IANAS Workshop“Toward a Sustainable Energy Future”

30-31 October, 2008

Prof. José Goldemberg

University of São Paulo

Brazil

CONCLUSIONS

1. Meeting the basic energy needs of the poorest people on this planet is a moral and social imperative that can and must be pursued in concert with sustainability objectives.

2. Concerted efforts must be made to improve energy efficiency and reduce the carbon intensity of the world economy.

3. Technologies for capturing and sequestering carbon from fossil fuels, particularly coal, can play a major role in the cost-effective management of global carbon dioxide emissions.

4. Competition for oil and natural gas supplies has the potential to become a source of growing geopolitical tension and economic vulnerability for many nations in the decades ahead.

5. As a low-carbon resource, nuclear power can continue to make a significant contribution to the world’s energy portfolio in the future, but only if major concerns related to capital cost, safety and weapons proliferation are addressed.

6. Renewable energy in its many forms offers immense opportunities for technological progress and innovation.

7. Biofuels hold great promise for simultaneously addressing climate-change and energy security concerns.

8. The development of cost-effective energy storage technologies, new energy carriers and improved transmission infrastructure could substantially reduce cost and expand the contribution from a variety of energy supply options.

9. The S&T community – together with the general public – has a critical role to play in advancing sustainable energy solutions and must be effectively engaged.

“LEAPFROGGING”

It is in the best economic and societal interest of developing countries to “leapfrog” past the wasteful energy trajectory followed by today’s industrialized countries. Mechanisms must be introduced that encourage and assist these countries in the introduction of efficient and environmentally friendly energy technologies as soon as possible.

TPES/population

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Af rica Latin

America

India Asia China Non-OECD

Europe

Former

USSR

Middle

East

Non OECD OECD

North

America

OECD

Pacifi c

OECD

Europe

OECS Total World

1971

1980

1990

2004

8

Refrigerator energy use in the United States over time

11Source: David Goldstein, Natural Resources Defense Council

Energy savings in the OECD(1973 – 1988)

12

Efficiency of coal-fired power production

13Source: Graus and Worrell, 2006.

Schematic illustration of a sedimentary basin with a number of geological sequestration options

14Source: IPCC, 2005

15 Fluxos de petróleo

Segurança de Abastecimento

Modern renewables projections for 2010 and 2020

20

Note: Projections of modern renewables (including small hydro, excluding large) based on 11.5 percent growth per year, over the period 2001-2005.Sources: UNDP, UNDESA, and WEC, 2000 and 2004; REN21, 2006; And IEA, 2006

Land Use for Ethanol (2006)BRAZIL

  Ethanol production from sugarcane Agricultural area (million ha)

  (billion litres/year)(million bbl/day)

Sugarcane to ethanol

Sugarcane (total)

Production 17.8 0.31 2.9 5

To replace 10% total gasoline consumption*

189 3.3

31  ---

To replace 10% total petroleum consumption*

746 13

123 --- 

Sugarcane agricultural area in the world

--------

--- 20

UNITED STATES

Ethanol production from corn Agricultural area (million ha)

(billion litres/year) (million bbl/day) Corn to ethanol Corn (total)

Production 18.4 0.32 5.1 29

Corn agricultural area in the world

---  ---   --- 144

World’s total agricultural area: 1,228 million hectares *World petroleum consumption (2005): 4,478 billion litres/year* World gasoline consumption (2005): 1,292 billion litres/year

22

Energy balance of alcohol production from different feedstocks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Sugarcane Sugar beet Wheat straw Corn Wood

ethanol feedstock

ener

gy

ou

tpu

t/in

pu

t ra

tio

Sources: (Macedo et alii, 2004; UK DTI, 2003 and USDA, 1995)

(fro

m f

ossi

l fu

els)