IMPACT

12th September 2002 1

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty

IMPACT

12th September 2002 2

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of ExtreMe Flood Processes And UnCertainTy

IMPACT

12th September 2002 3

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty

A (brief) Intro

12th September 2002 4

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Introduction

• The problem to be solved• Scientific objectives and approach• Benefits of the IMPACT project• Implementation

12th September 2002 5

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

The problem to be solved...

“The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures”

(Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)

12th September 2002 6

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

The problem to be solved...

“To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”

12th September 2002 7

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

Objectives are to:

• Advance scientific knowledge / understanding

• Develop predictive tools / methods

in four areas:

12th September 2002 8

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

• Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2)

• Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3)

• Movement of sediment (WP4)

• Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5)

( Recommendations from CADAMwww.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM )

12th September 2002 9

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

Sediment Movement

FloodPropagation

Breach Formation

Risk AssessmentCombined inputs with associated uncertainty demonstrated through

case study applicationImplications for End User

Applications

12th September 2002 10

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

Approach is via a combination of:

• Fieldwork

• Laboratory physical modelling

• Desk analysis

• Computational modelling

including assessment throughout of process uncertainty

12th September 2002 11

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Benefits of the IMPACT Project

Ultimately a reduction in risk to the public through:

• improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc.

• improved reliability of modelling tools

• improved understanding of modelling results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning

12th September 2002 12

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Key Aspects of Implementation

The Overall Approach

• Keep focus on overall objectives, end users

• Interaction between theme areas: (1 project, not 4)

12th September 2002 13

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Key Aspects of Implementation

Interaction with European, US and National R&D

• Complement and benefit from National R&D

• Liase with US R&D programme

• Maximise scope and participation of additional organisations wherever possible

12th September 2002 14

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Key Aspects of Implementation

Dissemination:

R&D is pointless unless there is effective dissemination

12th September 2002 15

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Key Aspects of Implementation

Effective dissemination means:

• End user take up / application of results

– therefore results need to match end user needs!

• Dissemination internationally to different user groups:

– dam & defence owners / emergency planners / insurance companies / consulting companies / researchers / planners / developers / designers / etc. etc. etc.