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Idaho Barley Commission Report · PDF file2018 Idaho Barley Report Kelly Olson, [email protected] Idaho Barley Commission January 2018

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  • 2018 Idaho Barley Report

    Kelly Olson, [email protected]

    Idaho Barley Commission

    January 2018

    mailto:[email protected]

  • Key Points

    SMALLER U.S. and World Barley Crops

    MY 2017/18 Barley Market Fundamentals

    Beer Demand Outlook

    Food Barley Outlook

    2018 Crop Outlook

  • 2017 Idaho Barley Crop

    Harvested area 510,000 acres -12%

    Production 48.45 million bu -22%

    Ave. Yields 95 bpa -11%

    2017-18 Idaho barley farm-gate value - $265 million -1%(UI 2017 Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture)

    Idaho barley represents 34% of total U.S. barley production

    Source: USDA Small Grains Report, Sept. 30, 2017

  • Grain Price Outlook2017/18 Global Grain S&D

    Source: USDA WASDE, Jan. 12, 2018

    2350

    2400

    2450

    2500

    2550

    2600

    2650

    MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 MY 2017/18

    Production Use

    578

    Ending Stocks

    627653

    643

    million metric tons

  • 2017/18 Barley MarketWASDE, Jan. 12, 2017

    MY 2017/18 MY 2016/17 MY 2015/16

    Area harvested (mil. acres)

    2.0 2.6 3.2

    Yield (bu/Ac) 72.6 77.9 69.1

    Beginning Stocks (mbu) 106 102 79

    Production 142 200 218

    Imports 15 10 19

    Total Supply 263 312 315

    Feed 35 39 44

    Food/malting 162 162 158

    Exports 5 4 11

    Total Use 202 205 213

    Ending 61 106 102

    Ave. price $4.15-4.85 $4.96 $5.52

    -9%

    -29%

    -42%

  • 20U.S. Beer Demand

    2016 Craft Beer Sales

    +6.2%12.3% share

    Percent Change

    in Volume

    Calendar

    Year

    2017 (Dec1)

    Calendar

    Year

    2016

    Calendar

    Year

    2015

    Calendar

    Year

    2014

    Calendar

    Year

    2013

    Total Supply -1.7% +0.0% -0.1% +0.4% -1.2%

    Domestics -0.8% -1.2% -0.7% -1.3%

    Imports +6.8% +6.2% +6.9% -0.6%

  • Steady growth in food barley demand

  • Barleys Health & Wellness

    Reduces cholesterol and associated

    risk of heart disease

    Regulates blood-glucose levels,

    reduces glucose intolerance and

    insulin resistance

    Helps with weight control

    Improves digestive health.

  • Barleys Health & Wellness

    Top 100 Foods for Alzeimer Prevention

    University of Idaho Healthy Diabetes Plate

  • 20Food Barley

    Products

  • 2018 New Crop Outlook

    North Idaho malting & food barley contracts steady to higher.

    U.S. winter wheat acres pegged at 32.61 million, lowest since 1909.

    U.S. corn acres projected to be 1% lower.

    Drought expanding across key HRW growing areas.

  • NWS BOISE

    La Nina Winter Outlook

    Wintertime La Nina Pattern

    Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean

    La Nia conditions are present

    La Nia is favored to persist (~85-95% chance) through winter 2018, with transition to ENSO neutral by spring.La Nia is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*

  • Idaho Grain Market Report published weekly by IBC at www.barley.Idaho.gov

    Links to recorded WEBINARS Five Common Mistakes in Grain Marketing featuring Ed Usset,

    University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management. Winter 2018 Weather & Water Outlook featuring Troy

    Lindquist, NWS Senior Hydrologist. How to Write a Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Plan, featuring Ed

    Usset, Univ. of Minnesota.

    GeoGrain Market App working with app developer to add Idaho elevator cash prices. Offers terrific grain market optimizer tools.

    IBC GROWER EDUCATION

    http://www.barley.idaho.gov/

  • Thank YouKelly Olson, 208.334.2090,

    208.409.9165 cell

    [email protected]

    www.barley.idaho.gov

    mailto:[email protected]