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NASA Heat Map Scenario
2100
CJ Reynolds
Hannah Torres Ph.D.
Broward County Climate Change Task Force
May 18, 2017
Insights about Adaptation, Public Finance and Referenda from the METROPOLE Research Project
What We’ll Cover
• The METROPOLE project
• Highlights and insights about acceptability of public finance mechanisms and infrastructure/adaptation options
• What this means for local government – planning, engagement & communications
METROPOLE was created to understand
potential barriers to adaptation
How values and perceptions shape
decision making about
what adaptation needs to be done, and when,
and how do we want pay for it?
METROPOLEAn Integrated Framework to Analyze Local
Decision Making and Adaptive Capacity to Large-Scale Environmental Change
PROJECT FUNDERS
The Team
Brazil CO-I Dr. Jose Marengo (CEMADEN)
Dr. Lucí Hidalgo Nunes, Dr. Roberto Greco, Fabiano de A. Moreira (IG/UNICAMP)
Dr. Luiz Aragão , Dr. Sin Chan Chou, Lincoln Alves (INPE)
Dr. Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza (IG/SMA)
Dr. Joseph Harari (IO/USP)
Eduardo Kimoto Hosokawa, Ernesto Tabuchi(Municipal de Santos)
Graziella Soares Ribeiro Rodrigues (Fundação Santo André)
UK CO-I Dr. Mark Pelling (Kings College London)
Dr. Shona Paterson (Future Earth Coasts)
Kristen Guida (London Climate Change Partnership)
USA PROJECT PI Dr. Frank Muller-Karger (USF)
CJ Reynolds, Dr. Karen Langbehn, Hannah Torres (USF)
CO-I Dr. Sam Merrill, JT Lockman, Alex Gray (GEI Consultants)
Dr. Jack Kartez, (New England Environmental Finance Center)
Alex Magee (American Planning Association-Florida)
Santos, BRAZILBroward County, FL US
Selsey, UK
The Partners
COAST Vulnerability Assessments &
Scenarios
Interviews with Decision-Makers
The Process
Understand values, perceptions & conditions that influence adaptation planning and institutional
capacity
Pre/Post Workshop Surveys
Two Interactive Workshops per
Community7
The Participants
Local officials, government staff, organization & neighborhood
leaders, technical experts
Demographics: College ed., HH income above median (US/BR), mix of political affiliations, gender, age 21-65
BRUS
Attendees US UK BR
Workshop 1 50 22 36
Workshop 2 20 11 21
UK
Now 25 Years10 Years 100 Years
Never Unsure
Survey Findings -- Adaptation Priorities
Time Options
12-16 Prototypical
Adaptation Options
• Same top 5 in each country – land use policy, green
• Super majority: Local Gov. should Act NOW or 10 Years
• “Green to Gray” adaptation action time continuum
• Major engineering projects – push to future
• Voluntary buy-outs – lowest priority
Public Finance PerspectivesPolitical Affiliation, Gender and Age
Survey – Different Finance Mechanism Acceptability Scale 1 to 5
Create low-interest loan program for flood proofing and elevating
residences
Develop special district assessment on properties in areas designated
highly vulnerable
Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance public infrastructure
improvements
Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based on property taxes
Add flood resiliency surcharge on monthly water utility bill (ex: stormwater
drain improvements)
Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½ cent or 1 cent per dollar)
Public Finance - Broward Workshop 1
MechanismsAcceptability Scale 1-5 (n=48)%
Not
%
Somewhat
%
Moderately
%
Highly
%
Totally
Mean
Score
Create low-interest loan program for flood
proofing and elevating residences4.2 10.4 20.8 35.4 29.1 3.75
Develop special district assessment on
properties in areas designated highly vulnerable10.4 12.5 29.2 18.8 29.2 3.48
Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance
public infrastructure improvements8.3 25.0 20.8 14.6 31.3 3.35
Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based
on property taxes18.8 12.5 31.3 16.7 20.8 3.08
Add a flood resiliency surcharge on monthly
water utility bill (ex: specific to storm water drain
improvements)
31.2 20.8 10.4 16.7 20.8 2.75
Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½
cent or 1 cent per dollar)33.3 22.9 18.8 10.4 14.6 2.50
Public Finance - Broward Workshop 1
MechanismsAcceptability Scale 1-5 (n=48)%
Not
%
Somewhat
%
Moderately
%
Highly
%
Totally
Mean
Score
Create low-interest loan program for flood
proofing and elevating residences4.2 10.4 20.8 35.4 29.1 3.75
Develop special district assessment on
properties in areas designated highly vulnerable10.4 12.5 29.2 18.8 29.2 3.48
Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance
public infrastructure improvements8.3 25.0 20.8 14.6 31.3 3.35
Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based
on property taxes18.8 12.5 31.3 16.7 20.8 3.08
Add a flood resiliency surcharge on monthly
water utility bill (ex: specific to storm water drain
improvements)
31.2 20.8 10.4 16.7 20.8 2.75
Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½
cent or 1 cent per dollar)33.3 22.9 18.8 10.4 14.6 2.50
Public Finance - Broward Workshop 1
MechanismsAcceptability Scale 1-5 (n=48)%
Not
%
Somewhat
%
Moderately
%
Highly
%
Totally
Mean
Score
Create low-interest loan program for flood
proofing and elevating residences4.2 10.4 20.8 35.4 29.1 3.75
Develop special district assessment on
properties in areas designated highly vulnerable10.4 12.5 29.2 18.8 29.2 3.48
Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance
public infrastructure improvements8.3 25.0 20.8 14.6 31.3 3.35
Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based
on property taxes18.8 12.5 31.3 16.7 20.8 3.08
Add a flood resiliency surcharge on monthly
water utility bill (ex: specific to storm water drain
improvements)
31.2 20.8 10.4 16.7 20.8 2.75
Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½
cent or 1 cent per dollar)33.3 22.9 18.8 10.4 14.6 2.50
More
Acceptable
Less
Acceptable
US UK BR
Special district assessment Special district assessment Special district assessment
Low-interest loans for flood
proofing/elevationTown-wide defense fund Issue bonds
Issue bonds Public-private partnershipLow-interest loans for flood
proofing/elevation
County-wide resilience fund
based on property taxes
Low-interest loans for flood
proofing
County-wide resilience
fund based on property
taxes
Surcharge on water bill
Raise sales tax
Issue bonds
Surcharge on water bill
Raise sales tax
(Returning Participants)
All Countries Post-Workshop 2Finance Mechanism Acceptability
Finance Mechanism Acceptability by Political Affiliation (U.S.)Consensus: Higher ratings for targeted fees, lower ratings for community-
wide mechanisms (e.g. sales tax, utility surcharge)
• Low Interest Loans and Long-Term Bonds rated #1 and #2, respectively,
by Republicans, Democrats and Independents
• Special District Assessments: Tied #1 for Independents, ranked #3 for
Democrats
However – mechanism scores vary by party:
• Democrats 2.8 to 4.2
• Independents 2.3 to 3.6
• Republicans 2.2 to 3.2
Finance by Gender and Age (U.S.)
Interesting findings
• More age 65+ chose TOTALLY acceptable
than expected
• More women (21-34, 35-54, 65+) rated all
mechanisms TOTALLY acceptable, than
men in same age groups
• Age group 55-64 was different
• More men chose TOTALLY for all mechanisms
• More women chose NOT
Specific Mechanisms
Two notable differences
• Sales tax
• More men in 21-34, 35-54, 65+ rated NOT acceptable
• 52% men v. 12% of women chose NOT acceptable
• Again – 55-64 group is different: 60% women and 0% men chose NOT
acceptable
• Property tax
• All ages – twice as many women rated NOT acceptable than men (26%
v. 12% men)
Broward Referendum Question
“If a referendum was put on 2016 ballot to create a Community
Resiliency Bond (a long-term loan) that would generate $100
million by 2036 to support multiple adaptation projects, how likely
would you be to vote for it?”
• 48% “Would Vote for It”
• 21% “Very Likely”
• 8% “Moderately Likely” and 13% “Somewhat Likely”
• 10 % “Would Not Vote for It”
What Does this Mean for Local Government –Planning, Engagement and Communications
Discretionary Sales Tax for Infrastructure Referenda in Florida(Reviewed Public Land Trust report, Florida Department of Revenue History of Local Sales Tax and Current Rates report, Jan. 2017)
• 24 of 67 counties have half-penny or 1 cent sales tax for infrastructure.
• Median term is 10 years (3-15 year range.)
• Six counties (Indian River, Lake, Marion, Putnam, Santa Rosa and Wakulla) were re-approved in 2016 – extended 3, 5,10 and 15 years.
• Brevard and Palm Beach counties' citizens approved NEW half-penny and 1 cent infrastructure tax for 10 years.
Study Highlights
When it comes to adaptation, people in coastal communities want
• government to plan/take action – now / 10 years
• nature-based solutions, green technologies and policies to avoid more risk and costs in vulnerable areas
• major infrastructure / engineering solutions – when necessary
• costs, taxes and fees that are FAIR (i.e. specific to risk & user) are more acceptable than “general fees”
Ex: Post Workshop 2, Selsey priority sea wall increased
Workshops increased awareness of local risks, future conditions and financial
needs and policy limits/need for change
Inspired community and civic action in Brazil and UK – because it was new
Other Study Outcomes
Insights for Planning• Timeframes – influenced by roles, social norms and cognitive factors –
inability to visualize future beyond 10-15 years, "future discounting."
• Fairness – risk, use, benefits and “who pays” – inherent human concern.
• Nature-based, green technology and land-use policies appeal to
everyone – co-benefits and resonate with different values.
• Programs to support “common sense” engineering and finance policies.
Empower (or require) individuals and businesses to implement improvements
and link benefits and financial responsibility.
• Big infrastructure – Uncertainty about scale, incomplete risks/costs, and
concerns about quality of life.
Planning & Engagement Outreach
Communications needs
• Education about financial tools and needs.
• Adaption solutions and length of effectiveness.
• Perceptions of fairness and define social & economic benefits of
improvements of general fees.
• Everything in context of timeframes -- 3, 5 and 10 years
• Create good visuals to show
• Prospective impacts, improvements and future positive outcomes
• Budgets, budget gaps and future investments
• Use digital tools and social media to communicate and engage
Engage your Community – especially Millennials
• 79 million in the US, (18-33 in 2017)
• 34% bachelor’s or advanced degree
• Want to co-create and collaborate
• Dominant in social media, but seek experiences
• Receptive to cultural and social change
Thank you
METROPOLE Researchers Jack Kartez, Sam Merrill
Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanisms: New Frontiers For Familiar Tools,
Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics
http://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol3/iss2/4/
METROPOLE Project Site
http://metropole.marine.usf.edu/
