Impacts of climate change on I di A i ltIndian Agriculture

CRIDAMandate

• To undertake basic and appliedCRIDA research in the rainfed areas.

• To act as a repository ofinformation on rainfed agricultureinformation on rainfed agriculturein the country.

• To provide leadership and co-ordinate network research withSAUs for generating location-specific technologies.

• To act as a center for training inresearch methodologies in thefields basic to management ofgrainfed-farming systems.

• To collaborate with relevantnational and international agenciesnational and international agenciesin achieving the above objectives.

• To provide consultancy.

AICRPAM and AICRPDACenters location map

T di t dTwo coordinated Projects

• Agrometeorology• Agrometeorology

• Dryland Agriculture

Climate variability and change

•Large country with diverse climate Climate Change and Indian Agriculture 

g y

•Two thirds area rain dependent

•High monsoon dependency

•Diverse seasons, crops and farming , p g

systems

Cl li k b t li t d•Close link between climate and

water resources

•Small holdings, poor coping mechanisms and low penetration ofmechanisms and low penetration of risk management products

Weather Impacts on Agriculture

Rainfall drives water availability and determines Sowing time(rainfed crops)Temperature drives crop growth, duration; influences milkproduction in animals and spawning in fishTemperat re RH infl ence pest and diseases incidence on cropsTemperature, RH influence pest and diseases incidence on crops,livestock and poultryRadiation influences the photosynthetic productivityp y p yWet & dry spells cause significant impact on standing crops,physiology, loss of economic products (eg. fruit drop)Extreme events (eg. high rainfall/floods/heat wave/coldwave/cyclone /hail/frost) cause enormous losses of standing crops,live stock and fisheries

Impacts observed through modeling/ experimentation p

• Kharif crops to be impacted more by rainfall variability while rabi crops byminimum temperature

• Wheat is likely to be negatively impacted in rabi due to terminal heat stress

• Rice in the IGP to be impacted both by temperature and water availability

• Legume crops like soybean and groundnut are likely to be benefited due toincreased temperature/CO2 if water availability is not limited

• Milk yield in livestock to be impacted during heat waves

• Changes in breeding season in marine fisheries with shift in seasonal catch

• Significant negative impact on commercial poultry due to heat stress

• More opportunities for rain water harvesting due to high intensity rainfall but pp g g ygreater loss of top soil due to erosion

Impacts Overall p• Negative impact on rice, wheat and horticulture• Neutral or positive on some crops like soybean, p p y ,

groundnut, coconut, potato in some zones • Impact on livestock and fisheries still to be better

understoodunderstood• Short term impacts in 10-15 years (in the range of 4-

6%) but long term impacts could be as high as 25% ( ith b i l i )(with business as usual scenario)

• Short term impacts can be addressed through better deployment of existing technologies backed p y g gby few policy initiatives while long term impacts require strategic research on a long term and a major policy changesmajor policy changes

Impacts on wheat and rice ‐2030 scenario

Wheat Rice

‐3‐2‐10

Haryana  Punjab  Uttar Pradesh  Bihar 

ld (%

)

Wheat  Rice 

‐9‐8‐7‐6‐5‐4

Chan

ge in

 yiel

State

Reduce the irrigated wheat production by 6%production by 6%Adaptation strategies can not only offset the production losses but can increase the yieldscan increase the yields

Groundnut, soybean and coconut likely to benefit

2473

2655 26352584

2600

2700

2345

2200

2300

2400

2500

ated

ave

rage

rai

nfed

ndnu

t yie

ld (K

g/ha

)

2000

2100

2200

Sim

ula

grou

n

Average simulated rainfed groundnut yields undercurrent and future scenarios in major crop growingcurrent and future scenarios in major crop growingregions of India

Impact of climate change on potato production

0

10

NW Plains NE Plains Plateau regionsrent levels

Impact of climate change on potato production in different regions of India

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10 NW Plains NE Plains Plateau regions

nge  (%

) from curr

2020

2050

l b l l h d f b d

‐50Chan

Potato growing regions

• Global climate change may raise production of potato in Punjab, Haryana andwestern and central UP by 3.46 to 7.11% in A1b 2030 scenario, but in rest of Indiaparticularly West Bengal and plateau region potato production may decline by 4 to16%.%

• Such climatic changes are likely to result in increased soybean yields by 8‐13%.Effect of climate change on groundnut is likely to be variable with yields varyingbetween ‐5 and +7% as compared to current yields.

Projected impact of climate change on coconut yieldj p g y

PRECIS A1B 2030   PRECIS A1B 2080

• Shift in apple cultivation to higher elevations due to nonpp gfulfillment of chilling requirement

• Increase in temperature did not show any significantimpact on productivity of other temperate fruits like Peach,Plum and Pear

• Unseasonal rainfall in March 2008 – cashew was affected• The tea crop in mid hill regions also showed a decrease in

yield with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall

17 946 1164 3800

1000

1200

1400

hill

units

45678

d (T

ons)

y = -17.946x + 1164.3

200

400

600

800

Cum

ulat

ive

ch

0123

1980

-8119

82-83

1984

-8519

86-87

1988

-8919

90-91

1992

-9319

94-95

1996

-9719

98-99

2000

-2001

Years

Yiel

d

01990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Years

Years

Climate variation has profound influence on mango phenology

Photograph showing flowering during the month of February 2010 on already bearing tree in Bangalore

C tl il bl t h lCurrently available technology can cope with short term impacts eg. Wheat 

12

6

8

10

s of 200

0‐07

Scenario 2020 

0

2

4

mean yields

‐6

‐4

‐2 Impact Current variety and improved management

Improved variety and current management

Improved variety and altered management

Improved variety and improved 

management and NRM

Change

 from

 

‐8

‐6C

Adaptation strategy

Crop Water Requirement (mm)

Area (ha) of the Total Water Requirement(Mi cu meters)

Maize

Station DOS (mm) crop in State(2005-06)

(Mi. cu meters)

1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050

Udaipur(Rajasthan) 25-Jun 407 7 411 4 420 3 1003000 4089 2 4126 3 4215 6(Rajasthan) 25-Jun 407.7 411.4 420.3 1003000 4089.2 4126.3 4215.6

Jhabua(MP) 20-Jun 446.7 452.8 464.6 861600 3848.8 3901.3 4003.0

Karimnagar( )(AP) 15-Jun 444.1 453.3 459.7 593000 2633.5 2688.1 2726.0

% Deviation in Crop Water Requirement from 1990

3.0

3.54.0

4.5 C

WR

2020 2050

1 0

1.52.0

2.53.0

% D

evia

tion

in

0.0

0.51.0

Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh

Groundnut

Crop Water Requirement Area (ha) of Total Water Requirement

Station DOS

(mm) the crop in State

(2005-06)

(Mi. cu meters)

1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050

Rajkot(G )(Gujarat) 15-Jun 573.8 576.1 596.2 1852000 10626.8 10669.4 11041.6

Anantapur(AP) 15-Jun 572.3 582.8 659.1 1615000 9242.6 9412.2 10644.5

Belgaumg(Karnataka) 15-Jun 357.7 369.2 388.3 868000 3104.8 3204.7 3370.4

% Deviation in Crop Water Requirement from 1990

10 0

12.0

14.0

16.0

n CW

R

2020 2050

2 0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0%

Dev

iatio

n in

0.0

2.0

Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Karnataka

Climate during the recent pastYear SWM Rainfall

Extreme Events Extreme Events 2002 d ht2002 d htYear SWM Rainfall

Departure (%)

2000 -8

•• 2002 drought2002 drought•• 20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra 20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra

PradeshPradeshE t ld i t i th 2002E t ld i t i th 2002 03032001 -15

2002 -192003 +2

•• Extreme cold winter in the year 2002Extreme cold winter in the year 2002--0303•• Drought like situation in India in July 2004Drought like situation in India in July 2004•• Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 Abnormal temperatures during March 2004

and Jan 2005and Jan 20052003 +22004 -132005 -1

and Jan 2005and Jan 2005•• Floods in 2005 Floods in 2005 •• Cold wave 2005 Cold wave 2005 -- 0606

Fl d i id R j th & AP d d ht iFl d i id R j th & AP d d ht i2006 -12007 +52008 2

•• Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006NE regions in 2006

•• Abnormal temperatures during 3Abnormal temperatures during 3rdrd week of Jan week of Jan to 1to 1stst week of Feb 2007week of Feb 20072008 -2

2009 -232010 +2

to 1to 1stst week of Feb 2007week of Feb 2007•• All India Severe drought 2009All India Severe drought 2009•• 2010 2010 –– One of warmest yearsOne of warmest years

20112011 F il f S t b i i APF il f S t b i i AP2010 +22011 +12012 -8

•• 2011 2011 –– Failure of September rains in AP Failure of September rains in AP •• 2012 2012 –– Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat

and Karnataka. Neelam cyclone, AP floodsand Karnataka. Neelam cyclone, AP floods

Impact of extreme weather events: cold wave in North - 2006

Papaya wheat Jatropha Frost observation

Mustard Ice flakes Ice formation on leaves mustard

Extreme event : Heat Wave  in AP in 2003

Custard Apple is tolerant to High temperaturesAndhra Pradesh20 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003 Total Loss by 27 Crores

Live stock :

Continuous higher temperatures during critical  growth stages  of rabi crops reduces the crop yields considerably 

Heat wave can reduce a milk yield by 10‐30% in first lactation and  5‐20% in second and third  lactation periods in cattle  and buffaloes it also effect the growth , puberty and maturity of crossbreed of cows and buffaloes

Fish : Mortality of fish lings in shallow water ponds .  Reduction in fish catch in the water bodies due to movement of fish into the deeper layers  NPCC‐2004‐07

Can we reduce weather induced crop losses?Yes…

Accurate and timelyAccurate and timely Weather support (Forecast) If ….

Timely Agromet advisory

Faster communication to farmerFaster communication to farmer

To some extent Significantly22

http://cropweatheroutlook.inp // p

Subdivision wise daily

rainfall chart

Weather forecasting and Contingency Planning

• Parliamentary committee on agriculture recommendedpreparation of district level Contingency plans for variousit tisituations

• ICAR is preparing district level contingency plans for theentire country covering crops livestock and fisheriesentire country covering crops, livestock and fisheries

• The contingencies covered are droughts, floods, heat andcold waves frost unseasonal rains cyclones etccold waves, frost, unseasonal rains, cyclones etc.

• Effective operationalisation of these contingency plansrequires reliable district level forecasts of all typesrequires reliable district level forecasts of all types

• Dedicated district level contingency plan implementationcells will be set up in XII plan under NMSA under the overallcells will be set up in XII plan under NMSA under the overallsupervision of DoAC

http://www.crida.in

Districts with more than 50% deficitrainfall up to 15th August 2012 (95 districts)

Districts with more than 50% deficitrainfall upto 22ndAugust 2012 (87 districts)

Automatic Weather Stations Networkwww.aicrpam‐nicra‐aws.in

CRIDA

www.aicrpam nicra aws.inKVK location map

Agro climatic Zone States

Number of AWS 

locations

I J & K, HP, Punjab  and Haryana 11, , j y

II A & N Islands, Bihar, Jharkhand and W,Bengal 14

IIIArunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura and Sikkim

16and Sikkim

IV UP and Uttarakhand 13V AP & Maharashtra 16VI Gujarath & Rajasthan 9

VII Chhathisgarh, MP and Orrissa 13

VIII Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu 8

100

AWS installed at Hayatnagar Research Farm (HRF), CRIDAPilot testing of customized agro

advisories at block/thaluk level through SAU-KVK interface based gon real time feed back- 25 AICRPAM centres and KVKs

• IMD issues forecast and agromet advisories at districtIMD issues forecast and agromet advisories at districtlevel

With d t i t h l bl k t• With advancements in technology, blanketrecommendations of agromet advisories at districtlevel become grossly inadequatelevel become grossly inadequate.

• In order to achieve block and village level advisories,AICRPAM‐NICRA has evolved a pilot methodology incollaboration with KVK, Belgaum.

Development and dissemination of Agromet AdvisoriesDevelopment and dissemination of Agromet Advisories

Belgaum District: ( 10 talukas)Belgaum District: ( 10 talukas)

Subhumid Talukas (5) Semiarid Taluks (5)

Bulletin preparation for 10 talukas on single day is impossible

Subhumid Talukas (5) Semiarid Taluks (5)

Data inputs from FIF: ThursdayData inputs from FIF: Monday

Advisory development and dissemination: Tuesday

Advisory development and dissemination: Friday

Email of Advisory Bulletin sent From the ID of KVK and in the name of PC KVKy

Asst. Director of Agriculture (Taluka)Field Information Faciliators NGO

Visit to KSDA office to pursue dissemination

Print out given to individual selected farmers Print out of bulletin to Agriculture Officers at RSK (Hobli)

p

Visit to farmers field, and informal awareness creation to implement weather based farming operations

National Initiative on Climate

Resilient Agriculture

• Strategic ResearchProject Components

Strategic Research

• TechnologyDemonstration

S d/C titi• Sponsored/Competitive Research

• Capacity Building

Project Strategy• Strategic research to address long

Project StrategyStrategic research to address long term climate change

• Technology demonstration to helpTechnology demonstration to help farmers cope with current climate variabilityvariability

• Capacity building of different stakeholders for greater awarenessstakeholders for greater awareness and community action

N 100 Districts selected for Technology Demonstration

Cold waveCold wave & DroughtCold wave & DroughtCold wave, Drought &FrostCycloneCyclone &FloodDroughtDrought & Cold waveDrought & FloodDrought & FloodDrought & Heat waveDrought & SalinityFloodFlood & CycloneFlood & SalinityFrostFrostFrost & Cold waveHeat wave & Cold waveHeavy rainfallHigh temperatureSalinity & Water loggingScanty rainfall &SalinityScanty rainfall &SalinityWater stressWater stress, Soil erosion &Soil acidity

Map not to scale

Process• Identification of vulnerable districts• Choosing representative village cluster• Characterization of climatic stresses• Need assessment and baseline• Formation of VCRMC• Finalization of interventions through a participatory process

• Implementation and monitoringThe unique feature is the flexibility ininterventions depending on the real timeweather

Modules

Interventions related to soil health, in-situ moisture conservation,

Module I : Natural resources

water harvesting and recycling for supplemental irrigation, improveddrainage in flood prone areas, conservation tillage where appropriate,artificial ground water recharge and water saving irrigation methods.artificial ground water recharge and water saving irrigation methods.

Module II : Crop Production

Drought/temperature tolerant varieties, advancement of planting datesof rabi crops in areas with terminal heat stress, water saving paddycultivation methods (SRI aerobic direct seeding) frost managementcultivation methods (SRI, aerobic, direct seeding), frost managementin horticulture through fumigation, community nurseries for delayedmonsoon, custom hiring centres for timely planting, location specifici t i tintercropping systems

Modules contd……..

Module III : Livestock and Fisheries

Use of community lands for fodder production during droughts/floods,improved fodder/feed storage methods, preventive vaccination, improved

Module III : Livestock and Fisheries

shelters for reducing heat stress in livestock , management of fishponds/tanks during water scarcity and excess water, etc.

Module IV : Institutional Interventions

Institutional interventions either by strengthening the existing ones orinitiating new ones relating to seed bank, fodder bank, commodity groups,custom hiring centre, collective marketing group, introduction of weatherg , g g p,index based insurance and climate literacy through a village weather stationwill be part of this module.

Documentations of indigenous coping mechanisms in all the 100 districts is part of this component (which will be made as a compendium)

K i t ti d tKey interventions and outcomesA snap shot across the countryp y

Launch at the Village sites

In each launch  all the stakeholders in the district were brought together.

and the programme objectives are explained..and the programme objectives are explained

Coping with monsoon delay: Direct Seeded Rice

District: Saran, Bihar

p g yYield (q/ha) %

increase

Economics of demonstration (Rs./ha) Economics of Local (Rs./ha)GrossCost

GrossReturn

NetReturn

BCR GrossCost

GrossReturn

NetReturn

BCRDemo Local

Impact of the intervention

e Cost Return Return Cost Return Return35 30 16.67 24238 47000 23510 2.00 30527 41000 11363 1.34

1. Saving in  25 liters of HSD in transplanting

2. Saving in 5 hours in tractor operation

3 Saving in 35 Man days in uprooting and3. Saving in 35 Man days in uprooting and transplanting of seedlings

4 Pump set hours reduced by 3 /ha4.  Pump set hours reduced by 3 /ha 

District: Saran, Bihar

Community Nursery for staggered seedling production  

Staggered comunity Nursery

Gumla JharkhandObjective : 

Coping strategy  towards 

Gumla, Jharkhand

erratic rain fall

Staggered date of sowing

25/ 6/12

01/7/12

08/7/12

15/7/12

22/7/12

Advancing Planting date to escape from terminal heat / drought – Satna MP

Crop Normal Intervention 38.83

% increase in yield

terminal heat / drought Satna, MP

Crop Normal InterventionMustard Last week of Oct

to Ist week of Nov1-15 Oct.

Wheat 05 20 Dec 15 30 Nov 20

30

4023.24

38 83

26.79

Wheat 05-20 Dec. 15-30 Nov.Chick pea

Last week of Oct to Ist week of Nov

10-25 Oct.0

10

20

Mustard Wheat Chick peap

Nov,4,2011 Oct,13,2011Nov,19,2011Dec,17,2011

Community seedbank: Dubri, Assam

Intervention PurposeMaintenance of -Quality seed of submergence tolerant and Maintenance of seed bank

Quality seed of submergence tolerant and short duration late transplanted rice varieties for flood affected area

-Quality seed of summer rice and toria for rabi

Minimizing loss of fish during floods: - Dubri, Assam

Key interventions PurposePlacement of nylon net

along the Prevent escape of cultured fish

and entry of predatory fish.periphery of pond dykes. Renovation of dykes of

ponds and establishment Prevent water contamination and change in water quality

of horticultural plantsPrevent escape of cultured fish and entry of predatory fi hfish.

Integrated Farming System: Kendrapara, Orissa2. Farm Pond

C t Fi h + H ti lt + D kComponent- Fishery+ Horticulture+ DuckeryArea-2 .5

No of pond renovated- 3 nosNo of Farmer Benefited 25 noNo of Farmer Benefited-25 no

To increase water productivity, water use efficiency and better Land Husbandry Practices

It will store run-off water.Recharging of ground water.Increase the availability of

Fishery- Catla, rahu and mirgalDuckery‐Khaki cambel, White runnerHorti‐ Coconut, Mango & Banana

Increase the availability ofmoisture.

Provide life saving irrigationduring drought.

Generate employment.

Village Climate Risk Management Committee (VCRMC)VCRMC- Key institutional Intervention

Name of the VCRMC

Village name

No. of members

Bank details

Name of Bank A/C no. Amount (Rs.)

VCRMC,  Sanora Panjab National BankSanora,Barodi

Sanora, Barodi 12 Panjab National Bank,

Branch‐Datia (M.P.) 0638000101265901 3210.00

Name of VCRMC – Sh. Ratan Singh Yadav (President), Sh. Umashankar Sharma(S t ) Sh Chh t l P t i (T ) Sh K ll Sh Sh R j h Sh(Secretary), Sh. Chhatrapal Pateria (Treasure), Sh. Kallu Sharma, Sh. Rajesh Sharma,Sh. Sobran Parihar, Sh. Moolchandra Namdev, Sh. Raju Sharma, Sh. Munna Lal Yadav,Sh. Sugreev Yadav, Sh. Devi Singh, Sh. Lakhan Singh Yadav (Members).

Site Office and Scientist team of NICRA Account PassbookMeeting of VCRMCKRISHI VIGYAN KENDRA, DATIA (M.P.)

Farmers awareness programs on Climate Change

Faizabad

bhParbhani

Dapoli

An insurance product based on a weather index.

WEATHER INSURENCE

The basic idea of weather insurance is to estimate the percentagedeviation in crop output due to adverse weather conditions. Unlikeregular insurance, which would only cover physical damage, weatherg y p y ginsurance protects against additional expenses or loss of profit fromspecific bad weather events.

A l i f I di C I P b t 1985 d 2003An analysis of Indian Crop Insurance Program between 1985 and 2003reveals that rainfall accounted for nearly 95 percent claims – 85 percentbecause of deficit rainfall and 10 percent because of excess rainfall.

Financial protection based on the performance of specified index inrelation to a specified trigger.

Detailed correlation analysis is carried out to ascertain the way weather impacts yields of the crops to arrive at compensation levels.

Weather indices could be deficit/excess rainfall extreme fluctuations ofWeather indices could be deficit/excess rainfall,extreme fluctuations oftemperature, relative humidity and/or a combination of above.

Crop Calendar and Rainfall Pattern

11-24Jun 25Jun-15Jul 16Jul-26Aug 27Aug-7Oct 8Oct-11Nov

Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity

Stag

es

me

2 weeks 3 weeks 6 weeks 6 weeks

40-60mm 50-70mm 170-190mm 180-200mm 40mmter

emen

tTi

m

5.5 weeks

Wat

requ

ire

190mm180mm

90

50mm60mm 40mm

OutputRainfall required

Source: Vivek Pawale, Galileo Weather Risk Management Ltd

Deviation in rainfall and impact on yieldag

es

Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity

StTi

me 11-24Jun 25Jun-15Jul 16Jul-26Aug 27Aug-7Oct 8Oct-11Nov

Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity

2 weeks 3 weeks 6 weeks 6 weeks 5.5 weeks

Loss in yield40-60mm 50-70mm 170-190mm 180-200mm 40mm

Wat

er

requ

irem

ent

190mm180mm

50mm60mm 40mm

90mm70mm

OutputRainfall required Actual Rainfall recordedSource: Vivek Pawale, Galileo Weather Risk Management Ltd

Loss payment through weather insuranceag

es

Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity

StTi

me 11-24Jun 25Jun-15Jul 16Jul-26Aug 27Aug-7Oct 8Oct-11Nov

Presowing Seedling Vegetative Reproductive Maturity

2 weeks 3 weeks 6 weeks 6 weeks 5.5 weeks

Payout:(Strike – actual rainfall)

* Notional, e g INR 20 / mm

40-60mm 50-70mm 170-190mm 180-200mm 40mm

Wat

er

requ

irem

ent

Retentione.g. INR 20 / mm

180mm

70mm

190mm

70mmStrikeStrike

50mm60mm 40mm70mm

90mm

Rainfall required Actual Rainfall recorded OutputLoss paymentSource: Vivek Pawale, Galileo Weather Risk Management Ltd

Location specific crop weather calendars would be very helpful in preparation of Agromet advisory Bulletins.

Annual rainfall trends

Station Data Gridded Data IMD (1O X 1O)

Number of stations 867

Data period : 1901 - 2004

Data period : 1957 – 2007

J&K state is showing increasing trend with station data where as gridded data showsdecreasing trend.

AICRPAM,CRIDA

MP, Gujarat and some part of Maharashtra states is showing either increasing or decreasingtrend with station data where as gridded data is shows no significant trend

Annual rainfall trend using IMD grid data (24 grid points)

Annual rainfall trend using mandal level data (1128 mandals)

Data Period 1971 ‐ 2007

Non SignificantNon Significant 

Increasing 

Decreasing

NA

Non Significant 

Increasing 

AICRPAM, CRIDA AICRPAM, CRIDA

Reserve Forest

Increasing trend in annual rainfall at Anantapur and Khammam districts with mandal level data but no trend with grid data

Decreasing trend is showing in Adialabd with mandal level data but grided data is not showing any trend

Medak district showing decreasing trend with mandal level data where as grid point is not available for Medak district