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CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO
PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Impatti dei cambiamenticlimatici sugli ecosistemi
marini: dall'oceano globale almare Mediterraneo
Marcello Vichi
[email protected]: Operational Oceanography Group (GNOO)
INGV Bologna; EU projects SESAME, MERSEA,
BOSS4GMES; Italian project VECTOR
CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO
PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Outline
! The global ocean ecosystem and climate
! Global climate change scenarios and
downscaling to the Mediterranean
! Anticipated impacts on the ecosystems
! On-going projects
CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO
PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
The ocean carbon cycle
Biological pump Solubility pump
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PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
A sea of interactions…Encyclopedia of the Earth
<http://www.eoearth.org/article/Marine_microbial_loop>
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What controlsPrimary Production in the sea
! Light
! Nutrients
! Trophic interactions
All this factors are affected by the general
circulation of the ocean:
underlying assumption that coherent biological
properties are a direct (or modulated) response to
physicsBiogeography
CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO
PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Ocean biogeography
Satellite data (1997-2005)
Chlorophyll and vegetation index
http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov
Surface ocean currents
http://commons.wikimedia.org
Surface nitrate concentration
WOA01 (Conkright et al., 2002)
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Change and causality
! How do we define changes?
! Climate change: a modification of the mean orvariance of climate variables over a sufficiently longperiod (~30 years)
! Ecosystem change: a modification of salientfeatures (such as keystone species) which “may”lead to a change in the ecosystem structure and theability to provide goods and services
! It is more difficult than we thought! (Caddy andSeijo, 2005)
! Surprises are around the corner (Doek et al., 2008)
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Detecting changes inmarine ecosystems! Marine biogeography is the
classification of oceanic regions
either based on the presence of
key species (e.g. copepods) or on
the determination of coherent
physical properties which defines a
biome or a province (sensu
Longhurst, 2007)
! Changes in biogeographic
provinces can thus be related to
climate change
! CPR zooplankton data (Beugrand
et al., 2002; picture from
Richardson, 2008)
Zooplankton abundance
CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO
PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Sea-use change
Nutrients Organic pollutants
Inorganic pollutants Direct human impact
Shipping (pollution)
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The Mediterraneanperspective
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A multi-scale system
http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs
Mean Daily Surface Temperature analysis (degC) since 2008-01-01
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PER I CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Simulated at finer resolutions
http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/afs
Daily forecasts of the Adriatic sea
oceanographic parameters with a 2
km spatial resolution model
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An oligotrophic sea
SeaWiFS satellite ocean color data (1998-2003)Barale et al., 2005
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First attempts at environmentalpredictions
7 days forecast with the Biogeochemical Flux Model (http://bfm.cmcc.it) and
forced with MFS forecast data
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A 2oC warming scenario
! Ecosystem changes with new invasive ornon-native species such as gelatinouszooplankton and medusa, toxic algal blooms,increased fouling and decreased dissolvedoxygen events, will increase operation costs..
! In terms of biodiversity, climate change islikely to lead to shifts in the distributions andabundances of species, potentially increasingthe risks of extinction.
Giannakopoulos et al., WWF report 2005
Alcamo et al., Chapter 12 IPCC AR4 WG 2, 2007
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The uncertainty cascade
Adapted from IPCC 2001
Emission
scenarios
Carbon cycle
response
Global climate
sensitivity
Regional climate
change scenarios
Range of possible
impacts
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Djurdjevic et al., Belgrade University
(pers. comm.)
Downscaling of global climate models
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Surface Temperature mean differences 2071:2100 - 1971:2000
(INGV-SXG climate model: Gualdi et al., 2008; Scoccimarro et al., 2007)
A1B A2
DJF
JJA
Scenario projections (1)
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Scenario projections (2)
Projected changes in mixed layer depth (m)
[Somot et al., Climate Dynamics, 2006]
Control (current climate) Scenario (A2)
Simulated changes in mean SST from the
INGV-SXG model
[Gualdi et al., 2008; Scoccimarro et al., 2007]
compared with observed changes
[Reynolds et al., 2002]
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What about the impacts onSES ecosystems?
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Observed changes in the NA
Tedesco et al., Biogeosciences, 2007
Chl timeseries 1986-2005
The Cox-Stuart test for
long-term trends detected
significant trends only for
observed temperature
and salinity (connected
partly to large scale,
climatic signals) but NOT
for chlorophyll
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Changes in dominant modes
D’Ortenzio et al., 2003
2000
The Eastern Mediterranean Transient wasan event in the ‘90s that changed the deepwater circulation of the basin.It apparently had little effects on the upperproductive layers of the EM, though somemacroscopic features did change(Calabrian Bloom, Rhodes Gyre Bloom)
CZCS Chl SeaWiFS Chl
Heat flux (NCEP)
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A model ecosystem response
Vichi et al., Climate Research, 2003
Main assumptions:
(1) The CO2 pool in
the marine system is
an infinite source;
(2) The river
influence (runoff and
nutrient inputs) is as
in present days
Usage of a
comprehensive
biogeochemistry model
(early version of the
BFM
http://bfm.bo.ingv.it)
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Projections
Surface chlorophyll
Surface GPP Surface DOC
SST
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What do we need to improvethe impact studies?
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Improved regional climate scenarios
http://www.bo.ingv.it/circeip
to develop for the first time an integrated assessment of the climatechange impacts in the Mediterranean area• To predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in theMediterranean area• To evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and theeconomy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area.• To develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects ofclimate change.• To identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration withregional stakeholders.
Coordinators: A. Navarra (CMCC-INGV), L. Tubiana (IDDRI)
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http://www. sesame-ip.eu
Coordinator: E. Papathanassiou,HCMR, Greece
1. To assess the changes or regime shifts in the ecosystems of theSouthern European Seas (Mediterranean and the Black Sea - SES)over the last 50 years and
assess the potential mechanisms that relate these changes to changesin natural and anthropogenic forcings.
2. To assess the current status of the SES ecosystems through analysis of
existing and newly collected data as well as through model simulations.
3. To predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses to likely changes
in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades.
4. To assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems toprovide goods and services (with potentially high societal importance).
• Goods: tourism and fisheries• Services: ecosystem stability through conservation of
biodiversity, and mitigation of climate change through carbon
sequestration in waters and sediments
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SESAME applications
The five study areas over which the semi-
quantitative fields of economics and social sciences
will be fully addressed.
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The Italian project VECTOR
Coordinator: C. CorselliCONISMA, Italy
Assess the vulnerability of Italian coastlines andMediterranean marine ecosystems to climate changesin the context of a changing Earth System.
" case studies" long-term Eulerian monitoring" seasonal transects" trans-Mediterranean cruise" regional and global models
http://vector-conisma.geo.unimib.it
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Take-home message
! The definition of “regional climate” of climate scientists isdifferent from the one of field experimentalists (!). Climatechange projection impacts have to be carefully interpreted atthe proper scales
! Global warming scenarios are likely to impact vulnerableecosystems. Changes in biodiversity and ecosystem structuremay not be simple to detect (and foreseen!)
! Coastal areas will require longer timeseries to capturepossible changes due to the higher intrinsic variability
! Models (conceptual and numerical) are keys to assess theimpacts of climate change on marine ecosystems
! More adequate climate products for impact assessments willbe available soon