2010 IEEE/OES US/EU Baltic International Symposium

(BALTIC) August 25, 26, 27 2010 - Riga, Latvia

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The Gulf of Riga as a resource for wind energy – a project description

Urmas Raudsepp1, Rivo Uiboupin1, Uldis Bethers2, Juris Aigars3, Andres Kuresoo4, Ain Kull5, Ivar Jüssi6, Ainars

Auninš7, Liis Sipelgas1, Leho Luigujõe4, Antra Stipniece8

1Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 21, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia

raudsepp@phys.sea.ee 2Latvian University, Raiņa blvd. 19, LV-1586 Riga, Latvia

3Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Daugavgrīvas iela 8, LV-1048 Riga, Latvia 4Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi 1, 51014 Tartu, Estonia

5University of Tartu, Ülikooli 18, 50090 Tartu, Estonia 6Estonian Fund for Nature, Magasini 3, 51005 Tartu, Estonia

7Latvian Fund for Nature, Dzirnavu Street 73-2, LV-1011 Riga, Latvia 8Latvian Ornithological Society, A.k. 105, Riga, LV 1046, Latvia

Abstract- Wind is one of the main renewable energy resources. The planning of offshore wind farms is an ongoing process and the Gulf of

Riga region is no exception. Accurate information on marine wind field with high spatial and temporal resolution is therefore needed. Rough ice conditions in the Gulf of Riga could impose a threat to the construction and operation of offshore wind parks. The Gulf of Riga is an important habitat area for marine mammals and birds. They could suffer the most from the operational activity of wind parks. People are afraid that their living standards may decrease. In several cases it remains uncertain how the planned wind parks contribute to the energy needs of adjacent counties.

The project aims directly at producing policy-relevant and scientifically based information on wind energy fields, the most affected key natural species populations and social reactions of and economic benefits for the entire Gulf of Riga region. A decision-making tool based on spatial planning methods of the GIS environment will be developed to facilitate common planning for the exploitation of wind energy in the Gulf of Riga region. Dynamic maps of wind energy, ice conditions, migrating and wintering bird populations, and seals dating back to 2001 and having the projection to future climate will be produced. The indicators for spatial planning with regard to public attitude towards the development of wind parks and for the quantification of local plans concerning renewal energy consumption will be developed and integrated into the decision-making tool. The outputs of the project contribute to the elaboration of policy-relevant, environmental and socio-economic issues related to the exploitation of renewable energy.

The project objectives are to provide the decision-makers and potential developers of wind parks in the Gulf of Riga with reliable marine wind information derived from high-resolution remote sensing data, coastal wind measurements and an ensemble of regional climate models. Wind fields will be complemented with the information on habitat areas for seals and wintering, migrating and breeding birds. Local people and authorities will be involved in the active process of the selection of suitable areas for wind parks through mapping their attitude and considering the requirements for the areas of renewable energy.

The project partners are research institutes and funds for nature from Estonia and Latvia and the project period is from July 2010 until June 2012. This project is financed by the Estonia-Latvia Programme. Estonia-Latvia Programme is implemented according to the principles of the European Territorial Cooperation and it supports cross-border cooperation between Estonia and Latvia. It is funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the Republic of Estonia and the Republic of Latvia.

I. INTRODUCTION

Due to the opening of the energy market in the EU the energy business will become international by nature. The use of renewable energy sources are encouraged by the EU authorities. Wind is one of the main renewable energy resources and has a high potential in the Gulf of Riga region. The planning of offshore wind farms is an ongoing process and the Gulf of Riga region is no exception. Both Latvia and Estonia could benefit from the wind parks there.

Accurate information on marine wind field with high spatial and temporal resolution is therefore needed. Rough ice conditions in the Gulf of Riga could impose a threat to the construction and operation of offshore wind parks. The development of wind farms will affect the entire Gulf of Riga environment. The Gulf of Riga is an important habitat area for marine mammals and birds [1]. They could suffer the most from the operational activity of wind parks [2]. People are afraid that their living standards may decrease. In several cases it remains uncertain how the planned wind parks contribute to the energy needs of adjacent counties. The decisions about the exploitation of wind energy on both sides of the Gulf of Riga should be harmonized. Therefore, GORWIND project was initiated.

II. GORWIND PROJECT – GENERAL DESCRIPTION

GORWIND project addresses three main problems in the development of offshore and coastal wind parks: 1) the identification of regions with sufficient/optimal wind energy for the operation of wind parks; 2) how to choose wind park locations having a minimum impact on the birds and seals; 3) what are the social expectations or/and concerns of local people and administrations, and energetic benefits. The project provides high spatial and temporal resolution marine wind energy fields, which have not been known so far. Integrating it with modeled and measured coastal winds gives a complete picture of the wind energy field. Seasonal coverage of wintering and migrating birds completes the fragmented knowledge obtained over the last decade. A common method for the whole Gulf of Riga enables to obtain a harmonized dataset with the reanalysis of historical data. The involvement of local people and administrations in the planning process of offshore/coastal wind parks is expected to change their unfavourable attitude.

The project aims directly at producing policy-relevant and scientifically based information on wind energy fields, the most affected key natural species populations and social reactions of and economic benefits for the entire Gulf of Riga region. A decision-making tool based on the spatial planning methods of the Geographical Information System (GIS) environment will be developed to facilitate common planning for the exploitation of wind energy in the Gulf of Riga region. Dynamic maps of wind energy, ice conditions, migrating and wintering bird populations, and seals dating back to 2001 and having the projection to future climate will be produced. The indicators for spatial planning with regard to public attitude towards the development of wind parks and for the quantification of local plans concerning renewal energy consumption will be developed and integrated into the decision-making tool. The outputs of the project contribute to the elaboration of policy-relevant, environmental and socio-economic issues related to the exploitation of renewable energy.

The project objectives are to provide the decision-makers and potential developers of wind parks in the Gulf of Riga with reliable marine wind information derived from high-resolution remote sensing data, coastal wind measurements and an ensemble of regional climate models. Wind fields will be complemented with the information on habitat areas for seals and wintering, migrating and breeding birds. Local people and authorities will be involved in the active process of the selection of suitable areas for wind parks through mapping their attitude and considering the requirements for the areas of renewable energy.

The project partners are: Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, University of Tartu, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Latvian University, Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvian Fund for Nature and Estonian Fund for Nature. The activities are planned for the Gulf of Riga region. The project period is from July 2010 until June 2012. This project is financed by Estonia-Latvia Programme. Estonia - Latvia Programme is implemented according to the principles of the European Territorial Cooperation and it supports cross-border cooperation between Estonia and Latvia. It is funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the Republic of Estonia and the Republic of Latvia.

The approach of the project is to treat the Gulf of Riga region as a whole. Therefore, the activities of the project are carried out for the entire area. The project consists of the most important aspects with regard to the developing of offshore/coastal wind farms: wind field and ice conditions, birds and seals, socio-economic environment and expectations. The activities are grouped into WPs by subjects.

III. WP2 – WIND ENERGY FIELDS AND ICE CONDITIONS

Marine wind and sea ice are two main physical parameters that are most important for wind farming. Three different methods – the analysis of in situ measurements, wind retrieval from satellite imagery and wind field modeling – provide us with a complete overview of wind field variations in space and time. The processing of Earth Observation data – remote sensing wind and ice imagery – and coastal weather station data enable to retrieve dynamic marine and coastal wind and ice maps for the period of time from 2001 until 2012. The maps will be complemented with model winds from an ensemble of regional climate models up to 2100.

Satellite data from optical sensors and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provide information on spatial distribution of marine wind and sea ice characteristics. Wind speed and direction measured at coastal weather stations serve as a basis for the validation of wind characteristics derived from the satellites and calculated by/using an ensemble of climate models. Bias corrections methods shall be applied to the regional climate modeling outputs to ensure their compliance with the observations during the contemporary climate period. Climate model results enable to assess the future projections of wind and ice conditions.

The activities with regard to wind and ice conditions in the Gulf of Riga can be grouped into three blocks: 1) the collection of existing data and selection of appropriate parameters for wind farming; 2) the implementation and improvement of data processing algorithms, and the validation; 3) the production of composite wind and ice maps and analyses of the results.

In order to combine the information from satellite remote sensing and meteorological stations, the method for the extrapolation of wind data from meteorological stations for the coastal zone will be developed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) model. Mapping and parameterization of the surroundings of weather stations is an important input for WAsP model to improve the wind data. The results of WAsP model enable to validate wind parameters derived from satellite imagery and to

perform skill assessment of regional climate models. The comparison of wind and ice data from satellite imagery and from regional climate model will increase the accuracy of both of these products.

The spatial distribution of wind and ice characteristics, wind anomaly areas and areas with extreme ice conditions will be retrieved from a combined analysis of satellite imagery, in situ measurements and model data. The maps will be included in the spatial planning tool (developed in WP4) and these will provide us with an overview of long-term wind and ice field variations in the Gulf of Riga region. The retrieved high-resolution wind maps will enable the decision-makers to define regions with optimal wind conditions for wind farming. The areas with rough ice conditions (e.g. ridged ice) indicate the regions where building and exploitation of wind farms would be costly compared to the areas with mild ice conditions. In addition, ice charts combined with the information on seal breeding areas (WP3) help to define regions where wind farming is impossible due to ecological conditions/restrictions.

IV. WP3 – SPATIAL MODELLING OF BIRD AND SEAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE GULF OF RIGA

Birds and seals are considered to be most vulnerable to the installation of windmill parks. The provision of a favorable conservation status for these species is among international obligations of all EU countries due to the requirements of the Birds and the Habitats Directives (79/409/EEC and 92/43/EEC). Offshore windmill parks may seriously conflict with important areas for breeding seals, as well as staging areas and migratory routes of water birds. The main threats are the degradation of existing important feeding and roosting areas, the disturbance of birds and seals; breeding habitat degradation due to possible negative impact of wind park installations to ice stability; potential collision of flying birds with windmill installations [2], [3]. The Gulf of Riga was classified among the four most important bird areas of the Baltic Sea with up to 1,5 million wintering waterbirds and is a very important habitat for ringed seals.

The current WP is planned for the inventory of waterbird and seal concentrations and seal migration routes in the whole Gulf of Riga by using common survey methods. Transect aerial survey [4] of wintering and spring migration staging waterbirds in the Gulf of Riga in January-February, April, May, and moulting and autumn migration staging waterbirds in July-August, October-November will be performed. The survey transects are 3 km apart. A double coverage of the project area in spring is necessary as the Gulf of Riga is globally famous for huge spring concentrations of arctic birds. Also the timing of migration of different species in April-May has distinct 2-3 peaks distributed from mid-April to mid-May. Breeding bird survey on about 50 islands will be performed in May-June. Ringed seals’ (Phoca hispida botnica) three dimensional habitat use will be studied by a telemetry survey. 15 ringed seals will be equipped with satellite-linked time-depth recorders. The mapping of breeding areas during March will be performed with the help of airplane observations using GPS linked digital camera photographs. As the ringed seals can breed only on certain ice formations, forecasting of the development of this ice type in certain areas is important. The satellite imagery of ice type obtained from WP 2 will be connected to the preferred breeding areas of the seals. A land based survey for the examination of breeding lairs and determination of breeding success will be carried out. Geostatistical procedures will be used for building spatial species distribution and density models for the whole study area. Bird distribution patterns will be analyzed in the context of geographical features (e.g. topography, bathymetry, sediments), physical parameters (ice coverage, currents, etc), food supply, and anthropogenic influences (shipping, fisheries). Telemetry data will be analyzed to map the distribution of species and the habitat use before and during ice season. Seal population dynamics is analyzed and a comparison of breeding areas in different winter scenarios will be done. The obtained dataset is compared with historical (1998-2010) datasets on bird and seal densities and distribution in the Gulf of Riga using existing databases, reports and literature.

Generating density estimates and spatial modeling of bird distributions in the Gulf of Riga will support environmental impact assessment studies in relation to the planning of offshore windmill parks [5]. The following results of WP3 will be directly used for the integrated assessment of potential large-scale infrastructure development projects:

1) Fine scale spatial models of the distribution of seabirds (at 1 km level) based on aerial surveys in all seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn);

2) Assistance with the identification of Specially Protected Area (SPA) for marine waterbirds according to the requirements of the Birds Directive and defining their boundaries in offshore areas;

3) Spatial models of island breeding birds and their feeding grounds in Riga Bay; 4) Supporting information on the existing knowledge on key bird areas (both coastal and marine) in 1998–2010 and earlier

(systematic surveys of wintering waterbirds in 1992–93, etc); 5) Three dimensional habitat use by ringed seals.

V. WP4 – ELABORATION OF A SPATIAL PLAN FOR THE GULF OF RIGA

Wind energy development in Estonian and Latvian coastal/offshore regions has had a stochastic character. The selection of wind farm sites has been based purely on wind and available land without community development interest, social aspects or nature

protection being taken into consideration. It has brought conflicts and resulted in planning delays and the rejection of projects and has created unnecessary opposition to any development and general negative attitude (NIMBY syndrome). There are number of factors (usually) limiting the use of wind energy that have mainly socio-economic characteristics and thereby are subject to a planning procedure being directly or indirectly affected by the legislation and public attitude. The studies of socio-economic phenomena often require the use of a different methodological approach than the studies of a purely natural phenomenon. The current work package incorporates the results of WP 2 and 3 as an input that is coupled with socio-economic layers according to relevant legislative basis to create a cross-border cohesive thematic plan of wind energy development that includes clear methodology (tool) being repeatable in any other coastal region.

The elaboration of the indicator set and planning of the issues for the marine and coastal (5–10 km) territories is the first step in coupling natural and socio-economic conditions. This list of indicators is a basis of inquiries on the existence and availability of spatial data such as basic topographic and thematic maps (1:10 000), technical infrastructure and sea use map and other relevant data (land use layers, hydro-morphological data layers and the borders of protected areas by type of protection aim) and information sources (marine law, planning law, building acts and building permissions in coastal waters, development plans and acts of local governments and regional governments). The second step is set up a methodological approach to define spatially explicit suitability classes for wind turbines by the use of synchronized thematic layers, a set of indicators and socio-economic factors. The acquisition of existing data layers and the elaboration of GIS layers from this data is an essential activity of the project. The acquired data and the data layers generated in WP 2 and WP 3 will be transformed into GIS layers according to the unified methodology.

In order to take into account the social aspect, a methodology for social questioning and target groups will be agreed upon and a questionnaire will be elaborated for a social survey in Estonia and Latvia. Prior to that, a short screening of national success stories in respect to social questionnaires will be performed in order to develop the best possible approach. Potential target groups are the local governments. For those interested, the questionnaires will be available on the web pages of counties. The implementation of the social questionnaire will be performed according to the agreed methodology simultaneously in Latvia and Estonia. The results will be converted into a spatial format as additional GIS layers and incorporated in the final product.

The interpretation of data is focused on defining the exclusion and restriction zones for wind farm development (both on land and in the sea) and compilation of spatial wind energy thematic planning maps. Thus, we expect to provide a) detailed information (wind, ice, limiting factors); b) a cohesive Estonian-Latvian cross border planning tool in agreement with good planning practices; c) a synthetic thematic map of the Gulf of Riga region indicating unsuitable areas due to planning restrictions by grade of severity and potentially favorable areas for wind development that merit feasibility studies.

VI. EXPECTED RESULTS OF THE PROJECT

The main result of the project is that a holistic overview will be produced for the entire Gulf of Riga region for the planning and development of offshore and coastal wind farms. The information about the Gulf of Riga which is the most relevant in terms of wind energy and ice conditions, bird and seal distribution, social attitude and energetic benefits will enable to determine the areas of sufficient/optimal wind energy for the operation of wind parks that have the minimum impact to the birds and seals and that have no severe opposition from local people and so that the energetic benefits of local administrations are taken into account.

The project produces a long-lasting decision-making tool for the development of wind parks in the Gulf of Riga. It is expected that project results will strengthen the joint management of the Gulf of Riga resources by the Latvian and Estonian stakeholders. The awareness of local people will increase as to the physical, environmental and energetic factors of the area. It provides a solid basis for the land-use planning on the county and municipal level and it improves the knowledge base of strategic impact assessments. In a very broad sense, it is the novel approach for the planning and development of wind farms. Instead of consisting of a very site specific studies of key factors, this approach has a regional nature and it can be implemented also in other regions. The collected data can be used as a complete system for understanding the climate change impact on the Gulf of Riga.

REFERENCES

[1] J. Durinck, H. Skov, F.P. Jensen, and S. Pihl, “Important marine areas for wintering birds in the Baltic Sea,” EU DG XI research contract 2242/90-09-01. Ornis Consult report, 1994.

[2] A.L. Drewitt, and R.H.W Langston, “Assessing impacts of wind farms on birds,” Ibis, 148, pp. 29 – 42, 2006. [3] M. Desholm, J. Kahlert, “Avian collision risk at an offshore wind farm,” Biology Letters, 1, pp. 296 – 298, 2005. [4] C.J. Camphuysen, A.D. Fox, M.F. Leopold, and I.K. Petersen, “Towards standardised seabirds at sea census techniques in

connection with environmental impact assessments for offshore wind farms in the U.K,” Report commissioned by COWRIE for the Crown Estate, London. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Texel, pp. 38, 2004.

[5] A.D. Fox, M. Desholm, J. Kahlert, T.K. Christiansen, and I.K. Petersen, “Information needs to support environmental impact assessment of the effects of European marine offshore wind farms on birds,” Ibis, 148, pp. 129 – 144, 2006.