Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
Bajaj Corp (BJCOR IN)
Hopefully, there is light at the end of the tunnel
INDIA | FMCG| Quarterly Update
10 January 2019
Top takeaways from Q3FY19 Domestic volumes grew 7% yoy (two-year CAGR volume growth at 6%) mainly due to
re-launch of Bajaj ADHO (which saw high single digit volume growth on adjusted basis after many quarters). Management stated consumer off take for ADHO continues to remain much healthy, showcasing shrinking trade inventory, which in turn ensures substantability of hair oils portfolio.
International business (3% of total sales), which has been under pressure since past many quarters finally saw some recovery on account of rebuilding of distribution/ sales force. Bajaj Corp plans to add new markets (Malaysia, Indonesia) in order to revive growth in International business
Gross margins declined owing to inflationary pressure in key raw material (LLP/vegetable oil was up 21%/13% yoy); however LLP (crude derivative) price have started to slide and the company shall see meaningful benefit kicking in from mid of 4QFY19, since it is covered till Feb-2019
EBITDA margins saw moderate expansion despite RM inflation mainly due to higher other operating income (GST tax refunds). Adjusted for this, EBITDA margins declined meaningfully 37bps yoy despite lower operating expenses (down 5% YoY)
Conference call takeaways In Q2FY19, it launched Rs 10 ADHO pet jar bottle which saw good initial response from
the consumers in rural markets; however, it has restricted its distribution to semi urban and rural markets to avoid down trading in urban markets.
Employee cost (up 25% yoy) includes Rs 16mn one time ESOP impact. New product launches: Relaunch of ADHO and Nomarks in Sep-2018 saw good initial
traction, however Bajaj Brahmi Amala which was launched in Sep-17 saw disappointing growth on account of high salience in CSD channel (35%) which was under pressure till Q2FY19, company plans to bring down CSD dependence going forward.
Maintain Neutral. We have raised our EPS estimates for FY19/20 by 7% each due to 1) benign input cost environment and 2) initial recovery seen in ADHO (>90% of sales). However, we maintain our Neutral rating as a) customers are looking for efficacious product than plain vanilla value added hair oils, b) intense competition in VAHO space c) new launches yet to gain any meaningful traction and d) being a single brand company, it is vulnerable to frequent distribution churn, thereby leading to instability at trade level. We increase our TP to Rs 360 (22x FY21 EPS) vs. Rs 330 (22x Dec-20 EPS) earlier
NEUTRAL (Maintain) CMP RS 385 / TARGET RS 360 (-7%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S SHARES (MN) : 148
MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 55
MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 1
52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 525 / 340
LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 0.3
PAR VALUE (RS) : 1
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %
Sep 18 Jun 18 Mar 18
PROMOTERS : 66.9 66.9 66.9
FII / NRI : 24.4 25.8 25.9
FI / MF : 4.8 3.7 3.8
NON PRO : 0.4 0.5 0.4
PUBLIC & OTHERS : 3.5 3.2 3.0
Key Financials
Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Sales 8,825 9,663 10,616
EBIDTA 2,781 3,048 3,358
Net Profit 2,281 2,170 2,401
EPS, Rs 15.5 14.7 16.3
PER, x 24.9 26.2 23.6
EV/EBIDTA, x 20.5 18.7 16.9
P/BV, x 12.0 11.9 11.2
ROE, % 48.2 45.5 47.5
CHANGE IN ESTIMATES
__Revised Est. __ __% Revision__
Rs mn FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Revenue 9,663 10,616 2 2
EBITDA 3,048 3,358 8 8
Core PAT 2,170 2,401 7 7
EPS (Rs) 14.7 16.3 7 7 Preeyam Tolia (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected] Vishal Gutka (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected]
(Rs mn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 yoy growth %
2QFY19 qoq growth %
PC yoy growth estimates %
Comments
Volume growth (%) 7 5 (3)
Net Sales 2,220 1,973 12.5 2,057 7.9 9.2 Relaunch of ADHO led the topline growth
Gross Profits 1,472 1,329 10.7 1,362 8.0 6.9
Gross Margin (%) 66.3 67.4 -107 bps 66.2 7 bps -144 bps Gross margins impacted due to higher input cost
Staff costs 240 193 24.9 240 (0.0) 15.0
Ad spends 370 327 13.4 331 11.7 10.0
Other operating expenses 227 239 (5.1) 255 (11.0) 5.0
EBITDA 710 627 13.4 606 17.2 14.0
EBITDA margin (%) 32.0 31.8 24 bps 29.4 255 bps 125 bps EBITDA improved on higher other operating income
PBT 766 650 17.9 658 16.3 6.5
Tax rate (%) 21.6 21.4 20 bps 21.5 1 bps -34 bps
PAT 601 511 17.6 517 16.3 6.9
Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
BAJAJ CORP QUARTERLY UPDATE
Focus charts
Re- stocking / Re-launch of ADHO drove volume growth in Q3
Inflation in LLP and refined oil prices (up 21% and 13% yoy) put pressure on margins, however LLP prices is easing off lately
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
Two-year forward P/E band EV/EBITDA
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
0.8 0.0
(6.5) (6.9) (7.8)
5.1 5.2 5.9
8.7
(2.8)
7.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Volume growth (%)
43
.9
44
.6
46
.4
48
.2 5
8.3
59
.7
61
.2
65
.5
70
.1
71
.8
73
.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 LLP (Rs) 7
6.0
78
.4
84
.0
81
.7
75
.4
75
.3
80
.5
85
.5
86
.0
88
.6
90
.8
0
20
40
60
80
100Refined Oil (Rs)
8x
16x
24x
32x
0
100
200
300
400
500
600 Rs
6x
12x
18x
24x
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000 Rs mn
Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
BAJAJ CORP QUARTERLY UPDATE
Financials
Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net sales 8,091 8,825 9,663 10,616 Growth, % 2 9 9 10 Other Operating income 194 281 253 278 Total income 8,285 9,106 9,916 10,894 Raw material expenses -2,695 -2,991 -3,261 -3,580 Employee expenses -771 -940 -1,034 -1,158 Other Operating expenses -2,280 -2,393 -2,573 -2,798 EBITDA (Core) 2,539 2,781 3,048 3,358 Growth, % (3.7) 9.5 9.6 10.2 Margin, % 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.6 Depreciation -74 -67 -70 -73 EBIT 2,465 2,715 2,978 3,285 Growth, % (4.5) 10.1 9.7 10.3 Margin, % 30.5 30.8 30.8 30.9 Interest paid -12 -7 -7 -7 Other Income 244 217 269 307 Pre-tax profit 2,698 2,925 3,239 3,584 Tax provided -587 -643 -1,069 -1,183 Profit after tax 2,111 2,281 2,170 2,401 Net Profit (Reported) 2,111 2,281 2,170 2,401 Growth, % (10.8) 8.1 (4.9) 10.6 Net Profit (adjusted) 2,111 2,281 2,170 2,401 Unadj. shares (m) 148 148 148 148 Wtd avg shares (m) 148 148 148 148
Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Cash & bank 134 -72 -104 92
Debtors 324 363 397 436
Inventory 466 508 556 611
Loans & advances 341 121 132 145
Total current assets 1,266 920 982 1,284
Investments 3,074 3,074 3,074 3,074
Gross fixed assets 2,410 2,510 2,610 2,710
Less: Depreciation -825 -891 -961 -1,034
Net fixed assets 1,734 1,767 1,797 1,824
Total assets 6,061 5,748 5,840 6,170
Current liabilities 1,001 885 931 983
Total current liabilities 1,001 885 931 983
Non-current liabilities 135 135 135 135
Total liabilities 1,136 1,020 1,066 1,118
Paid-up capital 148 148 148 148
Reserves & surplus 4,777 4,580 4,627 4,904
Shareholders’ equity 4,925 4,728 4,774 5,052
Total equity & liabilities 6,061 5,748 5,840 6,170
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates
Cash Flow
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Pre-tax profit 2,698 2,925 3,239 3,584
Depreciation 74 67 70 73
Chg in working capital -146 25 -48 -55
Total tax paid -592 -643 -1,069 -1,183
Cash flow from operating activities 1,801 2,373 2,192 2,419
Capital expenditure -192 -100 -100 -100
Chg in investments 312 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing activities 368 -100 -100 -100
Free cash flow 2,169 2,273 2,092 2,319
Equity raised/(repaid) -1 977 46 277
Dividend (incl. tax) -2,130 -2,478 -2,124 -2,124
Cash flow from financing activities -6,416 -4,999 -5,753 -5,708
Net chg in cash -4,247 -2,727 -3,661 -3,388
Valuation Ratios
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Per Share data EPS (INR) 14.3 15.5 14.7 16.3
Growth, % (10.8) 8.1 (4.9) 10.6
Book NAV/share (INR) 33.4 32.1 32.4 34.2
FDEPS (INR) 14.3 15.5 14.7 16.3
CEPS (INR) 14.8 15.9 15.2 16.8
CFPS (INR) 12.1 14.6 13.0 14.3
DPS (INR) 14.4 16.8 14.4 14.4
Return ratios Return on assets (%) 35.5 38.7 37.5 40.1
Return on equity (%) 42.9 48.2 45.5 47.5
Return on capital employed (%) 41.7 46.1 44.5 47.7
Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.3
Sales/Total assets (x) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8
Sales/Net FA (x) 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.9
Working capital/Sales (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Working capital days 5.9 4.4 5.8 7.2
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3
Quick ratio (x) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7
Net debt/Equity (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valuation
PER (x) 26.9 24.9 26.2 23.6
Price/Book (x) 11.5 12.0 11.9 11.2
EV/Net sales (x) 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.4 20.5 18.7 16.9
EV/EBIT (x) 23.0 21.0 19.1 17.3
Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
BAJAJ CORP QUARTERLY UPDATE
Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History
Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.
Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price
NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%
SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.
B (TP 480) B (TP 440) B (TP 450) B (TP 450)
B (TP 440) B (TP 450) B (TP 450) B (TP 472)
B (TP 600)
N (TP 505)
N (TP 455)
N (TP 330)
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
D-15 F-16 M-16M-16 J-16 A-16 S-16 N-16 D-16 F-17 M-17M-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 N-17 D-17 F-18 M-18M-18 J-18 A-18 S-18 N-18
Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
BAJAJ CORP QUARTERLY UPDATE
Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., which is regulated by the SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only, and neither the information contained herein, nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment, or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.
This report does not regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax, and financial advisors and reach their own conclusions regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned within it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which PCIL believe is reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice.
Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request.
Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst(s) have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report.
Additional Disclosures of Interest: Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below: 1. The Research Analyst(s), PCIL, or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in
this report. 2. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the
company (ies)covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report. 3. The Research Analyst, his/her associate, his/her relative, and PCIL, do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this
research report. 4. The Research Analyst, PCIL, and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for
any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for
the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. PCIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in
connection with the research report. 7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director, or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report. 8. The Research Analyst and PCIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report. 9. Details of PCIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report:
Sr. no. Particulars Yes/No
1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by PCIL
No
2 Whether Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report
No
3 Whether compensation has been received by PCIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No
4 PCIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the Research report
No
5 Research Analyst, his associate, PCIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months
No
Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it, or its affiliates/employees, may have positions in, purchase or sell, or be materially interested in any of the securities covered in the report.
Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic, or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results.
Page | 6 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
BAJAJ CORP QUARTERLY UPDATE
Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material, and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall PCIL, any of its affiliates/employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage, however arising, from the use of this document.
Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety.
Caution: Risk of loss in trading/investment can be substantial and even more than the amount / margin given by you. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, you are requested to read all the related documents carefully before investing. You should carefully consider whether trading/investment is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, group entities, or affiliates shall not be liable for losses, if any, incurred by you. You are further cautioned that trading/investments in financial markets are subject to market risks and are advised to seek independent third party trading/investment advice outside PhillipCapital/group/associates/affiliates/directors/employees before and during your trading/investment. There is no guarantee/assurance as to returns or profits or capital protection or appreciation. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, and/or employees, directors, associates of PhillipCapital’s group entities or affiliates is not inducing you for trading/investing in the financial market(s). Trading/Investment decision is your sole responsibility. You must also read the Risk Disclosure Document and Do’s and Don’ts before investing.
Kindly note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
For Detailed Disclaimer: Please visit our website www.phillipcapital.in
For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S.-regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated, and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not a Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain
business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Decker & Co, LLC. Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Decker & Co, LLC or another U.S. registered broker dealer.
If Distribution is to Australian Investors This report is produced by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd and is being distributed in Australia by Phillip Capital Limited (Australian Financial Services Licence No. 246827).
This report contains general securities advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, situation and needs. Please read the Disclosures and Disclaimers set out above. By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out above. Any failure to comply with
these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013
