Charles VorosmartyUS Arctic Research CommissionFinland Arctic Advisory Board

May 22, 2014

The US Arctic Research Commission: an overview

&Thoughts on Synthesis Studies and the Need for Integrated 

Earth System Science Perspectives

FRANCE CORDOVA

‐Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1984‐Executive Order 12501 (‘85 Pres. Reagan)

•Created USARC and IARPC                  (Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee)

•Defined their roles and responsibilities

•White House (OSTP & OMB) shall coordinate and review Arctic research budget requests and address icebreakers

USARC’s duties:• Develop national Arctic research policy• Facilitate Arctic research cooperation (w/IARPC)• Review federal Arctic research programs• Recommend improvements for data sharing• Facilitate cooperation w/Alaska & internationally

Kivalina, AK9/15/09

‐Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1984‐Executive Order 12501 

(‘85 Pres. Reagan)

Created USARC and IARPC                  (Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee)

“Goals Report”5 major research themes for 2013‐14

• Environmental Change• Arctic Human Health• Civil Infrastructure• Natural Resource Assessment & Earth Science

• Indigenous Languages, Identities, Cultures

Other USARC products & services

Self‐subscribe to newsletter at www.arctic.gov

Other USARC products & services

• Sea ice and marine ecosystems• Terrestrial ice and ecosystems• Atmospheric studies• Observing systems• Regional climate models• Adaptation tools for sustaining communities• Human health

U.S. to Take Chairmanship of Arctic Council: 2015‐17

Easy to ConnectScenarios to the 7 U.S. Arctic Research Themes

Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programsthrough the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office. Co-sponsored by theInternational Arctic Research Center (IARC) / University of Alaska Fairbanks,and the International Study of Arctic Change (IARC).

Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the

Arctic System Lessons from the NSF-FreshWater

Integration (FWI) Project

Charles Vörösmarty

EXAMPLE OF RECOGNIZED SYNTHESIS: NSF FreshWater Integration Study (FWI)

• 5-year effort w/ 22-funded FWI Projects• $30M portfolio (land/atmos/ocean/social

dimensions) • Project Office at UNH (PI: Vörösmarty, co-I: Hinzman)

• >100 peer-reviewed publications

• >>100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums

• > 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students

• Organizing framework of FWI was the full pan-arctic drainage basin

• Well-bounded component of the larger Earth system

• The most land-dominated of all ocean basins

• Has clear connections to the global ocean and climate systems

Yet another boundary: BiogeophysicalPan-Arctic Watershed

Arctic Research Policy Act

Having a “Unifying Concept” EssentialThe Hydrologic Cycle Links Every Major

Component of the Arctic System

• Physics• Biology• Biogeochemistry

• Human-induced change

• Natural variability• Human vulnerability

.… and central to the analysis of:

Science Focal Points Also Essential…and Essential to Maintain These Throughout

Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying?

Q2: If So, Why?

Q3: What Are the Implications on the Earth system and humans?

0°

60° 120°

180°

240°

300°

360°

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

0°

60° 120°

180°

240°

300°

360°

Longitude Longitude

Coverage or Quality

GoodPoor

Year

• Spatially/temporally patchy• Quality: High to Low• Challenging to explain in aggregate

SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING

1900-70

Paleo

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

Paleo

1900-70

INDUCTIVE PATHSpecific to General

DEDUCTIVE PATH General to Specific

• Spatially/temporally contiguous• Physically-consistent but incomplete• Gap-filling

SYNERGY BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED OUTPUTS

Observations Model Outputs

The Search for Coherence between Models/Obs

Example: CCSM3 Modeled Eurasian River trend over 20th

century = 6.7e-3 Sv/century (2.11 km3/yr)Results in 7% increase in Eurasian river flow

over the centuryAgrees well with observed trends discussed by

Peterson et al. (2002) (12%, 2.05 km3/yr)

Dat

a G

ap

Value of These Principles:2002: Baseline stocks & fluxes of fresh water largely educated guesswork

• Major uncertainties • Budget “unbalanced / unclosed”

• NATO ASI: FW Budget of the Arctic Ocean

2006: Baseline stocks & fluxes of fresh water largely quantified

• Budget exercise motivated an unprecedented synthesis of literature, observation, and model-based knowledge

• Budget closes w/in error bounds of observations

• Several sub-domains successfully quantified

• Time variations recognized as next big challenge

Serreze et al. 2006, JGR-Oceans

CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group

White et al. JGR, Biogeosciences 2008

Documenting the basic character of

Example: Permafrost lakes

Smith et al. 2005

CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group

Rawlins et al., J. Climate (2010)

Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle

Data synthesis and modeling--not quite as easy as it may seem--long-term coherent time series are more than ever critical

CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group

Francis et al. 2009. J. Geophysical Research

Feedbacks & implications on major subsystems thru heuristic scenarios

Heuristic modeling approach to identify the major actors & their links--agents of --recipients of --feedbacks

defined by closed loops

Major findings--many of the feedbacks are positive

--many benefit productivity of ecosystems & human well-being

CONTRIBUTION TO IIASA/AACA ARCTIC FUTURES EFFORT

• Heuristic model first –extend to “biogeochemical Nexus”: H2O,carbon, energy, nutrient cycles

• Then Intermediate Complexity Models• Build toward more formal Arctic Earth Systems model

IIASA/AACSMODELS AND SCENARIOS

Emphasis on Human Systems, Technology, Development Trajectories

Earth System Dynamics, Feedbacks, Tipping Points

COUPLED HUMAN-EARTH

SYSTEM RESPONSE

CONTRIBUTION TO IIASA / AACA ARCTIC FUTURES EFFORT

Arctic ESM

IIASA/AACSMODELS AND

SCENARIOS AND POLICY-

ENGAGEMENT

IMPACTS OF POLICY ON

EARTH SYSTEM

Observatories for Tracking

ESM-Compatible Framework

IMPACTS OF EARTH SYSTEM FEEDBACKS TO

POLICYopportunitiesconstraints

design, optimizationAMAP links

• Mean land PPT 2-3% globally over last century• Winners/losers

• Variability increasing

2011 NRC Committee on HydrologicSciences Report on Climate and Hydrology Extremes

Major disconnect between climate and hydrologic sciences AND the management community…design of effective climate adaptation strategies will remain unrealized (cf. America’s Climate Choices).THE REASONS:

--Nomenclature, even among the scientists, is wildly different

--Planning based on statistical stationarity no longer in play, alternatives not yet available

--Planning horizon mismatch to signal-to-noise in climate models

Co-Design Will Be Criticale.g. from United States

International Workshop on the Transfer of Science to Decision Making

in the Arena of The Changing Ice-Snow-Water Nexus

Science Workshop (1.5 days)plus Policy Forum and Private Sector Dialogue

GOALS: (1) Identify key obstacles (science, cultutral, cognitive, bureacratic) to the knowledge transfer

(2) Link to research opportunities(3) Create an ongoing dialogue space

Dates: September 2014 (specific dates TBD)Venue: World Bank, Washington, DC

• Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic hydrologic system

• Many changes coincident with accelerated hydrologic cycle

• Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated hemispheric change to diversified local-scale change

• Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for analyzing behavior of the fully linked water system

• Limits arise from incomplete data, model components, and approaches for linking these

http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/

Lessons from the US National Science FoundationFreshWater Integration (FWI) Study: SCIENCE

• Integration doesn’t just happen: Resources/thinking needed to integrate otherwise independent studies

• Consensus-building: Needs coordinating structure w/ suitable balance of top-down & bottom-up approaches

• Shared sense of purpose: Clearly-stated, finite set of science questions & policy themes

• Focal points/concrete targets: Formulate active Working Groups with time tables for specific WG products

http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/

Lessons from the US National Science FoundationFreshWater Integration (FWI) Study:

EXECUTING SYTHESIS