8
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL IN) Core business steady diversificationsincreasing the risk INDIA | INFRASTRUCTURE | Quarterly Update 8 June 2017 Top takeaways from Q4FY17 The company finally reported consolidated results for FY16/17 after missing out on reporting for last three quarters and delay in finalizing the same Q4FY17 too. The consolidated results were significantly impacted by IND-AS adoption, on account of (1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium for three projects (Sambalpur, Dhankuni and Belgaum) leading to higher ‘notional’ interest, (2) annuity projects being considered as deferred EPC, leading to lower depreciation, and (3) full consolidation of Jaora Nayagaon project. The net impact was reported PAT loss of Rs 104mn (FY16 loss of Rs 730mn) as against cash PAT of Rs 3.5bn (FY16 Rs 3.1bn). Q4FY17 standalone results were broadly inline with expectations. Topline grew by 14% yoy to Rs 6.1bn marginally below expectations of Rs 6.3bn. The growth was driven by execution on Eastern peripheral and captive annuity projects. EBITDA margins at 10.4% - below expectations, due to higher share of third-party and power T&D projects. PAT at Rs 654mn (+12% yoy), was boosted by higher other income ahead of expectations. The company received strong orderflows of Rs 39bn in FY17 taking the orderbook to Rs 70bn (3.3x book-to-sales) the highest ever for the company. ACL Toll collection grew by 10.5% yoy strong growth reported by Dhankuni (15%), Sambalpur (12.6%) and Jaora (15%) projects. Durg and Bhandara projects continued to report weak numbers. FY17 toll collection grew by 8.5% for ACL projects. Consolidated debt was Rs 44.5bn (Rs 45.7bn at March-2016), with Rs 1.3bn at the standalone level (Rs 3.8bn at Macrh-2016). Conference call takeaways The management expects EPC topline of Rs 26bn in FY18 implying strong 25% yoy growth with margins are in 12.0-12.5% range. It has targeted to win orders of Rs 50bn in FY18 Rs 35-40bn from roads and Rs 10-15bn from Power T&D segments. Two orders in the orderbook Rs 2.8bn Islampur project and Rs 4.5bn Jharkhand-Chaas project continue to face delays in commencement of execution, due to land acquisition problems faced by NHAI. While the Jharkhand project is expected to commence by October, the company is contemplating terminating the Islampur project. The company has achieved financial closure for Ludhiana HAM project. The equity requirement for the project is expected to be Rs1.5bn, to be invested over next two years. The total equity requirement for the company (across HAM, CGD and MIAL RE projects) is Rs 5.5bn Rs 2.8bn to be invested in FY18. The annuity projects of Chennai ORR and KSHIP are awaiting CoD letter expected anytime in Q1FY18. Outlook and valuation While Ashoka Buildcon has reported decent order inflow in FY17, with balance sheet remaining strong, we see business risks increasing significantly with its foray into unrelated businesses (city-gas distribution project in Ratnagiri and the recent real estate project in Mumbai). In our recent downgrade note (read here ), we had highlighted that it was THIS very ‘indiscriminate’ nature of investments, that led to the downfall of infrastructure companies like IVRCL, Gammon, GMR, GVK and JP Associates in the last cycle. We adjust our FY18/19 estimates for IND-AS related changes, largely keeping our fundamental assumptions intact. Our price target of Rs 200 (earlier Rs 205). We maintain NEUTRAL. NEUTRAL (Maintain) CMP RS 186 TARGET Rs 200 (+8%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 187 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 37 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 0.6 52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 232 / 127 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 2.6 PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Mar 17 Dec 16 Sep 16 PROMOTERS : 56.7 56.7 56.7 FII / NRI : 7.7 8.4 8.4 FI / MF : 24.5 23.3 22.7 NON PRO : 4.7 7.8 5.0 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 6.4 3.8 7.1 KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Sales 29,794 34,029 37,920 EBIDTA 8,930 10,033 10,607 Net Profit -104 -422 -321 EPS, Rs (0.6) (2.3) (1.7) PER, x (335.5) (82.5) (108.3) EV/EBIDTA, x 9.0 7.9 7.4 PBV, x 2.1 2.1 2.2 ROE, % (0.6) (2.6) (2.0) Debt/Equity (x) 2.8 2.8 2.8 CHANGE IN ESTIMATES (Consolidated) __Revised Est. __ __% Revision__ Rs mn FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Revenue 34,029 37,920 -1% -3% EBITDA 10,033 10,607 -3% -4% Core PAT -422 -321 -136% -122% EPS (Rs) (2.3) (1.7) -136% -122% Vibhor Singhal (+ 9122 6246 4109) [email protected] Standalone (Rs mn) Q4FY17 Q4FY16 yoy growth % Q3FY17 qoq growth % vs. expectations % Comments Revenue 6,100 5,497 11% 5,240 16% -3% Decent topline growth driven by robust execution EBITDA 636 796 -20% 620 3% -12% EBITDA Margins 10.4% 14.5% 11.8% Margins tad below expectations PAT 654 587 11% 427 53% 53% PAT significantly ahead of estimates, due to higher other EPS 3.5 3.1 11% 2.3 53% 53% Income

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    6

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL IN)

Core business steady – ‘diversifications’ increasing the risk

INDIA | INFRASTRUCTURE | Quarterly Update

8 June 2017

Top takeaways from Q4FY17

The company finally reported consolidated results for FY16/17 – after missing out on reporting for last three quarters and delay in finalizing the same Q4FY17 too.

The consolidated results were significantly impacted by IND-AS adoption, on account of (1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium for three projects (Sambalpur, Dhankuni and Belgaum) leading to higher ‘notional’ interest, (2) annuity projects being considered as deferred EPC, leading to lower depreciation, and (3) full consolidation of Jaora Nayagaon project. The net impact was reported PAT loss of Rs 104mn (FY16 loss of Rs 730mn) as against cash PAT of Rs 3.5bn (FY16 Rs 3.1bn).

Q4FY17 standalone results were broadly inline with expectations. Topline grew by 14% yoy to Rs 6.1bn – marginally below expectations of Rs 6.3bn. The growth was driven by execution on Eastern peripheral and captive annuity projects. EBITDA margins at 10.4% - below expectations, due to higher share of third-party and power T&D projects. PAT at Rs 654mn (+12% yoy), was boosted by higher other income – ahead of expectations.

The company received strong orderflows of Rs 39bn in FY17 – taking the orderbook to Rs 70bn (3.3x book-to-sales) – the highest ever for the company.

ACL Toll collection grew by 10.5% yoy – strong growth reported by Dhankuni (15%), Sambalpur (12.6%) and Jaora (15%) projects. Durg and Bhandara projects continued to report weak numbers. FY17 toll collection grew by 8.5% for ACL projects.

Consolidated debt was Rs 44.5bn (Rs 45.7bn at March-2016), with Rs 1.3bn at the standalone level (Rs 3.8bn at Macrh-2016).

Conference call takeaways

The management expects EPC topline of Rs 26bn in FY18 – implying strong 25% yoy growth with margins are in 12.0-12.5% range. It has targeted to win orders of Rs 50bn in FY18 – Rs 35-40bn from roads and Rs 10-15bn from Power T&D segments.

Two orders in the orderbook – Rs 2.8bn Islampur project and Rs 4.5bn Jharkhand-Chaas project continue to face delays in commencement of execution, due to land acquisition problems faced by NHAI. While the Jharkhand project is expected to commence by October, the company is contemplating terminating the Islampur project.

The company has achieved financial closure for Ludhiana HAM project. The equity requirement for the project is expected to be Rs1.5bn, to be invested over next two years. The total equity requirement for the company (across HAM, CGD and MIAL RE projects) is Rs 5.5bn – Rs 2.8bn to be invested in FY18.

The annuity projects of Chennai ORR and KSHIP are awaiting CoD letter – expected anytime in Q1FY18.

Outlook and valuation While Ashoka Buildcon has reported decent order inflow in FY17, with balance sheet remaining strong, we see business risks increasing significantly with its foray into unrelated businesses (city-gas distribution project in Ratnagiri and the recent real estate project in

Mumbai). In our recent downgrade note (read here), we had highlighted that it was THIS

very ‘indiscriminate’ nature of investments, that led to the downfall of infrastructure companies like IVRCL, Gammon, GMR, GVK and JP Associates in the last cycle. We adjust our FY18/19 estimates for IND-AS related changes, largely keeping our fundamental assumptions intact. Our price target of Rs 200 (earlier Rs 205). We maintain NEUTRAL.

NEUTRAL (Maintain) CMP RS 186

TARGET Rs 200 (+8%)

COMPANY DATA

O/S SHARES (MN) : 187

MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 37

MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 0.6

52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 232 / 127

LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 2.6

PAR VALUE (RS) : 10

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %

Mar 17 Dec 16 Sep 16

PROMOTERS : 56.7 56.7 56.7

FII / NRI : 7.7 8.4 8.4

FI / MF : 24.5 23.3 22.7

NON PRO : 4.7 7.8 5.0

PUBLIC & OTHERS : 6.4 3.8 7.1

KEY FINANCIALS

Rs mn FY17 FY18E FY19E

Net Sales 29,794 34,029 37,920

EBIDTA 8,930 10,033 10,607

Net Profit -104 -422 -321

EPS, Rs (0.6) (2.3) (1.7)

PER, x (335.5) (82.5) (108.3)

EV/EBIDTA, x 9.0 7.9 7.4

PBV, x 2.1 2.1 2.2

ROE, % (0.6) (2.6) (2.0)

Debt/Equity (x) 2.8 2.8 2.8

CHANGE IN ESTIMATES (Consolidated)

__Revised Est. __ __% Revision__

Rs mn FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E

Revenue 34,029 37,920 -1% -3%

EBITDA 10,033 10,607 -3% -4%

Core PAT -422 -321 -136% -122%

EPS (Rs) (2.3) (1.7) -136% -122% Vibhor Singhal (+ 9122 6246 4109) [email protected]

Standalone

(Rs mn)

Q4FY17 Q4FY16 yoy

growth %

Q3FY17 qoq

growth %

vs. expectations

%

Comments

Revenue 6,100 5,497 11% 5,240 16% -3% Decent topline growth driven by robust execution

EBITDA 636 796 -20% 620 3% -12%

EBITDA Margins 10.4% 14.5% 11.8% Margins tad below expectations

PAT 654 587 11% 427 53% 53% PAT significantly ahead of estimates, due to higher other

EPS 3.5 3.1 11% 2.3 53% 53% Income

Page 2: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17

Net Sales/Income from operations 5,323.8 4,659.7 4,410.1 5,177.4 6,048.0

YoY growth (%) -21.1 -1.9 -5.7 17.2 13.6

Total Income 5,496.9 4,683.5 4,427.6 5,240.0 6,099.7

Expenditure

Construction Expense 4,351.8 3,763.5 3,352.1 4,234.8 5,027.9

% of sales 79.2 80.4 75.7 80.8 82.4

Employee Expense 201.8 198.5 207.2 243.6 251.8

% of sales 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.1

Other Expenditure 147.1 78.7 170.7 141.5 183.9

% of sales 2.7 1.7 3.9 2.7 3.0

Total expenditure 4,700.6 4,040.7 3,730.0 4,620.0 5,463.6

% of sales 85.5 86.3 84.2 88.2 89.6

EBITDA 796.3 642.8 697.6 620.1 636.1

YoY growth (%) -10.5 -5.2 7.0 23.3 -20.1

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.5% 13.7% 15.8% 11.8% 10.4%

Other income 451.4 81.8 90.3 115.0 432.1

Interest (162.4) (123.5) (80.0) (90.0) (180.8)

Depreciation (180.7) (123.4) (129.9) (106.9) (147.1)

Exceptional Items (94.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PBT 810.1 477.7 577.9 538.1 740.2

Tax 223.4 169.5 124.6 111.1 86.7

Tax rate 28% 35% 22% 21% 12%

PAT 586.7 308.2 453.4 427.0 653.6

YoY growth (%) -14.5 -32.7 43.9 114.7 11.4

EPS 3.13 1.65 2.42 2.28 3.49

Toll collections picking up post demonetization Strong orderflow has led to robust orderbook position

Orderbook break-up (key orders) Road EPC Road BOT

Eastern Peripheral Expressway 5,348 Dhankuni Kharagpur 759 Mumbai-JNPT Port 3,167 Annuity BOT - Bagewadi 2,214 Islampur 2,756 Annuity BOT - Hungund 2,225 MoRTH - Badami 388 Hybrid Annuity - Ludhiana 11,669 MoRTH - Madhugiri 777 Hybrid Annuity - Anandpuram 9,426

Jharkhand - Dumka 1,768 Total 26,293

Jharkhand - Govindpur 1,917 Jharkhand - Chaas 4,552 Others 4,174 Power T&D 18,908

Total 24,847 Total 70,048

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

631 654 654 703 642 629 656

1,772 1,905

1,997

1,714 1,702 1,739

1,921

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

4Q

FY1

7

Toll

Co

llect

ion

(R

s m

n)

ABL Toll Collection ACL Toll Collection

44 42 41 43 55 62 70

2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2

2.9

3.1 3.3

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

4Q

FY1

7

Bo

ok

to S

ale

s (x

)

Ord

erb

oo

k (R

s b

n)

Orderbook Book to Sales

Page 3: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Quarterly toll collection

Project (Rs mn) 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 3QFY17 ABL Projects Indore Edalabad Road 311 351 303 219 164 Wainganga Bridge 80 76 69 54 78 Katni Bypass 53 55 42 36 51 Ahmednagar Aurangabad Road 53 48 74 37 98 Others 157 173 155 126 265

ABL Toll Collection 654 703 642 472 656

ACL Projects Belgaum Dharwad 179 186 178 141 192 Dhankuni Kharagpur 669 659 651 478 770 Bhandara 162 155 146 111 158 Durg bypass 197 189 179 138 193 Jarora Nayagaon 406 407 425 339 467 Pimpalgaon Nasik Gonde 258 0 - - - Sambalpur baragarh 125 117 123 97 141

ACL Toll Collection 1,997 1,714 1,702 1,304 1,921

Total Growth 14% -3% -4% -32% -4% Total Like-for-like growth 14% 9% 11% -21% 10%

Assumptions and valuation for the MIAL project Total area (mn sqft) 1.17 Rentals (FY 2021, Rs psf) 150.0 IRR (19 yrs) 17.3% FSI 1.30 Triennial escalation 10% IRR (49 yrs) 20.2% Leasable area (mn sqft) 1.52 Revenue share (Rs mn) 152.4

Execution start year FY18 Triennial escalation 15% NPV (Rs mn) 4,639 Leasing start year FY21 Construction cost (Rs psf) 4,000 NPV (per share) 25

Debt repayment start FY23 Debt repayment ends FY35

Particulars Rs mn Peak Occupancy year FY25 Project Cost 9,000 Peak Occupancy 90% Equity 2,500 NOI Margins 90% Debt 6,500 Interest rate on debt 10% Upfront Deposit 3,240 Tax rate 30% Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

SoTP valuation

Project Equity

Value (Rs mn) Stake (%)

Ashoka Equity

Value (Rs mn)

Per Share

(Rs)

ABL BOT Projects

2x FCFE of 18 BOT Projects 14 Small BOT Projects 3,544 100 3,544 18.9 Jarora Nayagaon (DCF) 7,921 38 2,986 16.0 KSHIP (DCF) 668 100 668 3.6 Two Annuity Projects (1x BV) 823 100 823 4.4

Value to Ashoka Buildcon 12,956

8,021 42.9

EPC Division

7x FY19 EV/EBITDA EPC division 3,377 7.0 23,640 126.3 Net cash at parent level 308

308 1.6

Value to Ashoka Buildcon 23,948

23,948 128.0

ACL BOT Projects

NPV @ 13% CoE

Bhandara 708 51 361 1.9

Jarora Nayagaon 7,921 62 4,935 26.4

Belgaum Dharwad 1,565 100 1,565 8.4

Durg bypass 1,632 51 833 4.4

Sambalpur Baragarh 753 100 753 4.0

Dhankuni Kharagpur 1,660 100 1,660 8.9

Chennai ORR 3,061 50 1,530 8.2

Total 17,300

11,636 62.2

Holding company discount

20% 9,309 49.7

Value to Ashoka Buildcon

61.0% 5,679 30.3

Total value of Ashoka Buildcon

37,647 200.0

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

We value ABL’s BOT portfolio at 2x FY16 FCFE, with only two years of average useful life remaining for the projects, and expected increase in FCFE assumed to be equivalent to the discount rate

We value the EPC division at 7x our FY19 EV/EBITDA – a premium to our valuation for IRB (5x) We have removed PNG project and factored in higher stake in Jaora project We provide a 20% holding company discount to ACL’s valuation

While the MIAL project might appear to be an attractive investment (IRR, NPV), we are concerned about locking of significant capital (Rs 2.5-3.0bn) for a period of 49 years – along with execution risk and increasing leverage at the consolidated level.

Page 4: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Financials (Consolidated)

Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Net sales 28,253 29,794 34,029 37,920

Growth, % 22 5 14 11

Total income 28,253 29,794 34,029 37,920

Raw material expenses 0 0 0 0

Employee expenses -958 -1,180 -1,348 -1,502

Other Operating expenses -17,982 -19,683 -22,648 -25,812

EBITDA (Core) 9,312 8,930 10,033 10,607

Growth, % 82.2 (4.1) 12.3 5.7

Margin, % 33.0 30.0 29.5 28.0

Depreciation -2,688 -2,731 -3,569 -3,668

EBIT 6,624 6,200 6,464 6,939

Growth, % 84.4 (6.4) 4.3 7.3

Margin, % 23.4 20.8 19.0 18.3

Interest paid -7,930 -7,883 -8,213 -8,366 Other Non-Operating Income 783 1,219 1,158 1,100 Non-recurring Items -570 0 0 0

Pre-tax profit -1,092 -464 -428 -115

Tax provided -976 -788 -581 -681

Profit after tax -2,068 -1,251 -1,009 -796

Others (Minorities, Associates) 1,323 1,148 587 475

Net Profit -746 -104 -422 -321

Growth, % (142.5) (70.1) 306.5 (23.8)

Unadj. shares (m) 187 187 187 187

Wtd avg shares (m) 187 187 187 187

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Cash & bank 1,765 1,016 1,635 768

Debtors 5,287 4,895 6,060 6,753

Inventory 10,893 12,037 13,984 15,584

Loans & advances 2,333 4,115 4,661 5,195

Other current assets 2,394 3,831 3,831 3,831

Total current assets 22,673 25,895 30,172 32,131

Investments 1,838 1,479 1,479 1,479

Gross fixed assets 95,433 95,255 95,555 95,855

Less: Depreciation -8,999 -11,729 -14,377 -17,303

Add: Capital WIP 37 203 203 203

Net fixed assets 86,471 83,728 81,380 78,754

Total assets 1,11,203 1,11,304 1,13,234 1,12,566

Current liabilities 43,511 43,221 46,518 47,366

Total current liabilities 43,511 43,221 46,518 47,366

Non-current liabilities 44,574 46,517 45,702 44,639

Total liabilities 88,085 89,737 92,220 92,004

Paid-up capital 936 936 936 936

Reserves & surplus 16,137 15,833 15,280 14,828

Shareholders’ equity 23,118 21,566 21,014 20,561

Total equity & liabilities 1,11,203 1,11,304 1,13,234 1,12,566

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Pre-tax profit 231 698 -428 -115

Depreciation 2,688 2,731 3,569 3,668

Chg in working capital -50,115 -4,261 -361 -1,978

Total tax paid -1,098 -768 -581 -681

Cash flow from operating activities -48,295 -1,600 2,199 894

Capital expenditure 37,867 12 -1,221 -1,042

Chg in investments 507 359 0 0

Cash flow from investing activities 38,374 371 -1,221 -1,042

Free cash flow -9,921 -1,229 978 -148

Equity raised/(repaid) 5,262 0 0 0

Debt raised/(repaid) 5,837 1,942 -815 -1,063

Other financing activities -690 -83 0 0

Cash flow from financing activities 11,276 480 -359 -719

Net chg in cash 1,355 -750 620 -867

Valuation Ratios

FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e

Per Share data

EPS (INR) (1.9) (0.5) (2.3) (1.7)

Growth, % (136.1) (74.2) 372.3 (23.8)

Book NAV/share (INR) 91.2 89.6 86.6 84.2

FDEPS (INR) (1.9) (0.5) (2.3) (1.7)

CEPS (INR) 15.6 14.1 16.8 17.9

CFPS (INR) (269.3) (21.3) 4.7 (2.2)

Return ratios Return on assets (%) 3.4 4.4 3.6 3.8

Return on equity (%) (2.0) (0.5) (2.6) (2.0)

Return on capital employed (%) 6.9 7.2 6.1 6.5

Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6

Sales/Total assets (x) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

Sales/Net FA (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5

Working capital days (292.0) (224.7) (192.9) (154.0)

Liquidity ratios

Current ratio (x) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7

Quick ratio (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Interest cover (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Total debt/Equity (x) 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8

Net debt/Equity (x) 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8

Valuation

PER (x) (100.5) (389.8) (82.5) (108.3)

Price/Book (x) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2

EV/Net sales (x) 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 9.0 7.9 7.4

EV/EBIT (x) 11.7 13.0 12.2 11.3

Page 5: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.

Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%

SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

N (TP 136) N (TP 140)

N (TP 139)

N (TP 162)

B (TP 190)

B (TP 210)

B (TP 204)

B (TP 220)

B (TP 220)

B (TP 220)

B (TP 205)

B (TP 205)

N (TP 205)

0

50

100

150

200

250

M-14 J-14 A-14 O-14 D-14 J-15 F-15 A-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 O-15 D-15 J-16 F-16 A-16 J-16 J-16 B (TP 220)

O-16 D-16 J-17 M-17 A-17

Page 6: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 6 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) 2483 1919

Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head – Institutional Equity) (91 22) 6246 4101

Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives) (91 22) 6667 9735

Research Automobiles

IT Services

Pharma & Specialty Chem

Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6246 4128

Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6246 4109

Surya Patra (9122) 6246 4121

Nitesh Sharma, CFA (9122) 6246 4126

Shyamal Dhruve (9122) 6246 4110

Mehul Sheth (9122) 6246 4123

Banking, NBFCs

Infrastructure

Strategy

Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6246 4125

Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6246 4109

Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122

Pradeep Agrawal (9122) 6246 4113

Paresh Jain (9122) 6246 4114

Logistics, Transportation & Midcap

Telecom

Consumer & Retail

Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) 6246 4111

Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122

Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122

Media

Manoj Behera (9122) 6246 4118

Jubil Jain (9122) 6246 4117

Manoj Behera (9122) 6246 4118

Technicals

Preeyam Tolia (9122) 6246 4129

Metals

Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) 6246 4136

Cement

Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6246 4128

Production Manager

Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) 6246 4124

Yash Doshi (9122) 6246 4127

Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) 6667 9966

Economics

Mid-Caps & Database Manager

Editor

Anjali Verma (9122) 6246 4115

Deepak Agarwal (9122) 6246 4112

Roshan Sony 98199 72726

Shruti Bajpai (9122) 6246 4135

Oil & Gas

Sr. Manager – Equities Support

Engineering, Capital Goods

Sabri Hazarika (9122) 6667 9756

Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971

Jonas Bhutta (9122) 6246 4119

Vikram Rawat (9122) 6246 4120

Sales & Distribution

Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) 6246 4105

Sales Trader

Zarine Damania (9122) 6667 9976

Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) 6246 4103

Dilesh Doshi (9122) 6667 9747

Kishor Binwal (9122) 6246 4106

Suniil Pandit (9122) 6667 9745

Bhavin Shah (9122) 6246 4102

Ashka Mehta Gulati (9122) 6246 4108

Execution

Archan Vyas (9122) 6246 4107

Mayur Shah (9122) 6667 9945

Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)

SINGAPORE: Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 RafflesCityTower,

Singapore 179101

Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834

www.phillip.com.sg

MALAYSIA: Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd

B-3-6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II,

No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur

Tel (60) 3 2162 8841 Fax (60) 3 2166 5099

www.poems.com.my

HONG KONG: Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd

11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong

Tel (852) 2277 6600 Fax: (852) 2868 5307

www.phillip.com.hk

JAPAN: Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd

4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku

Tokyo 103-0026

Tel: (81) 3 3666 2101 Fax: (81) 3 3664 0141

www.phillip.co.jp

INDONESIA: PT Phillip Securities Indonesia

ANZTower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A,

Jakarta 10220, Indonesia

Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809

www.phillip.co.id

CHINA: Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.

No 550 Yan An East Road, OceanTower Unit 2318

Shanghai 200 001

Tel (86) 21 5169 9200 Fax: (86) 21 6351 2940

www.phillip.com.cn

THAILAND: Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd.

15th Floor, VorawatBuilding, 849 Silom Road,

Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand

Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921

www.phillip.co.th

FRANCE: King & Shaxson Capital Ltd.

3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance

75008 Paris France

Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017

www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED KINGDOM: King & Shaxson Ltd.

6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street

London, EC4N 6AS

Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835

www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED STATES: Phillip Futures Inc.

141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050

The Chicago Board of TradeBuilding

Chicago, IL 60604 USA

Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005

AUSTRALIA: PhillipCapital Australia

Level 10, 330 Collins Street

Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia

Tel: (61) 3 8633 9800 Fax: (61) 3 8633 9899

www.phillipcapital.com.au

SRI LANKA: Asha Phillip Securities Limited

Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha,

Colombo 2, Sri Lanka

Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199

www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm

INDIA

PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited

No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in

Page 7: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 7 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.

This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., which is regulated by the SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only, and neither the information contained herein, nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment, or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

This report does not regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax, and financial advisors and reach their own conclusions regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned within it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which PCIL believe is reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice.

Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request.

Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst(s) have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report.

Additional Disclosures of Interest: Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below: 1. The Research Analyst(s), PCIL, or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in

this report. 2. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the

company (ies)covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report. 3. The Research Analyst, his/her associate, his/her relative, and PCIL, do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this

research report. 4. The Research Analyst, PCIL, and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for

any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for

the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. PCIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in

connection with the research report. 7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director, or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report. 8. The Research Analyst and PCIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report. 9. Details of PCIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report:

Sr. no. Particulars Yes/No

1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by PCIL

No

2 Whether Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report

No

3 Whether compensation has been received by PCIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No

4 PCIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the Research report

No

5 Research Analyst, his associate, PCIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months

No

Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it, or its affiliates/employees, may have positions in, purchase or sell, or be materially interested in any of the securities covered in the report.

Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic, or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results.

Page 8: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Ashoka Buildcon ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC...(1) change in intangible assets/liabilities created for rescheduled premium

Page | 8 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASHOKA BUILDCON QUARTERLY UPDATE

Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material, and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall PCIL, any of its affiliates/employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage, however arising, from the use of this document.

Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety.

Caution: Risk of loss in trading/investment can be substantial and even more than the amount / margin given by you. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, you are requested to read all the related documents carefully before investing. You should carefully consider whether trading/investment is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, group entities, or affiliates shall not be liable for losses, if any, incurred by you. You are further cautioned that trading/investments in financial markets are subject to market risks and are advised to seek independent third party trading/investment advice outside PhillipCapital/group/associates/affiliates/directors/employees before and during your trading/investment. There is no guarantee/assurance as to returns or profits or capital protection or appreciation. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, and/or employees, directors, associates of PhillipCapital’s group entities or affiliates is not inducing you for trading/investing in the financial market(s). Trading/Investment decision is your sole responsibility. You must also read the Risk Disclosure Document and Do’s and Don’ts before investing.

Kindly note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

For Detailed Disclaimer: Please visit our website www.phillipcapital.in

For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S.-regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated, and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not a Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain

business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Decker & Co, LLC. Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Decker & Co, LLC or another U.S. registered broker dealer.

If Distribution is to Australian Investors This report is produced by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd and is being distributed in Australia by Phillip Capital Limited (Australian Financial Services Licence No. 246827).

This report contains general securities advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, situation and needs. Please read the Disclosures and Disclaimers set out above. By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out above. Any failure to comply with

these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013