IGP CSAT Paper 2 Decision Making Problem Solving Part 1

8/10/2019 IGP CSAT Paper 2 Decision Making Problem Solving Part 1

1/4

WWW.UPSCPORTAL.COMClick Here to Buy Full Study Kit in Hard Copy

http://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/study-kit-for-ias-pre-gs-paper-2-2012

Click Here For Integrated Guidance Programmehttp://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/integrated-free-guidance-programme

Matters at Stake

Good problem solving and decision making can avert tragedy and help the people recover from the eventmore quickly. Conversely, poor decision making? or the absence of decisions? potentially can result in injury or

death to victims or responders. (Clearly, in our case study, if the District Magistrate makes a poor decision-orsimply doesnt make any decision before its too late-the consequences could be disastrous for the people of Murariganj

and Dumdama.

But the repercussions dont stop there. Poor decisions in the early stages of an event can make the responders

job more difficult and more dangerous. In addition, they can give rise to much more critical or complex decisionslater on? not to say the consequences on the lives of the local people. Good decision-making skills are one of your

most critical assets as an Administrator, and CSAT will test on this account before you step to the next stage forthe selection to top administrative jobs in India. In this book , we shall familiarize you with what CSAT will

actually attempt to test in you.We take here a case study to understand this aspect of making decisions in emergency

Making Decisions in Emergency

Case Study* - Floods Fury and Koshis Wrath in North Bihar

Instructions:Read the following case study. As you read, try to identify what decisions must be made by the District

Magistrate or other emergency management officials. Mind your ideas as you read the situation.

Background: Heavy rains have hit, and the entire area of the Koshi belt in the North Bihar bordering Nepal is inundated

due to change of course of Koshi. The district town of Sakri-located in the North Biharsits high and well away from the

fury of Koshi, so the fear of floods is riot much of concern of the people in the Town. As the DM of Sakri district, last year

you got a new chute(gutter, passageway) built to increase the capacity of the Reservoir in Sakri to 35 Crore litres of

water. Two other subdivisional towns downstream-Murariganj and Dumdama are less than 15 minutes of drive from Sakri.

Each Town has about 10,000 residents on both the sides of National Highway 77.

Events ChronologyLate afternoon Rains begins, and the Meteorological Office at Patna predicts it will be a strong, pachhuwa (Westerli(e),

which will produce heavy rains.

8:12 p.m. A flash flood watch is issued by the Meteorological Office.

8:30 p.m. Heavy rains begin.

10:15 p.m. The Executive Engineer of Sakri stations a Junior Engineer on the dam to watch for, and report any problems.

The Junior Engineer sees water pouring a good 2 feet over the chute. (It was later estimated that the reservoir was

holding 55 Crore litres of water during and after the storm!)

Decision Making and

Problem Solving
http://www.upscportal.com/http://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/study-kit-for-ias-pre-gs-paper-2-2012http://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/integrated-free-guidance-programmehttp://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/integrated-free-guidance-programmehttp://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/integrated-free-guidance-programmehttp://upscportal.com/civilservices/online-course/study-kit-for-ias-pre-gs-paper-2-2012http://www.upscportal.com/


2/4




11:30 p.m. Six inches of rain have fallen over the last 3 hours.

1:15 a.m. The Junior Engineer sees a section of dirt break away.

1:30 a.m. When water recedes below the top of the dam, Junior Engineer and other workers discover that water has

eaten around the drainage and is gradually carving away the side of the earthen dam. A first attempt at closing the hole

with sandbags fails when the force of the water carries the bags right through.

1:45 a.m. As the DM of Sakri , you are now in meeting with the Executive Engineer of Sakri, the PWD Engineer, the SP,

the Chief Medical Officer of Sakri, and the District Disaster Cell Manager to discuss the situation.

* The names of some of places and other recognized symbols could be fictitious and resemblances to events already

occurred or occurring to the situations described here are only coincidental. This is just an academic reconstruction.

Decision Points

What decision points did we identify in the above situation? It is to be noted that the central problem is that

if the dam breaks, the people in the downstream towns will be flooded. Numerous decisions must be made to

address this problem. Some of the key decisions that must be made are as follows, and we probably identified

others as well.

1. Should residents in the two downstream subdivisional towns of Murariganj and Dumdama be evacuated?

2. If the decision is to evacuate, when should the evacuation take place?

3. Who will notify the populace of the evacuation, and how?

4. What additional resources will be necessary to accomplish the evacuation and provide any shelter needed?

5. What is the most effective way to keep the dam from collapsing, and what resources will be needed to

accomplish that?

DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Whether making ordinary day-to-day decisions or critical, time-sensitive decisions during an emergency

using a standard problem-solving model will help ensure that your decisions are rational and logical.

Problem Solving VS Decision MakingLets first clarify what we mean by problem solving and decision making and how they go together:

Problem solving is a set of activities designed to analyze a situation systematically and generate, implement, and

evaluate solutions.

Decision makings a mechanism for making choices at each step of the problem-solving process.

Decision making is part of problem solving, and decision making occurs at the every step of the problem-solving

process.

Problem-Solving Model

There are many different decision-making/problem-solving models that a decision making person can use

Following is a five-step model which may be used in an emergency situation.

Step 1 Identifying the problemStep 2 Exploring the alternatives

Step 3 Selecting the best alternative

Step 4 Implementing the solution

Step 5 Evaluating the solution situation

When using this model, each step may be completed quickly, but every step must be considered. It is not

necessary to document each step, but it is important to think through every step.


3/4




Step 1 Identifying the Problem

Problem identification is undoubtedly the most important? and the most difficult? step in an situation. Whetherall subsequent steps are productive or not, will be based on how you define and assess the problem at hand.

What i s a P r ob l em ?

Situation or condition of people or the organization that will exist in the future, and that is consideredundesirable by members of the organization is called a Problem.

P r obl em o r Sol u t i o n?

We must distinguish between a problem and its solution in carrying out Step 1. Defining problems in termsof their solutions is the most common error in problem solving. Sometimes people think that they are articulating

problems when actually they are stating a potential solution.

Ma r k i n g Ou t t h e P r ob l em Pa r amet er s

v Identifying the problem also involves analyzing the situation to determine the complete extent of the problem

Problem parameters include :

v What is happening (and is not happening)?

v Who is/are involved?

v What the stakes are?

Checklist for Identifying, Defining, and Analyzing Problems

1. Is this a new problem? (Answer in Yes or No)

2. Is the problem clearly and precisely stated? (Answer in Yes or No)

3. What assumptions are We making about the problem? Are they true? (Answer in Yes or No)

4. What would happen if nothing were done about this problem? (Answer in Yes or No)

5. Can the problem be restated in other terms? If yes, how? (Answer in Yes or No)

6. What data are Known that bear on the problem?

7. Is the information accurate? (Answer in Yes or No)

8. Are there any precedents or rules about other procedures that apply to the problem?

If so, what precedents or rules apply? (Answer in Yes or No)

9. What additional facts are needed to analyze the problem? ( Make a List)

10. Is it possible to interpret the facts differently? How would that affect the problems solution? (Answer in Yes or No)

11. Do I have to make this decision, or does someone else? If this decision is someone

elses to make, whose is it? (Answer in Yes or No)

Step 2 Exploring the Alternatives

To explore alternative solutions to the problem identified in Step 1 is the second step in the decision-makingprocess. This step really consists of two parts

v Generating alternatives

v Evaluating alternatives

Me thods o f Gene ra t i n g A l t er n a t i v es

So, what process should we use to generate the alternatives for the case study? There are three ways to

generate alternatives.

v Brainstorming can be done individually or in a group. Brainstorming requires an environment in which theparticipants (individuals or group members) are free to think out loud. Participants blurt out as many

ideas as possible within a specified time period.


4/4




Surveys economically tap the ideas of a large group of respondents. Surveys present respondents with theproblem and a series of alternative solutions.

Discussion groups should consist of those who are directly involved in decision making. In generatingalternatives, the group members should

1. Focus on the problem, not on the personalities of the people involved in the decision-making process

(But be sensitive to the impact of personalities on the process.)

2. Avoid initial judgments (as in brainstorming).

3. Be comprehensive.

Criteria for Evaluating Alternatives:We must have some means of evaluating them,after we havegenerated alternative solutions. We should lists criteria by which we can evaluate alternatives. Another part of

evaluation is identifying contingencies-what could go wrong. Think in terms of Murphys Law (If anything cango wrong, it will.) and identify what could get in the way of solving the problem you are facing.

Criteria for Evaluating Alternatives

Questions to Ask

1. Identify Constraints, Do any of the following factors serve as a limitation on this solution?

Human resources (limited ability of relevant people to understand or initiate certain actions)

Social (restrictions imposed by organized groups with special interests)

Political (legal restrictions or ordinances)

Economic (cost or capital restrictions)

Technical (limited equipment or technology)

Time (requirements that a solution be found within a prescribed time period, thereby eliminating consideration

of long-range solutions)

2. Determine Appropriateness Does this solution fit the circumstances?

3. Verify Adequacy Will this option make enough of a difference to be worth doing?

4. Evaluate Effectiveness Will this option meet the objective?

5. Evaluate Efficiency What is the cost/benefit ratio of this option?

6. Determine Side Effects What are the ramifications of this option?

Step 3 Selecting the Best Alternative

To select one of the alternatives explored in Step 2 for implementation is third step in the problem-solving

model. After you have evaluated each alternative, one should stand out as coming closest to solving the problemwith the most advantages and fewest disadvantages.

Implementing the solution may not be easy, however. There may be repercussions, and you should completea reality check to identify and evaluate the possible consequences of implementing the solution. Carefully consider

how the solution will be implemented before selecting an alternative.

Selecting an alternative is a critical step in the problem-solving process. When selecting an alternative, you

will encounter factors that affect your decision making. These factors may include:

Ethical factors. Financial factors.

Political factors.

Environmental considerations.

Safety factors.

All of these factors may not be readily recognizable. Be alert for these potential limits on the solutions that

you can implement, as you examine the situation and apply the problem-solving model, .

Documents

IGP CSAT Paper 2 Decision Making Problem Solving Part 1