Impact Assessment Study on

Digital Payment Adoption

From Concepts to Practice

PRICE Team April 19th, 2017

About P.R.I.C.E…

• Established in 2012 as an independent, not-for-profit, “fact tank’ and “think tank’

• A section 8 Company, registered U/S 12A and 80G of the income tax act, GOI

• Engaged in building and disseminating seminal knowledge (interconnected, consistent and up-to-date) about India’s Macro Consumer Economy and Citizen’s Environment …. to enable evidence led policy formulation, regulatory response and business decisions.

• Focused on “How Indians earns, spends, saves, lives, thinks, accesses public goods and amenities

• National network of primary data collection capabilities

• Have completed two Pan India Survey (2014 & 2016)

Objectives of the Survey

• To develop the digital profile of merchants and consumers of JAIPUR city.

• To understand their payment methods and analyse their financial portfolio in the light of digital transactions .

• To identify their pain points that could be addressed through digital payment solutions.

• To determine patterns in merchant and consumers behaviors and perceptions that could be consumed to introduce more digital payment solutions.

National & International Reviews: (Digital payments; Survey of Merchant and Consumers)

Reviews – Survey Research

• Beyond Cash, Why India Loves Cash And Why That Matters”, Global

innovation exchange (USAID), 2016.

• “The Cashless Society”: Consumer Perceptions of Payment Methods”,

Aarhus University, 2016.

• “Digital Payments 2020 (The making of a $500 billion ecosystem in India”,

Google and BCG, 2016.

• Haiti Mobile Money Business and Merchant Survey Results, DAGMAR and

Imagines LLC., USAID & Bill & Melinda Gates, 2015.

• The 2008 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice, RAND cooperation, Federal

Reserve Bank of Boston, 2010.

Reviews - Research Papers

• Kiyotaki, N., & Wright, R. (1989). On money as a medium of exchange. The Journal of Political Economy, 927–954.

• Worthington, S. (1995). The cashless society. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 23(7), 31–40.

• Claessens, S. (2006). Access to financial services: A review of the issues and public policy objectives. The World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 207–240.

• Dastan, I., & others. (2016). Factors Affecting the Adoption of Mobile Payment Systems: An Empirical Analysis. Emerging Markets Journal, 6(1), 17.

“Beyond Cash” (US Global Development Lab, USAID,2016)

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Objective To understand the behaviors and perception towards digital payments

Focus Consumers and Merchants

Appro

ach &

Meth

odolo

gy

Quantitative

survey

Sample size: 2,400 consumers and merchants

Coverage: Kota, Jaunpur, Guntur, Vishakh., Mumbai, Hyderabad

Interview method: Face-to-face interview

Ethnographic

research 64 consumers and merchants in Guntur, Mumbai and Kota.

Remarks Covered users and non-users of digital payment systems.

“Haiti Merchant Mobile Money” (USAID and Bill & Melinda Gates, 2015)

8

Objective

To understand access to financial services; business

management practices; behaviors, attitudes, and perceptions of

mobile money; barriers to usage and operational “pain points”.

Appro

ach &

Meth

odolo

gy

Quantitative

Survey

Sample size: 526 (formal and informal merchants)

Coverage :Haiti’s 10 departments (Rural-Urban)

Interview method: Face-to-face interview

Remarks

Designed to capture information that financial institutions

would need to design demand-driven mobile banking products

and strategies for merchants.

“The 2008 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice” (Federal Bank of Boston, 2010)

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Objectives

• To create aggregate time‐series and longitudinal panel data that can

be used to characterize and analyze trends in payment markets

pertaining to U.S. consumers.

• To study consumer payment behavior and evaluate public policies

pertaining to the U.S. payment system.

Approach &

Methodology

Sample size: 1,010 consumers

Coverage : United States of America

Interview method: Online

Remarks

• Nationally representative survey of consumer payment behavior.

• The fourth in a series since 2003.

• Respondents are paid an incentive of about $20 per 30 minutes of

interviewing.

Impact Evaluation

To Evaluate or to Assess?

• Technically speaking….

• Assessment

• Long-term outcomes, aggregated judgment

• Evaluation

• Short-term outcomes, “unique event” judgment

Why Evaluate?

• How will you know your project is progressing adequately to achieve objectives?

• How will funders know your project was successful?

Why Evaluate?

Improve the program – ◦ “Balancing the call to prove with the need to improve.”

Determine program effectiveness –

◦ Evaluation supports “accountability and quality control”

◦ Significant influence on program’s future

Generate new knowledge –

◦ Not just research knowledge

◦ Determines not just that a program works, but analyzes how and why it works

With whom is the program most successful?

Under what circumstances?

Types of Evaluation

Process evaluation:

What processes are used and how well do they work?

Outcome evaluation:

Did the project achieve its stated objectives?

Process Evaluation

• What was provided and to whom?

services (modality, type, intensity, duration)

recipients (individual demographics and characteristics)

gender, age, income level)

context (institution, community, classroom)

• Do processes match the proposed project plan?

◦ What types of deviation from the plan occurred?

◦ What led to the deviations?

◦ What effect did the deviations have on the project and evaluation?

Outcome Evaluation

• What effect did the program have on participants?

• Activities / Objectives

• Achievement / Attitudes and beliefs

• What program/contextual factors were associated with outcomes?

• What individual factors were associated with outcomes?

• How durable were the effects?

• What correlations can be drawn between outcomes and program?

Evaluation Indicators

Impact Indicators

(Ultimate goal)

Outcome Indicators

(Behavioral change)

Output Indicators

(Goods and Services)

Input Indicators

(Material, financial, human)

Medium to Long Run (maybe 5 years

by the time surveys are carried out)

Medium Term - Ideally annually –

maybe every 2 – 3 years

Short – Medium Term - Ideally more

than once a year or annually

Short Term - Ideally every three

months or annually

Medium to Long Run (maybe 5 years

by the time surveys are carried out)

Medium Term - Ideally annually –

maybe every 2 – 3 years

Short – Medium Term - Ideally more

than once a year or annually

Short Term - Ideally every three

months or annually

Categories & concepts

Fixed Stores (Retail services with establishment of permanent structure)

Sl.

No. Sub-segments Examples

1.

Convenience stores

(For everyday

consumers )

Kirana store, grocery store, departmental store, dairy booths,

meat shop, fancy store etc.

2. Whole sellers (Deals in whole sales)

3.

Specialty stores

(One type, not for

everyday need)

Musical instrument store, stationery, hardware, pharmacy,

Apparel, Shoes, Gems & jewelry, Liquor, Photo studio, Furniture

store, Ayurveda related, Flower shops, Crockery shops, etc.

4.

Service providers

(Specializes in products

& services)

Salon, Tailors, Mechanic store, Agents (travel agent), Coaching

center, restaurants, food eatery/shop, Repair shops, etc.

Street vendors/Petty traders (Retail services without establishment of permanent structure)

Roaming Temporary

Description

Does not operate at one

location and does not have

a temporary set up

Operate out of temporary set

up and usually return to the

same location on regular

basis/operates out of

cart/vehicle

Examples

Hawkers, vegetable/fruit vendor with a cart, food vendors,

pan shop, teawala etc.

Individual service providers/ Self employed professionals

Person specializes in products and services

Fixed remuneration Per activity remuneration

Description Fixed periodic payments Per activity based payments

Examples Domestic help, gardener, driver, sweeper, electrician,

plumber, cobbler etc.

Survey Approach and Methodology

Frequently asked question?

• How to select the ‘part’ from the ‘whole’?

• How many respondents to be interviewed to obtain

a 95% confidence interval?

• How to implement the sampling scheme?

• How to generalise from the selected part to the

whole?

Sampling Error and Sample Size

n

)p1(pe

Sampling vs. Non-sampling Errors

26

What is the one phenomenon that causes

ALL sampling error?

HETEROGENEITY

Choice of Sample Design

Précision

Cost

28

Practical Sampling Design Framework

Henry (1990)

• Pre-sampling choices

• Sampling choices

• Post-sampling choices

Pre Sampling Choices

• What is the nature of the study: exploratory, baseline,

descriptive, or analytical?

• What are the variables of greatest interest?

• What is the target population for the study?

• Are subpopulations or special groups important for the study?

• How will the data be collected?

• Is sampling appropriate?

Sampling choices

• What listing of the target population can be used for the

sampling frame?

• What is the tolerable error or estimated effective sample

size?

• What type of sampling technique will be used?

• Will the probability of selection be equal or unequal?

• How many units will be selected for the sample?

Post sampling choices

• Is weighting necessary?

• What are the standard errors and related confidence

intervals for the study estimates?

• How can non-response be evaluated?

PRICE-Catalyst Study

Sampling Choices

• Nature of the study: Baseline study and Impact study

• Variables of greatest interest:

• Digital profile of merchants and consumers

• Payment methods and financial portfolio

• Addressable “Pain Points” through digital payment solutions.

• Patterns in merchant and consumers behaviors

• Perceptions about digital payment solutions

• Target population : Merchants and consumers

Sampling Choices …

• Subpopulations or special groups

• Data collection method: Questionnaire based approach

• Reference period: Financial year 2017

• Two rounds

Base line : April-June 2017 Impact study : April-June 2018 • Sample design : Same during both rounds

Sample Design

• Two-stage stratified random sampling

• First stage: USF block

• Second stage: Merchants and Consumers

• Listing of 200 merchants/consumers in each sample block

Summary Features

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Features

Description

Coverage Jaipur City

Unit of data collection Merchants and Consumers

Sample design Two-stage stratified random sampling

Reference period Financial year (2016-17)

Method of data collection Questionnaire based approach

Face-to-face interview

Respondents Principle Owner of the Business; Head (Chief Earner)

of household

Sample size and its allocation

Jaipur (Listing-18,000, Main- 3000)

Fixed stores

(6000, 1000)

Households

(12000, 2000)

Street vendors

(1800, 300)

Roaming

(900, 150)

Temporary (900, 150)

Home based business

(3000, 500)

Individual service providers

(2400, 400)

Fixed remuneration

(1200, 200)

Remuneration per activity

(1200, 200)

Pure consumers (4800, 800)

Sample distribution: Jaipur City (Urban wards and location)

38

Census Ward Location

7 Vidhyadhar Nagar

17 Sindhi Camp

18 Civil Line

35 Jhalana Doongri

38 Malviya Nagar

40 Mahaveer Nagar

57 Ramganj Bazar

59 KatlaMaket

59 BadiChopar

69 Surajpole Gate

75 Brahmpuri Bypass road

75 Brahmpuri

Merchant Survey- Content

Listing proforma-Merchant

1. Basic information: (Ownership type, whether registered or not?, activity status, annual turnover, number of persons currently employed)

2. Gadgets ownership (used only for business) (Computer without internet, computer with internet, laptop without internet, laptop with internet, point of Sale (PoS), mobile phone,

3. Mobile type (Smart phone, smartphone with internet, feature phone, feature phone with internet).

Listing proforma-Merchant…Contd…

4. Wireless (Wi-Fi)/broadband internet connection

5. Savings and debt (Bank account, its type {saving account, Current account}), bank account linked adhaar and mobile number, whether loan or not.

6. Digital payment type (Internet banking, Mobile banking)

7. Mode of payment to customers and suppliers (Only cash, cheque, debit card, credit card, internet banking, mobile Payments)

Listing proforma- Households

1. Basic information: (Household size,number of youth (13-35 years) in the household, highest education attained by any member of the household)

2. Household activity:

• Own business outside household with fixed structure (Shops)

• Own business outside household without fixed structure (Roaming/temporary)

• Own business inside house

• Individual service provider (Fixed remuneration/activity based remuneration)

3. Source of household income (Primary and secondary)

4. Annual household income from all sources

Listing proforma- households…Contd…

5. Gadgets ownership (used only for business) (Computer without internet, computer with internet, laptop without internet, laptop with internet, point of Sale (PoS), mobile phone)

6. Savings and debt (Bank account, its type {saving account, Current account}), bank account linked adhaar and mobile number, whether loan or not.

7. Digital payment type (Internet banking, Mobile banking)

8. Do you or any member of household perform following activities(Pay utility bills (Electricity, Water bills etc.) Online Shopping Mobile recharge

Merchant Survey- Content

Major content – Merchant Questionnaire

I. Information about enterprise

• Description of major activity

• Ownership types

• Year and nature of operation

• Registration and its type

• Business inventory and tracking.

II. Information about Principle owner

• Age and gender

• Level of education

• Vocational training

• Identification (Adhaar card, PAN card, Valid passport…)

Merchant Questionnaire…

III. Household member profile

• Household size, earners, children less than 5 years

• Highest education of the household

• Primary occupation of household

• Total household income

• Contribution of business to household income.

IV. Employment

• Number and type of employees

• Computer literacy of all employees

• Profile of employee responsible for major financial transaction

• Age, Gender, type, education, technical training

• Salary and mode of receipt

• Ease of use of payment method by employee handling financial transaction.

Merchant Questionnaire…

V. PAYMENT PORTFOLIO

• Ownership of computer/laptop, mobile phone, point of sale, internet and its types

• Digital infrastructure related to business

• Bank account, type, its linkages with adhaar card , mobile number,

• Access to banking services (Debit/Credit card, check, internet banking, mobile banking)

• Usage of bank account

• Mode of payment acceptance from customers and pay to the suppliers

• Perception regarding usefulness of various payment types.

VI. SALES PORTFOLIO

• Sales and customer activity (daily sales, regular customers, home delivery, credit facility to customers, average credit period)

• Total sales (current and expected)

• Mode of payment (before, upon and after delivery)

Merchant Questionnaire…

VII. CASH MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO

• Liquidity and cash management

• Frequency of deposits

• Safety and sense of security in transporting cash

• Theft, leakage

• Cost of banking transactions.

VIII. SUPPLIER’S PORTFOLIO

• Total annual material cost (last financial year, current and next three years)

• Share and mode of payment (before, on and after delivery)

• Information of top three suppliers (Their respective contribution to total raw material, supplier type, frequency of delivery per month, credit period)

Merchant Questionnaire…

IX. BUSINESS EXPENSE PORTFOLIO

• Amount and modes of payment of the business expenses

• Wages

• Transportation

• Fuel

• Landline

• Mobile recharge

• Internet

• Water and electricity charges

• Rent/leasing

• Taxes

• Other services.

Merchant Questionnaire…

X. LOAN PORTFOLIO

• Outstanding loan

• Debt penetration

• Type of loan (personal/business loan)

• Preferred source of credit (formal/informal)

• Asset mortgage

• Purpose of loan, future intention.

XI. SAVING PORTFOLIO

• Amount

• Cross market savings portfolios

• Purpose of savings especially business savings.

Merchant Questionnaire…

XII. DIGITAL READINESS, LITERACY AND AWARENESS

• Reasons of using and not using digital payments,

• Willingness to adopt digital payments upon imparting training

• Knowledge of using digital payment methods.

Expected Outcome

Expected outcome

• The holistic outline presents the agenda which will create a sustainable payment play in Jaipur. The findings of the research study expects the following:

The ecosystem approach to envelop the merchants as well as consumer needs.

True merchants and consumers perceptions.

Formulate the base for decisions by underlining the current requirements and pain points of both traditional and modern payment methods.

Contd…..

Focus to develop scalable solutions

The baseline information will be used to benchmark the impacts of digital payments by merchants as well as consumers in the future.

Further, this primary information will provide helpful background information for conducting a detailed cost‐benefit analysis to CATALYST to assess the feasibility of transitioning targeted merchants and consumers to use digital payments in the future.

Time frame

Time frame

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Listing April 2017- May 2017

Main Questionnaire May 2017 – June 15, 2017

Data editing and validation June 30, 2017

First cut results July 2017

Workshop (Baseline) August 2017

People Research on

India’s Consumer Economy

A not-for-profit Research Centre

www.ice360.in

(c) 2016, People Research on India's Consumer Economy (PRICE), India

Thank you