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© OECD/IEA 2015
Eric Masanet
Head, Energy Demand Technology Unit
7-8 October 2015 – ICEF Conference, Tokyo
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives for the Cement Industry
© OECD/IEA 2015
Specific thermal energy consumption in clinker production
Note: Historical data from CSI’s GNR database. Source: Energy Efficiency Indicators : Essentials for Policymaking, IEA, 2014.
Clinker making is becoming more efficient but…
© OECD/IEA 2015
…further action is needed to reduce the cement CO2 footprint
Global industrial direct CO2 emissions and final energy use
6DS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2015
How can the cement sector move from the current situation…
Energy consumption for cement production by fuel
Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.
41%
13%
30%
3%13%
2012: 1.6 EJOECD
70%
12%
7%
9%
2%
2012: 9.6 EJ
Coal Electricity Oil Gas Biomass & waste
Non-OECD
21%
18%
17%
11%
33%
2050: 1.5 EJ
39%
17%6%
13%
25%
20.5: 9.2 EJ
© OECD/IEA 2015
…to a sustainable future?
Energy consumption for cement production by fuel
Note: 2050 energy consumption based on ETP 2DS scenario Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.
41%
13%
30%
3%13%
2012: 1.6 EJOECD
70%
12%
7%
9%
2%
2012: 9.6 EJ
Coal Electricity Oil Gas Biomass & waste
Non-OECD
21%
18%
17%
11%
33%
2050: 1.5 EJ
39%
17%6%
13%
25%
20.5: 9.2 EJ
© OECD/IEA 2015
Increasing cement production poses a challenge,
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Clinker Substitutes Thermal energy intensity
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Cement production and thermal clinker energy intensity by region
Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.
© OECD/IEA 2015
... that opens new opportunities
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Clinker Substitutes Thermal energy intensity
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2012 2025 2050 2012 2025 2050 2012 2025 2050 2012 2025 2050
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Cement production and thermal clinker energy intensity by region
Note: Future years based on ETP 2DS scenario. Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP Industry Model developments aim at investigating low-carbon technology scenarios
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP Times Cement model scope
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP 2015 investigated the role of energy technology innovation in meeting climate mitigation goals
Industrial analysis key findings:
Progress on low-carbon industrial innovation over the next decade is crucial to achieve the 2DS with non-OECD countries being pivotal.
Integrating CCS, improving resource efficiency, reusing industrial wastes and diversifying product applications should be cross-sectoral industry goals.
Economic and policy uncertainty, and the need to manage risk and maintain competitive advantage, create substantial challenges to innovation progress.
Existing measurement methods are inadequate to assess low-carbon industrial innovation performance.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Direct industrial CO2 emissions 6DS vs 2DS
Low-carbon innovative processes become critical in the post-2030 timeframe to achieve 2DS trajectory.
6DS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2015
Cement direct CO2 emissions reductions 6DS vs 2DS by technology
Between 50% and 60% of required CO2 emissions reduction in the cement sector in 2DS in 2050 relies on deployment of innovative processes.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Direct industrial CO2 emissions reductions 6DS vs 2DS from innovative processes by region in the cement sector
Non-OECD countries are pivotal: growing materials demand and increasing importance in global markets, raise their potential to deploy innovative industrial processes more widely.
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2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GtC
O2
Low-demand
China India Other developing Asia Non-OECD Latin America Africa and Middle East Economies in transition OECD
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GtC
O2
High-demand
© OECD/IEA 2015
LOW-CARBON CEMENTS
INTEGRATING CCS
Cement main innovative low-carbon options
Note: This slide is not intended to provide an exhaustive list. Sketch is not at scale and time milestones are just illustrative.
POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE
OXY-FUEL COMBUSTION FOR CO2 CAPTURE
PILOT PHASE
2030 2050 2015
LOW-CARBON PROCESS INNOVATION
LOW-CARBON PRODUCT INNOVATION
AETHER CALIX CELITEMENT …
© OECD/IEA 2015
R&D intensity of companies within top 2000 world ranking by sector and region, 2012
Chemical businesses invest over five times as much as companies in other sectors in average pushed by the pharmaceutical sector.
Note: R&D intensity expressed as R&D spending as a share of sales. Source: The 2013 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard (dataset), EC-2013.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Business R&D spending in selected industrial sectors by region
OECD
CHINA
Note: Measured in terms of purchasing power parity expressed in current prices. Source: The OECD Analytical BERD (ANBERD) Database, OECD – 2014.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Opportunities for policy action
Design of stable, long-term sustainable and internationally coordinated strategies that valorise low-carbon industrial activity.
Implementation of transparent and results-oriented investment risk mitigating mechanisms targeting low-carbon industrial technologies.
Collaboration between industry and governments in the prioritisation of innovative sustainable industrial technologies and products.
Creation of co-operative innovation frameworks balancing cross-sectoral and international collaboration along product value chains.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Overview of IEA roadmap process
Engage cross-section of stakeholders
Identify a baseline:
Where is technology today?
Establish a vision:
What is the deployment path needed to achieve 2050 goals?
Identify technical, regulatory, policy, financial, public acceptance barriers
What are the near term action items?
Develop implementation action items for stakeholders
© OECD/IEA 2015
Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps – Industry related
Brazil cement:
Kick-off meeting Sept 2014
Collaboration among SNIC/ABCP, WBCSD-CSI and IEA
IEA modelling framework
Available at http://www.iea.org/roadmaps/
2009 2013 2015 Tentative 2017
Cement India Cement
Chemical catalysis
CCS
Hydrogen Brazil Cement
© OECD/IEA 2015
Thank you