Innovation in Sustainable Societies - Roberto Peccei

7/31/2019 Innovation in Sustainable Societies - Roberto Peccei

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Innovation in Sustainable

Societies

Roberto Peccei

UCLA and Club of Rome


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Innovation in Sustainable Societies

The Role of Universities in Innovation

Patterns of Innovation

Innovation for Sustainability- Energy challenges

- Economics challenges


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The Role of Universities in Innovation

If you analyze regions in the US which havebecome engines of economic development,they have two characteristics in common:

i. They all had, at the beginning, available landthat could be developed or redeveloped

ii. One or more research universities were

easily accessible in the region and could actas innovation catalysts


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Some examples include:

Silicon Valley: Stanford, UCB and UCSF

Research Triangle: Duke, UNC and NC StateRoute 128: Harvard and MIT

San Diego Corridor: UCSD

Will focus on the California examples, because I knowthese best, but similar lessons can be gleaned alsoelsewhere (and not only in the US)

California universities are at the forefront in the world

[Figure] and have been the engines that have helpeddrive its economy. Their role is two-fold:

i. They are the source of continuous innovation

ii. They help prepare a technically competent workforce


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What have been the important characteristics whichhave helped Californias universities become innovation

engines?

i. They have been the beneficiary of a long period ofenlightened public and private financial support [welldirected investment]

ii. They have both being able to attract great scholars totheir midst [ success begets success] as well as growtheir own [nurture the young]

iii. They operate guided by a brutal, but effective,

meritocracy, which encourages students , postdocsand faculty to pursue their ideas in total freedom[merit and equality are paramount]


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Two other external factors have been important tomake California universities engines for innovation;

i. The 1980 Bayh Dole Act requires universities to

transfer out inventions developed as a result ofFederal funding. California, with 10% of populationreceives 15% of Federal funds, so it transfers out moreinventions than other States

ii. Through the years an entrepreneurial ecology hasgrown around California universities, where it isnatural for venture capital managers to be on

campuses and where student and postdocs aretreated as equals to professors in regards to royaltiesfrom inventions


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ii. A second ingredient which has been essential to

foster Californias entrepreneurial atmosphere and

which has been a key to its success is the acceptanceof failure. One cannot really push truly novel ideas

forward unless one is prepared to accept the

possibility of failure. Fear of failure is often a real

hindrance to success. A truism of California is that,although you will be acclaimed for your successes,

nobody will really care, or will punish you, for your

failures. Indeed, in certain VC circles, if you neverflamed out in one of your commercial endeavors

you might be looked upon with some degree of

apprehension!


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Patterns of Innovation

Major breakthroughs, which start whole newindustries (ICT; Biotech; Nanotech; Social Media:etc) have characteristic patterns

One of the most useful indicators is thepublication pattern of leaders in a given field(stars) and the frequency of start-ups

There is an interesting time lag between when

leading scientists (stars), new companies, andother scientists (collaborators) enter into the field

Typically t 2 years, but there is always a veryslow start-up period start > 10 years [ Figure]


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These innovation patterns raise interestingquestions:

i. Is there a way to shorten start ?

ii. When is a new industry established?

iii. Can new industries grow out of old industries,or must old industries die off? [Contrast

lifetimes of cities with that of companies]iv. Is there a way to jump start this process by

government investment? [ Record is mixed wheninvestment is targeted (e.g. War on Cancer in US),but much better if investment is broad-based(e.g. BRIC countries)]


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Innovation for Sustainability

In my view, there are two different types ofchallenges which we need to overcome to build asustainable society in the future:

- Physical challenges (energy supply; conservation of

natural resources, food security, etc.)- Social challenges (peace, elimination of poverty,

sustainable economies, etc.)

We will need many innovative ideas for both types of

challenges to make any progress towardssustainability

Will illustrate this briefly with examples from energy

and economics


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Energy Challenges

Worldwide we consume about 550 ExaJoules (EJ) (1018Joules) of energy per year and it is likely we willconsume 1000 EJ= 1 ZettaJoule in 2050

About 85% of this energy comes from fossil fuels (oil,natural gas and coal)

The challenges we face are twofold:

i. We still must find more energy in the future (evenafter having increased energy consumption by afactor of 30 in 200 years!)

ii. We need to change the energy mix towardsrenewables, to prevent CO2 build-up


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Both challenges are formidable


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Innovation in renewable energy is ongoing

worldwide, but still in early phase of growth

Projections from EIA for renewables are in 150 EJ

ran e for 2050 rather than in desired 500 EJ ran e


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Very difficult to see how to ameliorate the situation:

i. Much basic research still needs to be done [e.g.efficient thin-film photovoltaics; 3rd generationbiofuels, etc] and there appears to be no silverbullet in the energy front

ii. Still relatively small government investment across

the globe, distributed along different technologies[US: research $ energy/health < 1/5 ]

iii. Energy companies are not investing enough inrenewable energy opportunities [ new industries

do not grow out of old industries]

Proper carbon tax, with funds directed towardsenergy research, would be of great help


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Economics Challenges

It can be argued that present market driveneconomics is ill suited for a society which aspiresto be sustainable

Focus on growth and consumption, resulting

from unconstrained market forces, drives societytowards an unsustainable economy, wherenatural capital is consumed at a greater thanreplacement rate

By treating the value of natural capital and thecosts to society of workforce reductions asexternalities, the present economic paradigmdistorts societal values


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Including externalities, often what is judged by themarket as economic growth, in reality is un-economic

What is needed for a sustainable society is a newpeople centric economic paradigm whose goal is thepreservation of the commons rather than the

enrichment of a few. The task at hand here is also formidable and requires

much innovation

- Can one devise a coherent and consistent economics of

sustainability?- If so, given the vested interests in the old marketeconomics, how does one begin in society to effect atransition to this new economics of sustainability?

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Innovation in Sustainable Societies - Roberto Peccei