDRs.
Operating company debt
Not applicable.
Holding company IDR
Notching between the implied insurance operating companies and AXA S.A. top holding company IDRs is expanded by one notch relative to standard notching for a group solvency regulatory environment due to earnings and capital in European Union regulatory jurisdictions being less than 70% of consolidated group totals. The IDR of AXA Financial, Inc. is aligned with that of AXA S.A. as it is as intermediate holding company likely to be supported not only by its subsidiaries but also by its ultimate parent company in case of need.
Holding company debt
Senior debt issued by holding companies (AXA S.A. and AXA Financial, Inc.) is rated using a baseline recovery assumption of ‘Below Average’, and based on standard notching it is rated one notch below the holding companies’ IDRs.
Hybrids
The subordinated debt of AXA S.A. (including junior subordinated debt) is rated using a baseline recovery assumption of ‘Poor’. In addition, all but two subordinated debt issues are considered by Fitch as having ‘Moderate’ non-performance risk (such as ability to defer coupons). Based on the combination of these two characteristics, the ratings of the respective subordinated issues are three notches below the IDR of AXA S.A.; two for recovery and one for non-performance risk. For US registered subordinated debt issues XS01222028904 and US054536AA57 a non-performance risk of ‘Minimal’ is assumed. These issues are rated two notches below the IDR of AXA S.A.; two for recovery, and none for non-performance risk.
Source: Fitch
Senior Debt
Senior debt issued by operating companies is rated using a baseline recovery assumption of
‘Average’, and based on standard notching it is rated at the same level as the operating
companies’ IDRs.
Short-Term Ratings
The AXA S.A. and AXA Financial, Inc. holding companies’ Short-Term Issuer Default Rating is
‘F1’, which is standard when the Long-Term IDR is ‘A’.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 18
Hybrids – Equity/Debt Treatment
Hybrids Treatment
Hybrid Amount (EURm) FBM
a Fitch (%) FBM
a reg. override (%) FLR
b debt (%)
AXA S.A.
Undated subordinated debt 6,734 0 100 100
Subordinated debt 9,187 0 100 100
AXA Bank Europe
Subordinated debt 116 0 100 100
AXA –MPS Vita and Danni
Subordinated debt 71 0 100 100
a FBM: Prism factor-based capital model
b FLR: Financial Leverage Ratio. For FLR, % tells portion of hybrid value included as debt in numerator of leverage ratio
Source: Fitch, AXA
Exceptions to Criteria/Ratings Limitations
None.
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 19
Appendix B: Complete Rating List
AXA S.A.
Long-Term IDR ‘A’; Outlook Stable
Short-Term IDR ‘F1’
Senior unsecured debt ‘A−’
Subordinated debt ‘BBB’
Junior subordinated debt ‘BBB’
Commercial paper ‘F1’
US-registered Subordinated Debt debentures ‘BBB+’
AXA Financial, Inc.
Long-Term IDR ‘A’; Outlook Stable
Senior unsecured debt ‘A−’
Commercial paper ‘F1’
AXA Equitable Life Insurance Company
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
Long-Term IDR ‘A+’; Outlook Stable
AXA Versicherung (Switzerland) AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
Long-Term IDR ‘A+’; Outlook Stable
AXA Art Versicherung AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Art Insurance Limited
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA France IARD
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA France Vie SA
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Global P&C
IFS Rating ‘AA-’; Outlook Stable
AXA Corporate Solutions Assurance
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Insurance Company (US)
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Leben (Switzerland) AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Belgium
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Versicherung (Germany) AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Lebensversicherung AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Krankenversicherung AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
DBV Deutsche Beamten Versicherung AG
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 20
Deutsche Ärzteversicherung Aktiengesellschaft (DAV)
IFS rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Insurance UK Plc
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA PPP Healthcare Limited
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Insurance Singapore Pte Ltd
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA General Insurance Hong Kong Limited
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA China Region Insurance Company (Bermuda) Ltd
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
AXA Equitable Life and Annuity Company
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
MONY Life Insurance Company of America
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
U.S. Financial Life Insurance Company
IFS Rating ‘AA−’; Outlook Stable
Insurance
AXA S.A.
July 2016 21
The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
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