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Model developed for The Nature Conservancy
Infrastructure Investment to Promote Forest Restoration and Mitigate Fire Risk in Washington’s East Cascades
WFE 2018 Tom Baribault (M), Mark Rasmussen (M), Aaron Paul (T)
Problem Statement
Washington: 2.2 million acres burned 2012-2015
Wildfire risk mitigated by restoration treatments
The Nature Conservancy: combine restoration and industry /
economic objectives
Infrastructure investment to promote forest conservation
Regional Wildfire Impact
2008-2018 wildfires
Perspectives
Conservation perspective # Acres Costs
($/acre)Yields (Mbf,
$/acre) Returns, risk
Conservation
Collaboratives
Investors
TNC stakeholder positions
Model Objectives
1. How much volume is there on the landscape?
2. How much of (1) is:
i. legally available?
ii. practically available?
iii. already allocated?
3. Supply available under what conditions—source ownership, transport cost, stumpage value, mill destinations?
4. Adequate to support facility with 105 MMbf annual capacity?
Model StructureIn place
InventoryUSFS FIA
LEMMASilvicultural
Rx
USFSWA DNR, DFWTNC
Land Allocations
USFSNSO NRF, DispPhysical
Travel Cost AccessibilityMill locations
Cutout valuation
WA DNRLogging costs
Forestry
GeospatialEconomic
Synthesis
Restoration Scenarios TNC
ForestEconomics
Module
Geospatial Module
Combined Model
Eligible AreaTreated Area
Potential MbfScenario Mbf
Demand balance for existing millsSupply for new infrastructure
Model Inputs & Assumptions
Forestry: inventory accuracy & resolution, growth model suitability
Economic: current log prices, log price forecast, logging & haul costs, landowner interest in harvest
Geospatial: ownership, logging system, legal & land use exclusions, road proximity, haul route optimization, hexagon aggregates
Industrial: species & log preferences, mill longevity, stated regional demand, apportioning
Scenarios: status quo, restoration needs, complete
Land Allocations
OwnershipForest typeWatershed
Wildfire Impacts
Travel Time
Process DiagramForest Composition Cell Haul costs to facility Facility competitive zones
Model Summary
Required to:Assign value to every eligible allocation x forest typeCalculate logging and haul costs, timber yieldsApportion volume to existing and/or new mill infrastructure
Outside scope: Build stands or serve as a forest management toolHarvest individual stands or areas, optimize volume flowsAccommodate privately negotiated exchange among millsQuantify uncertainty in growth/inventory, or propagate uncertainty
Vocabulary
Scenario: restoration intensity
Case: location of infrastructureCase 0: No new facility
Cases 1-6: New facility of 105 MMbf annual capacity at 6 possible locations
Treatment: acres restored within a scenario-case combination
Stumpage: Delivered Price – (Logging Cost + Haul Cost)
Scenario Definitions
Scenario 1: status quo
Harvest levels reflect last 5 years, ~130 MMbf / year
Source primarily private, Tribal land; limited public land
Scenario 2: TNC restoration needs assessmentRestoration objective of 800,000 to 900,000 acres
Source primarily USFS, WA DNR land via stewardship contracts
Scenario 3: complete restoration treatment across study region
Highlighted OutputsSpecies and log size classes
4 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 16 16+ DFW no owls 9,358,439 12,754,673 106,377 - DNR dispersal 83,332 3,977 - - DNR HCP 14,065,922 21,358,394 766,791 - DNR CF no owl 112,489 169,638 11,800 - DNR NRF 503,642 958,146 4,265 - DNR FC owl 86,665 167,326 143 - Oth. Federal 6,673,505 12,660,362 3,093,419 749,424 Private 27,134,876 86,936,366 32,396,060 6,866,529 Tribal Colville 17,990,992 94,639,096 53,787,173 13,424,132 Tribal Yakama 24,194,223 147,161,889 99,502,389 23,156,550 USFS low int 7,221,971 6,729,845 56,793 - USFS high int 17,227,311 23,116,233 5,068,334 1,824,921
Ownership Scenario 1
DFWL
Highlighted OutputsImpact on existing forest industry
Delivered Logging Haul StumpageYakama FP 370.88$ 131.22$ 57.22$ 182.44$ Vaagen Col. 395.34$ 138.54$ 85.18$ 171.62$ New Mill 379.42$ 149.70$ 46.43$ 183.30$ Boise KF 387.42$ 167.94$ 138.08$ 81.39$ Hampton Dar. 383.30$ 152.97$ 122.02$ 108.31$ Hampton R. 383.53$ 133.67$ 77.61$ 172.25$ Boise OR, PR 305.36$ 151.58$ 152.34$ 1.43$ Boise KF 304.06$ 134.02$ 105.39$ 64.65$ Zosel LC. 367.84$ 144.40$ 44.76$ 178.68$ Columbia RC. 747.89$ 140.69$ 174.28$ 432.92$
Price or cost / MBFDestination Mill Sc2 Case 5
Stumpage priceadvantage
Expanded capacityCompetitionfor volume
Highlighted OutputsImpact on existing forest industry
Yakama Forest Products
New Mill
Vaagen Bros. Colville
Highlighted OutputsAcres treated by scenario, Rx
MMBF MMBF/yr LoadsNone 616,196.2 2,841.8 142.1 568,364 Omak 781,879.2 4,789.8 239.5 957,967 Leavenworth 798,005.2 4,805.6 240.3 961,124 Wenatchee 797,182.7 4,799.4 240.0 959,876 Cle Elum 799,962.2 4,801.7 240.1 960,345 Ellensburg 799,068.9 4,802.4 240.1 960,472 Chelan 790,207.6 4,782.1 239.1 956,416
New Mill Location
Treated AcresHauled Volume
S1: no restoration advantage
S2: 165,000 acre advantage
Highlighted OutputsSupporting accelerated restoration pace
Delivered Logging Haul StumpageNone 1,073.8$ 422.2$ 268.0$ 383.6$ Omak 1,811.1$ 723.9$ 459.0$ 628.2$ Leavenworth 1,823.3$ 716.6$ 375.0$ 731.7$ Wenatchee 1,819.9$ 718.7$ 390.1$ 711.1$ Cle Elum 1,823.5$ 713.0$ 362.5$ 748.0$ Ellensburg 1,823.7$ 712.4$ 362.0$ 749.3$ Chelan 1,811.1$ 723.2$ 421.0$ 666.9$
New Mill Location, S2
Price or cost, $US million
S1: up to $68 million advantage
S1: up to $366 million advantage
Highlighted OutputsOptimizing facility placement
Delivered Logging Haul StumpageNone 1,570.4$ 614.0$ 363.2$ 593.2$ Omak 2,287.0$ 938.5$ 477.8$ 870.7$ Leavenworth 2,281.1$ 915.5$ 400.8$ 964.8$ Wenatchee 2,266.4$ 907.2$ 409.7$ 949.5$ Cle Elum 2,294.0$ 909.7$ 394.4$ 989.8$ Ellensburg 2,270.0$ 891.9$ 394.7$ 983.4$ Chelan 2,263.9$ 919.8$ 434.1$ 910.0$
New Mill Location
Price or cost, $US million
Delivered Logging Haul StumpageNone 363.43$ 142.09$ 84.06$ 137.27$ Omak 370.22$ 151.93$ 77.35$ 140.94$ Leavenworth 370.77$ 148.80$ 65.15$ 156.82$ Wenatchee 370.70$ 148.38$ 67.02$ 155.30$ Cle Elum 370.81$ 147.05$ 63.76$ 160.00$ Ellensburg 370.68$ 145.65$ 64.44$ 160.58$ Chelan 370.57$ 150.56$ 71.06$ 148.95$
New Mill Location
Price or cost $ / MBF
(Scenario 2)
Δ $23/Mbf stumpage advantageΔ $21/Mbf haul cost advantage
Highlighted OutputsValue of cutout
(Scenario 2)
Negative Stumpage:Scenario 2 Case 3
Highlighted Outputs
Conclusions
New infrastructure supports:
• Restoration: 550,000 acres reduced wildfire risk
• Volume: 2,200 MMbf additional harvest
Example pilot project: A-Z Stewardship Contract, USFS (Colville NF), Vaagen Brothers
Model suggests adequate accessible-available-legal inventory to support facility, meet supply requirements set by investor groups
Acknowledgements
The Nature Conservancy: Commissioned study
LEMMA/GNN: Provided treelists
USFS: Provided input on Rx, allocations
WA DNR: Provided input on Rx, allocations
The Beck Group: Regional mill species preferences