IDirect TechnicalOutlook 2017 - Open Online Trading Accountcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_TechnicalOutlook_2017.pdf · Tata Motors Auto 450-470 565 403 23 Bharat Forge

Research Analyst:Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Dipesh [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak [email protected] [email protected]

Yearly Technical Outlook 2017Yearly 2017 Technical Outlook

December 23, 2016

Hunt for value amid rough weather: Going the bottom-up way…

…Bluechips indicating bullish undertone Sensex: 25979 Nifty: 7979yThe year 2016 will go down as the one filled with most uncertainty inrecent times as equity markets have weathered one storm after another,starting with slowdown in the Chinese economy, currency depreciation,Brexit, Donald Trump’s victory in US Presidential elections,Demonetisation and rate hike by the US Fed. The market took most ofthese events in its stride and is set to end CY2016 on a flat note whichhighlights that all the negative news has been absorbed very well

Projected upside towards 9600NSE Nifty Long Term Bar Chart

highlights that all the negative news has been absorbed very well

In this backdrop, the market might remain volatile in the initial part ofCY2017. However, we believe investors should look beyond near termconcerns as overall price structure is still positive. The risk/reward isfavourable for long term investment, therefore one should look toaccumulate quality stocks in a staggered manner for long term horizon.

We expect Nifty to conclude its current corrective phase going into 2017 Long Term 200

Major valuearea @ 7500

and resolve higher towards 9600 over the next 12 to 15 months whichprovides an upside of ~20% from current levels. We do not foresee theindex sustaining below its major value area placed around 7500 region.

In our endeavour to get a holistic view of the market, this time we havealso adopted a bottom up approach and screened all Nifty constituents onour statistical model based on key technical parameters. Findings from thebottom up approach also corroborate our positive stance and projects

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research All index charts are priced at December 16, 2016

week EMA

bottom up approach also corroborate our positive stance and projectsupside towards 9600 for the Nifty over the coming year.

The only risk to our bullish stance for 2017 would be if the market extendsthe time wise consolidation with limited price performance.

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Our bottom up thesis for stock selection from a larger universe of stocks

Scrip Sector Buying Range Target Stop loss Upside%Tata Motors Auto 450-470 565 403 23 Bharat Forge Auto Ancillary 940-985 1,195 818 24 ABB C t l G d 990 1030 1 295 858 28Our bottom up thesis for stock selection from a larger universe of stocks

reveals two broad themes, which could play out in the coming year:a) Underperformers that are poised at attractive value area but arecurrently out of the limelight. Sectors like IT, capital goods, infra, telecom,PSU banks are representing this basket and include the likes of BharatForge, ABB, NCC, Idea and ABFRLb) Relative outperformers in 2016 with a robust price structure that willextend resilience in 2017 This basket comprises stocks from auto NBFC

ABB Captal Goods 990-1030 1,295 858 28 Idea Cellular Telecom 70-76 96 61 32 NCC Construction 80-86 112 67 35 Zee Media Media 35-39 54 31 46 Aditya Birla Fashion Retail 133-140 170 118 25

Recommendations have been given on I-Click to gain

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extend resilience in 2017. This basket comprises stocks from auto, NBFC,specialty chemicals and media. We have covered Tata Motors, Zee Mediafrom this basket

…overwhelming majority of index constituents reflect bullish undertone

In addition to the top-down method of analysing the index, this time we have also adopted a bottom up approach by screening all Nifty constituents on our in-housestatistical model based on key technical parameters to form our view on the index for the forthcoming year. The objectivity driven analysis of each index constituentpresents a holistic view of the underlying trends across a broad spectrum of market and provides a unique perspective of gauging the market direction.Our statistical model evaluated the Nifty components having more than a decades trading history (44 stocks)* on various technical parameters to gauge the longterm trend, historical price wise and time wise behaviour during corrections, long term moving averages and momentum parameters.Outcome: An overwhelming majority of index constituents are favouring a bullish bias for the coming year. 21 index constituents have approached price wise, timewise maturity of correction and are set to begin fresh uptrend. Also,12 index stocks have already begun a fresh uptrend in 2016 while 6 index stocks continued theiruptrend and outperformed in corrective phase. Only 5 index constituents indicate that corrective phase is yet to approach maturity. Based on these observations,

Only 5 index stocks may extend corrective phase in coming

In the coming year, 39 out of 44 index constituents favour

uptrend and outperformed in corrective phase. Only 5 index constituents indicate that corrective phase is yet to approach maturity. Based on these observations,with almost 39 of 44 constituents carrying a combined weightage of ~78% on the Nifty pointing towards a positive outlook in the coming year, we believe thecurrent correction provides the best entry opportunity for investors to start accumulating quality stocks to ride the expected up move in the coming year.

How Nifty constituents stack up in our statistical models

year bullish trend

This bucket comprises stocks that have emergedout of multi-year range / major base formationsand have already begun fresh uptrend in 2016

The stocks under this bucket have outperformedthe benchmark on relative / absolute basis andcontinued their overall uptrend despite correctivephase on the benchmark

y g p

The stocks under this bucket are yet to complete price wise / time wise maturity of the corrective phase

This bucket comprises stocks that have approachedprice wise and time wise maturity of correction

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICIdirect.com Research

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*Seven stocks excluded from our model having less than a decades history carry a combined weightage of 6% on the index

Crystal gazing the bottom-up way: Nifty @9600

To derive a meaningful conclusion from the whole process of bottom up approach we have done the following exercise by projecting potential upsides for eachTo derive a meaningful conclusion from the whole process of bottom up approach we have done the following exercise by projecting potential upsides for eachindividual index components for the coming year. Based on their current free float weightage, we have arrived at a composite Nifty level for 2017. This method ofanalysis provides a holistic view of the index based on the technical observations on each of the index component.

Conclusion: Based on the bottom up approach, the composite value for the Nifty is projected at 9600 levels over the coming year.

Sector / Scrip Name ICICIdirect Technical Grade TechnicalCode Projection

Technical Observation

Auto & Anto Ancillary:Bajaj Auto ** BAAUTO Outperformer 3,000 Maintains rising trajectory in a long term up trending channel on quarterly chartsBosch BOSLIM Bargain Buy 23,800 Correction nearing maturity after two years of underperformance. Eicher Motors EICMOT Outperformer 24,800 Relative outperformance continued, appears overbought after a multi year rallyHero MotoCorp HERHON Structural turnaround 3,800 Structural uptrend to extend in 2017, recent correction a fresh buying opportunityMahindra & Mahindra MAHMAH Bargain Buy 1,350 At lower band of past two year's trading rangeMaruti Suzuki India MARUTI Outperformer 7,000 Outperformance is likely to be continued after an intermediate consolidation

Tata Motors TATMOT Outperformer 565Retesting previous breakout zone and 50% retracement of major move offers favourable Risk/Reward

Tata Motors Ltd DVR TMLDVR Outperformer 365 Anchored at trend line connecting 2011,2013, 2015 lows. Value buying likely

BFSI:Axis Bank AXIBAN Bargain Buy 570 Retraced 2013-15 rally by 60% and poised at long term trend line supportBank of Baroda BANBAR Bargain Buy 210 After multi year consolidation, poised at lower band of the channelHDFC Bank HDFBAN Outperformer 1,350 Relative outperformance continued. Time correction likelyHDFC Ltd HDFC Underperformer 1,380 Occurrence of long legged Doji on yearly chart signals pause in uptrend

IndusInd Bank INDBA Outperformer 1,150While higher high-low maintained, after five years rally indicators signal impending correction

Kotak Mahindra Bank KOTMAH Outperformer 800 Lower low and Doji on yearly chart after five year rally, signal pause in momentum

S k f I di S A AN S l d 310 Approaching maturity of long term basing pattern augurs well for turnaround in price State Bank of India STABAN Structural turnaround 310 Approaching maturity of long term basing pattern augurs well for turnaround in pricestructure

Yes Bank YESBAN Outperformer 1,300 Major outperformer from BFSI space to extend positive bias in 2017

Capital goods:BHEL* BHEL Underperformer 160 Further price damage looks limited but time correction likely to extend

Larsen & Toubro LARTOU Bargain Buy 1,700 Holding trend line connecting 2009-13 yearly lows. Time correction seems overdone

Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICIdirect.com Research

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* ICICI Securities has received an investment banking mandate for disinvestment in Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited. This update is prepared based on publicly available information


S t / S i N ICICIdi t T h i l G d T h i lSector / Scrip Name ICICIdirect Technical Grade TechnicalCode Projection

Cement and Cement products:ACC ACC Bargain Buy 1,500 Correction approaching price, time maturity and poised at long term averagesAmbuja Cements AMBCE Bargain Buy 250 Approached long term demand line drawn off 2008 and 2013 lows Grasim Industries GRASIM Outperformer 950 Poised for consolidation after three years of gains and significant overhead supply


UltraTech Cement ULTCEM Outperformer 3,700 After a multi year bull phase, time correction on the cards

Consumer goods:Asian Paints ASIPAI Outperformer 1,050 Breather likely in 2017 after five years of multi-fold gainsHindustan Unilever HINLEV Bargain Buy 970 Stock placed at lower band of two year consolidation rangeITC ITC Bargain Buy 260 Time wise correction approaching maturity, poised at key price retracement

Energy:BPCL BHAPET Outperformer 850 Structural uptrend intact, further upsides likely after an intermediate consolidation

GAIL (India) GAIL Structural turnaround 530Major consolidation over last six years. Higher high/low on yearly scale provide early signs of a turnaround

NTPC NTPC Structural turnaround 200First higher high-higher low on yearly charts in six years; suggests turnaround in price structure

ONGC ONGC Bargain Buy 250 After prolonged price/time correction a basing pattern at value areaONGC ONGC Bargain Buy 250 After prolonged price/time correction a basing pattern at value area

Power Grid Corporation ** POWGRI Structural turnaround 230 Seven year's consolidation breakout suggest turnaround in long term price structure

Reliance Industries RELIND Bargain Buy 1,200 At lower band of past eight years of consolidation favours Risk/Reward equationTata Power Co. TATPOW Bargain Buy 88 Poised near 2008 panic lows and oversold. A pullback is likely

Information Technology:HCL T h l i HCLTEC B i B 1 020 P i /ti ti i t it ft b i f ti t k t tHCL Technologies HCLTEC Bargain Buy 1,020 Price/time correction nearing maturity after basing formation at key retracement

Infosys INFTEC Underperformer 1,150 While price wise correction may be done, time wise correction likely to extend in 2017

TCS TCS Bargain Buy 2,750 Nearing price/time maturity going by one decade of price historyTech Mahindra ** TECMAH Bargain Buy 550 Buying emerged at key value area indicating end of corrective phase

Wipro WIPRO Bargain Buy 540 Deeply oversold and price correction equals 2007-08 correction, thus offering favourabe Risk/Reward

Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICIdirect.com Research

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S t / S i N ICICIdi t T h i l G d T h i lSector / Scrip Name ICICIdirect Technical Grade TechnicalCode Projection

Media:

Zee Entertainment ZEEENT Outperformer 510Occurrence of Doji on yearly scale after four year rally and at previous all-time peak suggests a pause in upward momentum


Metals:Coal India ** COALIN Bargain Buy 350 Poised at lower band of its trading history although no reversal signs yetHindalco Industries HINDAL Structural turnaround 215 Breakout from four year range after elongated price/time correction

Tata Steel TATSTE Structural turnaround 470 Yearly higher high-low after elongated time correction suggest turnaround in price structure

Pharma:Pharma:Aurobindo Pharma AURPHA Underperformer 840 Expect time/price correction to extend in 2017Cipla CIPLA Bargain Buy 650 Attracting demand at long term 200 week EMA and Risk/Reward favourable

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories DRREDD Underperformer 3,500 While price wise correction may be done, time wise correction likely to extend in 2017

Lupin LUPIN Bargain Buy 1,750 Poised at long term trend line connecting 2003-09 yearly lows. Value buying likely to emerge

Sun Pharmaceutical SUNPHA Bargain Buy 850 Two year corrective phase approaching inception point of 2014-15 rallySun Pharmaceutical SUNPHA Bargain Buy 850 Two year corrective phase approaching inception point of 2014 15 rally

Services:Adani Ports ** ADAPOR Structural Turnaround 350 Secular uptrend to continue after breakout from multi year consolidation

Telecom:

Bharti Airtel BHAAIR Bargain Buy 390 Placed at lower band of seven year consolidation range offering favourable Ri k/R d t

g yRisk/Reward setup

Bharti Infratel ** BHAINF Bargain Buy 450 Rally in 2013-15 retraced by 50% in equal amount of time. Poised at key value areaIdea Cellular IDECEL Bargain Buy 96 Equality with 2008 correction, extreme oversold on long term charts

Now, the next stage of this exercise is to see whether the top-down approach of chart analysis corroborates the bottom-up approach

Note: Stocks marked with ** are not considered for our statistical model as they have less than a decade’s trading history

Source: Bloomberg , Spider Software, ICICIdirect.com Research

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g p pp y p pp

Top-down approach also validates Nifty @9600

Moving back to the top-down form of analysing the charts for projecting the path of the Nifty in the coming year, we realise that the top down analysis alsoMoving back to the top down form of analysing the charts for projecting the path of the Nifty in the coming year, we realise that the top down analysis alsoremarkably corroborates the path projected by the bottom-up method. The dual confirmation of top down analysis and bottom up approach both pointing in thesame direction reconfirms our positive stance on the market for the upcoming year.The confluence of key technical factors converging around the 9600 region makes this a likely target for the coming year based on the following observations:

The 123.6% reciprocal retracement of the entire 2015-16 correction (9119 to 6825) is also placed at 9660Price wise equality with the 2016 up move (6825 to 8968) measured from the major support base of 7500 projects upside towards 9643 for the coming year

We do not foresee the index going below its major value area placed around the 7500 region as it is the confluence of following: A) The long term rising 200 weekEMA is at 7500 levels The index respected this long term moving average during all major corrections in 2011 2012 2013 and most recently even in 2016 B) TheEMA is at 7500 levels. The index respected this long term moving average during all major corrections in 2011, 2012, 2013 and most recently even in 2016. B) Thelower boundary of parallel channel marking equality with major rallies since 2008 is placed around 7500 region. Major bottoms of 2012, 2013 and 2016 are placednear the lower band of this channel. C) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016 rally (6825 to 8968) is also placed near 7600

123.6% reciprocal retracement of 2015-16 correction @9660 Equality with 2016 up move from major base of 7500 @ 9643

NSE Nifty Weekly Bar Chart

9119 8968

Value area @ 7500

q y p j @

633863576825

5118

200 week EMA @ 750061.8% retracement of 2016rally @ 7644Lower band of major risingchannel @ 7500

Long Term 200week EMA

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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The statistical analysis of all historical bull market corrections since 2003 provides vital insights into the market behaviour during and post such corrections. Since

Ignore noise rather capitalise on value area: Initiate staggered positions

2003, out of the 14 instances of bull market corrections, on 10 occasions the magnitude of correction has not been more than 12-15% from the intermediate top.Only in four instances has the correction been of deeper magnitude (25-30%). Key observation is that the index has never witnessed two consecutive correctionsmeasuring ~25%. This implies that within a larger uptrend 12-15% decline is a part of the normal bull market correction. Post the normal bull market correction,the index has given positive returns over the next six months to one year horizon on all 10 occasions.In the present context, the Nifty has already witnessed a 25% correction between March 2015 to February 2016. Going by the historical evidence, the currentdecline off September 2016 peak (8968) is also approaching price wise maturity as the index has already corrected ~12%. We believe the risk/reward has turnedextremely favourable for long term investment as major part of the price wise correction is already over. It is obviously difficult to predict an exact bottom.

Correction period % Fall6M return

%12M return

%

Therefore, investors with a long term horizon should start accumulating quality stocks from current levels itself and look for portfolio construction rather thanwaiting to catch the exact bottom.

NSE Nifty Monthly Bar Chart

-12%

Jan - Jun 2004 36 52 62Mar - May 2005 13 40 62Oct - Nov 2005 14 54 62May - Jun 2006 31 53 66Feb - Mar 2007 16 41 33Jul - Aug 2007 14 30 9 -14% -16%

-12%-11% -15%

-10%-18%

-25%

-28%

Jun - Jul 2009 16 25 37Oct - Nov 2009 12 12 29Apr - May 2010 11 22 16Nov 2010 - Dec 2011 28 16 30Feb - Jun 2012 15 24 22Jan - Apr 2013 10 15 22June - Aug 2013 18 23 55

-14%

-16%16%

Since 2003, majority of the bull market corrections havebeen to the tune of 12-15% from the highs whilesubsequent six month to one year performance hasyielded positive returns on every occasion

-31%

June - Aug 2013 18 23 55Mar - Feb 2015 25 29 -Sept 2016 till date 12 -Average Returns post normal correction

29 35

-13%

-36%


7

Midcaps to rule the roost…

The performance of broader markets as represented by the midcap and small cap indices, since 2014 till date testifies to the structural uptrend in our markets. Duringp p y p p p gthe entire corrective phase in 2015-16, broader markets outperformed the benchmark in relative terms. The midcap and small cap indices surged to new life-timehighs in 2016. The midcap index is up over 7% YTD against a modest 1% gain on the benchmark. We expect this relative outperformance trend of broader marketsto continue going into 2017 as well.In a structural uptrend, broader markets tend to outperform the benchmark as they reflect sentiments prevailing across a larger section of the market. The adjoiningcharts re-based to 100 compared the performance of broader market vis-à-vis benchmarks. As evident, broader markets underperformed the benchmark in the entirerecovery in 2009–10 and also during the up move in 2012–13 reflecting lack of broader participation. However, post the structural turnaround in 2014, broadermarkets have consistently outperformed the benchmark highlighting strong retail participation that is also reflected in the strong DII inflows.y p g g g g p p g

BSE Sensex and broader markets comparative chart ------ BSE Sensex ------ BSE Mid Cap Index ------ BSE Small Cap Index

Time period : 2014 till date – Broader markets consistently outperforming benchmark

Time Period : November 2010 to May 2013 – Broader markets consistently underperforming benchmark

Time Period : January 2008 to October 2010 Broader markets consistently underperforming benchmarkTime Period : January 2008 to October 2010 – Broader markets consistently underperforming benchmark

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research (Charts rebased to 100)

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Zeroing on top picks: Modus Operandi…

Over the last few years we have endeavoured to develop a more statistical approach to our stock selection process in addition to short-listing our top picks purelyOver the last few years, we have endeavoured to develop a more statistical approach to our stock selection process in addition to short listing our top picks purelybased on visual chart analysis. The virtues of such a statistical approach include (a) removing individual biases in stock picking;(b) efficient screening of market internals by adopting bottom-up approach;(c) achieving more objectivity in analysis to arrive at high probability investment ideasOur in-house statistical model includes technical screeners to identify relative strength, structural turnarounds and bargain buys.

QQUALITATIVEUALITATIVE FILTERSFILTERS

945 Stocks

All NSE cash stocks filtered basedon liquidity and price history

Qualitative filtersTechnical screeners on relative strength,MomentumTrend Analysis

BBUCKETINGUCKETING OFOF STOCKSSTOCKS

244 Stocks

Bucketing of stocks under keytechnical parameters

Relative strength: Outperformers, robustprice structure

Structural turnaround: Major price structureturns around after elongated periods of underperformance

Bargain buy: Stocks which are out of limelightbut poised at key support zones and nearmaturity of correction

OOPTIMIZATIONPTIMIZATION OFOF BUCKETSBUCKETS

Bucketing of stocks also throws upinsights on sectoral view

Further evaluation based on: Risk/reward setupVolatility Peer comparison

244 Stocks

78 Stocks

TTOPOP PICKSPICKS –– 7 7

Tata Motors, Bharat Forge, ABB, NCCZee Media, Idea Cellular, AB Fashion

Final bucket forms basis for short-listing ofour Top Picks for 2017 as they alreadyfulfilled major technical parameters

Top Picks for year 2017Stocks

Source: Spider Software, Bloomberg, Icicidirect.com Research

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Click here to go to top

Stock picks: How we zeroed in on our “Conviction Picks”…

S i N ICICIdi t B i R l ti T d /R t M t i (%)Scrip Name ICICIdirect Bargain Relative Turnaround / Code 6M 12M Buy Strength Breakout

Auto / Auto Ancillary:Balkrishna Inds BALIND 67.5 73.7 √Bharat Forge BHAFOR 32.5 15.9 √Eicher Motors EICMOT 15.0 33.7 √

Return Matrix (%)

Mahindra CIE MAHCIE -3.6 -28.5 √Maruti Suzuki MARUTI 24.3 10.7 √Tata Motors TATMOT 1.6 24.7 √

BFSI:Axis Bank AXIBAN -11.3 8.1 √Bajaj Finserv BAFINS 32.9 42.3 √j jBank of Baroda BANBAR 5.8 0.2 √Indian Bank INDIBA 84.8 103.1 √J & K Bank JAMKAS -6.9 -15.7 √St Bk of India STABAN 22.4 15.4 √

Capital GoodsA B B ABB -15 1 -7 6 √A B B ABB 15.1 7.6 √AIA Engg. AIAENG 24.4 47.8 √Greaves Cotton GREAVE -10.4 -13.4 √Larsen & Toubro LARTOU -9.1 4.5 √Siemens SIEMEN -12.0 -5.7 √Va Tech Wabag VATWAB -23.7 -31.8 √

CementCementAmbuja Cem. AMBCE -14.7 0.8 √J K Cements JKCEME 4.4 4.9 √The Ramco Cement RAMCEM -4.9 43.2 √UltraTech Cem. ULTCEM -5.9 10.4 √

Source: Spider Software , Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Construction & RealtyAshiana Housing ASHHOU -10.4 -15.7 √Hind.Construct. HINCON 94.2 61.9 √NCC NAGCON 8.2 6.7 √

Return Matrix (%)

Oberoi Realty OBEREA 6.8 21.1 √

Consumer GoodsBajaj Corp BAJCOR -10.4 -17.8 √Hind. Unilever HINLEV -8.1 -5.5 √ITC ITC -5.4 7.4 √Jubilant Food. JUBFOO -22.3 -41.3 √Jyothy Lab. JYOLAB 20.4 18.1 √United Spirits UNISPI -6.7 6.3 √Nestle India NESIND -15.8 -12.4 √Titan Company TITIND -21.0 -36.0 √VST Inds. VSTIND 33.0 41.1 √

DefenceDefenceBEML Ltd BEML 9.4 -27.6 √

EnergyB P C L BHAPET 21.8 35.9 √Coal India COALIN -8.3 -9.2 √GAIL (India) GAIL 10.0 25.4 √M R P L MRPL 44 7 37 9 √M R P L MRPL 44.7 37.9 √O N G C ONGC 43.3 35.3 √Reliance Inds. RELIND 9.0 7.1 √


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Information TechnologyHCL Technologies HCLTEC 9.4 -2.5 √Mindtree MINLIM -20.6 -32.9 √Persistent Sys PERSYS -11.3 -8.5 √

Return Matrix (%)

TCS TCS -12.1 -5.3 √Tech Mahindra TECMAH -11.6 -9.5 √Wipro WIPRO -16.0 -16.4 √

Logistics/ Aviation/ ServicesAdani Ports ADAPOR 33.1 6.2 √GE Shipping Co GESHIP 17.7 -0.5 √pp gJet Airways JETAIR -34.7 -42.0 √

MediaTV18 Broadcast TV18 -10.8 -12.3 √Zee Media ZEEMED 44.6 68.9 √

MetalsMetalsHindalco Inds. HINDAL 42.4 111.7 √Hind.Zinc HINZIN 56.7 85.0 √NMDC* NATMIN 37.1 41.5 √S A I L SAIL 17.2 10.1 √Tata Steel TATSTE 26.1 60.5 √

A i ltAgricultureSwaraj Engines SWAENG 20.1 43.2 √Tata Chemicals TATCHE 13.9 24.9 √

PaintsKansai Nerolac KANNER 10.7 34.6 √* ICICI Securities has received an investment banking mandate for disinvestment in NMDC Ltd. This update is prepared on the basis of publicly available information


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PharmaBiocon BIOCON 34.9 101.3 √Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 2.2 3.2 √Jubilant Life JUBIND 76.4 48.7 √

Return Matrix (%)

Lupin LUPIN 0.7 -17.4 √Merck MERLIM 48.6 36.4 √Sun Pharma.Inds. SUNPHA -14.9 -20.0 √Syngene Intl. SYNINT 46.4 50.3 √

PowerK E C Intl. KECIN -0.8 -16.0 √NHPC Ltd NHPC 6.5 36.5 √NTPC NTPC 5.0 17.7 √Power Grid Corpn POWGRI 17.2 36.0 √Tata Power Co. TATPOW 4.7 18.7 √

TelecomBharti Airtel BHAAIR -14 4 -4 2 √Bharti Airtel BHAAIR 14.4 4.2 √Idea Cellular IDECEL -24.5 -43.4 √Bharti Infra. BHAINF 1.9 -13.4 √

TextileAditya Birla Fashion & Retail ADIFAS 4.1 -37.6 √Raymond RAYMON 2.2 13.5 √

Disclaimer: Kindly note that only seven stocks highlighted in red box are our recommended stocks. Rest of the stocks are not being recommended by I-Sec in this report but are displayed only to demonstrate stock selection process.


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Tata Motors (TATMOT): Attractively poised at lower band of rising channel…

CMP: |469 00 Buying range: | 450 00 470 00 Target: | 565 00 Stop loss:| 403 00 Upside: 23 %

• The auto sector has been a clear outperformer in 2016. Tata Motors hasbeen one of the key contributor to the relative outperformance with YoYgains of over 20%

• Structurally, the stock has been consolidating in a broader range of

CMP: |469.00 Buying range: | 450.00-470.00 Target: | 565.00 Stop loss:| 403.00 Upside: 23 %

The stock is attractively poised at majorsupport and offers good entry opportunityfor investors

Weekly Bar Chart

59880% retracement @ 565

y g g| 600-280 since early 2015 thereby creating a higher base for itself after astupendous performance in 2012-15. The share price has recentlycorrected from its September 2016 high of | 598 thereby working outoverbought conditions created by the six month rally off February 2016lows of | 266

• In backdrop of a robust long term price structure, the past three month’sdecline provides a fresh entry opportunity in Tata Motors a proxy to ride

430

429decline provides a fresh entry opportunity in Tata Motors, a proxy to ridethe bullish trend in the auto space. The stock is currently poised at keysupport of | 400 as it is the confluence of following parameters:

- lower band of the rising channel that encompasses the entire rallysince February 2016

- 50% retracement of 2016 rally (266-598)

52 Weeks EMA

266

- Equality with last down leg (430-266) placed at 434

• Going forward, we expect the stock to embark upon a sustainable upmove post a basing formation and project a price target of | 565 being80% retracement of most recent decline (| 598-429)

Call has been initiated on i-Click to Gain on December 13, 2016 at 15:12 hrs

Weekly Stochastic has generated a positive crossover near oversold zone

Strong volume at support level signals accumulation pattern

Weekly Stochastic has generated a positive crossover near oversold zone

Market Capitalisation | 151745 crore Equity capital | 679 croreFace value 2 52 weeks H/L 599 / 266

Source: BSE, Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Click here to go to top

Face value 2 52 weeks H/L 599 / 266200/50 days EMA 472 / 486 52 weeks EMA 466.4

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Bharat Forge (BHAFOR): Falling channel breakout augurs well....

CMP: |913 00 Buying range: | 940 00 985 00 Target: | 1195 00 Stop loss: | 818 00 Upside: 24 %

• The share price of Bharat Forge from the auto ancillary space is seenemerging out of 20 months corrective pattern within the larger degreeuptrend. We believe that after the recent corrective decline and a basingformation at the value area, the stock is attractively poised and offers afresh entry opportunity for long term investors to ride the next up move

CMP: |913.00 Buying range: | 940.00-985.00 Target: | 1195.00 Stop loss: | 818.00 Upside: 24 %

The breakout from the falling channelsuggests end of secondary correction andsignals resumption of primary uptrend

1339

Monthly Bar Chart

80% retracement @ 1195y pp y g p

• After a stupendous rally of more than 7x in August 2013–April 2015(| 181-1339) the share price entered an intermediate corrective phasesince April 2015. The entire 20 months corrective decline occurred in awell defined falling channel. The stock has recently registered a resolutebreakout above the upper band of the falling channel after a steadyaccumulation pattern around | 700, signalling end of the secondarycorrection and start of a fresh up leg

@ 1195

682correction and start of a fresh up leg

• The corrective decline since the life-time high of | 1339 in April 2015helped the stock to work off the highly overbought conditions developedafter the stupendous rally off 2014-15. The corrective decline gotanchored around the 50 months EMA around | 720 as can be seen in theadjacent chart. The steady base formation for more than three months atthe long term average indicates accumulation by stronger hands at the 181

Base formation above 50 monthsEMA highlights accumulation bystronger hands

682

major value area

• Time wise, the last rising segment during August 2013–April 2015panned out over 20 months whereas the 21 month corrective phasefrom April 2015 to till date could retrace less than 61.8% of the precedingrally price wise. Elongated time-wise correction and limited price damageis the primary trait of a strong bull market

F ll i h b lli h i b k b h f lli h lMonthly RSI has recently generated a buy signalthus supports the continuation of the uptrend• Following the bullish price breakout above the falling channel, we expect

the stock to enter a sustainable uptrend and head towards | 1195 overthe coming year, being the 80% retracement of the entire decline from| 1339 to | 682, thus offering a favourable reward-risk equation forinvestment in the coming year


thus supports the continuation of the uptrend


Source: BSE, Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

ce ue 5 ee s / 009 / 68200/50 days EMA 869 / 906 52 weeks EMA 866.5

15

ABB India (ABB): Corrective phase approaches maturity …

CMP: | 1030 00 Buying range: |1030 990 Target: | 1295 00 Stop loss: | 858 00 Upside: 28 %

• The share price of ABB is currently placed at a major value area. Theprolonged corrective decline of the last 22 months has the underpinningcharacteristics of a secondary correction within the larger uptrend. Webelieve the stock is likely to form a base around the major support area of| 970 1000 and resume its primary uptrend thus providing a good

CMP: | 1030.00 Buying range: |1030-990 Target: | 1295.00 Stop loss: | 858.00 Upside: 28 %

Monthly Bar Chart

1514

1422| 970-1000 and resume its primary uptrend, thus providing a goodinvestment opportunity for long term investors

• The important observation on the price chart of ABB is that the previousmajor peak of 2010 (| 954) and 2012 (| 1014) has reversed its role andacted as support during August 2014, January 2016 and now again inNovember 2016 highlighting the change of polarity principle, whichstates that a significant resistance once taken out, reverses its role and

80% @ 1325

950

acts as support for future price action

• During the entire 22 months correction, the share price has formed abase around | 950-1000 levels being the 50% Fibonacci retracement ofthe entire 2013-15 rally from | 427 to | 1514 placed at | 975 levels, whichalso coincides with the rising 50 months EMA as can be seen in theadjacent chart 427

Base formation at 50%retracement of the previousrally and 50 months EMA

• Time wise, the last rising segment in 2013-15 panned out over 18 monthswhereas the 22 month corrective phase from March 2015 to till datecould retrace just 50% of the preceding rally price wise. Elongated time-wise correction and limited price damage is the primary trait of apositive price structure

• We believe the stock has concluded a healthy corrective phase within theestablished uptrend and offers a good investment opportunity with a

14-period RSI is placed at a crucial trendline support

p g pp yfavourable risk/reward set-up as it is poised to embark upon its next legof rally in the coming year. We expect the stock to resolve higher andretrace 80% of the last major decline from | 1422 to | 932 placed around| 1325 levels which also coincides with July 2016 swing high of |1324



ce ue 5 ee s / 3 / 93200/50 days EMA 1153 / 1082 52 weeks EMA 1157.5

16

Idea Cellular (IDECEL): Poised at long term value area…

CMP: | 72 00 Buying range: |70 00 76 00 Target: | 96 00 Stop loss: | 61 00 Upside: 32%

• The telecom space stayed out of the limelight throughout 2016 while Ideain particular has taken a severe beating as the share price approached along term value area warranting a relook at long term charts

• After a strong rally during March 2009 – April 2015, (| 41-201), the stock

CMP: | 72.00 Buying range: |70.00-76.00 Target: | 96.00 Stop loss: | 61.00 Upside: 32%

154

Monthly Bar Chart 201

g y g p ( )entered a corrective phase. The sharp velocity of the decline got arrestednear | 70-65 region, which is a major value area. During the last threemonths, the stock has consolidated near the long term support area,which is indicative of selling pressure getting absorbed at the major valuearea. The confluence of following technical parameters convergingaround | 70-65 region makes this a solid base for the stock:

The current decline equals 2008 fall in magnitude around | 70

50%retracement@ 96

154

The current decline equals 2008 fall in magnitude around | 70

The 80% retracement of the entire 2009 -15 rally from | 41 to| 201 is also placed at | 71 levels

The consolidation base of the year 2012 is also placed around| 65-68 region as can be seen in the adjacent chart

• Among oscillators, the 14 month RSI has plunged to a reading of 28 33

Confluence of major supportaround | 70-65 levels

66

which is a record low. The displacement of momentum oscillators at adeep oversold readings suggests that a pullback may be on the cards,going forward in the coming year

• The stock has been consolidating around the major support area in thelast three months, thus providing a favourable risk/reward set-up from amedium-term perspective. We expect the share price to witness apullback from hereon and at least retrace the last leg of decline (| 126-66)

Monthly RSI at deep oversold territoryp g ( )by 50% which is placed around | 96 levels




ce ue 0 5 ee s / 5 / 66200/50 days EMA 96 / 77 52 weeks EMA 99.4

17

NCC (NAGCON): Consolidation phase approaches maturity.....

CMP: | 79 00 Buying range: |80 00 86 00 Target: | 112 00 Stop loss: | 67 00 Upside: 35 %

• The corrective consolidation in the broad range of | 60- 90 of the last twoyears is approaching maturity as the stock is emerging out of its steadybase formation to mark an end of the secondary corrective phase andresumption of the prior up trend

CMP: | 79.00 Buying range: |80.00-86.00 Target: | 112.00 Stop loss: | 67.00 Upside: 35 %

The two years consolidation is approaching maturity asthe stock is rebounding from a major support levelindicating resumption of the prior up trend

Monthly Bar Chart

• After the strong multi-fold rally during February 2014 – April 2015, (| 13-116), the stock entered a sideways corrective phase. The selling pressuregot absorbed precisely near key support around | 60. The stock formedmultiple bottoms around the | 55-60 region, which highlightsaccumulation at the major value area being the confluence of followingtechnical parameters:

Th 6 8% f F b 20 A il 20 ll

116 Price parity @ 112106

The 61.8% retracement of February 2014- April 2015 rally(| 13-116) is placed at | 56 levelsThe 50-months long term moving average, which is in arising trajectory is placed around | 60 levelsThe long term rising trendline support joining major lowssince February 2014 was also placed near | 60 levels. Thevalue of this base line has now shifted to | 73 levels and is 13

Consolidation above the 50Months EMA and long termrising trendline

likely to act as major support in the coming year

• Time wise, the last rising segment during 2014-15 panned out over 14months whereas the 21 month corrective phase from April 2015 till datecould retrace just 61.8% of the preceding rally price wise. Elongated timewise correction and limited price damage is the primary trait of a positiveprice structure in the stockprice structure in the stock

• We expect the share price to resolve higher from hereon and headtowards | 112 levels in the medium term being the price parity with theprevious up move from | 54 to | 95 as projected from the recent troughof | 71. It also coincides with the high of March 2015

Call has been initiated on i-Click to Gain on December 13, 2016 at 09:35 hrsMarket Capitalisation | 4592 crore Equity capital | 111 croreFace value 2 52 weeks H/L 96 / 56


/ /200/50 days EMA 80 / 82 52 weeks EMA 78.9

18

Zee Media (ZEEMED): Entering new bull phase.…

CMP: | 37 00 Buying range: | 35 00 39 00 Target: | 54 00 Stop loss: | 31 00 Upside: 46 %

• The strong upsurge in 2016 has signalled a long term reversal of fortunesfor the share price of Zee Media. The stock registered a resolute breakoutabove the major six year long rising trend line resistance drawn off theprevious major highs of September 2010 (| 17.50), November 2014 (|

CMP: | 37.00 Buying range: | 35.00-39.00 Target: | 54.00 Stop loss: | 31.00 Upside: 46 %

Breakout past the multi-year trend lineindicates a major shift of momentum in

Monthly Bar Chart Price parity with previousup move @ 54

24.00) and November 2015 (| 26.70). The breakout above a rising trendline signals a major shift of momentum in favour of bulls

• The long term trend line breakout area around | 31 levels is likely toreverse its role and act as major support in the coming year as per theChange of Polarity concept

• Structurally, the breakout rally since May 2015 saw the stock post a fasterf i l d l i d fi h f ll f

favour of the bulls

26.724.0

40.7

31.0retracement of its last down leg as it recouped a five months fall fromDecember 2015 to April 2016 in just two months. Faster retracement ofthe last falling segment and the resulting breakout past multi-year trendline has larger bullish implication for the stock, going forward

• The behaviour of volumes is testament to the changing dynamics of thelong term price trend. The entire rally since June 2016 has garneredstrong investor participation as average monthly volumes since July

17.5

Sharp surge in volumes in the current rally signalsstrong investor appetite for the stock

17.7

g p p g y y2016 (4.8 crore shares) have been almost double its 24 month averagevolume of 2.8 lakh shares. Expanding volumes in the direction of priceaction signal strength in the underlying trend and augur well for longevityof the up move

• We expect the stock to ride the new found momentum into 2017 as welland remain on course towards target of | 54 being the price equality withthe April to November 2016 rally (|17 70 to |40 70) as measured from the

Monthly MACD in uptrend forming higher high thussupports the positive bias in price

g pp

the April to November 2016 rally (|17.70 to |40.70) as measured from therecent closing low of | 31.00 levels

• Monthly MACD in uptrend forming higher high and recent reboundtaking support at its nine period average, thus supports uptrend in price

Call has been initiated on i-Click to Gain on December 13, 2016 at 14:50 hrs Market Capitalisation | 1909 crore Equity capital | 47 croreFace value 1 52 weeks H/L 42 / 17


ce ue 5 ee s / /200/50 days EMA 28 / 35 52 weeks EMA 26.9

19

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ADIFAS) : Base formation at major value area....

CMP: | 131 00 Buying range: |133 00 140 00 Target: | 170 00 Stop loss: | 118 00 Upside: 25 %

• Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ABFRL) is one of the largest organisedbranded apparel players in India. The share price of ABFRL has been in acorrective mode since hitting a life-time high of | 263 in January 2016.After the initial price correction, the stock has been witnessing a steadybase formation over the past 10 months above its key value area of

CMP: | 131.00 Buying range: |133.00-140.00 Target: | 170.00 Stop loss: | 118.00 Upside: 25 %

The stock is attractively placed abovemajor value area and likely to test thehigher band of the consolidation range

Weekly Bar Chart 263

p y| 125-130 as it is the confluence of the following technical parameters:

The value of long term rising trend line marking the majortroughs of 2013 and 2014 then placed around | 125-130 region

The 80% retracement of the last major rising segment from| 107 to | 263 is placed near | 130 levels

The major bullish gap area of April 2015 is placed around | 116

higher band of the consolidation rangein the coming year

Higher band of theconsolidation around | 170

The major bullish gap area of April 2015 is placed around | 116-129 region makes it a value area for long term prospective

• Structurally, the stock has already taken 12 months to retrace just 80% ofits preceding nine months rally from | 107 to | 263. Elongated timecorrection and limited price correction form the key feature of a positiveprice structure from a long term perspective

• The entire base formation over the last 10 months has witnessed strong

107

Consolidation for the last ten months at the long termtrendline support and 80% retracement of the lastmajor rising segment75

123

• The entire base formation over the last 10 months has witnessed strongaccumulation as weekly volumes have consistently been more thandouble the 52 week average volume of 30 lakh shares per week. Strongvolumes accompanying price consolidation at the major value areahighlight accumulation by stronger hands ahead of the impendingreversal

• Based on the aforementioned technical observations, we believe thek i i l i d b i k l d id d

Strong volume during the consolidation phaseindicates accumulation by stronger hands

major rising segment75

stock is attractively poised above its key value area and provides a goodentry opportunity for long term players to ride the up move towards theupper band of the ten months consolidation placed around | 170 levelsover the coming year

Call has been initiated on i-Click to Gain on December 15, 2016 at 14:32 hrs Market Capitalisation | 10696 crore Equity capital | 769 croreFace value 10 52 weeks H/L 263 / 123


/ /200/50 days EMA 153 / 143 52 weeks EMA 153.0

20

Nifty 50: Sectoral representation on our Statistical model...

6Automobile

6

3

4

1

6

1

Energy

Consumer goods

Cement

Capital goods

Automobile

2

1

3

8

6

1

1

Metals

Media

IT

Financial services

Energy

2

3

2

2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Telecom

Pharma

Metals

No. of StocksPositive Negative

Above exhibit explains the sector wise stack up of Nifty 50 constituents based onprofiling of each stock on our statistical model through the bottom up thesis

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research All Sectoral charts in following slides are priced as at December 8, 2016

21


Sectoral prognosis, from relative strength perspective

BSE Auto: Structural outperformance to continue BSE Auto Index Monthly Bar ChartBSE Auto: Structural outperformance to continue BSE Auto Index Monthly Bar Chart

The Auto Index registered a strong rally in the first three quarters of 2016.However, profit booking in the last quarter of 2016 saw the index retreatfrom its life-time highs and the upper band of long term rising channel.

Th l i i fi l b lli h i i

Auto index is in a structural uptrend moving in arising channel and is likely to resolve higher formingbase at the lower band of the channel

23210

20386

The longer term price structure remains firmly bullish as prices continue toform rising peaks and troughs suggesting persistent demand for autostocks.

Going forward, we expect the auto index to enter a consolidation phase inthe initial part of upcoming year that will act as a base for a furthernorthward journey. We expect the index to respect the lower band of its

10537

9710

15385

o t a d jou ey e e pect t e de to espect t e o e ba d o tslong term rising channel and eventually resolve higher to challenge its life-time high of 23200 in the coming year.

BSE Auto vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

h lThe trajectory of Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator on thelong term charts exhibits a structural trend of relative outperformance vis-à-vis the benchmarks. The long term rising trendline on RSC line drawn offthe 2009 troughs continues to provide cushion during intermediatecorrective phases. The RSC line approaching this long term trend supporthas produced major buying opportunities over the last many years.

RSC remains in a rising trajectory on the long termcharts signaling a consistent outperforming streakvis-à-vis the benchmarks

We believe the current breather on the price front and RSC lineapproaching its long term trendline will create attractive buyingopportunities in this sector in the coming year as the larger degree relativeoutperformance streak remains intact.


22


Nifty Bank: To chug along with markets Nifty Bank Index Quarterly Bar ChartNifty Bank: To chug along with markets Nifty Bank Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The sharp upsurge in 2016 from its February lows in benchmark indiceswas spearheaded by the banking space, especially private banking stocks.Nifty Bank retraced its 2015 decline almost fully before entering thecorrective phase in the last quarter.

Structurally the 2013 14 rally which took 17 months was retraced by less 13408

20907The Bank Nifty is likely to resolve higher in the coming yearafter the recent higher base building process in the last twoyears

Structurally, the 2013-14 rally, which took 17 months, was retraced by lessthan 61.8% over past two years. Limited price correction and larger timewise correction confirms the larger degree positive structure for the NiftyBank index. The entire two year consolidation seems to be a higher basebuilding exercise similar to one in 2011-13.

We believe the index is nearing maturity of its consolidation phase andld hi h i th i i it i t d

8367

13408

would emerge higher in the coming year resuming its primary uptrend.PSU banking stocks, which have been in consolidation since 2010, is thespace to watch for relative outperformance.

Nifty Bank vs. Nifty Relative Strength Comparison

3315

The long term trajectory of the RSC indicator is positive as depicted by achannelled up move on the larger time frame charts. After a two yearphase of strong outperformance vis-à-vis the benchmarks in 2013-14, theRSC line has turned sideways in the last two years and oscillated in anarrow band suggesting a consolidation phase.

Considering the long term positive trajectory of the RSC the sidewaysConsidering the long term positive trajectory of the RSC, the sidewaysmovement in the last two years represents a breather within anestablished uptrend. A breakout in the RSC line above the last two yearconsolidation will herald a new phase of steady outperformance vis-à-visthe benchmarks in the coming year.

RSC indicator consolidating in the last two years indicatingin line performance with the benchmark indices


23


BSE Capital Goods: Ripe for a pullback rally BSE Capital Goods Index Quarterly Bar ChartBSE Capital Goods: Ripe for a pullback rally BSE Capital Goods Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The Capital Goods index remained a relative underperformer in 2016 asthe managed to retrace just 61.8% of its 2015 fall while the benchmarkindex retraced almost 93% of corresponding 2015 down move.

The price action since August 2016 reveals an encouraging development.Ti i h i d h l d fi h d i h

21021

1686018814

10934Time wise the index has completed five months under corrective phasewhile price wise it has retraced its preceding five month rise (10934 to15835) by just 50%. Larger time wise correction and limited price wisecorrection is a positive sign indicating waning downward momentumahead of impending reversal.

The placement of index near rising demand line drawn off 2013 and 2016

53946719

Capital Goods index is likely to continue with its currentconsolidation and only a decisive close above previousyear high (15835) will signal a structural turnaround

10934

p gbottoms and time wise maturity of the current corrective phase providesthe platform for a snapback rally in 2017 towards the overhead trendlineconnecting 2010 and 2015 peaks

BSE Capital Goods vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

RSC line is consolidating in a range and only aOn the long term charts, the RSC indicator is in a downward trendforming lower highs. After forming a Double top towards end of 2015, andthe ensuing decline in 2016, the RSC line is moving in sideways directionimplying continuance of range bound price movement and an in lineperformance with the benchmarks in the medium term.

A structural shift of relative trend and resumption of positive momentum

RSC line is consolidating in a range and only adecisive move above the trendline resistancewill signal reversal of trend

A structural shift of relative trend and resumption of positive momentumwill occur once the RSC line posts a decisive breakout above its fallingtrend line in force since 2007. Until then, we expect the sector to remainout of the limelight and witness stock specific action, going forward.


24


NSE FMCG: Buying opportunity as risk/reward turns favourable NSE FMCG Index Quarterly Bar ChartNSE FMCG: Buying opportunity as risk/reward turns favourable NSE FMCG Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The FMCG index extended its time wise consolidation that has been underway since 2015 as profit bookings at the upper band of the broader range(23000 to 18500) capped upsides in 2016. Structurally, the sidewaysconsolidation over the last two years was preceded by the multi-year bullrun between 2009 and 2015. It implies a healthy time wise correctionwithin a structural uptrend.

23219

18732p

The long term price structure for the FMCG index remains positive. Thesector has moved out of the limelight owing to the extended range boundconsolidation in the last two years. We believe this presents a good buyingopportunity in the sector as it is attractively poised near the long termrising trendline in place since 2011 thereby offering a favourablerisk/reward from a long term perspective

Index continue to consolidate in the last two yearsforming base around 19000 levels

risk/reward from a long term perspective.

After the initial slump in 2014 RSC line is seen moving in a tight range

NSE FMCG vs. Nifty Relative Strength Comparison

After the initial slump in 2014, RSC line is seen moving in a tight rangealong with broader consolidation on price front. Interestingly the slope ofRSC line over the last two years has been in a rising trajectory by forminghigher high higher low in a narrow up trending channel that exhibitsinherent strength in the underlying trend and quantifies the breather onprice front as a healthy secondary correction within the structural uptrend.

The positioning of RSC line near lower band of the rising channel andprices approaching the long term rising trendline will create opportunitiesin this sector in the coming year. The sector will resume its leadership roleonce the RSC line registers a decisive breakout above the upper band ofthe narrow rising channel.

RSC line is moving in a narrow raising channelindicating consolidation in the last two years


25


NSE IT: Fallen heroes present buying opportunity… NSE IT Index Quarterly Bar ChartNSE IT: Fallen heroes present buying opportunity… NSE IT Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The ongoing corrective trend in the IT index over the last two yearsappears to be nearing maturity. The entire correction off 2015 peak hasoccurred in a downward sloping channel. A channelled correctionpreceded by a strong up move between 2013-15, represents a secondarycorrective phase within the established uptrend. The trough formed in lastquarter of 2016 (9296) is placed at lower band of the corrective trend

IT index is poised above its long term rising baseline after completing two years corrective phaseagainst preceding two year bull run

12908

9296quarter of 2016 (9296) is placed at lower band of the corrective trendchannel and it also coincides with the long term rising base line drawn offthe major bottoms of 2009 and 2013.

Time wise, the stock has completed two year under corrective mode whileretracing just 50% of its preceding two year bull-run. Limited price wisecorrection and elongated time wise correction upholds the overall bullish

i Th f b li h i h h

1993

5461

price structure. Therefore, we believe the corrective phase hasapproached maturity and the IT sector presents good buying opportunityas it is expected to resume its primary uptrend over the coming year

NSE IT vs. Nifty Relative Strength Comparison

d l d h b h h llThe RSC line is trudging sideways since late 2014 inline with the correctivetrend on price front leading to relative underperformance vis-à-vis thebenchmarks. After the sizable correction in 2016, the RSC line is seenapproaching its major support area being the lower band of the last threeyears and the previous major overhead trendline in force since 2003, thatwill reverse its role and act as support as per Change of Polarity which iscurrently placed around 1.1 levels

RSC indicator is placed near the major support sustaining above which willlead to an outperformance vis-à-vis the benchmarks in the coming year

y p

We believe the RSC indicator approaching lower band of multi-yearconsolidation and price wise positioning of the IT index at major long termtrend line should trigger a rebound in the coming year


26


BSE Metal: Poised at an inflection point BSE Metal Index Quarterly Bar ChartBSE Metal: Poised at an inflection point BSE Metal Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The Metal index emerged as top sectoral performer in 2016, helped byfirm metal prices in 2016. After bottoming formation in Q12016, whatfollowed was a spirited rally for the rest of the year as all major sectoralconstituents rallied to fresh two-year highs.

The Metal index is likely to continue with itscurrent outperformance in 2017 and headtowards the 2014 highs

2049418736

14102

The Metal index is currently poised at the cusp of the long term downwardsloping trendline joining the yearly highs of 2010 and 2014. Aconsolidation near this trend line would augur well for a structuralturnaround.

We believe the metal index is likely to continue its current outperformance 3807

6170

y pin 2017 as the breakout above the falling trendline will signal an up movetowards the 2014 highs placed at 14100 levels .

BSE Metal vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

The metal sector has been one of the major outperformers during 2016after relative underperformance since 2010, which is clearly highlighted bythe RSC indicator.

The RSC line has registered a major downward sloping channel breakoutduring 2016 indicating a reversal of the major downtrend

RSC line has witness a major reversal of trendand is likely to continue with its currentoutperformance vis-à-vis benchmark indices

The higher bottom formation over the next couple of quarters wouldprove to be a shot in the arm for an extended outperformance into 2017

.


27


NSE Midcap: Structural outperformance intact NSE Midcap Index Quarterly Bar ChartNSE Midcap: Structural outperformance intact NSE Midcap Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The midcap index is one of the major outperformer since 2013. Moreprominently while benchmarks remained in a corrective mode sinceMarch 2015, midcap index continued its up trend and, thus, outperformed.

The midcap space remained buzzing for most of the year before paringsome gains to profit booking in last quarter of 2016 We believe the

14237

The Mid cap index remains in a well defined uptrend bound by a channel

some gains to profit booking in last quarter of 2016. We believe thecurrent breather will help the index to work off the overbought conditionsand create fresh buying opportunities.

In the larger scheme of things, the current breather is seen as a part ofongoing bull trend. We expect the previous breakout area and lower bandof medium term rising channel placed around 14000 to anchor the

ti hi h ill t l h d f th t i th

9781 9853

6331

11190

correction, which will act as a launch pad for the next up move in thecoming year.

NSE Midcap vs. Nifty Relative Strength Comparison

2931

The strong outperformance of the midcap space has been the talking pointover the past two years . In terms of comparability with previous bull runsin 2009-10 and then in 2012, the RSC line broke past the value of 1.6 forthe first time and continues to trend higher.

The strength in the RSC line since breaking out of the 10 year

RSC remains in a rising trajectory since breaking outof the 10 year consolidation pattern and is likely tocontinue with its current outperformance

consolidation band implies a larger structural turnaround and signalscontinuation of the uptrend in the midcap index in the coming year.


28


BSE Oil & Gas: Gaining traction after prolonged consolidation BSE Oil & Gas Index Monthly Bar ChartBSE Oil & Gas: Gaining traction after prolonged consolidation BSE Oil & Gas Index Monthly Bar Chart

The oil & gas sector was one of the prominent gainers in 2016 asdownstream oil & gas marketing companies outperformed throughout theyear while a late surge in oil prices lifted the upstream heavyweights totheir 52-week highs in second half of 2016

14268

1127012132

Structurally, the index has retraced its two year decline from 12132 to7988 in just six months. The faster retracement of the last major fallingsegment is the first sign of a turnaround in price structure. Currently theindex is seen taking a breather near key horizontal trend line drawn off2009 peaks. A faster retracement of the last major falling segment

signals continuation of the outperformance in 2017

4570

73387988

Going forward, we believe the consolidation near the key trend line hurdlewould result in a higher bottom formation followed by the next mediumterm up leg

BSE Oil & Gas vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

Bullish rounding pattern breakout in the RSC line indicates aThe relative ratio line against the Sensex has registered its first higherpeak since 2008 indicating a potential major revival in a sector, which hasbeen laggard since 2008 cycle top.

While a short-term corrective phase may result in a relativeunderperformance during the initial period of 2017, the structural shift inprice and a major reversal signal on relative ratio line pose a bullish

Bullish rounding pattern breakout in the RSC line indicates areversal of trend and is likely to continue with its currentoutperformance vis-à-vis benchmark indices

price and a major reversal signal on relative ratio line pose a bullishoutlook for the sector, going forward.


29


NSE Pharma: Time wise correction to continue NSE Pharma Index Monthly Bar ChartNSE Pharma: Time wise correction to continue NSE Pharma Index Monthly Bar Chart

Pharma index extended its corrective phase in 2016 after topping out inearly 2015. The entire decline since 2015 is enclosed within a well definedfalling channel and forms part of the secondary correction within the longterm bullish structure.

14020

Over the past two years corrective phase the index has retraced its 2011-15 rally by 50% while taking 60% time taken by the rally. We believe thecurrent corrective phase is yet to achieve time wise maturity, therefore forthe coming year the Pharma space will be more of a stock specific playwhile the index will extend the broader sideways consolidation

The index is in corrective trend in the last twoyears and is likely to continue with its currentconsolidation with stock specific action

7358

9778

NSE Pharma vs. Nifty Relative Strength Comparison

The corrective decline in the pharma sector in 2015-16 and relativeunderperformance has seen the RSC line approach its long term base linejoining the lows since 2009.

Positioning of the RSC indicator at a major support provides the platformfor a gradual pullback rally, going forward. However, a pullback towardsthe recent breakdown area of 1 5 is likely to face a major resistance in thethe recent breakdown area of 1.5 is likely to face a major resistance in thecoming year.

Based on the observations on RSC indicator, we believe the Pharma indexis poised at an attractive juncture and provides a better entry opportunity.

RSC indicator is placed at a major trendline supportjoining the lows since 2009 thus provides the platformfor a gradual pullback rally going forward


30


BSE Power: Early signs of a structural revival… BSE Power Index Quarterly Bar ChartBSE Power: Early signs of a structural revival… BSE Power Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The BSE power index has eked out marginal gains on a YTD basis in 2016similar to the benchmark Sensex gaining a tag of market performer.

From a structural perspective, key observation is that index has emergedabove the long term downward sloping trend line and formed a higherbottom at 2016 lows The Power index has been a major laggard ever

3393

2408

Breakout past major falling trend line in place since2008 augurs well for the Power index going forward

bottom at 2016 lows. The Power index has been a major laggard eversince its inception and has remained out of limelight over the last eightyears. However, the recent developments on the price front suggest thatthe sector is finally set to emerge out of its major down trend and presentsgood investment opportunity from long term perspective with afavourable risk/reward setup.

1274

1559

2408

1315

BSE Power vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

The prolonged underperformance on price front since 2008 has seen theRelative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator remain in a falling trajectoryon the long term scale. However over the last four years the RSC line hasentered into a major basing formation phase which is a sign that majornegatives surrounding the sector are getting priced in.

We believe the breakout on price front followed by the RSC line entering

RSC indicator has witnessed major basing formation over the lastfour years and is at the cusp of entering into rising trajectory

We believe the breakout on price front followed by the RSC line enteringinto a rising trajectory after four year base formation will create the perfectset-up for the Power sector to play catch up with broader indices andemerge back into lime light over the coming year


31


BSE PSU: At the cusp of a structural turnaround BSE PSU Index Quarterly Bar ChartBSE PSU: At the cusp of a structural turnaround BSE PSU Index Quarterly Bar ChartThe entire price action since 2008 till date has occurred in a well definedcontracting symmetrical triangle pattern as highlighted in the adjoininglong term price chart.

After a prolonged period of underperformance, the BSE PSU index is atthe cusp of breaking out of the long term consolidation pattern A resolute

The PSU index is at the cusp of breaking out of thelong term symmetrical triangular pattern indicatespositive bias in the coming year

1120510708

9091

the cusp of breaking out of the long term consolidation pattern. A resolutebreakout above the symmetrical triangle pattern will signal continuation ofthe strong uptrend in the coming year.

A more deeper analysis of the key index constituents also paints a bullishpicture and makes the PSU space a key candidate for investment in 2017. 3854

47755413

BSE PSU vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

RSC line has witness a major reversal of trend and isAfter constant underperformance against Sensex since 2009, the ratio linehas emerged out of a falling channel for the first time in 2016.

A long term downward sloping channel breakout after seven years ofunderperformance implies a larger structural turnaround. This providesimpetus for the PSU index to continue its outperforming streak over thecoming years This will be the space to watch in the coming year

RSC line has witness a major reversal of trend and islikely to continue with its current outperformancevis-à-vis benchmark indices

coming years. This will be the space to watch in the coming year.


32


BSE Realty: Time correction nearing maturity BSE Realty Index Quarterly Bar ChartBSE Realty: Time correction nearing maturity BSE Realty Index Quarterly Bar Chart

The sector has been an underperformer on three and six month returnbasis while YTD, the real estate index has largely remained unchanged.

The longer term price structure for the index paints a bearish tone asprices continue to trend down in a sequential lower high-lower lowformation since its major peak of 2008 just after inception of the index

4846

formation since its major peak of 2008, just after inception of the index.The key observation, however, is that falls since 2014 are of lowermagnitude now, an early sign of exhaustion in downward pressure and acase for base formation after an elongated period of underperformance.

A look at index constituents reveals that some of the names like OberoiRealty, Godrej Properties have even managed to hit fresh highs. While at d i i t t i till t id t t th t t

1298

2272

1000turnaround in price structure is still not evident, we expect the sector toindulge in a basing formation over the next few quarters and emergehigher after remaining out of favour for nearly nine years

BSE Realty vs. Sensex Relative Strength Comparison

RSC indicator is seen under basing formation afterThe Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator is seen flattening outafter a prolonged period of down trend.

While there is no sign of a turnaround on a relative basis, the relative ratioline has emerged above its down trend line ahead of prices. Goingforward, a higher high-low formation on RSC line would be a signal towatch as an early sign of turnaround

RSC indicator is seen under basing formation afteremerging above long term downtrend line

watch as an early sign of turnaround.


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NSE Small Cap: Cool off to create buying opportunities NSE Small Cap Index Monthly Bar ChartNSE Small Cap: Cool off to create buying opportunities NSE Small Cap Index Monthly Bar Chart

The small cap space was subject to strong profit booking in November2016, after eight months of rally since February 2016 lows.

The longer term price structure for the small cap index remains robust, asit witnessed a faster retracement of the 2015-16 corrective phase in lessthan 50% of the time

6112

6544

than 50% of the time.

However, the recent correction since November 2016 seems incompleteand may see a dip. The index has a strong support at ~5000 levels as it isthe confluence of the rising trendline support joining the lows of 2013 andFebruary 2016 and the lower band of the 2014-15 consolidation as can beseen in the adjacent chart. We expect the index to consolidate near the

t l l d it t d i th i

Breakdown below eight monthrange and violation of 12 monthEMA signals a pause in the longterm uptrend

4206

The Small cap index has a strongsupport at around 5000 levels

support levels and resume its uptrend in the coming year.

NSE Small Cap vs. Nifty Relative Strength Comparison

RSC indicator registered a resolute breakout above

2509

The Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator emerged above its2010 peak forming higher high-low formation in a process, a first since2008 cycle top.

The relative outperformance as displaced by rising peak and trough byratio line indicate secular up trend in broader markets and augurs well forthe continuation of a bull market

RSC indicator registered a resolute breakout abovethe major trendline resistance joining the multiplehighs signalling positive bias

the continuation of a bull market.

While the short-term aberration may not be ruled out, we expect the smallcap space to continue its outperforming streak going into 2017 as well


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• The US dollar continued its rising trajectory and formed a higher high

US$INR (67.88): Dollar to strengthen towards 72...

US$-INR spot monthly bar chart (Inverted)The US dollar continued its rising trajectory and formed a higher highhigher low on yearly charts. The US dollar strengthened against a basket ofmajor currencies following surprise victory of Republican candidate DonaldTrump in the US Presidential elections and first rate hike by US FederalReserve in 2016 with a more hawkish stance for 2017 propelled the USdollar index to fourteen year highs. Further consistent outflows by foreigninvestors in domestic bond markets and redemption of long dated foreigncurrency deposits maintained the pressure on Rupee throughout 2016

68.845

30% move & Faster retracement

US$-INR spot monthly bar chart (Inverted)68.861

2016 lows

y p p p g

• The rupee hit a fresh life low (68.86) against US dollar in November 2016ahead of the rate hike by the US Federal Reserve before ending the year offlows. The year 2016 saw the USDINR pair oscillate in a tight range between66 and 68.80 levels even as the rupee continued its losing streak for sixthyear in a row

58.33530% move &

Faster retracement

57.327

• Although the rally off 2014 trough of 58.33 continues to be slowest in pacecompared to 2008-09 and 2013, the larger uptrend for US dollar remains intact with immediate hurdle around | 69

• The structural uptrend in US dollar favours that US dollar would maintain itsupward bias in 2017 and resolve above 68.8 (2013 and 2016 high) and

52.180

p ( g )eventually head towards 72. (2016 high-low range 68.80-66=2.80 projectedabove the life high of | 68.80)

• Yearly low of 2016 placed at | 66 remains a key long term support for USdollar, going forward. Only a decisive breach below 66 would tarnish longterm upward bias for the Greenback

44.026

30% move &

39.173

Faster retracement


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• Gold prices have been through a roller coaster ride in CY2016 The steady

Gold ($1131): Bullion to extend its time correction, upsides capped at $1300...

Gold Yearly Candlestick ChartGold prices have been through a roller coaster ride in CY2016. The steadygains witnessed in first half of the year have almost been surrendered amidstrong selling pressure over the last five months as major events like Brexit,US presidential elections and the US Fed rate hike have weighed on thesentiments.

• The yearly price action resembles an Inverted Hammer pattern with a smallbull candle and long upper shadow It highlights demand emerging near the

Gold Yearly Candlestick Chart

1921Gold prices are set to extend time wisecorrection and oscillate between broad range of$1050 to $1300 levels in the coming year

1377bull candle and long upper shadow. It highlights demand emerging near thelower band of the long term rising channel (in blue) while the long uppershadow reflects the weak nature of bounce as prices reversed from the38.2% retracement of the entire decline from 2011 peak of $1921 to 2015bottom of $1046 levels

• Going forward, we expect gold prices to enter a time wise consolidation$

1377

1046

phase and the upsides look capped around $1300 region, as it is the higherband of the falling trend channel (in maroon), which encompass entiredecline since 2011 peak. The series of lower higher and lower lows in afalling channel since 2011 highlight that the medium term trend remainsweak

• On the downside, key support for bullion is placed around $1050 region asy pp p git is confluence of following technical factors:

The value of lower band of long term rising channel (in blue) is placed at $1090 levelsThe identical yearly lows of 2015 and 2016 are placed at $ 1050

• We believe gold prices will extend the sideways consolidation and oscillateb h b d f $1050 $1300 l l hil i i

418

between the broader range of $1050-$1300 levels while time correctionwould extend in 2017

252


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• Brent crude prices surged to their highest levels in over 18 months and are

Brent ($54.30): Trading range shifts to $47-$63 band in 2017...

Brent Generic futures Monthly Bar chartBrent crude prices surged to their highest levels in over 18 months and areset to end CY2016 on an optimistic note after OPEC struck a deal with otheroil producing countries including Russia to cut output in order to restrict theglobal supply glut. After a sharp decline in 2014-15, oil prices made adecent rebound to end the year ~48% higher in 2016

• Brent prices posted a decent rally in first half of 2016 from a multi-year lowof $27 followed by a five month of consolidation in the range of $53 43

Brent Generic futures Monthly Bar chart147

115

of $27, followed by a five month of consolidation in the range of $53-43.The recent surge in Crude prices post Opec deal has resulted in a breakoutfrom five month consolidation pattern depicting positive sentiment. In theprocess the prices have formed the first higher bottom in three years as canbe seen on adjacent monthly charts

• While the recent higher bottom formation suggests upward shift in demand

70

Key Hurdle at $63:Breakdown level of July 2015 at $63.40

Breakout Target at $63

zone for Crude prices from medium term perspective, we believe the lackof faster retracement of the 2015 – 2016 decline ($70-$27) over past elevenmonths indicates that there is no structural turnaround in place yet.

• Considering above technical observations, we expect Brent crude prices toshift its trading range higher while maintaining the muted outlook goinginto 2017. The upside looks capped around $63 as it is the confluence of

43

53

p ppfollowing technical parameters:-Pattern implication from 5 month trading zone ($43-53) projected at $63-Breakdown level of July 2015 at $ 63.40

• Declines in oil prices are likely to be anchored ~$47 as it is confluence of- 61.8% retracement of past two month rally ($43-58)

36

27

Monthly MACD has generated a bullish crossover above its 9period average for first time since 2012 supporting the shift of prices to a higher range

- Value of rising trend line connecting January – November 2016 lows

• To sum up, Brent prices are expected to remain in a broader trading rangeof $47-63 amid lack of structural turnaround on long term charts

for first time since 2012 supporting the shift of prices to a higher range


37

Performance Scorecard

Rec. Date Stock Recommended Rec Price Target Stop loss % Profit/Loss Comment14-Dec-15 Triveni Engineering & Industries 36.00 48.00 27.00 42.0 Booked profit at 51.1014-Dec-15 Ramco Cements 358.00 448.00 309.00 40.0 Booked profit at 50114-Dec-15 Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers 233.00 298.00 192.00 17.0 Booked profit at 272.0015-Dec-15 SJVN 28.40 38.00 22.70 16.0 Booked profit at 32.80

Strategy 2016: Stock Performance

SJVN 28.40 38.00 22.70 16.0 p15-Dec-15 ITC 205.00 288.00 192.00 15.0 Booked 50% profit at 23611-Dec-15 Sonata Software 166.00 222.00 134.00 -9.0 Square off position at 151.7514-Dec-15 Ipca Laboratories 745.00 948.00 648.00 -15.0 Square off positions at 63014-Dec-15 Tata Motors 360.00 435.00 278.00 -23.0 Square off position at 27811-Dec-15 EIH Ltd. 120.00 159.00 99.00 -17.5 Stop loss triggered

Yearly Technical performance Since 2013

80%80 0

100.0

30

35

%)

Avg return on positive calls Avg. Strike Rate

23

27

33

2620.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

15

20

25

Strik

e Ra

te (%

)

urn

on P

ositi

ve C

alls

(%

0.010 2013

2014

2015

2016Avg.

Ret

u

Year

38


Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,ICICI Sec ities LimitedICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,Road No 7, MIDCAndheri (East)Mumbai – 400 093

h@i i idi [email protected]

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Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATIONANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed tothis report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) orsecurities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) orview(s) in this report.Terms & conditions and other disclosures:ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited(ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution offinancial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its varioussubsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management,etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India.We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by ourWe and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by ourInvestment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives frommaintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report andinformation contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICISecurities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update orkeep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicableregulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or incertain other circumstances .This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has beenmade nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be usedor considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments Thoughor considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Thoughdisseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treatrecipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or arepresentation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinionsexpressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investmentobjectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment byany recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of

40

y p p p y y ychanges in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason.

Disclaimer

ICICI S i i li bili i h f l d f ki d i i f h f hi P f iICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated beforeinvesting in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are notpredictions and may be subject to change without notice.ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have beenmandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period precedingICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period precedingtwelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investmentbanking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchantbanking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICISecurities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party inconnection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict ofinterest at the time of publication of this report.It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have notreceived any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned inthe report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research reportthe report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownershipin various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

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IDirect TechnicalOutlook 2017 - Open Online Trading Accountcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_TechnicalOutlook_2017.pdf · Tata Motors Auto 450-470 565 403 23 Bharat Forge