IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014) March 2014. CONTENTS 1.Summary 2.National Member Organization 3.Some Leading US Personalities Associated with IIASA

IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014)

March 2014

CONTENTS

1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Some Leading US Personalities Associated with IIASA4. Research Partners5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights6. Capacity Building7. Selected New Projects8. Further Information

SUMMARY (2008-2014)National Member Organization

National Academy of Sciences (NAS)



Membership start date 1972 (founding member)




Research partners 59 organizations in the US





Areas of research collaborations

Advancing Energy and Integrated Assessment Modeling in the USGlobal Energy Assessment and the USCurbing the Release of Black Carbon and MethaneProjecting Changing Population in the USImproving the Use of Land for Food and for Combating Climate ChangeAdvising Countries with Economies in TransitionIncreasing the Resilience of Vulnerable CommunitiesAnalyzing Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics







Capacity Building 68 young scientists from the US have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program3 in IIASA’s Postdoctoral Fellowship Program3 in the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program








Publication output 605 publications








Publication output 605 publications

Staff Over 40 US nationals have been employed by IIASA every year

NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION• National Academy of Sciences (NAS)• Professor Donald Saari, Director, Institute for Mathematical

Behavioral Sciences at the University of California, Irvine, is IIASA’s Council Member

• US Committee for IIASA:– Professor Donald Saari (Chair), University of California, Irvine– Dr. Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation– Dr. Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute – Dr. Brian O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research– Professor Stephen Robinson, University of Wisconsin-Madison (Emeritus) – Dr. Barbara Boyle Torrey, National Institute of Aging, NIH– Dr. Elke Weber, Earth Institute, Columbia University

• The NMO Secretary for the US is Kathie Bailey, Director, Board on International Scientific Organizations, NAS.

SOME LEADING US PERSONALITIES FROM GOVERNMENT AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA

McGeorge Bundy Steven Chu

John P. Holdren Robert S. McNamara Norman Neureiter

E. William Colglazier

SOME LEADING US PERSONALITIES FROM ACADEMIA AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA

George Dantzig

William D. Nordhaus Jeffrey Sachs Thomas C. Schelling

Donella & Dennis L MeadowsNathan Keyfitz Tjalling Koopmans

COLLABORATING, RESEARCH & FUNDING PARTNERS

• 59 institutions in the US, including: • National Science Foundation (NSF)• White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)• US Department of State • US Department of Energy (DOE)• US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)• Harvard , Princeton, and Yale Universities• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)• Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)• Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)

RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS

Selected Highlights:• Direct Sectoral Emissions• Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2000-2100• Global Energy Assessment and the US• Tackling Black Carbon and Methane• Projecting Changing Population in the US• How Much Carbon does the World’s Forests Absorb?• Climate Change, Energy and Water Nexus• Security in the Age of Systemic Risk

DIRECT SECTORAL EMISSIONS

2010 level

Source: Krey V, Luderer G, Clarke L & Kriegler E (2013). Getting from here to there - Energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Climatic Change

• Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & US partners:

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100

16

MESSAGE(IIASA)

AIM(NIES)

GCAM(PNNL)

IMAGE(PBL)

Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2).

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE US

17Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE US

18Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

• 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: 1. Ensure universal access to modern

energy services2. Double the global rate of

improvements in energy efficiency3. Double the share of renewable

energy in the global energy mix

Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189

Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

CO2 measures

IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009

Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon

CO2 + Near-term measures

GAINS identified 14 key air quality measures that if implemented could slow the pace of global warming, save millions of lives, and boost agricultural production.

Global temperature 1900-2070

These 14 measures are‒ win (for air quality),‒ win (for near-term climate change)‒ win (for economic development).

TACKLING BLACK CARBON AND METHANE

• Feb 2012: US State Secretary Hillary Clinton launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants

• Today, CCAC has 33 member countries, 39 International Organizations and IIASA’s Markus Amann on scientific committee

TACKLING BLACK CARBON AND METHANE (2)

Comparing fertility among religions in the US

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US

Religious groups Total fertility rate

Muslims 2.84

Hispanic Catholics 2.75

Black Protestants 2.35

Liberal Protestants, excluding Blacks

1.84

Jews 1.43

U.S. population average 2.08

Source: Skirbekk V, Kaufmann E & Goujon A (2010). Secularism, fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The religious composition of the United States to 2043. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 49(2):293-310

New ways to measure aging: Not on people’s chronological age but on remaining life expectancy, people’s health and cognitive function

65 years old in 1965 = 73.4 years old in 2007Source: Sanderson, W. C. and Scherbov, S. (2013), The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging. Population and Development Review, 39: 673–685.


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United States - Base Year 2010

Population in Millions

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FemalesMales310.4 Million

FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USSUSTAINABILITY

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United States - Projections 2030 - SSP1


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PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USSUSTAINABILITY

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FemalesMales432 Million


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United States - Base Year 2010


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FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USFRAGMENTATION

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PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USFRAGMENTATION

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HOW MUCH CARBON DOES THE WORLD’S FORESTS ABSORB?

Source: Pan Y, Birdsey RA, Fang J, Houghton R, Kauppi PE, Kurz WA, Phillips OL, Shvidenko A, Lewis SL, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Jackson RB, Pacala SW, McGuire AD, Paio S, Rautiainen A, Sitch S & Hayes D (2011). A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science, 333(6045):988-993

Decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity due to lack of cooling-water

Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS

SECURITY IN THE AGE OF SYSTEMIC RISK

• This workshop explored applying approaches used by natural scientists to model uncontrollable events such as epidemics to explore the threats posed by small-scale dangers in today’s societies that could pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks (workshop at IIASA organized by Professor Simon Levin)

• IIASA as a meeting place for international and interdisciplinary dialog and research (c. 100 events a year).

CAPACITY BUILDING

68 US citizens won places on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) between 2008

and 2013

POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS• Carl Salk (2013 to present): Using IIASA’s Geo-wiki crowd sourcing tool to generate better

land cover maps. (8 journal articles)• Wei Liu (2012 to present): How changing land use affects ecosystem service provision and

natural hazard vulnerability in Wolong Nature Reserve in China. (1 journal article) • Narasimha Rao (2011-2013): Relationship between electricity access, livelihoods and carbon

dioxide emissions in India. (7 journal articles)• Jose Siri (2009-2011): How urbanization affects the transmission of mosquito-borne disease.

(8 journal articles)

SELECTED NEW PROJECTS

• Shale Gas – A Possible Bridge toward Sustainable Energy Futures?

• Arctic Flagship Project• Eurasian Economic Integration

ESTIMATED SHALE GAS RESOURCE

14,803 TCF ≈ 15 ZJ → 100 yr of current gas use → 900GtCO2

SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS OF BLACK CARBON IN THE ARCTIC

Source: Stohl, A., Klimont, Z., Eckhardt, S., Kupiainen, K., Shevchenko, V. P., Kopeikin, V. M., and Novigatsky, A. N. 2013. Black carbon in the Arctic: the underestimated role of gas flaring and residential combustion emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8833-8855

EURASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION• Analyze the challenges and benefits of greater economic integration between Russia,

Belarus and Kazakhstan

• Explore future collaboration between Ukraine, Russia and EU

• Study scenarios of Eurasian integration from Shanghai to Lisbon, its global integration,

and future roles of key players including China, EU, Japan and Russia

• Partners include:

• Administration of the President of the Russian Federation,

• Russian Academy of Sciences,

• Eurasian Development Bank,

• Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

FURTHER INFORMATION

IIASA and the USwww.iiasa.ac.at/usa

National Academy of Scienceshttp://sites.nationalacademies.org/PGA/biso/IIASA/index.htm

[email protected]

Documents

IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014) March 2014. CONTENTS 1.Summary 2.National Member Organization 3.Some Leading US Personalities Associated with IIASA