India Strategy - pg.jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/12/1/6ed... · Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 [email protected] Nilesh Bhaiya +91 22 6720 4044

Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

INDIA

Rural consumer sentiment picked up sharply in Nov’17

Source: CMIE, Macquarie Research, November 2017

Real rural wage growth improving

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November 2017

Theme 1: Rural + Infra + GST (R-IN-G)

Stock Ticker

Hindustan Unilever HUVR IN Hero MotoCorp HMCL IN NCC NJCC IN Larsen & Toubro LT IN IndusInd Bank IIB IN Titan TTAN IN

Source: Macquarie Research, November 2017

Theme 2. Catch-up ideas

Stock Ticker

Phoenix Mills PHNX IN Yes Bank YES IN Indian Oil IOCL IN Coal India COAL IN Jubilant Life Sciences JUBILANT IN

Source: Macquarie Research, November 2017

Analyst(s) Inderjeetsingh Bhatia +91 22 6720 4087 [email protected] Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 [email protected] Nilesh Bhaiya +91 22 6720 4044 [email protected]

1 December 2017 Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

India Strategy Booster shots to keep market afloat Event

Bank recap, massive overhaul of GST rates & rating upgrade has helped

markets sustain at higher levels. Government’s gradual turn towards populism

is evident and would entail boost in farm income through controlled rise in

food inflation. Budget in Feb’18, last before elections would be expansionary.

Positive news flow would compensate for downside to earnings but upside to

frontline indices is also limited.

We recommend two themes – R-IN-G and Catch-up – R-IN-G (Rural + Infra +

GST) theme would benefit from focus on rural & Infra spend along with shift

from Unorganised to Organised due to GST. Catch-up basket has stocks

which have lagged respective sectors but have earning triggers.

Impact

Rural recovery thesis gets stronger with food inflation returning:

Government seems to be playing fine balancing act between inflation and

widespread rural distress by allowing higher MSP prices. This sits well with

government intention to double farm incomes by 2022. Our conversation with

various consumer companies indicate nascent signs of rural turnaround.

Anecdotal evidence clearly suggests that demand has increased with lower

GST rates. As per CMIE, Consumer Sentiment Index has improved sharply in

November strengthening our thesis

Infrastructure spending to get a boost from roads and railways: We

expect a clear step-up in execution of Roads and Railways (particularly

electrification) project. Our channel checks suggest that road projects worth

Rs1trn are up for bidding in the next 6 months itself. Execution would improve

on back of GST-related issues getting sorted.

Yet, ingredients not in place for 20% earnings growth, but market would

overlook minor disappointment: Q2 earnings met expectations after series

of downgrades. With restocking tailwind, Nifty could only manage 12%

earnings growth in 2Q18. However, expectation for FY19 is still very elevated

at 21%. In the last 15 years, Nifty has not delivered 20%+ earnings growth

without large scale capex cycle and export growth of at least 20%. With both

these factors missing, we expect earnings growth to be weaker at 16%.

Turnaround in Housing & Private capex not in a hurry: In real estate,

fresh launches will remain subdued due to inventory overhang. Buyer

sentiment also is subdued with view that prices will remain stagnant. On

private capex, it would need 12-18 months of high single digit manufacturing

growth for spending to improve. Another related data point is that despite very

active primary market, funds raised for growth are only US$1bn in FY18TD.

Outlook

Top picks: We recommend two themes – basket of stocks which are

beneficiary from rural & Infra spend along with GST (R-IN-G) and Catch-up

basket with stocks which have lagged respective sectors but have earning

triggers. Under the R-IN-G theme, top picks include HUVR, HMCL, NJCC, LT,

IIB and TTAN. Under the Catch-up theme, top picks include PHNX, YES,

IOCL, COAL and JUBILANT.

Macquarie Research India Strategy

1 December 2017 2

Fig 1 India Strategy: Key Investment ideas across two broad themes

Stock Investment thesis

Theme 1: Rural + Infrastructure + GST (R-IN-G)

Hindustan Unilever HUL has 40% contribution in sales coming from rural India. During the last high volume growth phase (2010-2012), rural was the dominant contributor.

Hero MotoCorp

Hero has higher exposure to rural markets and was most impacted by demonetisation and weak rural consumption last year. Volume growth will improve on back of pick-up in rural demand going forward, which will drive stock outperformance.

NCC NCC is our top-pick in the mid cap EPC space. We expect the company to enter superior growth phase from 3Q18 onwards, post 4 years of consolidation phase.

Larsen & Toubro

L&T is the best proxy play on the higher Indian Infrastructure spending. We expect L&T’s core E&C EPS to witness 22% CAGR over FY17-20E, led by 130bps expansion in EBITDA margin. Valuation is comfortable at PER of 19x FY19E core E&C EPS, in line with most of the tier-2 companies despite diversified business model, scale and better return ratios over long term.

IndusInd Bank Big-picture philosophy behind BHAFIN acquisition was to push for a large rural play via MFI distribution network; post-merger MFI book (entirely rural) is 10% of loans. IIB also a beneficiary of Infra push (12% CV book).

Titan Titan is the biggest beneficiary of GST owing to higher share of unorganized market in the Indian jewellery sector.

Theme 2. Catch-up ideas

Phoenix Mills Our valuations set at 8% cap rate for retail malls is conservative compared to 6% at which CPPIB deal in Bangalore mall happened. Our TP of Rs660 offers 30% total return.

YES Bank

Stock down due to divergence related issues. Fundamentals intact as business model is based on good recoveries. Expect credit costs to be sub 100bps and loan growth to be 25-30% resulting in strong earnings growth of 25% CAGR over the next 3 years.

Indian Oil IOCL's valuation of 6x EV-EBITDA is cheap, in our view of the refining-related growth (Paradip / complexity upgrades / BSVI upgrades) and improving returns.

Coal India

We expect the domestic coal market to remain tight in the near to medium term with gradual re-stocking by power plants. Lower coal supply to the non-power sector and strong global prices should start reflecting higher E-auction prices from 3Q18E. Wage hikes and grade slippage are well factored in 1H18 earnings whereas operational leverage, from strong volume growth, provides upside risk to FY18E consensus earnings; 6% div yield reduces downside and makes the risk-reward attractive at 7x FY19E EV/EBITDA.

Jubilant Life Sciences

As specialty’s EBITDA contribution increases, we expect Jubilant’s overall EBITDA margins and free cash generation to continue to ramp up. Also, we expect strong near to medium term demand tailwinds for the LSI business, which will drive earnings.

Source: Company reports, Macquarie Research, November 2017


1 December 2017 3

Recovery in rural demand to support consumption

Consumption – support to come from recovery in rural demand even as urban

consumption may not see more legs of growth: Private consumption accounts for nearly 60%

of GDP and is usually seen as a strong driver of the domestic demand story. Indeed, total

consumption has grown at a faster pace of 10.1% vs. overall GDP growth of 6.9% in the last 15

months. The key driving force has been urban consumption which has been supported by lower

inflation, borrowing costs and support from wage hikes for government employees. Rural

consumption, on the other hand has been weak for the last 2-3 years, initially impacted by sub-par

monsoons and more recently by the decline in food prices and lower rural wage growth.

In our view, going forward, rural consumption will recover from here as indicated by an

improvement in real rural wages, slight uptick in MSP prices and improvement in terms of trade for

the farmers. We look at the points below.

Rise in real rural wages: Post a sharp deceleration in nominal rural wage growth to near 4%

in 2015, rural wage growth has now started to inch higher to around 6.5-7.0%. Further, the

real rural wage growth has averaged 4.4% in FY18 (Apr-Jul) from near-zero growth in the last

two years.

Fig 2 Two wheeler sales robust Fig 3 Real rural wage growth improving

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November 2017 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November 2017

Fig 4 MSP hikes at 8% for two consecutive years Fig 5 Improvements in farmers terms of trade


-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

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35%

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-12

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YoY% YoY% 3MMA

Two wheeler Sales

6.0%

1.1%

-0.8%

0.6%

3.9%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

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7.0%

F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018YTD

Real rural wage growth, YoY%

7%

2%

6%

8% 8%

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4%

5%

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MSP increase (average all crops)YoY%

-4%

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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

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14%

Ju

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3

Sep

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WPI ToT, YoY%3MMA


1 December 2017 4

Increase in minimum support (MSP) prices in a range of 8% for last two crop growing

seasons: The increase in government administered minimum support prices are also a key

component to determine farm income. Post the last two years of very low growth in the range

of 2-6%, the increase in MSP prices in the last two growing seasons has accelerated slightly

to the range of 8-9%.

Improvement in terms of trade for farmers: We construct the terms of trade of farmers

using the index of food inflation to non-food inflation, and the same has now bottomed out,

indicating an improvement in farmers’ relative purchasing power.

We thus believe that the rural economy will benefit from stabilisation in incomes. Further,

governments focus on infrastructure spending (roads, housing) if executed in a timely manner

bodes well for job creation and thus income growth. We believe urban consumption may at best

remain neutral as the support of government spending (wage hikes), trailing benefits of lower

inflation and borrowing costs fades away.

Fig 6 Rural consumer sentiment picked up in Nov’17

Source: CMIE, Macquarie Research, November 2017


1 December 2017 5

Governments focus on infrastructure spending to support growth

Public investment has been holding up in the past few years, helped by a combination of higher

central government capital spending, accelerated efforts by public sector enterprises to increase

capital outlay and increase in states’ capital expenditure. The government also unveiled an ambitious

infrastructure spending program with a specific focus on the roads sector with a plan to spend

US$105bn over next 5 years. If the government focuses on proper execution of infrastructure

spending, that could provide a meaningful boost to the capex and growth outlook.

Road – Execution to accelerate over the next two years: The roads sector has been the

shining star of the government spending program with order awards having increased

meaningfully though still well below targets. Spending is increasing, which is visible from listed

companies’ order books and revenues.

Fig 7 Road awarding has picked up Fig 8 Road construction has improved

Source: NHAI, MoRTH, Macquarie Research, November 2017 Source: NHAI, MoRTH, Macquarie Research, November 2017

Railways capex – Strong growth to sustain: Railways spending has gone through significant

expansion from FY16 onward. Railways is moving to achieve its five-year target of Rs8.5trn capex

which is almost 3.5x spending in the previous five years. It has achieved an annual capex run-rate

of 1trn+ which should continue to grow at ~20% for the next few years. What could be more

interesting is the mix of total capex may move more towards infrastructure (new lines, guage

expansion, stations etc). Currently, Railways is spending ~25% of its annual capex on infra while

the rest is going towards land acquisition and wagon/locomotive capacity addition.

Fig 9 Railway capex has witnessed sharp increase Fig 10 Major capex is invested into network expansion

Source: CMIE, Ministry of Railways, November 2017 Source: CMIE, Ministry of Railways, November 2017

6,491

1,116 1,4353,067

4,392 4,335

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0

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6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

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FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17P

NHAI MoRTH (ex-NHAI)

9,794

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3,169

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15,948

(Km)

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1,901 1,5011,987

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FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17P

NHAI MoRTH (ex-NHAI)

5,013

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4,260 4,410

6,061

(Km)8,241

397 408 451

504 540 587

935

1,210

1,310

9.2%

2.8%

10.5% 11.8%

7.2% 8.8%

59.3%

29.4%

8.3%

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-

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FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E

Rs bn

Total railway Capex YoY

105 119

147

343

441 428

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E

Rs bn

Network expansion capex Avg (FY12-15)

Avg (FY15-18E)


1 December 2017 6

Housing – Expect gradual recovery in Mumbai and Bangalore; delayed recovery in NCR

Residential sector – NCR struggles, Bangalore standing out: Indian real estate sector has

been disrupted by three big events in last 12 months – demonetisation (in Nov 2016), RERA and

GST implementation (in May – July 2017 period). While most real estate companies have

registered their projects under RERA regime, launches remain few as developers are focussing on

selling down inventory in their ongoing projects. NCR region continues to be worst hit with

inventory of 48 and 55 qtrs of sales in Gurgaon and Noida v/s 11.5qtrs and 14.6qtrs of sales in

Bangalore and Mumbai respectively. At the margin, we expect launches to improve in Mumbai and

Bangalore, but continue to see very slow movement in NCR.

Fig 11 Launches improve in Mumbai while remaining weak in Gurgaon and Noida

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2017

Fig 12 Presales in NCR region are at multiyear low


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unitsBangalore Mumbai Gurgaon Noida

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unitsBangalore Mumbai Gurgaon Noida


1 December 2017 7

Fig 13 Inventory remains abnormally high in NCR region


Fig 14 Recent launches in RERA-ready states has increased supply in 3Q17

Source: JLL REIS, Macquarie research, November 2017: Note: Represents cumulative data for top 7 Indian cities

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qtrs of salesBangalore Mumbai Gurgaon Noida


1 December 2017 8

Private capex recovery to be weak as demand concerns may outweigh the likely positive

from PSU bank recap: The key concern for the growth outlook has been that private capex

recovery has remained elusive for the last four years. To be sure, there are various constraints for

a full-fledged capex recovery to follow through immediately, i.e. low capacity utilisation, stress in

banks’ balance sheets and high corporate leverage. Policy makers have been taking steps in the

right direction to address these issues mainly with the legal framework by way of the bankruptcy

law and the recently announced plan for recapitalisation of PSU banks. This improved the outlook

for capex, however, given still weak capacity utilisation, we expect a weak recovery in private

capex in 2H18.

Fig 15 Low capacity utilisation weighing on capex

Source: CEIC, RBI, November 2017

71

73

75

77

79

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Fixed capex (YoY%, 4-Qtr Moving Avg), LS Capacity Utilisation (4QMA, %), RS


1 December 2017 9

Two key earnings driver – capex and exports remain absent

We analysed the Nifty EPS growth trend for past 15 years to understand the key growth drivers of

earnings. Since FY02, there have been 6 times that the NIFTY has delivered 20%+ growth. In all 6 of

these instances, two key instrumental earnings driver have been capex and exports. On average, the

Gross Fixed Capital Formation has witnessed 18% growth whereas exports growth has been at 27%.

In the current scenario, both of these factors are missing. Thus, structural earnings growth of 20%+

seems an unlikely event. Consensus is estimating 21% Nifty EPS growth in FY19, largely on account

of a low base effect owing to impact of GST in 1H18. We believe that there is clear downside risk to

consensus growth estimate in FY19. Our Nifty EPS growth estimates stands at 16% for FY19.

Fig 16 Exports and Gross Fixed Capital Formation have been instrumental in Nifty EPS growth of 20%+

Particulars FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Nifty financials

Sales growth 43.8% 19.1% 7.1% 16.4% 22.5% 5.3% 13.6% 11.2% 15.7% 21.0% 6.5% 8.6% 6.2% -5.2% 6.6%

EPS growth 31.1% 33.7% 30.8% 11.9% 26.1% 21.8% -13.4% 7.8% 25.8% 7.1% 2.9% 14.5% -5.1% -0.7% 10.7%

Macro variables

GFCF growth 1.8% 16.0% 33.5% 20.3% 19.9% 22.2% 10.9% 12.9% 17.1% 24.5% 10.9% 5.7% 7.6% 5.8% 2.9%

Savings as % of GDP 25.9% 29.0% 32.4% 33.4% 34.6% 36.8% 32.0% 33.7% 33.7% 34.6% 33.8% 32.1% 32.9% 32.2% 30.7%

Exports Growth 20.3% 23.3% 28.5% 23.4% 22.6% 28.9% 13.7% -3.5% 40.4% 20.9% -1.0% 3.9% -0.6% -15.9% 5.2%

WPI 3.4% 5.5% 6.5% 4.4% 6.6% 4.7% 8.1% 3.9% 9.6% 9.0% 7.4% 5.2% 1.3% -3.6% 1.8%

CPI 4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% 6.8% 6.2% 9.1% 12.3% 10.5% 8.4% 9.9% 9.4% 6.0% 4.9% 4.5%

Agriculture sector

Agri GDP YoY% -4.9% 8.2% 1.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.5% 0.4% 1.5% 8.3% 4.4% 1.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.2% 4.4%

MSP increase 2.4% 6.3% 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 7.2% 18.8% 12.1% 7.2% 15.5% 19.8% 6.6% 2.4% 6.3% 8.3%

Food inflation 2.7% 3.7% 2.2% 4.2% 9.1% 8.4% 12.4% 15.1% 9.9% 6.3% 11.8% 11.0% 6.6% 4.9% 4.3%

Financial sector

Credit growth 22.7% 15.5% 27.5% 37.0% 28.5% 22.1% 17.9% 17.0% 21.5% 17.1% 14.1% 14.3% 8.2% 11.4% 8.7%

Source: Bloomberg, RBI, Macquarie Research, November 2017

GFCF as % of GDP is at a decade low: Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) grew by a meagre

2.9% in FY17. It has slowed to 27% of GDP from 34% of GDP in FY12. GFCF as a percentage of

GDP is at a decade low. The primary reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of the Gross

fixed capital formation is the declining contribution from households’ investments. Over FY12-17,

households’ investments have grown at a CAGR of 1.9% vs 7.5% for GFCF. As a result, the share

of households’ investments has declined from 46% in FY12 to 37% in FY16.

Fig 17 GFCF as a percentage of GDP is at a decade low

Source: RBI, Macquarie Research, November 2017

24%23%

25%24%

25%

29%30%

31%33% 32% 32%

31%

34%33%

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GFCF (as % of GDP)


1 December 2017 10

Government capex has been the sole support to the overall capex: Government capex has

been strong and has been the sole supporter of the Gross fixed capital formation. Government

investment has witnessed a CAGR of 16.5% over the three-year period FY13-16. This led to an

increase in the share of the government investment to 13% by FY16 from FY12’s 10%. Even

public corporation investments saw a 9.6% CAGR over FY13-16. Excluding the total public

spending (public corporations + government), Gross fixed capital formation grew at only 4.5%

CAGR over FY13-16.

Fig 18 Share of households has been declining

Fig 19 GFCF growth has been supported by government spending


GFCF growth to be gradual in the absence of private capex: One of the key reason for

deceleration of growth rates in GFCF is the falling growth in private capex and households. Both

of these factors are unlikely to see string recovery in near term. This should act as a limiting factor

for strong rebound in GFCF, even if the government remains supportive of spending. We expect,

GFCF to witness 6%/8% growth in FY18/19E.

Exports to recover gradually on the back of better global growth forecasts: With exports of

goods and services accounting for nearly 20% of GDP, the health of the global economy does

have an important bearing on India’s overall growth trajectory. Export growth has been in positive

territory over the last 14 months, averaging 10.3% after declining in the preceding 22 months.

Indeed, the trend in exports influences industrial production, capital formation and capacity

utilisation. The trends of the last 12 months have indicated that while commodity price reflation

has contributed positively, non-commodity exports, too, have been edging up, indicating some

improvement in global demand conditions. In this context, the continued robust global growth

outlook for 2018 (IMF expects global growth at 3.5% and 3.6% in 2017 and 2018 respectively)

bodes well for gradual export growth recovery.

46% 44% 40% 42% 37%

32% 35% 37% 36%37%

10% 10% 11% 12% 13%

11% 10% 11% 10% 11%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

0%

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40%

60%

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100%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

%

Households Private non- financial corporations

General government Public non-financial corporations

Private financial corporations

6%

-3%

12%

-6%

20%

12%

4%

10% 11%

17%

11%

22%

6%

11%

-2%

21%

-10%

-5%

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25%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

%

Households

Private non- financial corporations

General government

Public non-financial corporations

GFCF


1 December 2017 11

Stocks mentioned

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN, Rs1,277.35, Outperform, TP: Rs1,402.00)

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL IN, Rs3,656.85, Outperform, TP: Rs4,400.00)

NCC (NJCC IN, Rs120.40, Outperform, TP: Rs125.00)

Larsen & Toubro (LT IN, Rs1,217.30, Outperform, TP: Rs1,590.00)

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN, Rs1,671.80, Outperform, TP: Rs1,625.00)

Titan (TTAN IN, Rs819.25, Outperform, TP: Rs907.00)

Phoenix Mills (PHNX IN, Rs513.40, Outperform, TP: Rs660.00)

Yes Bank (YES IN, Rs312.30, Neutral, TP: Rs362.00)

Indian Oil (IOCL IN, Rs394.05, Outperform, TP: Rs610.00)

Coal India (COAL IN, Rs276.45, Outperform, TP: Rs310.00)

Jubilant Life Sciences (JUBILANT IN, Rs639.30, Outperform, TP: Rs900.00)


1 December 2017 12

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada

Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be

expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2017

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 50.38% 56.22% 40.70% 46.21% 63.85% 41.61% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.18% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 37.50% 28.16% 43.02% 47.52% 30.00% 39.51% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 12.12% 15.62% 16.28% 6.27% 6.15% 18.88% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 1.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities. General disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Limited and Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd; Macquarie Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd; Macquarie Securities Korea Limited and Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd are not authorized deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. 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Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, a Macquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. The date and timestamp for above share price and market cap is the closed price of the price date. #CLOSE is the final price at which the security is traded in the relevant exchange on the date indicated. Country-specific disclaimers: Australia: In Australia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947), a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange. New Zealand: In New Zealand, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd, a NZX Firm. Canada: In Canada, research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participating organisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montréal Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd in the United States and sent to US persons. Any US person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. The Research Distribution Policy of Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd is to allow all clients that are entitled to have equal access to our research. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, research is issued and


1 December 2017 13

distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Germany: In Germany, this research is issued and/or distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). and in Germany by BaFin. France: In France, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Hong Kong & Mainland China: In Hong Kong, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. In Mainland China, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Shanghai Representative Office only engages in non-business operational activities excluding issuing and distributing research. 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Asia Research Head of Equity Research

Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (44 20) 3037 4263

Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583

David Gibson (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 7880

Conrad Werner (ASEAN – Head) (65) 6601 0182

Automobiles, Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China, Japan) (813) 3512 7856

Allen Yuan (China) (8621) 2412 9009

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Banks and Financials

Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567

Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078

Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310

Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Ken Ang (Singapore) (65) 6601 0836

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Commodities and Basic Materials

Jim Lennon (Global) (44 20) 3037 4271

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Matthew Turner (Global) (44 20) 3037 4340

Vivienne Lloyd (Global) (44 20) 3037 4530

Serafino Capoferri (Global) (44 20) 3037 2517

Lynn Zhao (Global) (86 21) 2412 9035

Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Sumangal Nevatia (India) (9122) 6720 4093


Conglomerates

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182


Consumer, Gaming

Linda Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 4068

Zibo Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130

Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581

Sunny Chow (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3768

Stella Li (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514

Satsuki Kawasaki (Japan) (813) 3512 7870

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

KJ Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9935

Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (Asia) (852) 3922 3583

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

Corinne Jian (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7522

Conrad Werner (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0182

Industrials, Transport and Infrastructure

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Eric Zong (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4749

Kunio Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 7873

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0560

Internet, Media and Software

Wendy Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 3378

Ivy Luo (Greater China) (852) 3922 1507

Marcus Yang (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7532

David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669


Yupapan Polpornprasert (Thailand) (662) 694 7729

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Wei Li (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 5494

Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Property, REIT

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838


Wilson Ho (China) (852) 3922 3248

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864


Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Technology

Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512

Chris Yu (Greater China) (8621) 2412 9024

Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523

Louis Cheng (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7526

Lynn Luo (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7534

Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515

Verena Jeng (Greater China) (852) 3922 3766

Chenyu Yao (Japan) (813) 3512 7849

Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Telecoms

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Nathania Nurhalim (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8365

Utilities, Renewables

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Yingying Tang (China) (852) 3922 3289


Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Economics and Macro

Ric Deverell (612) 8232 4307 (Chief Economist & Head of Macro Research)

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Global) (813) 3512 7850

Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778

Upasana Chachra (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative, CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (44 20) 3037 4036

Alvin Chao (Asia) (852) 3922 1108

Tracy Chow (Asia) (852) 3922 4285

YingYing Hou (Asia) (852) 3922 5422

Strategy, Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883


Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512



Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833


Conrad Werner (ASEAN, Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarieresearch.com Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales

Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121

Amelia Mehta (Asia) (65) 6601 0211

Jeff Evans (Boston) (1 617) 598 2508

Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061

Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101

Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712

Tomohiro Takahashi (Japan) (813) 3512 7823

John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988

Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d

Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4882

Christina Lee (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4873

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002

Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555

Sales Trading cont’d

Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Daniel Clarke (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580

Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905

This publication was disseminated on 30 November 2017 at 19:41 UTC.

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India Strategy - pg.jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/12/1/6ed... · Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 [email protected] Nilesh Bhaiya +91 22 6720 4044