Improved National Framework on Housing Needs and Housing Needs Estimation

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11th National Convention on Statistics (NCS)EDSA Shangri-La Hotel

October 4-5, 2010

IMPROVISED NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING

NEEDS ESTIMATION

byNelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda, Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, Plenee Grace J.

Castillo, and Eleanore V. Ramos

For additional information, please contact:

Author’s name Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda, Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, PleneeGrace J. Castillo, and Eleanore V. Ramos

Designation Consultant, Executive Director, Statistician V/Chief (RITD), StatisticianV/Chief (training Division), Statistician III

Affiliation Statistical Research and Training Center Address J & S Building, 104 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman, Quezon City

Tel. no. +632-9297543 / +632-4260620 / +632-4361426 E-mail [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],[email protected], [email protected]


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IMPROVED NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS ANDHOUSING NEEDS ESTIMATION

by

Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis,

Plenee Grace J. Castillo, Eleanore V. Ramos1

ABSTRACT

The efforts of government and the private sector to address the challenges ofthe growing housing need in the country depend largely on the reliability of existinghousing statistics combined with having the appropriate framework that will guide theestimation of current and future housing needs. The Statistical Research and TrainingCenter (SRTC), in collaboration with Housing and Urban Development and CoordinatingCouncil (HUDCC), under the project “Development of Shelter Monitoring InformationSystem” recommended an improved housing needs framework which does not onlyfocus on backlog, per se, but also on all components of Housing Needs that go into itsestimation process and target setting. The concepts for estimating housing needs in therevised framework are based on principles prescribed by the United Nations (UN). The

proposed framework has two dimensions: (i) construction of housing units; and (ii)housing support and services, to differentiate the “physical” aspect of the housingindustry and the “social” aspect of housing to improve the environment for healthy living.The Housing Support and Services consists of Tenure Security, Site Development,Slum Upgrading, House repair and Housing Finance. The first dimension and mainfocus of estimation, Construction of housing units, consists of Accumulated or currentneeds and Recurrent or future needs, as two main components. Accumulated needscomprise the provision of conventional housing units for households occupying livingquarters of an unacceptable type and those doubled-up with other households living inacceptable housing units. Recurrent or future needs comprise housing needs expectedto arise during the Plan period covered by the estimates which include housing units for(a) new households formed, and (b) households whose housing units were lost due toobsolescence, floods, fire, urban renewal/slum clearance, etc. These items wereestimated by utilizing data from the 1990 and Censuses of Population and Housing, and

2007 Population Census. The estimated housing needs from 2007-2010 is 3.6 millionunits. The proposed national framework on housing needs is recommended to be thebasis for coming up with estimates on stock and demands for housing as well as targetsetting for planning and decision-making initiatives on decent shelters, with acceptableconditions, that Filipinos deserve to have.

KEY WORDS AND PHRASES: housing need, housing framework, housing backlog

I. INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE

In order to ensure security of shelter for the Filipino family and provide affordable anddecent housing, especially for the poor, the 2005-2010 Medium-Term Philippine Development

Plan (MTPDP) cites three (3) key challenges for the housing construction sector. Thesechallenges are: (i) meeting the rapidly growing housing need; (ii) expanding participation ofprivate sector in socialized housing financing and construction; and (iii) strengthening capacityof housing institutions.

1 Project Consultant, SRTC Executive Director, Statistician V and Chief, Research and Information Technology Division, Statistician

V and Chief, Training Division, and Statistician III. Statistical Research and Training Center, 104 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman,

Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines; e-mail: [email protected]

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Government and private sector can conceive of well-thought strategies and convergentaction plan in addressing these challenges. Its success, however, largely depends on thereliability of existing housing statistics and appropriateness of framework to guide estimationprocedure.

The Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC), as the research and training arm

of the Philippine Statistical System, in collaboration with Housing and Urban Development andCoordinating Council (HUDCC), conducted a research project entitled “Housing Backlog Study”under the “Development of Shelter Monitoring Information System (DSMIS).” Two of theexpected outputs in this project are: (i) review of the framework on housing needs vis-à-visbacklog and (ii) make recommendations of an alternative framework of housing needs. From therecommended framework, better estimate of housing needs vis-à-vis backlog is generated.

The series of consultations involving participation of inter-agencies, both from thegovernment and private sectors, resulted in an “Improved Framework of Housing Needs.” Itshould be emphasized that this study is not limited to the “backlog” as a component of theHousing Needs but includes all other components that go into the estimation process of housingneeds and target setting.

The review on the framework on “Housing Backlog” was done within the purview of thedifferent MTPDPs. In particular, review different estimates on housing needs, backlogs, targetsand accomplishments involving several planning periods was conducted.

In the plan periods 1987-1992 and 1993-1998, the housing need or the deficiency inhousing is composed of 1) Future needs of new households due to increase in population orhousehold attributed to new formation and in-migration, and replacement of existing stockattributed to age and deterioration; and 2) Backlog consists of doubled-up households,substandard dwelling units, required slum upgrading and homeless. In the plan periods 1999-2004 and 2005-2010, the frameworks on housing need were not adequately defined. For 2005-2010 in particular, the composition of the housing need of Housing Backlog, Substandard

(Upgrading) and New Households. Housing Backlog is composed of doubled-up housing,replacement and/or Informal Settlers and Homeless. All the terms used in the estimation ofhousing need were not defined in the Plan document.

For any housing framework, it has to be well-defined and comprehensive as it will be thebasis for preparing more accurate estimates for housing targets not only for socialized housingbut also for other stakeholders in the housing sector.

II. REVISITING THE UNITED NATIONS’ COMPONENT METHOD OF ESTIMATINGHOUSING NEEDS

Concept of “Housing Need”

The United Nations defines housing needs as the number of conventional dwellings orother suitable living quarters that need to be constructed or repaired in order to bring housingconditions, as of a particular point in time, up to nationally adopted standards, plus the numberthat need to be constructed, repaired and/or maintained to ensure that housing conditionsremain at the standard level over a stated period of time.

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“Housing need” and “housing requirements” have the same meaning and are usedinterchangeably throughout the UN manual.

UN has broadly classified the principal components of housing needs in developingcountries to three major categories,2 namely:

1. Accumulated needs (housing needs which exist at the beginning of the period covered bythe estimates)a. Number of dwellings or other acceptable living quarters* required for:

(i) Households without shelter (homeless)(ii) Households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type(iii) Households involuntarily doubled-up with other households in living quarters of

an acceptable type(iv) Reduction in levels of density (persons per room ratio or area per person) in

acceptable living quarters to a desired levelb. Number of living quarters which are of an acceptable type but in need of repair or

replacement2. Recurrent or future needs (needs expected to arise during the period covered by the

estimates)a. Number of dwellings or other acceptable living quarters required for:

(i) Projected increase in the number of households during the period covered bythe estimates

(ii) Replacement of living quarters of an acceptable type which will be lost fromthe inventory during the period covered by the estimates

b. Number of living quarters that will require maintenance and repairs during the periodcovered by the estimates.

3. Allowance in the estimates for vacant dwellings

It is recognized that not all the above components be taken into account by alldeveloping countries in estimating housing needs. The components of the future needs are

universally applicable since they represent the housing required for population growth,replacement of housing as it reaches the end of its useful life and recurrent repairs andmaintenance required to keep the housing stock up to established standards. However, thecomponents to be considered in estimating accumulated needs will vary according to thehousing conditions in the country concerned.

“Accumulated needs” which is also “current needs,” include not only accumulatedbacklogs such as housing needs of doubled-up households and the homeless, those living inunacceptable type of housing but also include replacement of dilapidated housing units andrepair of housing units at the start of the plan period. “Recurrent or future needs” is simplyknown as the future needs due to increase in the number of households and replacement ofhousing units that will be lost during the inventory period. The third major category in the UN

Component Method is “allowance in the estimates for vacant buildings”, not usually included inthe estimation of housing needs in the country.

In setting up of targets, UN emphasized that it is more important to target the immediatereplacements of inventory losses as these happen, because not doing so will contribute toserious shortage of housing and lead to deterioration of the housing stock. On the rate ofreplacement, the UN did not specify any value and allowed countries to decide. However, 100

2 Source: United Nations, Methods of Estimating Housing Needs, Studies in Methods Series F. No. 12, New York, 1967.

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years was suggested as the life of houses in European countries. Also, provision for newhousing unit for doubled-up households may not be as urgent as those housing units required toreplace dilapidated and unacceptable units, and provide housing for newly formed households.

A comparison is made between and among framework as shown in UN ComponentMethod and those of NSO Operationalization3 and HUDCC’s Guidelines for the Preparation of

Local Shelter Plans.4 There is a significant difference in the composition. Below is the summary:

UN ComponentNSO

OperationalizationHUDCC

GuidelinesDifference

Housing Need Housing Need Need for New Units

1. AccumulatedNeeds:

1.1 Doubled-upHouseholds inacceptabledwelling units

1.2 ReplaceHousing units ofunacceptable type(salvaged materials)

1.3 Householdswithout shelter

1.4 HUs of

acceptable type butin need of repair orreplacement

1. Backlog

1.1 Doubled-upfamilies living inboth acceptable& unacceptable

dwelling units

1.2 Unacceptabledwellings

No mention

No mention

1. Backlog:

1.1 Doubled-upHHs living inboth acceptable& unacceptable

dwelling units

1.2 Displaced Units

1.3 Homeless

No item for

replacement ofdilapidatedacceptable housingunits.

Terminology

- UN includes onlythose involuntarydoubled-up andpotential households

living in acceptabledwelling units

- HUDCC refers HUs indanger areas while UNand NSO refer to HUsof unacceptableconstruction materials.HUDCC is much morelimited in scope.

- Same definition ofhomeless with UN

- HUDCC treats this as

needing upgrading butdid not considerreplacement ofdilapidated structures atthe start of Plan period.

2. Recurrent orfuture needs

2.1 HUs forincrease in HHs

2.2 Replace HUsdue to inventory loss,obsolescence, etc.

but did notrecommend any rate.

2. Future Need

2.1 New HHs

2.2 Replacement ofinventory losses.NSO used in its

housing projection2% for HUs made ofconcrete, 3.3% madeof mixed materials,5% for lightmaterials.

2. Future Populationgrowth

2.1 HUs for increasein HHs

No provision in theguidelines

- No difference

- HUDCC providedreplacement in Planperiod 1987-1992 but

did not provide forinventory loss ofhousing stock insucceeding Planperiods.

3 The National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO now NSO) in 1979 prepared a Housing Needs in the Philippines 1970-2000

projections published as Monograph No. 18 of a UNFPA-NCSO Population Research Project.4 Formulated as reference of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the preparation of a local shelter plan.

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III. RECOMMENDED FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS

Since the UN Component Method of Estimating Housing Needs considered not only onbacklog component but also the needs of projected households and replacement allowance due

to inventory losses, it is recommended that the PSS look into the evaluation made using this UNComponent Method which has been the product of exhaustive research contributed not only byinternational housing experts but UN-member countries as well. The proposed framework forhousing need is an adaptation of the UN Component method to suit local conditions. It has twodimensions: (i) construction of housing units; and (ii) housing support and services. Therationale for this proposal is to identify the “physical” aspect of the housing industry and the“social” aspect of housing to improve the environment for healthy living. Both are addressed bygovernment’s housing assistance program which can be in a form of cash vs. loan, house andlot, lot only, temporary shelters, community improvement, etc.

The physical aspect of housing needs would be the construction of acceptable dwellingsas living quarters, therefore, the unit of reporting the housing need would be in terms of housing

units constructed, regardless of the type of building. This is composed of:

1. Accumulated or current needs - is defined as housing needs that exist at the beginningof the Plan Period covered by the estimate, and include the following components:a. Number of conventional Housing Units (HUs) required to provide for:

•

•

•

Households without shelter (homeless)

Households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type, e.g., barong-barong, houses made of makeshift or salvaged materials, and those residingin non-conventional dwellings.

Households that are doubled-up with other households in acceptable dwelling

units with the assumption that all those doubled-up households are in need ofseparate housing accommodation.

b. Number of conventional housing units which are dilapidated or condemned to bereplaced.

2. Recurrent or Future needs – housing needs expected to arise during the Plan Periodcovered by the estimates, it could be annual, medium term, or long term.a. Number of housing units required to provide to new households covered by the

Plan Period.b. Replacement of housing units of acceptable type that were lost during the period

covered by the estimates. Losses include housing units lost due to obsolescence,floods, fire, urban renewal/slum clearance, etc. This can be done by age andconstruction materials based on trends observed between censuses.

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The following chart will show the different components that go into the estimation ofhousing construction:

Housing Needs: Construction of Housing Units

Housing Needs

Recurrent/FutureHousing Needs

Accumulated or CurrentHousing Needs

Number of ConventionalHousing Units provided

for:1. Homeless2. Households in

unacceptable type3. Doubled-up

households in

Number of HousingUnits for NewHouseholds

Number of HousingUnits to ReplaceInventory Losses

Replacement ofDilapidated/CondemnedConventional Housing

Units

The UN components pertaining to “Reduction in levels of density in acceptable livingquarters to a desired level” and “allowance for vacant dwellings” are not considered in theproposal. There is no need to consider the “reduction of density to a desired level,” because alldoubled-up households have already been considered, therefore, the overcrowding due todoubling-up may have been eased. In the “allowance for vacant dwellings,” it was observedthat in all census years 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 there are always vacant housing unitscounted. Therefore, estimates would be limited to occupied dwellings or housing units.

For the Housing Support and Services, this is a new attempt to separate the social

aspects of housing in the estimate of housing needs. The proposed framework which may belooked into more closely involves Tenure Security, Housing Finance, Site Development, SlumUpgrading and House Repair.

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HousingFinance

SlumUpgrading

Siteevelopmen

HouseRepair

TenureSecurity

Housing Support and Services

HousingNeeds

For Tenure Security, the Community-based Management System (CBMS) list of citiesand municipalities with a list of informal settlers may be used as benchmark data in the absenceof a more complete list of areas where informal settlers are located.

Housing Finance is measured by the number of residential unit construction financed bythe government and loan availment/releases or the volume of mortgage take-outs or purchases.Financing institution such as Housing Guaranty Corporation (HGC), Home DevelopmentMortgage Fund (HDMF), Social Security System (SSS) and Government Service InsuranceSystem (GSIS) have data on this.

For Site Development, National Housing Authority (NHA) may have a list of CommunityMortgage Projects (CMPs) for Metro Manila and the local government may have also some list

to provide for benchmark data. In the Urban Development and Housing Act (UDHA)implementation, the local government units (LGUs) are mandated to implement Section 7 whichrequires the conduct of an inventory of all lands and improvements within their localities incoordination with the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) and to update thisinventory every three years and furnish the HUDCC a copy including updates. Section 8provides for the identification of sites for socialized housing and the LGUs in coordination withNHA, HLURB, National Mapping Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), and the LandManagement Bureau (LMB) shall identify lands for socialized housing and resettlement areas,taking into consideration the degree of availability of basic services and facilities, theiraccessibility and proximity to job sites and other economic opportunities, and the actual numberof registered beneficiaries. If all these areas are identified, then these can be programmed forimplementation so that Housing Support and Services can be planned adequately to realize the

provisions of the socialized housing law.

For Slum Upgrading, Clearance, the benchmark data may come from the inventory ofareas identified by the local governments in accordance with the provisions of UDHA althoughthe NHA and HLURB may have its own listing of Area for Priority Development (APDs) as astart up data for this framework.

In the UN component method, failure to meet housing requirements as they occur hasresulted in a mounting backlog of housing needs the magnitude of which equals or even

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exceeds the existing supply of housing in some countries. Therefore, housing backlog is thedifference of Housing Needs and Accomplishment at time (t). This can be decomposed into twocomponents, that is, the backlog is the sum of:

a. The difference between housing needs and targets, and

b. The difference between targets and accomplishments.

Housing Backlog is simply the unmet housing needs. Targets and Accomplishments hereinare those goal statements and those implemented plans and programs in previous year byconcerted efforts of the government and private sectors. This is true for both construction ofunits and housing support and services. To illustrate:

HOUSING NEEDS

TARGET

ACCOMPLISHME

Backlog

IV. OPERATIONALIZATION OF HOUSING NEEDS FRAMEWORK

The estimation made use of 2000 Census of Population and Housing results asbenchmark data for extrapolating estimates of housing needs from year 2007 onwards while2007 Census of Population (2007 POPCEN) which has reported a preliminary release on thetotal count of population was used as the jump-off point in projecting households at the regionallevel.

The step by step procedure in the estimation of housing needs for 2000 is enumerated

below:

1. The 2000 CPH complete census file (100% coverage) was re-tabulated into the followingtables with the purpose of identifying the year built of housing units, the identification ofselected indicators as input to the identification of unacceptable structures and householdsand the actual number of households residing in these housing units.

Table 1. Type of Construction Materials of Housing Units (HUs) by Year built, 2000 CPHTable 2. Type of Construction Materials by Selected Indicators of HUs, 2000 CPH

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Table 3. Number of Households by Type of Construction Materials of HUs by SelectedIndicators, 2000 CPH

Prior to the identification of type of construction materials, all housing units werereclassified into the construction materials category for roof and walls: 1) Strong materials; 2)Light materials; 3) Salvaged/makeshift materials; 4) Mixed but predominantly strong

materials; 5) Mixed but predominantly light materials; and 6) Mixed but predominantlysalvaged materials. The reclassification was done in order to describe the housing unitbased on the combination of the construction materials of the walls and roof. Thisclassification can be used to tabulate the characteristics of the housing units in accordancewith selected indicators, using the type of construction materials as the common variable inthese tabulations.

2. Four selected indicators are identified from the census file in the following hierarchicalmanner:

Indicator No. 1 - Homeless - the housing units were identified by their codes in the type ofbuilding under the “Others” category. The housing units under this category are those livingquarters found during the census that were not intended for human habitation like those

staying under the bridge, in caves, sleeping in kariton5, or those staying in abandoned buses,in agricultural/industrial/ commercial structures, etc.

Indicator No. 2 – Dilapidated/condemned - the structures were identified by looking at theType of Repair categories under Dilapidated and condemned. These structures are to bereplaced during the planning period.

Indicator No. 3 - Informal settlers – these were identified through the tenure status of the lotoccupied by the housing unit. All those found to be under tenure status of rent-free lotwithout consent of the owner are identified as belonging to the informal settlers.

Indicator No. 4 - Marginal housing units – This include those classified under “Others HUs”category (that is, neither falling under any of the above indicators) and at the same time,classified in the type of construction materials used under the “makeshift/salvage materials”and “mixed but predominantly makeshift/salvaged materials” categories.

In the tabulation process, when a housing unit is classified in any of these indicators,then they are no longer counted anywhere else. This makes the housing unit count mutuallyexclusive from the rest as far as the selected indicators are concerned. The rest of thehousing units are classified under Other HUs, which is a residual estimate from the totalhousing units. In the report, number of informal settlers and households living in marginalhousing are combined as one of those under unacceptable housing units.

3. Based on the provincial tabulations of the three tables, regional totals were aggregated bythe selected indicators to obtain national totals.

4. The results of Table 3 (Number of households) minus the results in Table 2 (Number

Housing Units) in the special tabulation by construction materials yielded the doubled-uphouseholds also classified by construction materials.

5. Replacement rate was generated based on the cohort population of buildings anchored onthe year the housing unit was constructed.. As a limitation of the study, the percentagelosses of housing units by type of construction materials cannot as yet be generated exceptfor NCR which this study has adopted as the percentage rate of replacement of acceptable

5 Sleeping in cariton is not anymore considered as part of “Homeless” in succeeding censuses.

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structures in estimating future housing needs. The average loss annually in Metro Manila is1.33%.

6. Summary of the consolidated results of the selected indicators was generated showing thetotal number of housing units. A table showing regional summary was also obtained. Thepurpose of the table showing the type of construction materials is to identify which structures

are unacceptable based on minimum standard of quality. The type of construction materialsis used as the minimum standard of quality in the meantime that other quality measures, likenumber of persons per room or area occupied per person, are not yet considered.

7. After the national estimates were done using the aggregated tabulations from the provincialand regional levels, the detailed components can be computed for each region. In case theregional totals do not tally with the basic table of construction materials by the selectedhousing indicators, the total of the table on construction materials should prevail.

Translation of estimates from May 1, 2000 to July 1, 2000

The tabulations generated above were sourced from the result of the CPH as of May 1,2000. The initial population total used by the TWG on Population Projection of NSCB as

benchmark for projecting the population from 2000 up to 2010 was 76,946,500 as of July 1,2000. The SRTC Research Team adopted this total to estimate for the housing needs as ofJuly 1, 2000 for comparison with future estimates based on the August 1, 2007 Census ofPopulation also translated into the population as of July 1, 2007 so that it would be easy tocompare these estimates with the population projection using the medium growth assumption.

8. Estimates of the number of households and number of housing units as of July 1, 2000 wereobtained by applying the percentage share of tabulations above to population projection asof July 1, 2000, that is, 76,946,500. Applying the same procedure to regional figures is doneto get the regional estimates.

Estimation of Housing Needs as of July 1, 2000 using the 2007 Census of Population

regional configuration of provinces

9. The resulting July 1, 2000 estimates are reconfigured using regional configuration of theCensus of Population 2007 due to changes in regional, provincial or city/municipalcomposition. The reason for decomposing the 2000 CPH into 2007 configuration is togenerate new indicators to use in the determination of the number of households in the 2007POPCEN based on the characteristics of the population/housing in 2000. In addition,housing needs on the basis of the new configuration of the regions will also be estimated asbasis in evaluating the trend of the housing needs between 2000 and 2010 when the CPH2010 becomes available.

10. Estimate the number of households based on the 2000 CPH re-configured to 2007 regional

composition. This is due to the fact that 2007 POPCEN has yet to come up with the numberof households in its final tabulation. Since the housing needs estimation requires the use ofnumber of households to be able to estimate the number of housing units occupied at thetime of the census, there is a need to estimate the number of households and the housingneeds as of July 1, 2007. Using average household size method, estimated number ofhouseholds by region is generated using 2000 regional average household size. However,before this was done, the regional composition of 2007 Census had to be matched with theregional composition of the 2000 CPH because there were some changes in the provincialcomposition.

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11. To determine the number of housing units as of July 1, 2007, the density of the 2000 housingunits was computed based on the 2007 regional configuration, by region and by constructionmaterials. Density of housing is the number of households divided by the number of housingunits by construction materials and by region in 2000. Using the density of housinggenerated from 2000 CPH, the number of housing units was estimated by region. Thedensity by construction materials was also computed to be used in estimating housing units

by type of construction materials in 2007 and for 2008, 2009 and 2010.

12. Since we have a structure of the selected indicators in 2000 CPH, we used them toextrapolate the same characteristics in the estimates of 2007 the number of housing unitsand number of households. This yielded an estimate of the doubled-up households, byselected indicators and by region.

13. For the sake of trend analysis at the regional level, with the new composition of someregions, estimates of housing units, number of households and doubled-up households werealso done as of July 1 2000 using the 2007 regional composition. The 2000 data will providethe basic data to monitor the extent of accomplishment of the housing program in the nextcensus. It may be mentioned, that when the accumulated needs of 1990 have not been metbetween 1990 and 2000, then this becomes part of the “backlog” in housing construction, if

the objective of the government is to be able to replace all these unacceptable structuresover a period of time.

Population Projection

14. Since the 2007 actual population count is lower than the level of the official populationprojection under medium population growth assumption, it was not therefore practical to usethe official population projection. Doing so will lead to over-estimation of housing needs. Inview of this, SRTC Research Team decided to prepare its own population projection by usingthe exponential growth rate formula6 and applied the population growth rate computedbetween the 2000 CPH and 2007 POPCEN to the initial population used by the TWG as ofJuly 1, 2000 in preparing the official projection. Also prepared was the population projectionstarting 2000 with the same base population as used by the official projection so that there isa means of comparing the effect of the increase in the number of households which willincrease the estimate of housing needs.

15. After the population is determined at the national level for 2008, 2009, and 2010 based onthe growth rate between the two censuses (2000 CPH and 2007 POPCEN), the nationalestimate is distributed to the different regions following the pattern of the distribution in 2007.Then the number of households is calculated using the derived household size of thedecomposed 2000 data that follows the 2007 regional composition of provinces. Next, thehousing density of the region as obtained from the 2000CPH (computed from thedecomposed regional classification) is now applied to this projected household to determinethe number of housing units. The number of households can be estimated in the samemanner as done in 2007 by using the average household size of the configured data of 2000.

16. Considering that one of the components of future needs is the increase in the number ofhouseholds, the increase is determined at the household level after distribution of nationalestimate to regions is performed.

17. There is a need to compute for the allowance for replacements annually. The inputs neededare the acceptable housing units according to the construction materials of the unit. Takenote that all tabulations were done using the type of construction materials as a common

6 Exponential growth rate: r = [ln (Pn ÷ Po)] ÷ t

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variable. The allowance for replacements of acceptable structures can only be computedafter identifying from the Housing Inventory which are acceptable and which are not.

18. Similar tabulations are generated as mentioned in item 6 are produced. These contain thehousing needs of the projected population 2008-2010.

Presentation of Estimates of Housing Needs: 2007 – 2010

19. Summary of different annual estimates of accumulated needs was established. It is notcorrect to present the levels of estimates by year and then average the total because it willnot show the increments of the needs yearly, thus only the difference between two estimatesis presented so that the total housing needs for the period from 2007 to 2010 can beaggregated at the end of the period. The rationale to this is because at the start of theinventory of housing stocks, all unacceptable structures are to be replaced including thedoubled-up households during the planned period or based on the objectives of the housingprogram whether to hasten the elimination of all unacceptable structures within the plannedperiod or target only what the government is able to provide. Furthermore, the annualincrements of unacceptable structure contribute to the addition of unacceptable structures at

the end of the period which can contribute to additional backlogs of unmet needs for thissubcomponent. Based on the literature on housing needs estimation discussed in the UNHandbook of Housing Needs Estimation, this yearly construction which are addition to thepresent stock still follows the pattern of structure according to the type of constructionmaterials and type of building of the existing stocks, thus, only increments are added to theoriginal inventory. This information may provide the planners more leeway in determiningwhich of the sub-components be given priority.

20. To summarize the annual estimates of allowance for replacements of stock of acceptablehousing units and the annual increase of households, the annual estimates are merelyaggregated to reflect the extent of the magnitude of the future or recurrent needs on the totalhousing needs for the three-year period which have to be met in order not to incur housingbacklogs in the next planning period.

Estimates of Housing Needs as of January 1, 2007 to January 1, 2011

21. Another set of estimates of housing needs was prepared with January 1 for years 2007 to2010 as reference period. Hence, a corresponding set of population projections wasprepared using the same reference period.

Since the time reference of estimates shifted from July 1 to January 1, new set ofpopulation projections from 2001 to 2011 was prepared using the same exponential growthrate formula applied to the May 1, 2000 population census count and August 1, 2007population count. The basic formula for exponential growth rate is:

Pn = Po ert (Equation 1)

Translated to exponential rate r = [ln (Pn ) – ln (Po)] ÷ twhere: Pn = the population count as of August 1, 2007 (88,571,421)

Po = the population count as of May 1, 2000 (76,504,077)ln = the base of natural logarithm which is approximately 2.7183t = the no. of years between May 1 2000 and August 1, 2007

= 7 years and 92/365 days or 7.25205

Annual exponential rate computed: r = 0.0201964 or 2.019%

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22. The number of households in 2007 was estimated using the actual average household sizecomputed from the May 1, 2000 results reconfigured to 2007 regional classification. Prior tothis, projected population as of January 1, 2007 is prorated to regions using the percentagedistribution of the population count based on August 1, 2007 census. Same procedure wasdone for 2009-2011.

Estimates of Housing Units and Doubled-up Households by Construction Materials:

23. In estimating total housing needs, the estimates for components of selected housingindicators: homeless households, informal settlers, living in dilapidated/condemnedstructures and residing in marginal housing are computed first. This is by extrapolating thefigures generated in January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2007 and onwards. This is on assumptionthat the same distribution for the indicators will hold true until another census is undertaken.To estimate the number of housing units of selected housing indicators, the followingprocedure as already discussed above was used.

24. As a requirement in the determination of housing needs by region, number of households,housing units and doubled-up households by region of selected housing indicators wereestimated following the same procedure described previously. The specific detailed

procedure of determining housing needs by region is as follows:

a. Compute the percentage distribution of households of all selected housing indicators byregion from the actual data of May 1, 2000 configured in 2007 regional composition.With the estimated total households, the total number of households by region isdistributed in each cell using the percentage distribution or ratios. Note that this step willproduce slightly different distribution of households by region compared with the first.

b. Compute housing density of households as of May 1, 2000 (Step 1) to generate divisorsto extrapolate number of housing units in each cell of the housing indicators. Use thisdensity to estimate the housing units in each cell by region by dividing the density by thenumber of households in each cell.

c. After the housing units have been extrapolated, the number of doubled-up households

can be computed for each cell by merely getting the difference between the number ofhouseholds and the number of housing units.

The end result of the above procedure will produce tabulation of housing needs by selectedhousing indicators for 2007. Same procedure is done to generate those for years 2008,2009, 2010 and 2011.

Estimation of Housing Needs at National Level: 2007-2010

The following Table presents in detail the different components of Housing Needs. Thecontents of the table include estimates of housing needs showing the major components ofaccumulated needs and recurrent or future needs for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.

Based on the UN Component Method in estimating housing needs, the two majorcomponents are: Accumulated Needs and Recurrent or Future Needs. Each has sub-components.

Accumulated Needs were estimated initially after conduct of a Census of Housing wherethe inventory of Housing was taken. It has two categories with subcomponents:

1. Households residing in unacceptable structuresa) Those in living quarters not intended for human habitation (Homeless)b) Those in dilapidated/condemned housing unitsc) Households without security of tenure (Informal settlers)

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d) Those in marginal housing units2. Doubled-up households living in acceptable housing units

Recurrent or Future Needs are classified into two:

1. Replacement of acceptable housing Units due to inventory loss; and

2. Increase in the number of households.

Estimates of Housing Needs by Major Components: January 1, 2007 – December 31, 2010

(Unit in Household)

Incremental Needs as of December 31Total Housing

NeedsComponents of Housing Needs

Initial Needs(As of Jan 1,

2007)BACKLOG

2007(Jan 2-Dec 31)

CY2008 CY2009 CY2010CY 2007-2010

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Total Housing Needs 1,273,395 572,388 584,067 595,981 608,141 3,633,972

A. Accumulated Needs 1,273,395 25,981 26,507 27,051 27,603 1,380,537

1. HH in Unacceptable Housing 859,310 17,532 17,888 18,254 18,627 931,611

a. Homeless 11,937 244 248 254 259 12,942

b. Dilapidated/condemned 134,931 2,753 2,809 2,866 2,925 146,284c. Marginal Housing (including

informal settlers)712,442 14,535 14,831 15,134 15,443 772,385

2. Doubled-up HH in Acceptable HU 414,085 8,449 8,619 8,797 8,976 448,926

B. Future/Recurrent Needs 546,407 557,560 568,930 580,538 2,253,435

1. Allowance for Inventory losses 215,958 220,364 224,859 229,447 890,628 2. New HHs (likely to afford to

own/rent acceptable HU) 330,449 337,196 344,071 351,091 1,362,807

Following tables show regional breakdown.

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Initial Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2007)

Informal Informa

+Marginal l+Marginal

2007

PHILIPPIN 17,470,630 11,937 134,931 712,442 414,085 1,273,395 244 2,753 14,535 8,448 25,9

NCR 2,439,578 8,018 21,995 221,803 134,047 385,862 164 449 4,525 2,735 7,8

CAR 301,776 96 859 3,837 4,464 9,256 2 18 78 91 1

Ilocos Reg 951,073 185 4,076 13,982 26,329 44,573 4 83 285 537 9

Cagayan 634,192 189 4,321 11,646 11,131 27,286 4 88 238 227 5

Central Lu 1,906,690 610 10,023 58,612 34,686 103,930 12 204 1,196 708 2,1

Calabarzo 2,193,777 1,056 10,935 93,187 41,227 146,405 22 223 1,901 841 2,9

Mimaropa 526,050 111 3,098 16,772 5,565 25,547 2 63 342 114 5

Bicol Regi 1,022,310 272 12,983 36,382 11,524 61,161 6 265 742 235 1,2

Western Vi 1,385,985 125 14,113 47,710 21,171 83,118 3 288 973 432 1,6

Central Vis 1,296,731 360 10,338 44,542 17,568 72,808 7 211 909 358 1,4

Eastern Vi 817,852 140 8,650 24,292 8,204 41,285 3 176 496 167 8

Zamboang 611,081 94 5,401 14,022 8,339 27,856 2 110 286 170 5

Northern 788,425 218 6,009 26,305 17,688 50,220 4 123 537 361 1,0

Davao Reg 863,853 140 7,481 38,420 16,599 62,640 3 153 784 339 1,2

Soccsksar 737,914 127 5,812 25,604 12,078 43,621 3 119 522 246 8

Caraga 449,903 116 3,787 23,697 7,474 35,074 2 77 483 152 7

ARMM 543,442 82 5,050 11,630 35,991 52,753 2 103 237 734 1,0

Incremental Accumulated Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2007)

Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/Condemn

ed

Doubled-

UpHousehold

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Increme

al Accumlated

Needs

Total HHs Accumulated Needs

(as of January 1, 2007)

Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/Condemn

ed

Doubled-

UpHousehold

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Total

Accumu-lated

Needs


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Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010)

Informal Informa


2008

PHILIPPIN 17,827,060 249 2,809 14,832 8,620 26,509

NCR 2,489,349 167 458 4,617 2,791 8,033

CAR 307,933 2 18 80 93 193

I locos Reg 970,477 4 85 291 548 928

Cagayan V 647,130 4 90 242 232 568

Central Lu 1,945,590 13 209 1,220 722 2,164

Calabarzo 2,238,534 22 228 1,940 858 3,048

Mimaropa 536,783 2 65 349 116 532

Bicol Regio 1,043,166 6 270 757 240 1,273Western Vi 1,414,261 3 294 993 441 1,730

Central Vis 1,323,186 8 215 927 366 1,516

Eastern Vi 834,537 3 180 506 171 859

Zamboang 623,548 2 112 292 174 580

Northern M 804,510 5 125 548 368 1,045

Davao Reg 881,477 3 156 800 346 1,304

Soccsksar 752,968 3 121 533 251 908

Caraga 459,081 2 79 493 156 730

ARMM 554,529 2 105 242 749 1,098

Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/Condemn

ed

Doubled-

UpHousehold

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Total

Accumu-lated

Needs

Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/Condemn

ed

Doubled-

UpHousehold

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Increment

al Accumulated

Needs






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Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) continued

Informal Informa


2009

PHILIPPIN 18,190,763 254 2,866 15,134 8,796 27,050

NCR 2,540,136 170 467 4,712 2,848 8,197

CAR 314,215 2 18 82 95 197

Ilocos Reg 990,276 4 87 297 559 947

Cagayan V 660,333 4 92 247 236 580

Central Lu 1,985,283 13 213 1,245 737 2,208

Calabarzo 2,284,204 22 232 1,980 876 3,110

Mimaropa 547,734 2 66 356 118 543

Bicol Regio 1,064,449 6 276 773 245 1,299

Western Vi 1,443,114 3 300 1,013 450 1,766

Central Vis 1,350,182 8 220 946 373 1,547

Eastern Vi 851,563 3 184 516 174 877

Zamboang 636,270 2 115 298 177 592

Northern M 820,923 5 128 559 376 1,067

Davao Reg 899,461 3 159 816 353 1,331

Soccsksar 768,330 3 123 544 257 927

Caraga 468,447 2 80 503 159 745

ARMM 565,842 2 107 247 765 1,121

Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/

Condemn

ed

Doubled-

Up

Household

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Total

Accumu-lated

Needs

Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/

Condemn

ed

Doubled-

Up

Household

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Increment

al Accumu

lated

Needs






19/20

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) continued

Informal Informa


2010

PHILIPPIN 18,561,885 259 2,925 15,443 8,976 27,6

NCR 2,591,959 174 477 4,808 2,906 8,3

CAR 320,626 2 19 83 97 2

Ilocos Reg 1,010,479 4 88 303 571 9

Cagayan V 673,805 4 94 252 241 5

Central Lu 2,025,786 13 217 1,270 752 2,2

Calabarzo 2,330,806 23 237 2,020 894 3,1

Mimaropa 558,909 2 67 364 121 5

Bicol Regio 1,086,165 6 281 789 250 1,3Western Vi 1,472,556 3 306 1,034 459 1,8

Central Vis 1,377,728 8 224 965 381 1,5

Eastern Vi 868,937 3 187 527 178 8

Zamboang 649,251 2 117 304 181 6

Northern M 837,671 5 130 570 383 1,0

Davao Reg 917,811 3 162 833 360 1,3

Soccsksar 784,005 3 126 555 262 9

Caraga 478,004 3 82 514 162 7

ARMM 577,387 2 109 252 780 1,1



Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/Condemn

ed

Doubled-

UpHousehold

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Increme

al Accumlated

Needs



Home-

less

Dilapidate

d/Condemn

ed

Doubled-

UpHousehold

s in

Acceptabl

e Units

Total

Accumu-lated

Needs


20/20

References:

1. Final Technical Report of the research project “Development of Shelter Monitoring andInformation System”

2. Medium Term Philippine Development Plans. 1987-1992, 1993-1998, 1999-2004, 2005-2010, National Economic Development Authority

3. “Methods of Estimating Housing Needs”. Studies in Methods Series F. No. 12, UnitedNations, New York, 1967.

4. “Housing Needs in the Philippines 1970-2000 Projections.” Monograph No. 18, NationalCensus and Statistics Office (NCSO now NSO), 1979

5. “Guidelines for the Preparation of Local Shelter Plans.” Housing and UrbanDevelopment and Coordinating Council, United Nations Centre for Human Settlements,Government of Finland, June 1994

6. Census of Population and Housing 2000, National Statistics Office

7. Population Census 2007, National Statistics Office

Documents

Improved National Framework on Housing Needs and Housing Needs Estimation