INFO 7470/ECON 7400/ILRLE 7400 Measuring Business and Economic Activity John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber with contributions by Jim Davis, Brent Moulton

INFO 7470/ECON 7400/ILRLE 7400 Measuring Business and

Economic Activity

John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber with contributions by Jim Davis, Brent Moulton

and Wayne GrayFebruary 18, 2013

INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution

2

Outline

• Structure of the economic statistics in the U.S.• The National Income and Product Accounts• Industry and Product Classification• Input/Output Tables• The Economic Census• The Business Register• Economic Surveys

2/18/2013


3

Economic Statistics in the U.S.

Department of Commerce• Economics and Statistics

Administration– Census Bureau

• Economic Censuses• Annual, Quarterly, Monthly

Surveys of Sectors and Indicators• NAICS, NAPCS

– Bureau of Economic Analysis• Inputs from Census + BLS + Fed

+ many other sources• National accounts, International

trade, Regional accounts, Industry accounts, Financial accounts, Integrated accounts

Department of Labor• Bureau of Labor Statistics

– Wage, salary, compensation, prices, productivity

2/18/2013


4

What are the National Accounts?• One of the most watched sets of statistics worldwide• Standards developed by many national statistical agencies• Simon Kuznets was awarded the 1971 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his

development of national income accounting http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1971/

• The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) are a set of economic accounts that track economic flows within the U.S. economy

• Two key NIPA measures are:– Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Measures the total value of goods and services produced

within the U.S. in a period– Gross Domestic Income (GDI): Measures the incomes earned and the costs incurred in

producing those goods and services

• http://bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf

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http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1971/

http://bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf


5

The Circular Flow

Households Businesses

Goods and services

Labor

Income

Expenditures

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NIPA Seven-account Summary

• Domestic Income and Product Account • Private Enterprise Income Account• Personal Income and Outlay Account• Government Receipts and Expenditures

Account• Foreign Transactions Current Account• Domestic Capital Account• Foreign Transactions Capital Account

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GDP As Value Added

• Value added is measured as: Output less intermediate consumption Both measured at market prices

• Example: Wheat to flour to bread to you– GDP is value of bread– Equals sum of value added of farmer, miller, baker, grocery

store• GDP– Sum of industry value added– Also equals sum of final expenditures– Also equals sum of income earned in production

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Detail of Bread Example

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Intermediate Product Income Sales Value Added

Farmer, wheat 0 1 1 1Miller, flour 1 2 3 2Baker, bread 3 4 7 4Supermarket 7 2 9 2

TOTAL 11 9 20 9

GDP Final sales to consumers 9 Product side Income 9 Income side Value added 9 Value added


9

Account 1: Domestic Income and Product

Personal consumption expenditures

Gross private domestic investment

Net exports of goods and services

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment

Compensation of employees, paid

Taxes on production and imports

Less: Subsidies

Net operating surplus

Consumption of fixed capital

Gross Domestic Income Gross Domestic Product

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10

Expenditure components of GDP (2012)

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

= GDPConsumption Investment Government Exports less: Imports

70.5%

13.2%19.6%

13.9%

-17.2%

Components of GDP (2012:III)

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Account 1: Domestic Income and ProductPersonal consumption expenditures




Compensation of employees, paid Taxes on production and imports Less: Subsidies Net operating surplus Consumption of fixed capital

Gross domestic income

Statistical discrepancy

Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product

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12

Income Components of GDP (2012)

= GDPCompen

sation of e

mployees,

paid

Taxe

s on pro

duction an

d imports

less: S

ubsidies

Net opera

tion surp

lus

Consumption of fi

xed ca

pital

Statisti

cal Disc

repan

cy

54.3%

7.1%

-0.4%

25.3%

12.8%

0.9%

GDP: Income Side (2012:III)

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13

Account 1: Value Added EquivalencePersonal consumption expenditures




Value added by business

Value added by households and institutions

Value added by government

Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product

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14

Value Added Components of GDP (2012)

= GDPBusiness Households and Institutions Government

75.9%

12.2% 11.9%

GDP: Value Added (2012:III)

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15

Features of national accounts

• Inflation-adjusted (“real” GDP)

• Quarterly frequency

• Seasonally adjusted

• Annualized

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16

Estimation Cycle

• “Advance” estimates are released about 31/2

weeks after a calendar quarter concludes

• “Preliminary” and “final” estimates are released 30 and 60 days after the advance

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Annual Revisions and Benchmarking

• “Annual revisions” are released in July of non-comprehensive revision years

• “Comprehensive revisions” occur about every 4-5 years (most recent: 2010)

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Featured Measures• Real GDP growth, as indicated by the percent change in the

chain-type quantity index

• Contributions to real GDP growth reflect the role that individual components of GDP play in producing the growth in GDP

• Gross domestic purchases price index (and personal consumption expenditures price index)—inflation measures that reflect prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents

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Other Important GDP-related Measures

• Current-dollar GDP represents the value of production at a point in time

• GDP percentage shares provide a measure of the size and importance of a component

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Chained-Dollar GDP

• Chained-dollar GDP is the product of current-dollar GDP in the reference year and the GDP quantity index (divided by 100)

• Chained-dollar components do not add to the total

• See “Chained-Dollar Indexes” from the November 2003 Survey of Current Business

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NBER RecessionsReal GDP growth

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http://www.bea.gov/


23

Source Data: Economic Census

• Primary source data for benchmark input-output accounts– Estimates supply of products by industry and use

of products by industry and final expenditures– Critical because it provides details necessary to

separate intermediate consumption from final expenditures

http://www.bea.gov/industry/io_annual.htm

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24

Annual Survey Source Data

• Annual Retail Trade Survey– Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods;

inventories• Services Annual Survey – PCE services• Annual Survey of Manufactures– Investment in equipment; inventories

• Value of construction put in place – structures• Annual Trade Survey – inventories• Foreign trade data• Government Finances Survey2/18/2013


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Example: Equipment Investment

“Commodity flow” method:• ASM data on shipments of detailed durable goods

product categories• Subtract those going to intermediate uses• Add imports: “domestic supply”• Subtract goods going to exports, government, PCE• Add margins• Result is estimate of private investment in

equipment

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Example: Retail Trade

• Sales by retail industry• Merchandise lines (products) data by industry

from last economic census• Estimate products, controlling the total to

total retail sales for categories selling primarily to consumers

• Deflate using detailed CPIs• Result is estimate of PCE for goods

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Quarterly Source Data

Census indicator surveys:• Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders (M3): shipments and inventories for equipment investment, manufacturing inventories

• Monthly retail trade for PCE goods, retail inventories

• Wholesale trade inventories• Value put in place for structures• Foreign trade data

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Data Issues

• Business births may not be promptly captured or included in samples.

• Non-participation in voluntary surveys may be problem – Economic Census is mandatory– Annual, quarterly and monthly surveys are not

• Respondents may not follow instructions.– Example: may report worldwide shipments or

inventories2/18/2013


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Diagnosing Data Problems

• Statistical discrepancy is high level indicator of problems

• Monitor revisions: persistent large revisions or revisions in the same direction

• Research on data issues

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The Economic Census and Business Register

• Overview of provenance• Economic Census• Methods• Classifications• Business Register• Record structure• Identifiers• Creating establishment analysis files• Creating Company (Alpha) Files• Using bridges to other data2/18/2013


312/18/2013


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Economic Census (EC) 2012

• Target population– Employer and non-employer establishments in

covered industries (essentially everything except agriculture and government)

• Methods– Large employers and a sample of small employers

covered by mail questionnaire– Remaining establishments estimated from

administrative records (mostly tax returns)

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Methods for the Economic Census

• The EC is a mandatory survey of business establishments

• Because sampling is used for small entities in all industries, it is not technically an enumeration

• Main objective is to capture information needed to measure business volume (sales) and operations in detail that permits– Frame updating for the Business Register and business

sampling frames– Intermediate goods consumption in support of value added

concepts for the national accounts2/18/2013


34

Economic Activity Classifications

• North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/

– Updated for each Census since 1997 (2002, 2007, 2012)– Jointly maintained by the U.S. Economic Classification Policy

Committee (OMB, BEA, BLS, Census)– Main classification system for economic activity– Sectors, Sub-sectors (3-digits), Industry groups (4-digits), Industry

(5-digits), Country-specific codes for U.S., Canada, Mexico (6-digits)• North American Product Classification System

– Within each NAICS classifies the products produced in trilateral (all three countries) or country-specific

– Still in development

2/18/2013

http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/

INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 35

Economic Census Files in RDC

* Not in RDC data warehouse** Included in Services*** 2012 in the fieldhttps://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html

Industry19631967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

CMI Mining X X X X X ***CCN Construction X X X X X X X X ***CMF Manufacturing X X X X X X X X X ***CUT Transportation

and Utilities X X X X X ***

CWH Wholesale X X X X X X X ***CRT Retail X X X X X X X ***CFI Finance,

Insurance and Real Estate

X X X X ***

CSR Services X X X X X X X ***AUX Auxiliaries X X X X X ** ** **

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https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html


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Questionnaires and Procedures• 1997 Economic Census forms

http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/ec97form.html• 2002 and 2007 Economic Census forms

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/pages/formarchive.html • 2012 Economic Census forms

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/php/census-form.php • History of the 1997 Economic Census

http://www.census.gov/prod/ec97/pol00-hec.pdf• Procedural history of the 2002 Economic Census

http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/ec02-00r-hist.pdf• History and archive of the 2007 Economic Census

http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/history.html • Operational guide to the 2012 Economic Census

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/index.html

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http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/ec97form.html

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/pages/formarchive.html

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/php/census-form.php

http://www.census.gov/prod/ec97/pol00-hec.pdf

http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/ec02-00r-hist.pdf

http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/history.html

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/index.html


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Employer Business Register (BR)

• Target Population:– Employer establishments in the same industries as

are covered by the Economic Census• Methods:– Continuously updated database of establishments

divided into multi-unit and single-unit businesses

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Maintenance of the BR

• Businesses are classified based on whether or not they have multiple establishments as of the last Economic Census (MU and SU, resp.)

• Currently approximately 160,000 MU companies with 1.8 million affiliated establishments; 5 million SU establishments; 21 million non-employer businesses

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Maintenance of the BR II

• Known MU companies surveyed in the Report of Organization Survey to update structure between Economic Censuses

• “Discovered” MU companies (respondents to surveys) added to ROS frame between censuses

• Weekly updates by Employer Identification Number from business income tax returns and information reports– SU: used directly– MU: allocated based on information from the ROS

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Record Structure

• Economic Census– All establishments whether from mail

questionnaire or administrative record– Separate files for Construction, Manufactures,

Mining, Retail Trade, Services, (Transportation, Communications, and Utilities), Wholesale Trade

– Example files are from Census of Manufactures

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Record Structure

• Employer Business Register Single-units (SU)– One record for each single unit establishment– One record, called a submaster, for each multiunit

company

• Employer Business Register Multi-units (MU)– One record for each establishment for each multi-unit– Report of Organization Survey http://

bhs.econ.census.gov/2002forms/nc99002.pdf (2002) http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/cos/form.html (most recent)

2/18/2013

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/2002forms/nc99002.pdf

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/2002forms/nc99002.pdf

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/cos/form.html


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Identifiers

• Entity Identifiers– Census File Number (CFN)– Employer Identification Number (EC: EI; BR: EIN)– Permanent Plant Number (PPN)– LBD number (LBDNUM) (LBD-version specific)– Census Alpha (EC: EIALPHA; BR: derived)

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Census File Number (CFN)• Used for both the EC and BR as the sort order and

main index for the file• Always Character 10 ($10.)• For Single-units– First character “0”– Last 9 characters Federal Employer Identification Number

(EIN)• For Multi-units– First character nonzero– First six characters Census Alpha– Last four characters establishment ID

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Employer Identification Number

• Taxable (legal) entity identifier• Always Character 9 ($9.)• For SUs, equivalent to CFN and unique• For MUs, applies to the owning entity– An Alpha (see below) may be associated with

multiple EINs

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Permanent Plant Number

• Longitudinal link based on CFN• Always Character 10 ($10.)• Quality improves since inception in 1982• Longitudinal links from Longitudinal Business

Database are preferable (LBDNUM) (Jarmin and Miranda)

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Census Alpha

• Identifies the business that owns (50% or greater interest) the establishment for MUs

• EC and BR-SU– Character 6 ($6.) and never has a leading 0– Called EIALPHA

• BR-MU– Character 10 ($10.)– Called ALPHA

• Used to construct enterprise-level entities

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Business Register Redesign• 2002 Business Register redesigned• SURVU_ID replaced CFN• SURVU_TYPE– MU/SU– ARU = Alternative reporting unit– SBM = EIN level reporting

• File Structure– Base/Misc– Line/Trailer – line code (LCODE) observations

• Historical identifiers (e.g., CFN, PPN) carried forward for continuers

• Newer versions of microdata have LBDNUM2/18/2013


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Identifiers

• Geography Identifiers– State identifiers– County identifiers– City identifiers– Full Census geography (BR only)

• Activity Identifiers– Industry Codes (NAICS, SIC)– Product Codes

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Geography Identifiers

• EC and BR– State (Census and FIPS)– County (Census and FIPS)– Consolidate Metropolitan Statistical Area (FIPS)

• BR only– Census Block – Zip– County Business Patterns Geography

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Geography Identifiers

• Contemporaneous geographic definitions• Virginia city-counties

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County Changes Since 1977• La Paz, Arizona (created 1983) back into Yuma

– replace fips=4027 if fips==4012• Cibola, New Mexico (created 1981) back into Valencia

– replace fips=35061 if fips==35006• Washabaugh, South Dakota (merged 1979) back into Jackson

– replace fips=46071 if fips==46131• St. Genevieve, Missouri renumbered in 1982

– replace fips=29186 if fips==29193• Muskogee, Georgia renumbered in 1982

– replace fips=13215 if fips==13510• Denver

2/18/2013


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Activity Identifiers

• NAICS (2002, 2007, 2012)– Full U.S. Industry code (Char 6)– Derived industry codes

• SIC– Full 1987 SIC (6-digits to product class code)

• Contemporaneous industry definitions• NAICS to SIC bridge codes– McKinney (see Assignment)– Klimek and Fort

2/18/2013


RDC 1997, 2002 and 2007 NAICS Sector Files

2/18/2013

NAICS Sectors RDC 1997/2002/2007 Files31-33 CMF (Manufactures)22, 48-49 CUT (Utilities)42 CWH (Wholesale)44-45, 72 CRT (Retail)51, 54, 56, 61, 62, 71, 81 CSR (Services)52, 53 CFI (FIRE)55 CSR in 2002 2007


54

Finding Active Entities

• EC– Use sample weight (WT>0)

• BR-SU– Exclude submasters (PDIV=“M”)– Payroll or employment positive (see example)

• BR-MU– Exclude ghosts (ACT=“G”)– Payroll or employment positive (see example)

2/18/2013


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Creating Custom Entities• Establishment-level files– EC: natural organization– BR-SU: exclude submaster records– BR-MU: exclude ghosts

• Company-level files– EC: use EIALPHA to find related establishments– BR: create compatible ALPHA10 in SU to get information

on submasters to link to establishments on MU• Pseudo-establishments– Combine establishments based on EIN, geography and

activity

2/18/2013


562/18/2013

Variety of Uses

• Population Census = size of population?• Economic Census = size of economy?• Aggregate economic growth • Published disaggregation– Industry, Geography, Plant size

• Also confidential micro-data• Public Policy topics (and academic)


572/18/2013

Business Surveys and Research Tools

• The Annual Survey of Manufactures• The Longitudinal Research Database• Other business burveys• National Income and Product Accounts• Industry-level Research• Plant-level Research


582/18/2013

ASM Overview

• Nature of the survey• Sampling frame and plan• Documentation• ASM data in RDCs


59

Basic ASM Concepts

• “manufactures,” not “manufacturers”• manufacture (plural: manufactures)– The making of goods or wares by manual labor or

by machinery, especially on a large scale.– The making of producing of something; generation– the thing manufactured– (Webster's College Dictionary, 1996)

2/18/2013


60

Nature of the Survey

• To provide key intercensal measures of manufacturing activity, products, and location for the public and private sectors

• Best measure of current U.S. manufacturing industry outputs, inputs, and operating status

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612/18/2013

ASM Essentials• The Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) provides sample

estimates of statistics for all manufacturing establishments with one or more paid employee

• The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the ASM in each of the 4 years between the economic census which is collected for years ending in 2 and 7

• The economic census - manufacturing is the sample frame from which the ASM is chosen and presents more detailed data than the ASM

• Both input and output measures collected http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/



62

Target Population

• All manufacturing establishments with one or more paid employees

• Multi-activity locations are broken into separate “establishments,” at the discretion of the reporting entity, “if the plant records permit such a separation and if the activities are substantial in size”

• Exclusions:– Central administrative offices– Non-employers

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63

Sampling Frame and Plan• Frame population: Economic Census of Manufactures in the 2 and 7 years• Sample is drawn in the 3 and 8 years, then used for five consecutive years (4-

8 and 9-3)– This means that a component of any Census of Manufactures is the ASM sample,

which was drawn from a frame population based on the previous EC– Supplemental frame of new establishments is used to refresh sample between ECs

• Base sample is a multistage probability sample with large establishments sampled with probability one (self-representing)

• Consequence: a component of any Census of Manufactures is the ASM sample, which was drawn from a frame population based on the previous CM

• Refreshing: Supplemental frame of new establishments is used to refresh sample between CMs

• There have been many significant redesigns of the ASM sample• Historical information is in McGuckin and Pascoe (CES WP 88-2)

2/18/2013


642/18/2013


65

Frame Maintenance ASM

• Between Economic Censuses– Internal Revenue Service administrative records

(=> Business Register updates, Register-based statistics) are used to include new single-unit manufacturers

– Report of Organization Survey (administered simultaneously) identifies new establishments of multi-unit firms

– Manufacturers’ Classification Survey identifies kinds of business

2/18/2013


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Sampling Method

• Sampling method:– ~ 15,000 establishments with certainty (about

67% of total value of shipments in 2007)– ~ 35,000 establishments with probability

proportional to a composite measure of establishment size (.05 to 1.00 in 2007)

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html

2/18/2013




67

Survey Content

• Employment• Payroll• Value added by manufacture • Cost of materials consumed• Value of shipments • Detailed new capital expenditures, • Supplemental labor costs • Fuels and electric energy used • Inventories by stage of fabrication2/18/2013


682/18/2013

Documentation• Questionnaire– http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/asm/form.html

• Publications:– http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/

• Purpose: measure size of aggregate economy and individual industries, compute components for the National Income and Product Accounts

http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/asm/form.html



69

ASM Uses

• Official publications:– Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries– Value of Product Shipments– Geographic area statistics (by state)

• Publications: last for 2005 data http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/am0531gs1.pdf

• Tabular data (replaces printed publication since 2006 data) http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t#none

• Documentation/methods http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/definitions/index.html2/18/2013

http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/am0531gs1.pdf

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t%23none

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t%23none

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/definitions/index.html




702/18/2013

ASM Uses (continued)

• Microdata analysis in RDCs• Documentation at:

https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/definitions/index.html

• Annual Survey of Manufactures data available at RDCs for 1973 to 2011






71

Linkages to the ASM

• Data elements:– By CFN– By name– By EIN– By location

• Dimensions– To CM– To other surveys– Across time (LRD, LBD)

2/18/2013


722/18/2013

Longitudinal Business Database LBD

• Historical Longitudinal Research Database (LRD)– Longitudinal integration of ASM and CM (Census

of Manufactures) data• Linking the LRD to other data• Using the LRD in RDCs• The LBD and ILBD


732/18/2013

Why Longitudinal (LRD)?

• Follow entities over time• Total Factor Productivity growth

Growth accounting methodTFP growth = output growth – input growth

• Capital stockPerpetual inventory method(investment flows, depreciation rate)Example: Becker & Grey (2005)

http://www.nber.org/data/nbprod2005.html


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Longitudinal Integration of ASM/CM

• Described in detail in McGuckin and Pascoehttp://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html

• Large establishments have a different dynamic pattern than small establishments due to sample design (self-representing vs. sampled)

• Consistent variable definitionshttp://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html

http://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html




752/18/2013

Linking the LRD to Other Data

• Establishment identifiers are provided, can link to other Census-collected datasets

• Some links to non-Census data already exist (Compustat, EPA data, ES-202)

• Other links are accomplished by using the Business Register and record linking software

• A more extensive set of links is available using the Longitudinal Business Database (discussed later)


762/18/2013

Using the LRD in RDCs

• LRD includes ASM and CM data• LRD is requested by requesting the

appropriate years of ASM and CM (“Longitudinal” part comes from the establishment-specific linkages included in the CES-based versions of the ASM and CM data files)


772/18/2013

Extension to LBD and ILBD

• Longitudinal Business Database (1976-2010)https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/datasets/lbd.html

• Improved longitudinal linkages• Extended to non-manufacturing

– May be non-establishment aggregates– Fewer data variables available– Less annual data available– Will be treated extensively later in the course

• Integrated Longitudinal Business Database (ILBD)– Includes non-employer businesses– There are holes and research issues

https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/datasets/lbd.html


78

Overview LBD

• Jarmin & Miranda (2002) CES-WP-02-17http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2128793

• Improved longitudinal linkages– Based on the Business Register only– Fixes broken linkages using probabilistic matching

based on name and location– (similar data in other countries is often linked by

worker flows only, see LEHD data later in the course for similar linkages)2/18/2013

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2128793

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2128793


79

Additional Benefits/Costs LBD

• Linkage to ASM, CM, other surveys• Extended to non-manufacturing– May be non-establishment aggregates– Fewer data variables available– Less annual data available

2/18/2013


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Supreme Benefit of LBD

• A synthetic version is available outside the RDChttp://www2.vrdc.cornell.edu/news/data/lbd-synthetic-data/

• Kinney et al. (2011) http://www.census.gov/ces/pdf/CES-WP-11-04.pdf

2/18/2013

http://www2.vrdc.cornell.edu/news/data/lbd-synthetic-data/

http://www2.vrdc.cornell.edu/news/data/lbd-synthetic-data/

http://www.census.gov/ces/pdf/CES-WP-11-04.pdf

http://www.census.gov/ces/pdf/CES-WP-11-04.pdf


81

Key identifier: LBDNUM

• LBDNUM is a time-consistent identifier• Not permanent: is readjusted with every release

of newer LBD data• Available in other economic Census data

(CFI/CUT/CWH/CSR/CRT)– “The variables LBDNUM_200500, LBDNUM_C200907,

and LBDNUM_C201002 indicate the LBDNUMs that can be linked to the C200500, C200907, and C201002 versions of the LBD. The variable LBDNUM … [links to] the latest version of the LBD”

2/18/2013


822/18/2013

Other Business Data

• Censuses of Construction, Finance (FIRE), Manufactures, Mining, Retail Trade, Services, Transportation Communication and Utilities (CUT), Wholesale Trade

• Linking tools: Compustat, IRS Form 5500 (pension and benfit plans), LBD, ILBD, Ownership Change Database, Business Register




832/18/2013

Other Business Data II

• Establishment Surveys– ASM– Current Industrial Reports (from the Energy Information

Administration)– Medical Expenditure Panel (from AHRQ)– National Employer Survey (from Department of Education)– Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization (from Federal

Reserve)– Survey of Manufacturing Technology– Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures Survey




842/18/2013

Other Business Data III• Firm Surveys

– Annual Capital Expenditure Survey– Annual Surveys of Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade, Services– Business Expenditure Survey (every 5 years)– Business Research and Development (new, NSF)– Survey of Industrial Research and Development (discontinued, NSF)– Exporter Database (International Trade Administration)– Kauffman Firm Survey– Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, Orders (M3)– Quarterly Financial Report– Survey of Business Owners (every 5 years)

• Transaction Surveys– Commodity Flow Survey (DOT)– Foreign Trade Data (Imports/Exports)




852/18/2013

Census of Manufactures

• Includes Annual Survey questions, plants• Includes all establishments (not just ASM)• Includes many additional questions– Expenditures on computers– Inventory valuation– Materials consumed– Questions vary over time

• Published detail: geography, size classes


86

Using ASM to Complement CM

• Foster, L.; Haltiwanger, J. C. & Krizan, C. J. (2001), “Aggregate Productivity Growth. Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence”, in Charles R. Hulten & Edwin R. Dean & Michael J. Harper, ed., New Developments in Productivity Analysis

• Example of issue: “for plants that were not in the Annual Survey of Manufactures [...] but in the mail universe of the CM, book-value data are imputed in years other than 1987.”

• Solution: use ASM as control for larger model2/18/2013


872/18/2013

PACE Survey

• Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures• Subsample of ASM (high-pollution sectors)• Capital expenditures and operating costs• 1973-1986, 1988-1994, 1999, 2004/5+• Published with geography, industry detail


88

PACE Research Usage

• http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/searchpapers?search_terms=pace&allpapers=1

• CES-WP-93-6, “Environmental Regulation And Manufacturing Productivity At The Plant Level” (Gray and Shadbegian) http://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/93-6.html – PACE => abatement capital stock– ASM => productivity, size– EPA data => emissions– “a $1 increase in compliance costs appears to reduce TFP by

the equivalent of $3 to $4” 2/18/2013

http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/searchpapers?search_terms=pace&allpapers=1

http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/searchpapers?search_terms=pace&allpapers=1

http://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/93-6.html


892/18/2013

Industry-level Research

• NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database (Bartelsmann, Becker, Gray)– Latest at

http://www.nber.org/data/nbprod2005.html – Annual industry-level data on output, employment,

payroll and other input costs, investment, capital stocks, TFP, and various industry-specific price indexes

• Available in RDC• Other Published Data• Research Examples

http://www.nber.org/data/nbprod2005.html


902/18/2013

CES-NBER Manufacturing Industry Productivity Database

• Available on NBER websitehttp://www.nber.org/nberces/nbprod96.htm

• Documented in Bartelsman and Gray http://www.nber.org/nberces/t0205.pdfand Bartelsman, Becker, Grayhttp://www.nber.org/nberces/

• Basic ASM-CM data• Also prices, capital stock, productivity• Consistent industries (SIC/NAICS)• Currently to 2005

http://www.nber.org/nberces/nbprod96.htm

http://www.nber.org/nberces/t0205.pdf

http://www.nber.org/nberces/t0205.pdf

http://www.nber.org/nberces/


912/18/2013

Other Published Data

• Other ASM data– Labor costs, investment, inventories

• Economic Censuses– Geography, some size classes

• Complications– Changes in industry definitions– Hard to get older years in electronic form


922/18/2013

Research Examples

• Impact of Pollution Abatement Costs– Combine PACE and ASM data– Geographic (SMSA) variation, employment– Industry variation, productivity slowdown

• Impact of Trade on Employment– Combine import/export data with ASM data

• Impact of Computers on TFP– Combine CM-computers and ASM data


932/18/2013

Plant-Level Research

• Advantages and Disadvantages• Standard Procedures• Research Examples


942/18/2013

Advantages and Disadvantages

• Advantages– Many more observations– Comparisons within industry– Micro/Plant foundations of Macro/Industry

• Disadvantages– More work to understand/clean data– Need to work at RDC (time, $)


95

Standard Procedures

• Often examining plants in single industry– Easier to justify common “production function”

• Nearly always linking to external data– Usually plant-specific external data– Sometimes geography-specific data

2/18/2013


962/18/2013

Research Examples

• CES working papers http://ideas.repec.org/s/cen/wpaper.html

• Shadbegian and Gray (2003)– PACE => abatement capital stock– ASM => productivity, size– EPA data => emissions

http://ideas.repec.org/s/cen/wpaper.html


97

BLS Surveys

• National Compensation Survey (NCS) http://www.bls.gov/ncs/

• Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) http://www.bls.gov/oes/

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) http://www.bls.gov/jlt/

• Current Employment Statistics (CES) http://www.bls.gov/ces/

2/18/2013

http://www.bls.gov/ncs/

http://www.bls.gov/oes/

http://www.bls.gov/jlt/

http://www.bls.gov/ces/


98

BLS RDC

• Access to the confidential versions of these surveys is only feasible at the BLS RDC in Washington (not the Census RDC)

• Protocols are different (more resource constrained)

http://www.bls.gov/bls/blsresda.htm

2/18/2013

http://www.bls.gov/bls/blsresda.htm

Documents

INFO 7470/ECON 7400/ILRLE 7400 Measuring Business and Economic Activity John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber with contributions by Jim Davis, Brent Moulton