2018 Idaho Barley Report
Kelly Olson, [email protected]
Idaho Barley Commission
January 2018
mailto:[email protected]
Key Points
SMALLER U.S. and World Barley Crops
MY 2017/18 Barley Market Fundamentals
Beer Demand Outlook
Food Barley Outlook
2018 Crop Outlook
2017 Idaho Barley Crop
Harvested area 510,000 acres -12%
Production 48.45 million bu -22%
Ave. Yields 95 bpa -11%
2017-18 Idaho barley farm-gate value - $265 million -1%(UI 2017 Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture)
Idaho barley represents 34% of total U.S. barley production
Source: USDA Small Grains Report, Sept. 30, 2017
Grain Price Outlook2017/18 Global Grain S&D
Source: USDA WASDE, Jan. 12, 2018
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 MY 2017/18
Production Use
578
Ending Stocks
627653
643
million metric tons
2017/18 Barley MarketWASDE, Jan. 12, 2017
MY 2017/18 MY 2016/17 MY 2015/16
Area harvested (mil. acres)
2.0 2.6 3.2
Yield (bu/Ac) 72.6 77.9 69.1
Beginning Stocks (mbu) 106 102 79
Production 142 200 218
Imports 15 10 19
Total Supply 263 312 315
Feed 35 39 44
Food/malting 162 162 158
Exports 5 4 11
Total Use 202 205 213
Ending 61 106 102
Ave. price $4.15-4.85 $4.96 $5.52
-9%
-29%
-42%
20U.S. Beer Demand
2016 Craft Beer Sales
+6.2%12.3% share
Percent Change
in Volume
Calendar
Year
2017 (Dec1)
Calendar
Year
2016
Calendar
Year
2015
Calendar
Year
2014
Calendar
Year
2013
Total Supply -1.7% +0.0% -0.1% +0.4% -1.2%
Domestics -0.8% -1.2% -0.7% -1.3%
Imports +6.8% +6.2% +6.9% -0.6%
Steady growth in food barley demand
Barleys Health & Wellness
Reduces cholesterol and associated
risk of heart disease
Regulates blood-glucose levels,
reduces glucose intolerance and
insulin resistance
Helps with weight control
Improves digestive health.
Barleys Health & Wellness
Top 100 Foods for Alzeimer Prevention
University of Idaho Healthy Diabetes Plate
20Food Barley
Products
2018 New Crop Outlook
North Idaho malting & food barley contracts steady to higher.
U.S. winter wheat acres pegged at 32.61 million, lowest since 1909.
U.S. corn acres projected to be 1% lower.
Drought expanding across key HRW growing areas.
NWS BOISE
La Nina Winter Outlook
Wintertime La Nina Pattern
Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean
La Nia conditions are present
La Nia is favored to persist (~85-95% chance) through winter 2018, with transition to ENSO neutral by spring.La Nia is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*
Idaho Grain Market Report published weekly by IBC at www.barley.Idaho.gov
Links to recorded WEBINARS Five Common Mistakes in Grain Marketing featuring Ed Usset,
University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management. Winter 2018 Weather & Water Outlook featuring Troy
Lindquist, NWS Senior Hydrologist. How to Write a Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Plan, featuring Ed
Usset, Univ. of Minnesota.
GeoGrain Market App working with app developer to add Idaho elevator cash prices. Offers terrific grain market optimizer tools.
IBC GROWER EDUCATION
http://www.barley.idaho.gov/
Thank YouKelly Olson, 208.334.2090,
208.409.9165 cell
[email protected]
www.barley.idaho.gov
mailto:[email protected]
