In-depth Analysis of Census Data on Employment

Country Course on Analysis and Dissemination of Population and Housing Census Data with Gender

Concern24-28 October 2011, Jakarta, Indonesia

Economically Active Populationor Labour Force

Labour Force or the Economically Active population is defined as that part of the population that supplies and willing to supply its labour for the production of economic goods and services during the time reference period chosen for investigation.

The labour force differs from the concept of working age population. Working age population is the number of persons in the population in a specified age group eg. 15-64 years or 15 to 59 years.

Example Population(20.4m)

Male Female (44%) (56%)

Unemployed(5.4%)

Employed(94.6%)

Labour Force(49.5%)

Not in Labor Force(50.5%)

37% Full time students38% Engaged in household work16% Retired and old age5% Disabled4% Other

Male Female(62.2%) (37.7%)

3% Employer57% Employee30% Own account worker10% Unpaid family worker Labour Force Participation Rate

Male(67.8%); Female (33.2)

Sources of Employment/Labour Force Data1. Census of Population2. Labour Force Surveys3. Socio-economic Surveys

Concepts used in Collecting Data1. Gainful worker approach2. Labour force approach3. Labour utilization approach

1. Gainful Worker Approach It is based on the idea that each person has more or less a stable

functional role either as a breadwinner or as house wife or student etc. The main purpose of this concept was to enumerate the occupation of the person. Thus persons seeking work for the first time were left out of the labour force. Unemployment and underemployment were of secondary consideration. No reference period for data collection.

2. Labour Force Approach The labour force approach was developed to remedy the

deficiencies of the gainful worker approach in the USA in 1930s. It is an economic concept to capture the labour supply for economic goods and services. It includes both the employed and the unemployed. It specifies a minimum age and a definite time reference period.

Labour Utilization Approach Due to the large number of underemployed persons in the labour

force in developing countries, this approach has been developed to measure the extent of underemployment. It uses the same approach as in labour force in terms of minimum age limits and the reference period but the classification of categories differ.

1. Adequately utilized 2. Inadequately Utilized (a) unemployed (b) inadequately utilized by hours of work (c) inadequately utilized by level of income (d) inadequately utilized by mismatch between education and occupation Persons falling to categories (b), (c) and (d) are the underemployed. They are included under employed in the labour force approach.

Limitations of Data(a) Variation in length of time reference period The size of the labour force could vary depending on the length

of the reference period as marginal members of the workforce could be included if the reference period is too long.

(b) Variations in the definitions used Variations in the definition of persons by employment status

particularly the unpaid family workers.

(c) Variations in age group covered by economic activity The minimum age limit on economic activity is often set to

conform to the legal minimum age for paid employment and compulsory school attendance.

(d) Changes in concepts and other limitations - Different concepts used in measurement - Errors in reporting occupation and age - Problems of measuring primary and secondary occupations - Variations in the formulation of the questionnaire - Selection of the dates for enumeration - Problem of enumerating seasonal workers

Labour Supply1. Births (the rate largely determines the supply at entry ages)2. Deaths (before entry to the labour force and in working ages)3. Migration (within working ages)

Labour Demand• Growth of Output• Growth of Productivity• Other (a) Information and knowledge of job opportunities (b) Attitudes and preferences (c) Educational attainment and skills (d) Compatibility between child bearing and child caring roles

Male Labour Force Participation Rates, 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10-

14

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

30-

34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65+

Age Group

Male Labour Force Participation Rates in Japan, 2005

020406080

100120

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

Age Group

Rate

Female Labour Force Participation Rates, 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Age Group

Rate

Female Labour Force Participation Rates in Japan, 2005

0

20

40

60

80

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

Age Group

Rate

Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, In Sri Lanka-1971 and 2001

Male Female Male Female10-14 6.0 3.9 1.6 0.915-19 48.3 26.7 29.8 18.620-24 88.9 43.1 75.0 42.725-29 96.9 40.2 88.1 39.530-34 97.7 35.2 91.3 37.035-39 97.5 32.9 91.8 37.940-44 96.8 30.8 91.1 38.345-49 95.7 29.5 89.3 37.150-54 92.3 24.7 84.3 31.855-59 81.1 17.6 73.1 24.360-64 66.2 11.0 55.8 15.265+ 42.6 5.6 32.6 6.9

1971 2001Age Group

Assumptions Regarding Future Population and Labour Force Participation Rates by

Age Groups and Sex

1. The future male and female population by age and sex can be obtained from Population Projections if available and the researcher is satisfied with the assumptions made with regard to fertility, mortality and migration.

2. Assumptions regarding age-sex labour force participation rates. (a) Male

- Young ages (10-14, 15-19, 20-24)

- Middle ages ( 25-55) - Older ages (55-65+)

(b) Females - Young ages (10-14, 15-19) - Child bearing ages (20-44) - Older ages (45-65+)

In the case of females participation is largely influenced by marital status, educational attainment, attitudes and job preferences.

In order to determine the future rates of labour force participation, it is necessary to examine the past trends of the population under study as well as the rates of other populations which have a similar economic structures.

Example of Labour Force Projection

Population LFPR Labour Force2015 2015 2015(1) (2) (1) x (2)

10-14 792 4 3215-19 795 37 29420-24 771 90 69425-29 794 97 77130-34 884 98 86635-39 883 98 86540-44 801 98 78545-49 725 97 70450-54 676 94 63555-59 629 78 49160-64 534 63 33665+ 1049 40 420Total 6,894

Male Labour Force Projection, 2015

Age Group

Measures of Labour Force and Employment

• Labour Force Participation Rate

LPR = No. of Employed + No. of Unemployed x 100

Population 15-64• Employment Rate ER = No. of employed x 100 Labour Force

• Unemployment Rate UR = No. of unemployed x 100 Labour Force

(These rates can be measured for Gender)

Employment by Demographic and SES factors

• Why explore employment data?• Employment • by sex• by age• by marital status• by urban/rural• by other ses variables • by occupation• By industry

Entries, Withdrawals and Net additions of Male Labour Force during 2010-2015

Entries to the Labour Force : (32+262+406+57)= 757 Withdrawals from Labour Force : (-10-10-18-37-122-104-214)= - 515Net Additions to the Labour Force: 757 – 515 = 242Average annual net additions = 242 / 5 = 48

Age Group 2010 2015 Change10-14 32 32 +3215-19 288 294 +26220-24 714 694 +40625-29 866 771 +5730-34 875 866 035-39 795 865 -1040-44 722 785 -1045-49 672 704 -1850-54 613 635 -3755-59 440 491 -12260-64 284 336 -10465+ 350 420 -214

Male Labour Force (000)

Major Industrial Categories: Agriculture 1. Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry 2. Fishing

Industry 1. Mining and Quarrying 2. Manufacturing 3. Electricity, Gas and Water 4. Construction

Services 1. Wholesale and Retail Trade 2. Hotels and Restaurants 3. Transport and Communication 4. Banking, Insurance and Real Estate etc 5. Ownership of Dwellings 6. Government Services 7. Private Services

Employment Projections by Industry

(a) Examine the average annual growth rates of Output in the major industrial sectors in the past (eg. during the past five years)

(b) Examine the average annual growth rates of Employment in the major industrial sectors in the past (eg. during the past five years)

(c) Using data in (a) and (b) estimate the average rate of growth of Productivity in the major industrial sectors

(d) Make projections of Output for major industrial sectors for the future years (or obtain them from National Plans)

(e) Determine the future rates of growth of Productivity for each industrial sector by taking into consideration of the changes in the productivity of capital and trained manpower.

(f) Apply the projected rates of growth of Output to projected growth rates of Productivity and estimate the future Employment.

Major Occupational Categories

1. Legislators, Senior Officials and Managers2. Professionals3. Technicians and Associated Professionals4. Clerks5. Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers6. Skilled Agricultural and fishery Workers7. Craft and Related Workers

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total1 x x x x x x x x2 x x x x x x x x3 x x x x x x x x4 x x x x x x x x5 x x x x x x x x6 x x x x x x x x7 x x x x x x x x8 x x x x x x x x9 x x x x x x x x

10 x x x x x x x x11 x x x x x x x x12 x x x x x x x x

Total x x x x x x x x

Employment: Industry/Occupation Matrix

Indistrial CatergoriesOccupational Categories

Employment Projections by Occupation

(a) Obtain the future employment projections by industry from the earlier exercise.

(b) Construct an Industry/Occupation employment matrix as shown in the previous table at least for two points in time.

(c) Examine the changes in industry/occupation employment coefficients.

(d) Make changes in the coefficients as appropriate (e) Apply those coefficients to the projected employment by

industry to obtain the employment projections by occupations.

B. Needs Based

The need or requirement requires an estimate based on professional judgement of the number of workers necessary to attain and maintain a particular level of service.

In some sectors like education and health, employment projections are made on need based taking into occount certain norms such as pupil / teacher or doctor / population ratios.

The ratio method needs three basic sets of data: the existing supply of manpower of the type under consideration, the normative ratio to be used, and the projected population.

Employed Population

• The employed population comprises all persons above the

minimum age specified for measurement of the economically active

population who, during a short reference period of one week

(Preferred option) (a) performed some work for pay, profit or

family gain, in cash or kind; or (b) were temporarily absent from a

job in which they had already worked and to which they maintained

a formal attachment or from a self – employment activity such as a

business enterprise, a farm or a service undertaking.

• Employment Status

a. Employee

b. Employer

c. Self – employed or own account worker

d. Unpaid Family Worker

The End