ore than twenty years after the last census in Bosnia and Herzegovina, its effects are still evident in the ethnic politics of the country. BiH is now a post-war country of ‘two entities and three ethnicities,’ with a

Constitution discriminating against all those who don’t belong to one of the privileged ‘constituent peoples,’ and a public discourse that is dominated by ethno-politics.

The next census in April 2013 can be an opportunity for change, even though there are concerns that it may be conducted undemo-cratically. The new census provides a chance to protest against the current state of affairs. Through a civic campaign in which citizens refuse to declare themselves one of the three privileged ethnicities, the census can be a referendum on ending ethnic su-premacy and discrimination against ‘the Others.’

This campaign will be a chance for the birth of a new, civic constituency that will fi-nally have a common voice, make-up, agenda, and even representation. Civil society and all other stakeholders committed to civic values, including the international com-munity, should embrace this chance to establish the ‘Fourth BiH’ and join efforts in making it possible.

—Darko Brkan, May 22, 2012

“M

”

Creating a Civic Constituency in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Darko Brkan Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow

National Endowment for Democracy 22 May 2012

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.

I. INTRODUCTION TO THE BASIC CONCEPTS

II. THE CENSUS AND “THE OTHERS”

III. THE ROAD TO “THE FOURTH BiH”

IV. THE CAMPAIGN

V. RECOMMENDATIONS

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

I. INTRODUCTION TO BASIC CONCEPTS

1. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2. ETHNO-POLITICS 3. CIVIC CONSTITUENCY

•Defined as a state by the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995)

• Comprised of two entities • Republic of Srpska

• Federation BiH

• Federation BiH consists of 10 Cantons

• Brčko District is an autonomous district

BASIC FACTS ON BiH – TERRITORY

• State level • Presidency – 3 members • Two chamber parliament (15 + 42) • Council of Ministries (10)

• Republic of Srpska Entity • President and two vice presidents • Two chamber parliament (28 + 83) • Government (17)

• Federation BiH Entity • President and two vice presidents • Two chamber parliament (58 + 98) • Government (17) • 10 cantonal parliaments and governments

BASIC FACTS ON BiH – GOVERNMENT

28 14

83 8 8 8 4

98 17 17 17 7

9 5 3 1?

˃5 - Bosniak - Serb - Croat - Other - Any

Main Characteristics

• Defined in the constitution • “Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs, as constituent peoples (along with

Others), and citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina hereby determine that the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina is as follows…”

• Enshrined in the legislation • Election legislation, civil service legislation, human rights

protection legislation, etc.

• Public discourse dominated by ethno-politics

• Ethnicity protection presumed to justify any public action

ETHNIC SOCIETY IN BiH – THE DOMINANT THREE

• Majority of the population identifies with one of the three ethnicities

• Any of the ethnic groups is much bigger than any other non-ethnicity based group in the society

• Each ethnic group has a common and inherent political agenda

• Ethnic groups are the only relevant groups with a common political agenda

• Ethnic groups have a unified voice and representation

• Ethno-politics results from the necessity to protect ethnic groups

• The three groups fought the war – current political reality is a compromise to end it

ARGUMENTS FOR ETHNO-POLITICS

• Mostly perceived as “The Others”

• Undefined in terms of make-up, agenda, or political representation

• Lacks a common voice in public discourse

• Geographically dispersed

• Perceived as a minority

CIVIC CONSTITUENCY – CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS

II. THE CENSUS AND “THE OTHERS”

• Conducted in March 1991

• The last accurate demographic set of data in BiH

• The impact of the question on ethnicity

• The impact of the 1990 elections – referendum on ethnicity

• Result –current legislation related to ethnic representation is based on it

THE LAST CENSUS

THE 1991 CENSUS - RESULTS

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

TOTALBosniaks

SerbsCroats

4,377,033

1,902,956

1,366,104

760,852

TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats

4,377,033 1,902,956 1,366,104 760,852

100.00% 43.48% 31.21% 17.38%

ETHNIC STRUCTURE – CURRENT ESTIMATES

TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats

3,900,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 550,000

100.00% 48.71% 35.89% 14.10%

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

TOTALBosniaks

SerbsCroats

3,900,000

1,900,000

1,400,000

550,000

ETHNIC STRUCTURE – CURRENT ESTIMATES

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

TOTAL1991

TOTAL2006

Bosniaks1991

Bosniaks2006

Serbs1991

Serbs2006

Croats1991

Croats2006

4,337,033 3,900,000

1,902,956 1,900,000

1,366,104 1,400,000

760,852 550,000

TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats

4,337,033 1,902,956 1,366,104 762,852

3,900,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 550,000

LET’S HAVE A LOOK AT HOW THE ETHNIC STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED...

1991 vs. NOW?

THE MISSING LINK

TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats

4,377,033 1,902,956 1,366,104 760,852

100.00% 43.48% 31.21% 17.38%

The 1991 Census

Current Estimates

TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats

3,900,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 550,000

100.00% 48.71% 35.89% 14.10%

43.48 + 31.21 + 17.38 = 92.07

48.71 + 35.89 + 14.10 = 98.70

7.93% = ???

1.30% = ???

“The Others” – all of the population of BiH that is not Bosniak, Serb or Croat - Constituent

Constituencies of “The Others”

• 17 ethnic minorities in BiH

• People from mixed marriages (not deciding between their parents)

• People who don’t identify with ethnicity

How are they represented

• Census 1991 – under-represented

• Current estimates – not even considered

• Public perception of “The Others” as non-constituent

“THE OTHERS” – ETHNIC PERSPECTIVE

• The name itself

• Election legislation (Presidency, House of Peoples)

• Sejdić-Finci case at the European Court of Human Rights

• Many elected offices (House of Peoples in both entities, Governments on state and entity levels, parliaments on state and entity levels)

• Civil service employment procedures and legislation

• Even the institution of the Ombudsman for Human Rights

• Police governing body

“THE OTHERS” – EXAMPLES OF DISCRIMINATION

• Ethnic minorities – probably between 100-150,000 people

• People from mixed marriages – potential of several hundred thousand (12% of all marriages since the ’70s, over 25% in bigger cities)

• Not identifying with ethnicity – several hundred thousand, mostly urban areas (reference – recent elections)

• On the 1991 Census – 347,121 people identified as not one of the three main ethnicities

HOW MANY ARE “THE OTHERS”?

III. THE ROAD TO “THE FOURTH BiH”

• Giving voice to the “Civic Constituency”

• Introducing civil society (ie. society of citizens) as a legitimate alternative

• Giving a public platform to all not favoring the exclusivity of ethnic representation

• Ending discrimination against “The Others”

• Providing the basis for ending ethnic supremacy

GOALS OF “THE FOURTH BiH”

Traditional constituencies: “The Others”

1. Ethnic minorities

2. Undecided from mixed marriages

3. Not identifying with ethnicity

The new constituency

4. Civic concept as a response to ethno-politics

a. Don’t agree with ethnic representation as such

b. Don’t agree with the discrimination

c. A bridge from “The Others” to “The Civic Constituency”

FOUR CONSTITUENCIES OF THE FOURTH BiH

IV. THE CAMPAIGN

Advocates for civic values in past years

• NGOs

• Political parties/politicians

• Academics and engaged public figures

• Individual citizens and informal civic groups

• International community

• Independent media outlets

ADVOCATES & CAMPAIGNS TO DATE

THE CENSUS FORM

G R A Đ A N I N

• It will have tangible results

• It will have direct and indirect implications on the legal system and public discourse

• All major actors, domestic and international, will be interested and engaged

• It opens an arena to debate ethnicity issues

• It is a chance to mobilize people

• It is a chance for a broad coalition of civil society

• It is a chance to include various stakeholders

• It can counter all ethno-politics based arguments

WHY IS CENSUS THE RIGHT TIME AND PLACE

ARGUMENTS FOR ETHNO POLITICS ARGUMENTS FOR CIVIC CONSTITUENCY

• There is a considerable population NOT identifying with the three ethnicities

• This group is bigger than or equal to at least one of the constituent groups

• The above mentioned group has a common and inherent political agenda

• “Civic constituency” is also a relevant group with a common political agenda

• This group also has a unified voice and representation • Civic constituency’s goal is to protect individuals and

human rights • The three groups have had enough exclusivity – it is

time for a new social contract

V. NEXT STEPS

To BiH civil cociety and civic groups

• Be aware of the importance and implications of the census

• Form a strong and open coalition

• Formulate a strong and unified message

• Create an action plan both for the census and post-census campaigns

• Mobilize members and supporters

To public figures, academics and citizens

• Use media appearances to inform and engage the people

• Echo the civil society message to shape public debate

NEXT STEPS

To BiH political parties • Ensure fairness of the census To parties against ethnic exclusivity • Support the goals of the campaign • Call on members to participate To parties for ethnic exclusivity • Refrain from militant rhetoric • Refrain from using fear/hatred campaigning around census To the international community • Time to walk the walk • Condemn any use of militant rhetoric • Prevent forging of the results • Empower civil society and help with the campaign implementation

NEXT STEPS

THANK YOU!