15
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Gladiator Stocks: Series 13.0 Hindustan Unilever (HINLEV) (CMP- | 923.00) Technical View Strategy: Buy Hindustan Unilever in the range of | 905.00–925.00 for a target price of | 1095.00 with a stop loss below | 838.00 on a closing basis The share price of FMCG heavy weight Hindustan Unilever is attractively poised after the recent correction off the recent life-time high of | 981 anchored at the important support area of | 850 levels. It provides a fresh entry opportunity from a medium-term perspective to ride the next up move Key technical observations The share price of Hindustan Unilever witnessed a strong rally at the start of this year, sprinting from a low of | 752 to | 968 levels in January 2015. Thereafter, the stock entered a sideways corrective phase to work off the short-term overstretched conditions. The stock tested its important support area of | 850 during the March 2015 correction, which triggered value buying. As a result, this led to a steady bounce back on the price front. The confluence of following technical parameters converging around | 850 made this a key value area for the stock: The medium term rising trendline joining the May and December 2014 lows was placed at | 850 Value of rising 21 week EMA and the 100 day EMA, which have historically acted as a cushion to prices during intermediate corrections over last one year was also placed around | 854 levels The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January up move was placed at | 842 levels Time wise the stock has spent over 11 weeks under a corrective phase while retracing the four week January rally by just under 61.8%. Limited price correction and an elongated time wise correction is the primary attribute of a healthy correction phase within a secular uptrend. Therefore, we believe the current corrective phase has approached maturity and the stock has formed a potential higher bottom at the March 2015 low of | 849. It is set to embark upon its next up leg within the larger uptrend On the oscillators front, the weekly RSI tested its bull market support band placed at 50-55 readings during the recent correction and bounced back from thereon to confirm strength in the price up move from the value area of | 850. This signals continuation of the upward momentum in the short term Conclusion: We believe the stock is attractively poised and offers a good reward/risk set-up to ride the next up move. We expect the stock to head towards | 1095 levels in the medium term. The price equality of the current up move from | 849 levels with the January rally projects upsides towards | 1095 levels in the medium term Gladiator Stocks April 9, 2015 Time frame: 6 months Key Technical Data Recommended Price 905-925 Price Target 1095.00 Stoploss 838.00 52 Week High 981.00 52 Week Low 550.25 50 days EMA 897.00 200 days EMA 796.00 52 Week EMA 778.00 *Recommendation given on i-click to gain on April 09, 2015 at 09:32 hrs Stock price movement vs. BSE 200 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 540 590 640 690 740 790 840 890 940 990 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Hindustan Unilever BSEFMCG Price performance over last five years 18% 30% 29% 9% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year

IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

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Page 1: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Gladiator Stocks: Series 13.0 Hindustan Unilever (HINLEV) (CMP- | 923.00) Technical View

Strategy: Buy Hindustan Unilever in the range of | 905.00–925.00 for a target price of | 1095.00 with a stop loss below | 838.00 on a closing basis

The share price of FMCG heavy weight Hindustan Unilever is attractively poised after the recent correction off the recent life-time high of | 981 anchored at the important support area of | 850 levels. It provides a fresh entry opportunity from a medium-term perspective to ride the next up move

Key technical observations The share price of Hindustan Unilever witnessed a strong rally at the start of this year, sprinting from a low of

| 752 to | 968 levels in January 2015. Thereafter, the stock entered a sideways corrective phase to work off the short-term overstretched conditions. The stock tested its important support area of | 850 during the March 2015 correction, which triggered value buying. As a result, this led to a steady bounce back on the price front. The confluence of following technical parameters converging around | 850 made this a key value area for the stock:

• The medium term rising trendline joining the May and December 2014 lows was placed at | 850 • Value of rising 21 week EMA and the 100 day EMA, which have historically acted as a cushion to prices

during intermediate corrections over last one year was also placed around | 854 levels • The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January up move was placed at | 842 levels

Time wise the stock has spent over 11 weeks under a corrective phase while retracing the four week January rally by just under 61.8%. Limited price correction and an elongated time wise correction is the primary attribute of a healthy correction phase within a secular uptrend. Therefore, we believe the current corrective phase has approached maturity and the stock has formed a potential higher bottom at the March 2015 low of | 849. It is set to embark upon its next up leg within the larger uptrend

On the oscillators front, the weekly RSI tested its bull market support band placed at 50-55 readings during the recent correction and bounced back from thereon to confirm strength in the price up move from the value area of | 850. This signals continuation of the upward momentum in the short term

Conclusion: We believe the stock is attractively poised and offers a good reward/risk set-up to ride the next up move. We expect the stock to head towards | 1095 levels in the medium term. The price equality of the current up move from | 849 levels with the January rally projects upsides towards | 1095 levels in the medium term

Gladiator StocksApril 9, 2015

Time frame: 6 months

Key Technical Data Recommended Price 905-925

Price Target 1095.00

Stoploss 838.00

52 Week High 981.00

52 Week Low 550.25

50 days EMA 897.00

200 days EMA 796.00

52 Week EMA 778.00

*Recommendation given on i-click to gain on April 09, 2015 at 09:32 hrs

Stock price movement vs. BSE 200

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

540590640690740790840890940990

Apr-1

4M

ay-14

Jun-1

4Ju

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Aug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct-1

4No

v-14

Dec-1

4Ja

n-15

Feb-1

5M

ar-15

Apr-1

5

Hindustan Unilever BSEFMCG

Price performance over last five years

18%

30% 29%

9%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Year

Page 2: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Exhibit 1: Hindustan Unilever – Weekly Candlestick Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Research Analyst

Dharmesh Shah [email protected] Nitin Kunte, CMT [email protected] Dipesh Dagha [email protected] Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]

The stock is attractively poised after the March correction. We believe the stock has formed a potential higher bottom at March low of |849 and is set to embark upon its next up move leading towards |1100 levels in the medium term.

Weekly RSI is rebounding from its bull market support threshold of 50-55 readings and supports the bullish outlook on price front

981

Key rising trendline @ 850 Rising 21 week EMA @ 854 61.8% retracement @ 842

752

Price equality with Jan-Mar up move @ 1095

849

Page 3: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Fundamental view

• Being the country’s largest FMCG player, HUL’s volume growth has decelerated in line with the economic downturn. Volume growth has declined from ~13% (FY11) and ~9% (FY12) to ~4% in FY14. The slowdown is largely on the back of a slowdown in urban discretionary demand with rural growth remaining moderate. Going ahead, we believe volume growth would remain muted until FY15E led by the slower revival in GDP growth. However, we believe that as the economy revives and growth gains traction HUL’s strong portfolio of brands across segments would aid the company’s volume growth to return to 6-7% annually.

• HUL’s personal products (PP) (~29% of revenues, ~46% of PBIT in FY14) growth at 12.6% CAGR (FY10-14) has been largely led by volumes following lower penetration of oral, hair & skin care products in India and HUL’s strengthening presence across these segments led by its strong brands, Fair & Lovely, Ponds, Lakme, Clinic Plus, Close-Up, etc. However, following the slowdown in discretionary demand, increasing competition in PP segment and rejig in HUL’s largest PP brand (Fair & Lovely), its PP sales have witnessed a slowdown since Q3FY13. However, we believe, going ahead, HUL’s brand strength would revive sales growth in the segment to 13.4% CAGR (FY14-17E) as consumer demand gains traction.

• Soaps & detergents (S&D) comprises the largest revenue segment for HUL contributing ~49% to revenues (FY14). HUL’s strong brands in soaps (Lifebuoy, Lux, Liril, Rexona) and detergents (Wheel, Surf Excel, Surf, Vim) have aided the company’s dominant position in both segments (~40% of value share in detergents and ~45% value share in soaps) over the years, despite the constant tough competition from the other global player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%), S&D revenue growth of 13.4% CAGR in FY10-14 has been a mix of volume and price led growth. Going ahead, we believe with HUL’s pricing power in the segment along with increasing rate of premiumisation, S&D revenues would be largely price led with volume growth remaining modest. We expect S&D revenues to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from FY14-17E. With higher contribution of prices in the sales mix, we believe margins from the segment would also improve, thereby increasing the segment’s contribution to overall EBIT from ~40% in FY14.

• We expect S&D revenue growth at 10.9% CAGR (FY14-17E). For personal products, we believe higher innovation and premiumisation would be key revenue drivers. We expect heightened activity by the company in this segment to regain its lost volume growth. We expect the revenue growth in PP to revive to 13.4% CAGR (FY14-17E). For beverages, we believe premium tea and coffee would drive revenue growth at 12.0% CAGR (FY14-17E). We expect HUL’s food business growth to remain modest at 12.2% CAGR largely led by prices. With the prolonged revenue & earnings growth visibility led by a revival in volume growth, improving product mix and sustained price hikes, we believe the stock would command a premium to its peers.

Stock Data

Particular

Market Capitalisation Debt (FY14)Cash (FY14)EV 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value MF Holding (%)FII Holding (%)

| 13.82

15.01

Amount

| 198950 Crore| 0 Crore

| 13832.7 Crore| 185117.3 Crore

764 / 538| 216.3 Crore

Stock return (%) Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M

HUL -2.8 12.0 24.3 51.0ITC 0.1 -4.5 -5.4 0.2GCPL -2.9 18.1 20.3 40.3Colgate 1.3 8.9 21.8 50.9

Key metrics FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PE (x) 51.4 46.2 44.2 37.2Target PE (x) 50.5 45.4 43.4 36.5Div Yield 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0Mcap /Sales 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.3RoNW (%) 118.0 109.3 101.7 101.8RoCE (%) 128.6 124.6 126.2 126.9

Financial highlights | Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ENet Sales 27,408 30,324 33,311 37,398 EBITDA 4,475 5,189 5,872 6,967 Net Profit 3,867 4,303 4,500 5,354 EPS(|) 17.9 19.9 20.8 24.8 Adj. EPS(|) 13.3 14.9 16.0 18.1

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Container Corporation (CONCOR) (CMP- | 1705.00)

Technical view

Strategy: Buy Container Corporation in the range of | 1670–1705 for a target price of | 2070.00 with a stop loss below | 1510 on a closing basis

The share price of Container Corporation embarked upon a secular uptrend since 2012 and continues to stride northwards in a rising peaks and troughs fashion on all time frames. The recent three weeks corrective dip in price offers a fresh entry opportunity to ride the ongoing uptrend Key technical observations

The stock hit an all-time high of | 1774 in March 2014 and, thereafter, entered a corrective phase over the last three weeks. The share price garnered strong buying support at the key value area of |1520 and the resulting bounce back has seen stock post a faster retracement of the last down leg thus signalling an end of the minor corrective phase resumption of the upward momentum

The confluence of the following technical parameters converging around | 1520 made this a key support area and triggered value buying :

• The recent breakout area and November 2014 high of |1520 reversed its role and acted as a support signifying the change of polarity principle

• The value of the rising 50 day EMA, which has historically acted as a key support during intermediate corrections was then placed at | 1510 levels

• The 50% retracement of the February – March rally (|1298 to |1774) is placed at |1535 levels Another significant observation on the volume front is that rallies throughout 2014 enjoyed strong investor

participation as visible from rising volumes while secondary corrective decline remained low volume affairs highlighting larger participation in the direction of the primary trend. The price breakout above November 2014 high (| 1520) in March 2015 is backed by strong volumes almost five times the 50 weeks average volume of (6 lakh shares per week) indicating strong investor appetite for the stock

Among oscillators, the MACD (E-12/26/9) sustained above its trigger line during the recent corrective decline and has now generated a positive crossover above its 9 period average signalling resumption of upward momentum

Conclusion: We expect the stock to embark upon its next up move and head towards | 2070 levels in the medium term being the price parity with the previous up move from | 1200 to | 1774 as projected from the recent higher trough of | 1522

Time frame: 6 months

Key Technical Data Recommended Price 1670-1705

Price Target 2070.00

Stoploss 1510.00

52 Week High 1774.00

52 Week Low 881.00

50 days EMA 1544.00

200 days EMA 1351.00

52 Week EMA 1313.00

*Recommendation given on i-click to gain on April 09, 2015 at 09:39

Stock price movement vs. BSE 200

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,700

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14Ju

l-14

Aug

-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

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-14

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14Ja

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15M

ar-1

5A

pr-1

5

Concor BSE200

Price performance over last five years

-3% -34%10% 19%

85%

-60%

20%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Year

Page 5: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Exhibit 2: Container Corporation – Daily Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

The share price has resumed upward momentum after re-testing the recent breakout area of |1520 and provides fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move within the larger bull trend. We expect the stock to move towards |2070 levels over the medium term being the price parity with previous up move

The MACD has generated a positive crossover above its 9 period average signalling strength in the current up move and resumption of upward momentum

Higher volumes accompanying price rallies and shallow volumes during intermediate corrections highlights the overall positive price structure

Nov high @ 1520

1200

Price parity with previous rally at 2070

1774

Previous breakout area (|1520), 50 day EMA (|1510) & 50% retracement of Feb-March rally at |1535

Page 6: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Fundamental view

• Concor is well poised to benefit from an improving economic scenario owing to its pan-India presence and strong competitive intensity by virtue of infrastructure and scalability. It is planning to garner higher volumes and provide value added services and is, thus, investing in setting up private freight terminals (PFT) and multi modal logistic parks (MMLP) across 15 locations in India. Currently, the PFTs at Khatuwas and Nagulpally are operational and are expected to scale up in the near term. Further, Concor plans to acquire land in the central and eastern regions of the country, in close proximity to the dedicated freight corridor (DFC), to scale up its PFT business. Concor’s FY15 capex plan stands at ~| 1050 crore with nearly | 700 crore towards land acquisition. Further, in the next five years, Concor’s intended capex stands at | 6000 crore. Majority of it directed towards MMLP, thereby providing better visibility and stability to the revenues.

• Over FY10-13, Concor’s volume growth remained sluggish and grew at a CAGR of 2.2%. However, FY14 has seen a revival in cargo volumes with 10.9% YoY growth. Going ahead, we expect total cargo volumes to grow at a CAGR of ~11% over FY14-17E on account of the improving economic scenario and Concor’s strategy of providing better rates for volume commitments by clients

• Concor is the market leader with a dominant market share (79%) among container train operators while other CTOs are still miniscule in size. Concor has an unmatched infrastructure and existing pan-India presence that would enable it to capture higher volume growth in a improved economic scenario. It has made strategic investments in building infrastructure close to the proposed DFC with the intention of capturing higher volume share over the longer term. Further, with implementation of GST imminent we expect both Exim and domestic cargo to grow considerably. Consequently, we envisage earnings per share will register a CAGR of 16% over FY14-17E to | 76 with return on equity improving from 13.8% in FY14 to 15.8% in FY17E.

Stock Data

ParticularMarket Capitalisation Debt (FY14)Cash (FY14)EV 52 week H/L 1774/881Equity capital | 195 croreFace value | 10MF Holding (%) 5.6FII Holding (%) 25.0

Amount| 33340 crore

-| 2704 crore

| 30636 crore

Stock return (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Gati 1.5 -12.4 28.6 178.1Blue Dart Expres 2.2 7.9 36.3 100.8Concor 12.6 24 27..3 84.7Gateway Distrip -2.5 12.9 58.6 143.2

Key metrics FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

PE (x) 35.1 33.7 29.1 22.3

EV to EBITDA (x) 28.5 23.2 19.1 14.3Price to book (x) 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5RoNW (%) 13.8 13.1 13.7 15.8RoCE (%) 12.8 12.0 13.2 16.0

Financial highlights (|crore) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ERevenues 5108.5 5557.7 6521.1 7962.7EBITDA 1078.1 1306.1 1565.1 2010.6Net Profit 951.3 990.6 1144.9 1493.7EPS (|) 48.7 50.8 58.7 76.6

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 7: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Kansai Nerolac (GOONER) (CMP- | 237.00)

Technical View

Strategy: Buy Kansai Nerolac in the range of | 230.00–237.00 for a target price of | 275.00 with a stop loss below | 213.00 on a closing basis Key technical observations

The share price of Kansai Nerolac, a leading industrial paint maker, is seen resolving higher after completing an intermediate corrective decline from its January 2015 high of | 250. On Thursday, the share price pierced through the down trend line connecting weekly highs of January 2015, February 2015 and March 2015 signalling resumption of primary up trend

The corrective decline off January 2015 high of | 250, anchored at the key support of | 210 being the confluence of Bullish gap area of week ending January 16, 2015 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of most preceding up leg (| 186-| 250). After negotiating demand/supply equation at key technical support level, the share price resolved higher during current week highlighting continued buying support and formation of higher bottom. Time wise, the correction consumed nine weeks to retrace five week rally by just 61.8% indicating robust price structure

The stock witnessed steady accumulation near supports over past two weeks which is visible from the higher

delivery based volumes (two week average of 80%). The volume spurt at support also highlight the same

The bullish stance based on robust price structure is also validated by momentum indicators. In case of Kansai, displacement of weekly RSI around reading of 50 has signalled key reversals in price historically. While price held its own support, RSI also held above 50 during recent correction and continues to trend up thereby corroborating overall bullish stance from a medium-term perspective

Conclusion: Considering the overall positive price structure and momentum, we believe the stock offers a good reward/risk set-up to ride the next up move. We expect the stock to head towards | 275 in the medium term. The equality of current up leg with preceding up move (| 186 - | 250= 64 points) as projected from March 2015 lows of | 210 projects the target of | 275 levels

Time frame: 6 months

Key Technical Data Recommended Price 230-237

Price Target 275.00

Stoploss 213.00

52 Week High 250.86

52 Week Low 109.00

50 days EMA 225.00

200 days EMA 196.00

52 Week EMA 190.00

*Recommendation given on i-click to gain on April 9, 2015 at 10:28 hrs

Stock price movement vs. BSE 500

7,8008,3008,8009,3009,80010,30010,80011,30011,800

100120140160180200220240260

Mar-

14Ap

r-14

May

-14Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-1

4Oc

t-14

Nov-1

4De

c-14

Jan-1

5Fe

b-15

Mar-

15Ap

r-15

Kansai Nerolac BSE500

Price performance over last five years

67%

-6%

31%

5%

70%

-30%

50%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Year

Page 8: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

Exhibit 3: Kansai Nerolac – Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

The share price is seen resolving higher after an intermediate correction which anchored on key support of 210 being confluence of Fibonacci retracement and Bullish gap area Parity of current rally with the preceding up leg projects an up side towards 275 offering a decent opportunity to go long

RSI held its support near reading of 50 which has triggered key reversals in the past

186

13-Weeks EMA

61.8% @ 210 & rising gap

Equality with previous rise at 275

250

Page 9: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

Fundamental view

• KNL is India’s largest industrial paint company with ~35% market share in industrial paints and third largest player with overall 14% market share. With sustainable growth in decorative paints and subdued industrial demand, KNL has increased its revenue contribution in decorative paints from 50% in FY09 to 55% currently. It has strong brands in interior, exterior and metal paints like Impressions, Excel, Surkasha, Satin Enamel, Lotus Touch, Beauty, Pearl and Little Master. KNL continues to invest in brands with 4-5% of sales going into advertisement and promotion. We believe decorative paints would continue to grow strongly with the presence of limited players and strong repainting demand. We expect a revival in industrial paints demand (75% automotive paints), led by a recovery in the automotive segment. We expect blended volume CAGR of ~12% in FY14- FY17E

• The company supplies paints to many automobile players. They account for 30-35% of its sales with Maruti Suzuki being its largest client. Automobile demand has been subdued in the last two years as Maruti has seen ~1% volume CAGR in FY12-14. However, we believe a revival in industrial paints would lead to a recovery for KNL in industrial paints. Going forward, we believe there should be resumption in industrial paints growth as automobile (Maruti’s Passenger vehicle growth) growth is likely to be ~13% YoY in FY16E and ~14% in FY17E. We expect revenue, earnings to grow at a CAGR of 18%, 33% respectively, during FY14-17E

• Despite KNL consciously increasing its decorative paints contribution to 55% of sales from 50%, we believe the stock is still trading at a discount to Asian Paints. With improving margins, higher free cash flows and expanding return ratios, we believe the discount to Asian Paints would shrink and it would command a premium to its historic average of 22x. Further, with an improvement in automotive paint demand supported by higher demand for autos due to lower base effect, we expect industrial and decorative volume growth of 16% and 12% YoY, respectively, in FY17E. Simultaneously, higher operating leverage coupled with stable raw material prices are expected to lead to an expansion in operating margins by 379 bps by FY17E over FY15. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 34x its FY16E & 26x its FY17E earnings. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of | 267 (30x FY17E earnings).

Stock Data

Particular AmountMarket Capitalization (| Crore) 12,880.2Total Debt (FY14) (| Crore) 51.7Cash and Investments (FY14) (| Crore) 54.9EV (| Crore) 12,877.052 week H/L 250 / 109Equity capital (| Crore) 53.9Face value (|) 1.0MF Holding (%) 5.3FII Holding (%) 10.9

Stock return (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Asian Paints 1.4 3.4 33.2 57.3 Berger Paints 5.7 (6.4) 13.5 93.8 Kansai Nerolac 0.4 10.6 20.9 102.4 Akzo Noble (5.7) (1.0) 13.9 60.1

Key metrics FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

P/E 62.4 44.6 33.8 26.3 Target P/E 69.7 49.9 37.8 29.4 EV / EBITDA 35.6 26.8 20.3 16.0 P/BV 9.0 7.9 6.6 5.5 RoNW (%) 14.5 17.6 19.6 20.8 RoCE (%) 20.1 24.2 27.6 29.2

Financial highlights | Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ENet Sales 3,136.1 3,647.6 4,308.5 5,112.1 EBITDA 362.1 477.5 622.9 784.6 Net Profit 206.6 288.6 380.9 489.6 EPS (|) 3.8 5.4 7.1 9.1

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 10: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

Strategy Follow up Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment

9-Jun-14 EIH Hotels Cash Buy 94.00 150.00 74.00 32.00 Booked 50% profit at 124.009-Jun-14 Essel Propack Cash Buy 95.00 155.00 64.00 31.00 Booked 50% profit at 124.009-Jun-14 Federal Bank Cash Buy 117.00 165.00 97.00 17.00 Booked 50% profit at 136.509-Jun-14 SBI Cash Buy 271.00 351.50 235.00 Open1-Dec-14 Castrol India Cash Buy 496.00 660.00 430.00 Open27-Jan-15 Cummins Cash Buy 880.00 1070.00 795.00 Open28-Jan-15 Timken Cash Buy 520.00 675.00 445.00 27.00 Target almost achieved2-Mar-15 Simplex Infra Cash Buy 432.00 565.00 375.00 17.00 Booked 50% profit at 5062-Mar-15 Heidelberg Cash Buy 82.00 110.00 75.50 -8.00 Stoploss triggered4-Mar-15 Page inds Cash Buy 12400.00 15800.00 11100.00 9.00 Booked 50% profit at 135004-Mar-15 Cox & Kings Cash Buy 322.00 418.00 285.00 Open17-Mar-15 Torrent pharma Cash Buy 1135.00 1340.00 1020.00 10.00 Booked 50% profit at 1247

Page 11: IDirect Gladiatorstocks Series13content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Gladiatorstocks_Series13.pdf · player, P&G. Hence, in spite of the high penetration in the segment (~99%),

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 11

NOTES:

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis

• The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position,

it will be communicated through separate mail. Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate

equal amount to each recommendation

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Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Allocations Return Objective

Products Product wise allocation

Max allocation in 1 stock

Number of Calls Frontline Stocks Mid-cap stocks

Duration

Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.50-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 p.m 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technical 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash in Hand 10% - - - - -

100%

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

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Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

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ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.