India Meteorological Departmentnwp.imd.gov.in/fdp_now/fdp_bulletins/fdp.pdf · 2020-03-07 · India Meteorological Department FDP STORM Bulletin No. 06 (07-03-2020) 1. SUMMARY OF

India Meteorological Department

FDP STORM Bulletin No. 10 (11-03-2020)

1. SUMMARY OF THE DAY (DAY-1 & DAY-2):

o Hourly reflectivity values from WRF-ARW model (initialized at 00 UTC of today) indicate highest probability of convection over north

Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh as well as Jharkhand,

Odisha, West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh on day 1 and continuing on day 2. IITM-WRF model Lightning Flash prediction model by DLP

scheme (initialized at 12 UTC of yesterday) indicates high lightning flash potential over south interior Karnataka and Kerala. NCUM 4 km

regional model (initialized at 00 UTC of today) based forecast of lightning indicates highest probability of lightning occurrence over Punjab,

Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Kerala on day 1 and with increased intensity over entire north and east India on day 2. Wind

gust probability (20-24 mps or greater) is highest over Uttarakhand on day 1 and over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and

Uttarakhand on day 2.

o Synoptic analysis indicates that with the eastward movement of the Western Disturbance, an induced Low Pressure Area has formed over

southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 2.1 km above mean sea level. There is also an eastwest

oriented trough from the induced cyclonic circulation to north Chhattisgarh across East Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh in the lower

levels. The induced cyclonic circulation is likely to continue to bring in moisture from the Arabian Sea into northwest India. The zero degree

isotherm has descended lower today over northwest India, compared to yesterday. The lower atmospheric shear has also increased in the 00

UTC soundings. With the intensification of the weather system over northwest India, weather in the form of thunderstorms accompanied by hail

and gusty winds are expected over north India today. At the eastern end of the trough, the winds from the anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal

(which has strengthened compared to yesterday), are likely to bring increased convection over east India. On day 2, the western disturbance is

likely to move very slowly further eastwards. Correspondingly, weather over the entire north Indian region is likely to continue on day 2, with

increase in intensity and spread.

2. IOP Area for Day-1 & Day-2:

IOP Advisory for 24hours IOP Advisory for 48 hours

Significant Rainfall: Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab,

Chandigarh, North Haryana, Northwest Uttar Pradesh

Thunderstorm with Squally Winds (upto 50-60 kmph) and lightning: Nil

Thunderstorm with Gusty Winds (upto 40-50 kmph) and lightning:

Uttarakhand,


Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi,

Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha,

Odisha,

Thunderstorm with Hail and lightning: Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal

Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,

West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha,

Thunderstorm with Lightning: Arunachal Pradesh, Northeast Assam,

Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura

Thunderstorm with Duststorm and lightning: Nil

Dust raising winds: Nil

Significant Rainfall: Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, North Punjab,

Chandigarh, North Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, Odisha,

Thunderstorm with Squally Winds (upto 50-60 kmph) and lightning: Nil


Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh,


Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, East

Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal,

Thunderstorm with Lightning: West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar

Thunderstorm with Hail and lightning: Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal

Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, East

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand

Thunderstorm with Duststorm and lightning: Nil

Dust raising winds: Nil

Graphical Presentation of Potential Areas for Severe Weather (IOPs) for Day-1 and Day-2:

IOP Advisory for 0 to 24 hours IOP Advisory for 24 to 48 hours

3. CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION:

NWFC Inference (0300 UTC of the day):

♦ The Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over Afghanistan & neighbourhood now lies over southeast Afghanistan & adjoining

Pakistan between 3.1 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level.

♦ The trough aloft with its axis at 7.6 km above mean sea level roughly along Long 65°E to the north of Lat 24°N persists.

♦ The induced cyclonic circulation over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood extending upto 2.1km above mean sea level persists.

♦ An eastwest trough runs from above induced cyclonic circulation to north Chhattisgarh across East Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh

at 0.9 km above mean sea level.

♦ The cyclonic circulation over Marathwada & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level has become less marked.

♦ However, the trough/wind discontinuity now runs from north Marathawada to south Tamilnadu across Interior Karnataka and extends upto 0.9

km above mean sea level.

4. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS:

DWR and RAPID Current Observations:

Isolated/multiple Light to moderate echoes are seen in DWR Lucknow (dBZ: 40-45, height: 6-8km) and Patiala (dBZ: 35-40, height: 5-8km) at

around 1520IST.

RAPID RGB imagery at 1415IST shows light to moderate convection over Punjab, North Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, North

Rajasthan, Northwest and East Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh.

Satellite Current Observations:

Moderate to Intense Convection based on 0500 UTC (METEOSAT-8 RGB): observed over south Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh

north Uttarakhand Punjab north Haryana.

Dust based on 0500 UTC (METEOSAT-8 RGB): Dust not observed over India.

Westerly trough (WD) based on (0500 UTC): Trough observed roughly along Long 65.0E and Lat 25.0N.

Vorticity 850 hPa: Based on (0500 UTC) upto 50 to -100 (x10^-5/s) observed over north part & east part of India.

Upto 150 to -50 (x10^-5/s) observed over west part of India.

Upto 50 to -50(x10^-5/s) observed over south part of India.

Wind Shear: Based on (0500 UTC) upto 80-100 kts over north, east and west India.

Upto 10-20 kts observed over south India .

Wind shear tendency: Based on (0500 UTC) Positive Wind Shear Tendency upto +20 kts is observed over Rajasthan Punjab Haryana

Delhi Uttar Pradesh extreme north Gujarat Bihar north Sub Himalayan West Bengal Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh north Assam extreme north

Madhya Pradesh.

Negative Wind Shear Tendency upto -20 kts is observed over Nagaland Manipur Mizoram Tripura

Meghalaya rest Assam Gangetic West Bengal rest Sub Himalayan West Bengal Orissa Jharkhand Chhattisgarh east Vidarbha Telangana.

Positive Wind Shear Tendency upto 0 kts is observed over rest India.

Low level convergence (850-925hPa:): Based on (0500 UTC) Negative Low Level Convergence upto -10 (x 10^-5/s) is observed over Bihar

Jharkhand north Chhattisgarh Gangetic West Bengal.

Negative Low Level Convergence upto -5 (x 10^-5/s) is observed over Jammu & Kashmir west Gujarat Nagaland Manipur Mizoram Tripura

Lakshadweep Nicobar Islands.

Positive Low Level Convergence upto +5 (x 10^-5/s) is observed over rest parts of India.

5. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE:

NCMRWF: NCUM Global (12km) (forecast based on 00 UTC the day):

1. Convergence at 850 hPa:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Lower Level Convergence > 15 x 10-5 /s

Day0: Assam_Meghalaya, West_RJ, Odisha, SI_Karnataka,

Day1: Assam_Meghalaya, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_RJ, SI_Karnataka,

Day2: Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, East_UP, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, SI_Karnataka,

Day3: NE_NMMT, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Odisha, Marathwada, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, SI_Karnataka,

Day4: Bihar, Odisha, East_MP, Madhya_Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Rayalseema, SI_Karnataka,

2. Low level Vorticity:-Positive Vorticity:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Lower Level Vorticity > 15 x 10-5 /s

Day0: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, NE_NMMT, Sub_Himalayan_WB, West_UP, Hry_Chd_Delhi, West_RJ, Coastal_AP,

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, NE_NMMT, West_UP, West_RJ, Odisha,

Day2: Assam_Meghalaya, Jharkhand, East_UP, West_UP, Punjab, West_RJ, Odisha, West_MP, East_MP, Guj_Reg,

Day3: Assam_Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh,

Day4: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, Bihar, East_UP, West_RJ

3. Spatial distribution of Showalter Index:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Showalter Index < -4

Day0: Sub_Himalayan_WB, Hry_Chd_Delhi,

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Jharkhand, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Himachal_Pradesh, Odisha,

East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day2: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day3: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, NE_NMMT, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP,

Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day4: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, NE_NMMT, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Odisha,

East_MP, Chhattisgarh, SI_Karnataka,

4. Spatial distribution of TTI:

Day/Index: Subdivision with Total Totals Index > 52

Day0: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir,

West_RJ,

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab,

Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_RJ, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day2: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab,

Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, Chhattisgarh,


Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_RJ, East_RJ, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,


Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_RJ, East_RJ, Odisha, West_MP, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

5. K-Index :> 35[Very Unstable thunderstorm likely]:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with K Index > 40

Day0: Sub_Himalayan_WB, Odisha, Rayalseema, TN_Puducherry, SI_Karnataka,

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Jharkhand, East_UP, Uttarakhand, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh, Telangana,

SI_Karnataka,

Day2: Arunachal_Pradesh, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Odisha, Chhattisgarh,

Day3: Arunachal_Pradesh, NE_NMMT, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh, TN_Puducherry,

SI_Karnataka, Kerala,

Day4: Arunachal_Pradesh, NE_NMMT, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

TN_Puducherry, SI_Karnataka, Kerala,

6. Rainfall and thunder storm activity:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Precipitation > 2 cm

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_RJ,

Day2: Arunachal_Pradesh, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir,

Chhattisgarh,

Day3: Sub_Himalayan_WB, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Himachal_Pradesh,

Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day4: Arunachal_Pradesh, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Uttarakhand, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day5: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, Sub_Himalayan_WB, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, East_MP, Chhattisgarh

NCMRWF: NCUM Regional (4km) (forecast based on 00 UTC the day):

1. Convergence at 850 hPa:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Lower Level Convergence > 15 x 10-5 /s


Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_RJ, East_RJ, Odisha, West_MP, East_MP, Guj_Reg,

Saurashtra_Kutch, Konkan_Goa, Madhya_Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Coastal_AP, Telangana, Rayalseema,

TN_Puducherry, Coastal_Karnataka, NI_Karnataka, SI_Karnataka, Kerala,








TN_Puducherry, Coastal_Karnataka, NI_Karnataka, SI_Karnataka, Kerala,,

2. Low level Vorticity:-Positive Vorticity:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Lower Level Vorticity > 15 x 10-5 /s



Saurashtra_Kutch, Konkan_Goa, Madhya_Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Andaman_Nicobar, Coastal_AP, Telangana,

Rayalseema, TN_Puducherry, Coastal_Karnataka, NI_Karnataka, SI_Karnataka, Kerala,









3. Spatial distribution of Showalter Index:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Showalter Index < -4

Day0: Arunachal_Pradesh, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, East_MP, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh,

Day1: Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP,

Chhattisgarh,

Day2: Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Jammu_Kashmir, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

4. Spatial distribution of TTI:

Day/Index: Subdivision with Total Totals Index > 52

Day0: Arunachal_Pradesh, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, West_MP,

East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day1: Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, East_MP,

Chhattisgarh, Day2: Sub_Himalayan_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh,

Jammu_Kashmir, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

5. K-Index :> 35[Very Unstable thunderstorm likely]:

Day0: Arunachal_Pradesh, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Hry_Chd_Delhi, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir,

Odisha, East_MP, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Rayalseema, SI_Karnataka, Kerala,

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, West_UP, Uttarakhand, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

Day2: Arunachal_Pradesh, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh,

6. Rainfall and thunder storm activity:

Day/Index: Subdivisions with Precipitation > 2 cm

Day0: Arunachal_Pradesh, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, TN_Puducherry,

SI_Karnataka, Kerala,

Day1: Arunachal_Pradesh, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Uttarakhand, Himachal_Pradesh, Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP,

Chhattisgarh, Andaman_Nicobar,

Day2: Arunachal_Pradesh, Assam_Meghalaya, Gangetic_WB, Jharkhand, Bihar, East_UP, Uttarakhand, Himachal_Pradesh,

Jammu_Kashmir, Odisha, East_MP, Chhattisgarh,

IMD GFS (T1534) based on 00 UTC the day:

1. Synoptic Systems:

The trough runs from Marathwada to south Tamilnadu across Interior Karnataka at 925hPa above mean sea level persists.

Wind analysis at 925hPa shows a cyclonic circulation lies over Marathwada & neighbourhood above mean sea level persists

2. Location of Jet and Jet Core (>60kt) at 500hPa : Although there is presence of strong westerly over Northeast India but No Jet core over

Indian region during next 3 days.

3. Spatial distribution of Low Level Vorticity {850hPa Positive Vorticity (>12 x 10-1/s)} Over parts of Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and

Marathwada during next 3 days.

4. Spatial distribution of T-storm Initiation Index, Lifted Index, Total Total Index, CAPE, CIN and Sweat Index [High potential for

Thunderstorm]

T-Storm Initiation Index (> 3.5): Below threshold value > 3.5 is found in entire India during next 3 days.

Lifted Index (< -6): Significantly below threshold value -6 found in GWB, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, East M.P.,

West& East U.P., East Rajasthan, Kerala during next 3 day.

Total Total Index ( > 64) : Significant below threshold value over parts of entire India except Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, West M.P.,

West and East U.P, Bihar, West Rajasthan during next three days.

Sweat Index (> 600): Significant above threshold value on over some parts of Orissa, GWB, West Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi,

Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, CAP, East M.P., West and East U.P, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, SHWB & Sikkim

during next 3 days.

CAPE (> 1000): Mostly along Kerala, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, CAP, GWB, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, East M.P., Bihar, Jharkhand,

East and West U.P., Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Punjab, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 3 days.

CIN (50-200): Mostly seen over South East Region, East Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch, Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh,

Bihar, East and West Uttar Pradesh, N.M.M.T, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Uttaranchal, Orissa, CAP, East

and West Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala ,Telangana, East Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, Jharkhand, GWB,

SHWB and Sikkim, Rayalseema, North and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, Andaman and Nicobar

Islands, Lakshadweep during next 3 days.

Rainfall Activity:

DAY-1:- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Orissa; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over

Arunachal Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, West & East U.P., East M.P.,

Kerala, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, West Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand ; Forecast of Light rainfall activity over Assam and

Meghalaya, SHWB and Sikkim, N.M.M.T, GWB, CAP, Rayalseema, Telangana, North interior Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Rayalseema,

Saurashtra and Kutch, Coastal Karnataka, Vidarbha, Lakshadweep, West M.P.

DAY-2:- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall

activity over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttaranchal, East &West U.P., Kerala, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, GWB, East M.P.,

Lakshadweep; Forecast of Light rainfall activity over West Rajasthan, Telangana, SHWB& Sikkim, North& South Interior Karnataka, Vidarbha,

Assam & Meghalaya, N.M.M.T., Arunachal Pradesh, Rayalseema, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry.

DAY-3 :- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over East U.P, Bihar, Orissa; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over East

M.P., West U.P., J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, GWB, SHWB and

Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Lakshadweep ; Forecast of Light rainfall activity over West Rajasthan, Telangana, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry,

Kerala, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, West M.P., Vidarbha, Assam and Meghalaya, N.M.M.T.

IMD WRF (9km based on 00 UTC of the day):

1. Model Reflectivity (Max. dBz): 5-45 dBZ Model reflectivity over parts of Some parts of Orissa, Vidarbha, Orissa, CAP, GWB, Telangana,

Rayalseema, North and South interior Karnataka, J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh,

East and West Rajasthan, East and West M.P., Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, SHWB and Sikkim, N-E regions, Bihar, Andaman and Nicobar

Islands Region on day1, over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh , East and West Rajasthan,

East and West M.P., North East Region, Telangana ,SHWB and Sikkim, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, GWB, Orissa, Punjab, Jharkhand on

day2, over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, SHWB and Sikkim, GWB, N-E regions, East

Madhya Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Telangana on day3.

2. Spatial distribution of Total Total Index, K-Index, CAPE and CIN [High potential for thunderstorm]

Total Total Index (> 50): Above threshold value >50 is found in entire India Except Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

K-Index (> 35): Below threshold value is seen all over the Country during next 3 days.

CAPE (> 1000): Greater than threshold value over East and West U.P., East M.P., Orissa, Lakshadweep, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu

and Pondicherry, CAP, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Marathwada, Rayalseema, Vidarbha,

Chhattisgarh Jharkhand, Bihar, Telangana, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, Kerala, Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 3 days.

CIN (50-150): The threshold value of the index over parts of Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, East and West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,

Jharkhand, Some part of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, East and West Madhya Pradesh, East and West Rajasthan, CAP ,SHWB and Sikkim,

N.M.M.T., Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, Kerala Telangana, Rayalseema, GWB, Vidarbha, during next 3 days.

3. Rainfall Activity (Forecast)

DAY-1 Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, West U.P., Orissa, Jharkhand,

Arunachal Pradesh; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, SHWB

and Sikkim, GWB, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Bihar, East U.P., Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh West M.P., West Rajasthan, Lakshadweep,;

Forecast of Light rainfall activity over North Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, Telangana, N.M.M.T, Assam and Meghalaya.

DAY-2:- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, West & East

U.P., Bihar, Jharkhand, Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry,

Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Rayalseema, South Interior Karnataka, Vidarbha, J&K, East M.P., Forecast of Light rainfall activity

over Lakshadweep, West Rajasthan, SHWB &Sikkim, N.M.M.T., Telangana, CAP.

DAY- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over Jammu &Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Jharkhand ; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over Vidarbha, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, East M.P., East and West U.P., Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh Bihar, N.M.M.T., Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, SHWB and Sikkim, GWB, Telangana, Lakshadweep ; Forecast of Light rainfall activity over West Rajasthan, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION (DUST ETC) AND ITS FORECAST BASED ON 00 UTC OF DATE:

No significant change in dust concentration was observed over Arabian Peninsula and north western part of India. No significant change in dust

concentration is expected for next three days over IGP and north India. As per AQ-EWS models the air quality is likely to improve and remain in

Satisfactory to Good category on 11.03.2020 owing to strong surface winds and rain. The air quality is likely to remain in Good to Satisfactory

category on 12.03.2020. The air quality is likely to remain in satisfactory category on 13.03.2020.

Delhi – analysis & Forecast Observed

11.03.2020: (9AM)

Forecast:

12.03.2020

Forecast:

13.03.2020

PM10 (micro-g/m3) 112 96 120

PM2.5 (micro-g/m3) 54 40 62

7. PAST OBSERVATIONS:

Satellite past 24hours observations:

OLR Daily (on convection based) INSAT-3D:

Upto 150-280 wm-2 is observed over Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Punjab Haryana Delhi north Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh

east Madhya Pradesh north Chhattisgarh Bihar Jharkhand north-west Orissa west –central Gangetic west Bengal north sub Himalayan west

Bengal Sikkim east Meghalaya central and east Assam Arunachal Pradesh Nagaland north Manipur.

Upto 280-310 is observed over rest Rajasthan rest Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Maharashtra rest Chhattisgarh rest Orissa rest Gangetic west

Bengal rest sub Himalayan west Bengal rest Assam rest Meghalaya rest Manipur Mizoram Tripura rest Karnataka Goa Telangana Andhra

Pradesh Kerala Tamil Nadu Lakshadweep Andaman & Nicobar islands .

Upto 300-340 is observed over north interior Karnataka north south interior Karnataka.

Precipitation: INSAT-3D IMR:

Rainfall upto 10-20 mm is observed over north Jammu & Kashmir.

Rainfall upto 1-10 mm is observed over south-west Jammu & Kashmir east Himachal Pradesh north Uttarakhand central south interior

Karnataka central coastal Kerala.

Precipitation: INSAT-3D HEM: Rainfall upto 7-13.9 mm is observed over north-west Arunachal Pradesh east-central south interior Karnataka.

Rainfall upto 0.149- 7 mm is observed over extreme south–east Madhya Pradesh north-east Vidharbha south-west south interior Karnataka.

Past 24hour DWR Reports:

Radar Station name

Date Time interval of observation (UTC)

Organization of the cells (Isolated single cells/multiple cells/ convective regions/ squall lines) with height of 20 dBZ echo top and maximum reflectivity

Formation w.r.t radar station and Direction of movement

Remarks Associated severe weather if any

Districts affected

Patiala 100300-110252

100300-101200

Nil

10/03/2020 1200 - 1500

Multiple cells dBz=43.5 Ht.- 06-08 Km

NE,SE Sector. Movement- NE-wards

Loharu, Natnaul, Bhiwani, Siwani, Meham, Mahendargarh, Jhajjar, Rohtak, Jind, Hisar And Their Adjoining Areas

10/03/2020 1500 -1800

Multiple cells dBz=38.5 Ht. -04-06 Km

SW,SE Sector. Movement-NE-wards

Meham, Hisar, Jind, Safidon, Israna, Panipat, Karnal And Their Adjoining Areas

10/03/2020 1800 - 2100


SW,SE,NE Sector. Movement-NE-wards

Bhiwani, Rohtak, Jhajjar, Maham, Jind, Sonipat, Panipat, Shamli, Karnal, Kaithal, Dehradun, Mussorie, Agasthamuni, Gangotri And Their Adjoining Areas

10/03/2020 2100- 0000


S,SW,SE Sector. Movement-NE-wards

Bhiwani, Meham, Rohtak, Panipat, Jhajjar, Sonipat, Mahendragarh, Narnaul, Rewari, Shamli, Muzzafarnagar, Sharanpur Haridwar, Rishikesh, Roorkee And Their Adjoining Areas

11/03/2020 0000-0252


SW,SE Sector. Movement-NE-wards

Biswana, Rajgarh, Siwani, Bhiwani, Hisar, Jind, Ishrana, Sonipat, Panipat ,Delhi, Baghpat, Meerut ,Rishikesh, Gangotri, Uttarakashi And Their Adjoining Areas

Radar Station Name

Date Time Interval Of Observation (UTC)

Organization Of The Cells(Isolated Single Cells/ Multiple Cells/ Convective Regions/ Squall Lines) With Height Of 20 dbz echo top and maximum reflectivity

Formation w.r.t. radar station and Direction of movement

Remarks Associated severe weather if any

Districts affected

Jaipur 11-03-20 100300-110300 Multiple cells with average height of 5.5 kms & maximum reflectivity of 52.0 dBZ at 04:12 UTC of 10/03/2020

Multiple cells develop from 03:02 UTC of 10/03/20 towards S,SE ,SW of Jaipur and moved towards E,NE-wards at an approximate speed of 15-20 km/hr and cells weaken at 08:42 UTC of 10/03/2020

-- Thunder storm / Lightning / rain at isolated places

Jaipur,Nagaur Dausa,Ajmer,Tonk,Karauli,Bharatpur,Dholpur,Alwar,

districts

Multiple cells with average height of 5.5 kms & maximum reflectivity of 53.0 dBZ at 18:22 UTC of 10/03/2020

Multiple cells develop from 08:32 UTC of 10/03/20 towards W ,NW of Jaipur and moved towards N,NE-wards at an approximate speed of 15-20 km/hr and cells continue at 02:32 UTC of 11/03/2020

-- Thunder storm / Lightning / Gusty winds accompannied with rain at isolated places and

Hailstorm at isolated places

Jaipur,Nagaur Dausa,Ajmer,Tonk,Karauli,Bharatpur,Dholpur,Alwar, Pali,Bhilwara,Churu,Jhunjhunu,Sikar,Bikaner

districts

Radar Station

name

Date Time

interval

of

observat

ion

(UTC)

Organization of the cells (Isolated single cells/multiple cells/ convective regions/ squall lines) with height of 20 dBZ echo top and maximum reflectivity

Formation w.r.t

radar station

and Direction of

movement

Remarks Associate

d severe

weather if

any

Districts affected

Lucknow 11-03-20 101252- 101822

Multiple cell system formed over 200 Km WSW.

Max. reflectivity was observed to be 48.5 dBZ with height of 6 Km

on 20 dBZ echo top.

The system moved NEly towards the station with

velocity 60 Km/h.

The cells dissipated at around 1822

UTC over 150 Km NE w.r.t. the station.

Light TSRA

Lucknow, Unnao, Kanpur Nagar, Kanpur Dehat,

Barabanki

110202- 110300

Multiple cells system spread over 170 Km WSW to 220 Km WSW. Max. reflectivity was observed to be 54.5 dBZ with height of 9 Km

on 20 dBZ echo top.

The system moved NEly towards the station with

velocity 60 Km/h.

The system persisted till 110300 UTC over 100-150

Km WSW of the station.

TSRA Jalaun, Hamirpur, Fatehpur, Kanpur

Nagar, Kanpur Dehat, Banda,

Unnao

Visakhapatnam 11-03-20 100300-110300

Nil Nil Nil

Goa 11-03-20 100300-110300

Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil

Patna 11-03-20 100300-110259

Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil

Realised TS/HS/SQ during past 24hours ending at 0300 UTC of today (Received from RMCs/MCs):

Region Thunderstorms Hailstorm Squall Duststorm Remarks

Northwest India Ajmer, Bikaner, Barmer, Churu Nil Nil Nil Nil

Northeast India Nil

Nil Nil Nil Nil

East India Nil

Nil Nil Nil Nil

South India Nil

Nil Nil Nil Nil

Central India Satna, Guna Nil Nil Nil Nil

West India Nil

Nil Nil Nil Nil

8. CURRENT WEATHER IMAGERIES:

RAPID RGB Satellite Imagery at 1415IST DWR Mosaic at 1514 IST today

DWR Lucknow reflectivity at 1502IST DWR Patiala reflectivity at 1522IST

Relative Vorticity at 850hPa at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D) 850-925hPa Convergence at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D)

Wind Shear at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D) Wind Shear tendency at 0400 UTC (INSAT-3D)

SEVIRI observed dust at 0515 UTC Water Vapour wind at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D)

SEVIRI Convection at 0500UTC SEVIRI real time Lightning imagery at 0930UTC

9. FORECAST WEATHER IMAGERIES:

24hour Lightning forecast from WRF model valid for today GEFS Probability of wind gust(>25kt) valid for 1500UTC today

GEFS Probability of LAYRH(>70) valid for 1500UTC today Dust Surface and Dust Optical Depth 5 days Forecast (NCUM) for Delhi

10. REALISED WEATHER IMAGERIES:

Accumulated 24 Hour rainfall (in red) recorded at

0830 UTC of today IMR Daily Rainfall

HEM Daily Rainfall

INSAT 3D daily Outgoing Long Wave Radiation

3hourly Past weather at 06,09,12,15,18,21 UTC of yesterday and 00 & 03hrs UTC of today

Tmax Departure Tmax Tendency Tmax

MSLP Departure MSLP Tendency MSLP

RH at 1200 UTC yesterday RH at 0300 UTC today

11. IMPORTANT LINKS:

1. For GEFS LAYRH, SCP, Wind Gust Forecast Probabilities:

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/gfs_based.php

2. For GEFS LAYRH, SCP, Wind Gust Archive Products:

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/archive_thunderstorm.php

3. For 24hour Lightning forecast (WRF) from IITM:

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/lightening_flash/index.php

4. For Real-time Lightning products from foreignsat:

http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/

5. For DWR mosaic (overlayed with lightning/clouds/winds etc.):

https://ddgmui.imd.gov.in/radar/leaflet-map-csv-master/

6. Current Nowcast Warnings

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/stationwise-nowcast-warning.php

7. Thunderstorm Observation, Prediction and Monitoring web page:

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/ts_prediction_system/index.php

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/gfs_based.php

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/archive_thunderstorm.php

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/lightening_flash/index.php

http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/

https://ddgmui.imd.gov.in/radar/leaflet-map-csv-master/

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/stationwise-nowcast-warning.php

https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/ts_prediction_system/index.php

12. WEATHER SYMBOLS:

Documents

India Meteorological Departmentnwp.imd.gov.in/fdp_now/fdp_bulletins/fdp.pdf · 2020-03-07 · India Meteorological Department FDP STORM Bulletin No. 06 (07-03-2020) 1. SUMMARY OF