Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in the Philippines, Weather Forecasting, & Facts about Climate Change

8/13/2019 Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in the Philippines, Weather Forecasting, & Facts about Climate Change

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Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in the

Philippines, Weather Forecasting &Facts about Climate Change

OSCAR C. TABADA

Information Education Campaign on Disaster Awareness andPreparedness for the Employees of Sun Star Cebu

P. Del Rosario, Cebu City

D e ce m b e r 2 0 , 2 0 1 3


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PLANETARIUM and

STANDARD TIME SERVICE

THE OZONE LAYER

CLICK HERE FOR THELATEST WEATHER FCST

Welcome to
http://../My%20Documents/CLICK%20HERE%20FOR%20THE%20LATEST%20WEATHER%20FCST.ppthttp://../My%20Documents/CLICK%20HERE%20FOR%20THE%20LATEST%20WEATHER%20FCST.ppthttp://../My%20Documents/CLICK%20HERE%20FOR%20THE%20LATEST%20WEATHER%20FCST.ppt


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WHAT LIES AHEAD . . .

OF US

Climate Information Monitor ing and Predict ion Center (CLIMPC)

Climatology & Agrometeorology Branch (CAB)

PAGASA-DOST

Oscar C. TabadaPAGASA Visayas


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MTSAT Dec. 20, 2013


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Daily Rainfall forecast for

Dec. 20 - 26, 2013


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8Pm Fri Dec. 20, 2013

LPA


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8Am Sat Dec. 21, 2013


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8Pm Sat Dec. 21, 2013


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8Am Sun Dec. 22, 2013


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8Pm Sun Dec. 22, 2013


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8Am Mon Dec. 23, 2013


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8Pm Mon Dec. 23, 201


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8Am Tue Dec. 24, 201


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8Pm Tue Dec. 24, 201


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8Am Wed Dec. 25, 201

LPA


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8Pm Wed Dec. 25, 201

LPA


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8Am Thu Dec. 26, 2013

LPA


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8Pm Thu Dec. 26, 2013

LPA


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Widescreen Presentation

Tips and tools for creating and

presenting wide format slides

CLIMATE OUTLOOKJanuary April 2014


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Actual Rainfall

Normal Rainfallx 100%Percent of Normal =

PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

below normal

near normal

above normal

way below normal


< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %


< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

below normal

near normal

above normal

way below normal

Percent of Normal Interpretation

for Monthly Rainfall


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January 2014

Forecast (mm) % Normal

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Nov 22, 2013

Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


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February 2014


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)



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March 2014


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)



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April 2014


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook ( d t d N b 2013)


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ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14.

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook (updated November 2013)

neutral ENSO conditions through the rest of 2013 and into early 2014, with a warming tendency

during northern spring and summer 2014. Development of weak El Nino conditions appears

possible by the middle of 2014.

FORECAST TEMPERATURE


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MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF LUZON

LOWLANDS

AREAS OF LUZON

19-33 C

FORECAST TEMPERATURE

VISAYAS

23- 32 C

MOUNTAINOUSAREAS OF

MINDANAO

17-28 C

LOWLANDSAREAS OF

MINDANAO

19-33 C

14-25 C

Weather Systems that may affect the country


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January - February

Northeast (NE) monsoon

Tail-end of Cold Front

Easterlies

Low Pressure Area

Ridge of High Pressure

Area

Tropical cyclone

March October

NE to Southwest (SW)

monsoon

ITCZ *

Easterly wave

Low Pressure Area

Ridge of High PressureArea

Tropical cyclone


(January December)

ITCZ * - Intertropical Convergence Zone



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October - December

Northeast (NE) monsoon

Tail-end of Cold Front

Low Pressure Area

Easterly Wave

Ridge of High Pressure Area

Tropical cyclone ITCZ*


(January December)

ITCZ * - Intertropical Convergence Zone

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST


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MONTH FORECAST

December 1 or 2

January 1 or 2

February Slim Chance

March 0 or 1

April 0 or 1

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST

NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES*


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ABCDEFGH

IJKLMNOPQRSTUVWYZ

AURINGBISINGCRISINGDANTEEMONGFABIANGORIOHUANINGISANGJOLINAKIKOLABUYOMARINGNANDOODETTEPAOLO

QUEDANRAMILSANTITINOURDUJAVINTAWILMAYOLANDAZORAIDA

I

2009

2013

2017

2021

AGATONBASYANGCALOYDOMENGESTERFLORITAGLENDAHENRY

INDAYJOSEKATRINGLUISMARIONENENGOMPONGPAENGQUEENIERUBYSENIANGTOMASUSMANVENUSWALDOYAYANGZENY

AMANGBETTYCHEDENGDODONGEGAYFALCONGORINGHANNAINENGJENNYKABAYANLANDOMARILYNNONOYONYOKPERLA

QUIELRAMONSARAHTISOYURSULAVIRINGWENGYOYOYZIGZAG

AMBOBUTCHOYCARINADINDOENTENGFERDIEGENERHELENIGMEJULIANKARENLAWINMARCENINAOFELPEPITO

QUINTAROLLYSIONYTONYOULYSSESVICKYWARRENYOYONGZOSIMO

II

2010

2014

2018

2022

II

2011

2015

2019

2023

II

2012

2016

2020

2024

NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

* REVISED LIST OF NAMES FOR TC WITHIN THE PAR (Effective June 2012)


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2013 2014 2015 2016

ALAMID

BRUNO

CONCHING

DOLOR

ERNIE

FLORANTEGERARDO

HERNAN

ISKO

JEROME

AGILA

BAGWIS

CHITO

DIEGO

ELENA

FELINOGUNDING

HARRIET

INDANG

JESSA

ABE

BERTO

CHARO

DADO

ESTOY

FELIONGENING

HERMAN

IRMA

JAIME

ALAKDAN

BALDO

CLARA

DENCIO

ESTONG

FELIPEGARDO

HELING

ISMAEL

JULIO

AUXILIARY LIST

REVISED LIST OF NAMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES WITHIN


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1 2 3 4

2010 / 2014

2018 / 2022

2011 / 2015

2019 / 2023

2012 / 2016

2020 / 2024

2009/2013

2017 /2021AGATON

BASYANG

CALOY

DOMENG

ESTER

FLORITA

GLENDA

HENRYINDAY

JOSE

KATRING

LUIS

MARIO

NENENG

OMPONG

PAENGQUEENIE

RUBY

SENIANG

TOMAS

USMAN

VENUS

WALDO

YAYANGZENY

AMANG

BETTY

CHEDENG

DODONG

EGAY

FALCON

GORING

HANNAINENG

JENNY

KABAYAN

LANDO

MARILYN

NONOY

ONYOK

PERLAQUIEL

RAMON

SARAH

TISOY

URSULA

VIRING

WENG

YOYOYZIGZAG

AMBO

BUTCHOY

CARINA

DINDO

ENTENG

FERDIE

GENER

HELENIGME

JULIAN

KAREN

LAWIN

MARCE

NINA

OFEL

PEPITOQUINTA

ROLLY

SIONY

TONYO

ULYSSES

VICKY

WARREN

YOYONGZOSIMO

AURING

BISING

CRISING

DANTE (TS)

EMONG (TS)

FABIAN (TD)

GORIO (TS)

HUANING(TY)

ISANG

JOLINA

KIKO

LABUYO

MARING

NANDO

ODETTEPAOLO

QUEDAN

RAMIL

SANTI

TINO

URDUJA

VINTA

WILMAYOLANDA

THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY(Effective January 2013)


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TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Number 51-80

61-90

71-00

LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO

1951-

80

1961-

90

1971-00


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CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACKS OF

TROPICAL CYCLONES ENTERING THE

PAR BY QUARTER

O G Q C O


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MONTHLY AVERAGE FREQUENCY OFOCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES INTHE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

0.50.3 0.3 0.4

0.9

1.5

3.4 3.4 3.1

2.7

2.3

1.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)


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)

17 13 9 1134

48

126 130111

7144

3610 6

9 18

30

46

80 67

77

88

87

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

NumberofTr

opicalCyclones

Number of Landfalling TC's

Number of non-Landfalling TC's

Monthly

Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4


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Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70%entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set)

)


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TYPHOON YOLANDA (Nov 6 9 2013)


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TYPHOON YOLANDA (Nov. 6-9, 2013)


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Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

S & T - Based Response Strategies to

Address Extreme Weather Events

VISAYAS PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES

f


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Area of Jurisdiction

NL-PRSD

NCR-PRSDSL-PRSD

Vis-PRSDM-PRSD

Tuguegarao

Quezon City

Legazpi

Mactan

El Salvador

Davao City


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Agromet

PRSD Office

Synoptic Station

Upper Air

Radar

FFC

LEGEND:

Agromet

SYNOP1. Mactan

2. Tagbilaran

3. Dumaguete4. Guiuan

5. Catbalogan

6. Tacloban

7. Borongan

8. Maasin

9. Roxas

10. Iloilo

11. Pto Princesa

12. Cuyo13. Coron

14. Pagasa Is.

15. San Jose

AGROMET

1. Mambusao

2. La Granja

3. Dumangas

4. VSU-Baybay

5. SPCP-Aborlan

RADAR1.Mactan2.Guiuan

UPPER-AIR

1. Mactan

2. Pto Princesa

VPRSD LOCATION OF STATION

Monitoring Capabilities


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ITBAYAT

BASCO

CALAYAN

APARRILAOAG

TUGUEGARAO

PALANAN

CASIGURAN

VIGAN

BAGUIO

DAGUPANBALER

CLSU-MUNOZCABANATUANIBA

SUBIC CLARK

CAVITE ALABAT

JOMALIG

DAETTAGAYTAY

AMBULONG

INFANTA

CSSAC-PILIVIRAC

LEGASPICATARMAN

MASBATEROMBLON

SN.

FRANCISCO

CALAPAN

SAN JOSE

CORON

PTO.

PRINCESA

BORONGANCATBALOGAN

GUIUANTACLOBAN

MACTAN

ROXAS

ILOILO

MAASI

NTAGBILARAN

SIARGAO

SURIGAO

BUTUANHINATUA

N

CAG. DE

ORODIPOLOGMALAYBALAY

COTABATO DAVAOZAMBOANGA

GEN. SANTOS

BALABAC

EXISTING SURFACE

SYNOPTIC STATION

AUTOMATIC WEATHER

STATION

PAGASA

SURFACESYNOPTIC

STATIONSMMSU-BATAC

BSU-LA TRINIDAD

CSSAC-PILI

VISCA-BAYBAY

CLSU-MUNOZ

PAGASA

AGRO-MET

STATIONS

SPCP-ABORLAN

DA-BASCO

NVSIT-BAYOMBONG

ISU-ECHAGUE

DMMMSU-LA UNION

UPLB-NASTAGAYTAY

CENTRAL AGROMET-QUEZON CITY

HA. LUISITA-

TARLAC

BVHS-BULAN UEP-

CATARMAN

PSPC-MAMBUSAO

MSU-MARAWI

TRRC-TAGUM

PCA-BAGO OSHIRO


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Visibility

Clouds Temperature

Relative Humidity

Rainfall Wind Speed and Wind Direction

Atmospheric Pressure

Atmospheric Phenomena



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APARRI

BAGUIO

BALER

VIRAC

GUIUAN

PAGASA

WEATHER

RADARSTATIONS

LAOAG

LEGASPI

MACTAN

TANAY

PAGASA

UPPER-AIR

STATIONS

CEBU

HINATUAN

TAGAYTAY

TAMPAKAN

BUSUANGA

ILOILO

ZAMBOANGADAVAO

SBMA

QUEZON

BASCO

PALAWAN

DOPPLER RADAR

Basco


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Virac

Aparri

Baler

Baguio

SBMA

DOPPLER RADARPROGRAM

Hinatuan

South

Cotabato

CEBU

Guiuan

Tagaytay

OP/CALAMITY FUND

PAGASA 2007 GAA

JICA-PROPOSED

UPGRADING BY DOST-GIA FUND

FUTURE PLAN

15 in 2015

QUEZON

BUSUANGA

ILOILO

ZAMBOANGA

LEGEND:


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ILCD TV monitors for weather models, MTSAT & RADAR panoramicdisplay.

PAGASA VISAYAS FORECASTERS WORKSTATION

Cebu Doppler Radar


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pp

TS SENDONG


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Mactan Radar Image at 11:48Pm Dec. 16, 2011TS SENDONG

FLOODINGS IN CAGAYAN DE ORO AND


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FLOODINGS IN CAGAYAN DE ORO AND

MINDANAO DURING TS SENDONG OF DEC.

17, 2011

Do we have to wait for this to happen?Cagayan de Oro City Flooding


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Cagayan de Oro City Flooding

Do we have to wait for this to happen?Cagayan de Oro City Flooding


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Cagayan de Oro City Flooding


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At 1 45 PM D 4 2012 th t f th t h PABLO


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EYE

At 1:45 PM, Dec. 4, 2012 the center of the typhoon PABLO was

located, based on the Mactan Doppler Radar, at 70 KMS East of

Siquijor Island.

Typhoon PABLORadar Image


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TY Bopha was the lowest latitude

typhoon since Typhoon Vamei in

2001 (1.4 above eq.).

TY Bopha became a typhoon at just

3.8 from the equator.


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Dumaguete Pier after storm Pablo

SOURCE: http://proudlydumaguete.blogspot.com/2012/12/dumaguete-pier-after-storm-pablo.html


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Lusapon, Boljoon, Cebu

SOURCE: http://www.demotix.com/news/1658858/waves-wreck-seaside-village-typhoon-bopha-spares-most-cebu#media-1658625

Wrath of Typhoon PABLO (Dec. 4, 2012)


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Dec. 4, 2012 YES, WE HAVE NO BANANAS TODAY A mother and her daughter wash their

clothes next to flattened banana trees at a plantation in Monte Vista town, Compostela Valley

province, on Wednesday after Typhoon Pablo ravaged the province. Pablo destroyed 70 to 80

percent of plantations mostly bananas for export, said Gov. Arthur Uy. AFP

SOURCE: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/319131/waters-rose-so-suddenly


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SOURCE: http://ph.news.yahoo.com/photos/pablo-s-wrath-lives-taken-destruction-widespread-slideshow/officials-described-scenes-total-devastation-caused-philippines-worst-photo-183230520.html

A man looks at his damaged house destroyed by strong winds brought about by Typhoon Bopha in

Butuan City, Agusan del Norte, in the southern Philippine island of Mindanao. The death toll from a

typhoon that ravaged the Philippines has jumped to 274 with hundreds more missing, as rescuers

battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides


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SOURCE: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/12/05/12/238-dead-hundreds-missing-due-pablo

Dec. 4, 2012 Bodies of flash flood victims lie on the ground as villagers look for their missing

relatives on Wednesday after Typhoon Pablo hit New Bataan in Compostela province. Pablo ravaged

parts of Mindanao killing over 200 people, but many more are reported missing. Photo: Reuters


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TYPHOON YOLANDA (HAIYAN) 2413Nov. 8, 2013


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Cebu

TYPHOON YOLANDA (HAIYAN) 2413Nov. 8, 2013


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Cebu

November 8, 2013 4:11 AMSuluan Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar


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Maximum sustained wind/Gustiness: 225/260 kph

Movement & speed: WNW at 39 kph

November 8, 2013 4:39 AMHomonhon Island, Eastern Samar


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November 8, 2013 4:48 AMCalicoan Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar


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November 8, 2013 5:30 AMManicani Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar


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November 8, 2013 6:50 AMSan Roque, Tolosa, Leyte


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November 8, 2013 9:41 AMDaanbantayan-Medellin, Cebu


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November 8, 2013 10:28 AMSanta Fe, Bantayan Island, Cebu


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November 8, 2013 12:00 PMMangalabong Island, Concepcion, Iloilo


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HOUR-BY-HOUR TRACK


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Impacts of TY YOLANDA


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Families Person Barangays Municipalities Provinces

3,424,593 16,078,181 12,139 574 44 provinces of

Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII,VIII, X, XI, CARAGA

Source: NDRRMC,

as of 20 December 2013

SitRep #69

Affected Population

Casualties

Dead Injured Missing

6,092 27,665 1,779

Damage (PhP)

Infrastructure Agriculture TOTAL

18,226,835,334.29 18,354,150,996.38 36,662,086,330.67

Impacts: Damaged PAGASA Doppler radar in Guiuan, Eastern Samar


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photo - credit: AFP Central Command from their Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.35670128446730

6.1073741835.323973651073403&type=1

Guiuan, Eastern Samar


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Source: rappler.com


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Vehicles float in floodwaters Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013, following the devastation left by

Typhoon Haiyan that hit Tacloban city in Leyte province in central Philippines.

T YOLANDA (HAIYAN) Nov 8, 2013 Tacloban


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A survivor walks beside a ship that was washed ashore hitting makeshift houses near an

oil depot in Tacloban city, Leyte province central Philippines, Nov. 11, 2013. (AP

Photo/Aaron Favila)

Bantayan Island


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Source: http://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolated
http://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolatedhttp://www.rappler.com/nation/43319-cebu-municipalities-isolated


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A resident runs past an uprooted tree amidst strong winds as Typhoon Haiyan pounded Cebu

City, in central Philippines on Nov. 8, 2013. (Jay Directo/AFP/Getty Images)


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Cloud that produces Thunderstorm is the

C l i b Cl d


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12,000 m

9,000 m

6,000 m

3,000 m

Cumulonimbus Cloud



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LIGHTNING

HEAVY RAINFALL

HAIL

TORNADO



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Forked LightningCrooked lightning

bolts discharge from

cloud to ground or

cloud to air

Sheet LightningClouds, rain blocks

forked lightning bolt,

but flash illuminates

clouds.

Ball LightningOn rare occasions,

small glowing balls

loops from the cloud,

but quickly vanish.



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DAMAGES DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE


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LIGHTNING SAFETY

RULES (INDOORS)


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RULES (INDOORS)

STAY AWAY FROM ELECTRICALSOCKETS, APPLIANCES,TELEVISION AND TELEPHONES;

SHUT-OFF THE MAIN POWERSWITCH.

STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS,WATER FAUCETS, PIPES ANDELECTRICAL OUTLETS.

LIGHTNING SAFETYRULES (OUTDOORS)


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RULES (OUTDOORS)

BE ALERT OF THE SIGNS OF THEIMPENDING STORM

GET AWAY FROM TREES OR TALLOBJECTS. STAY AWAY FROM HILLTOPS,

BENCHES AND OPEN FIELDS AND SEEKSHELTER IN A LOW LYING AREA SUCH ASA DITCH OR RAVINE.

IF YOU ARE WITH OTHER PEOPLE,SPREAD OUT.

STAY AWAY FROM WATER OR WET AREAS.

Lightning safety experts have invented

a "lightning safety position" that is very

WHAT TO DO IF THERE IS NOSHELTER AND YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A

THUNDERSTORM?


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a lightning safety position that is very

important to know if you are caught in

a thunder storm and you can't find ashelter. This position looks hard, but it

could save your life. There are several

reasons for doing it.

It makes you a smaller target.

With your heels together, if lightning hitsthe ground, it goes through the closest foot,up to your heel and then transfers to the

other foot and goes back to the groundagain. If you don't put your feet together,lightning could go through your heart andkill you.

You put your hands over your ears toprotect them from thunder.

THUNDERSTORM?


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Impacts of flooding


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Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical ServicesAdministration


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Phase 1: Thunderstorm Warning

System (TSTM-WS)


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THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.2 VPRSD4:30 PM JULY 20, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Dumanjug #Cebu, Ubay #Bohol and nearby areas within 1-2 hours.

All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning and

possible flashfloods. Keep monitoring for updates.

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.3 VPRSD6:20 PM JULY 20, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Lapulapu, Cordova, Mandaue, Cebu City, Talisay, Minglanilla,

Consolacion, Liloan, Compostela, Danao #Cebu and nearby areas within 1-2 hours.

All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning and

possible flashfloods. Keep monitoring for updates.


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THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.3 #VPRSD8:52 PM JULY 14, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava #NegrosOccidental

and nearby areas which may persist for 1-2 hours.

All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning

and possible flashfloods.

Keep monitoring for updates.

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY No.2 #VPRSD5:40 PM JULY 14, 2013

Expect thunderstorm over Himamaylan City, Kabankalan City, Ilog #NegrosOccidental

and nearby areas which may persist for 1-2 hours.

All are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning

and possible flashfloods.

Keep monitoring for updates.


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HAZARDS ASSOCIATEDWITH THUNDERSTORMS:


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TORNADO

SAMPLEPICTURES OF

DAMAGES DUE

TO TORNADOES


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(BUHAWI)

TORNADO AND TYPHOON


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AtmosphericPhenomena

Maximum

Wind Speed(kph)

Diameter(kms)

Lifespan

TORNADO 500 kph Less than

1km

20 30 min

TYPHOON 300 kph 1,000 km 5 7 days


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HAZARDS ASSOCIATEDWITH THUNDERSTORMS:


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HAIL (CHUNKS

OF ICE FROMTHE SKY)


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SW Monsoon Enhanced by T MARING (Aug. 17-21, 2013)


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Aug 6, 2012: Torrential rains due to the SW Monsoon (Habagat ) induced by

by T GENER have flooded Manila and neighboring Provinces, displacing

Tens of thousands of residents with a death toll of 57 persons.


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.and The Wedding


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TYPHOON PASSING NORTH OF

THE PLACE (CLOSELY WATCH

FOR THE WIND DIRECTIONS AS

THE WINDS OF ATROPICAL

CYCLONE


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MANILA


THE TYPHOON APROACHES);

TYPHOON PASSING NORTH OF

THE PLACE (CLOSELY WATCH


THE WINDS OF ATROPICAL

CYCLONE


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MANILA


THE TYPHOON APROACHES);

BACKING WINDS DUE WEST


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HAZARDS DUE TO TROPICALCYCLONES


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Storm Surge


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5 METER (16 FT) OF STORM SURGE STRIKES THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE DURING HURRICANE ELOISE, 1975

T YOLANDA (HAIYAN) Nov 8, 2013


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T YOLANDA (HAIYAN) Nov 8, 2013


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Residents of coastal communities in Leyte were warned as early as two years ago

of severe flooding from storm surges reaching as high as 12 meters (39.37 feet).


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Survivors pass by two large boats after they were washed ashore by strong waves caused by Typhoon Haiyan in

Tacloban city, Leyte province central Philippines on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Computed Storm Surge, Initial run time: 8:00AM, 07 Nov 2013


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Forecast Storm Surge, Initial run time: 8:00AM, 07 Nov2013 (JMA model)


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Public Storm WarningSignal Number 2


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A moderate tropical cyclone

will affect the locality.

Winds of 61 and up to 100

KPH may be expected in at

least24 hours.

Pu b l i c S t o r m W a r n i n g

S i g n a l N u m b e r 3


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A strong tropical cyclone will

affect the locality.

Winds of101 and up to 185

KPH may be expected in at

least18 hours.


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TY

Wind direction: Southwest

Why the frequent floods,

and how to prevent them?


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and how to prevent them?

Why does it flood so easilythese days?

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA (Nov. 17, 2013)


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Dec. 13, 2013: SNOW In Egypt for the First Time In 112 Years


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For the first time in 112 years, it snows in Cairo


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Climate change.The earths temperature is rising because the heat emitted by thesun is trapped by greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other gases) in the atmosphere. The

higher temperature is melting the polar ice caps, causing more water to evaporate. The

atmosphere becomes soaked with moisture More moisture in the clouds equals heavier rains


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atmosphere becomes soaked with moisture. More moisture in the clouds equals heavier rains.

The Greenhouse Effect


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PFCs

HFCs

SF6

Greenhouse gases(GHGs) trap heatfrom the sun tokeep the Earthwarm.

H2O

Water vapor

CO2

Carbon Dioxide

CH4

Methane

NO2

Nitrous Oxide

CO2

CH4

N2O

HFCs

PFCs SF6

CO2CO2

CH4CO2N2OCH

4

HFCs

SF6SF

6

CO2 CO

2

CO2

CO2

CO2CO2 CO

2

CH4

N2O

Theimagepartwi th relationship IDrId6 wasnotfound in thefile.

Increasing levels ofGHGsin the atmospheremakefor a warmer worldleadingto abrupt changes inclimate!


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More intense andlonger droughts

since 1970


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Direct Observationsof Recent Climate

Change

Increase intensity oftropical cyclone

activity since 1970.

Hot days, hotnights, & heat

waves havebecome morefrequent.

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report:


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Slide Copy 1

When Will We Feel Climate Change?


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Slide Copy 1

Slide Copy 2

Slide Copy 3

Slide Copy 4

Slide Copy 5

With the ice caps melting, more water is poured into the oceans, thusraising their levels. The seas invade low-lying areas. If the melting of

the ice does not stop, low-lying islands will disappear; the bigger ones

will have their areas reduced as the seas invade their shores.


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Global Projections of future changes in Climate


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Now.


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2005


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AUGUST 2012


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Melting Polar Ice Caps Create A Lake on Top of the World

Taken on July 25, 2013. A North Pole Environmental Observatory Webcam

C t lt d t th N th P l S I i A ti


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Captures a melt pond at the North Pole, Sea Ice in Arctic.

Sea Level Rise ProjectionsSea level rises caused by water expansion due to warming of oceans, and melting of

glaciers and ice sheets are projected to increase by 18 to 59 centimetres by 2100.
http://e/antipolo/Users/PAGASA/wiki/2002


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18 cm 59 cm

Melting of glaciers

and ice sheets

Warming of

oceans

Simulations


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+ 4 Meters

+ 8 Meters

+12 Meters

Plan for the worst.

Hope for the best.


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CEBU CITY


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CEBU CITY


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CEBU CITY


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Iloilo City, the Philippines


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Fig. 2 Port of Iloilo

TACLOBAN CITY


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TACLOBAN CITY


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TACLOBAN CITY


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TACLOBAN CITY


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2rd Factor Illegal logging, Greedy loggers have ravaged our forests and mostof our mountains are now bald. Without trees, there are no roots to hold the soil together. Thus,

rainwater easily erodes the mountainsides, carrying the topsoil down to the streams and rivers

below.


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As the water flows down the waterways, it drops the silt it is carrying. Over the years,

this silt has made the waterways shallower so that they can hold less and less water.

They therefore easily overflow their banks.


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Floodwaters are now brown, unlike before when they were clearer and cleaner. That isbecause of the silt they are carrying. When the floods recede, they leave a thick layer of mud.

That is also the mud that they deposit at the bottom of the waterways.

3rd FactorRapid Urbanization With the development of morehousing subdivisions on what were once rice fields, the construction of more office buildings,shopping malls and residential condominiums in the cities, and the paving of more streets and

parking lots, a layer of nonporous concrete covers bigger and bigger parts of the land. Thus,

rain and floodwaters cannot pierce this layer to seep through the ground and into the

underground aquifers as they used to do. They have to stay atop all that concrete. The result:

floods.


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4th Factor Inadequate drainage system. The plannersdid not anticipate the big volumes of water that would inundate the land. The drainagesystem, therefore, cannot drain the rain and floodwaters fast enough.


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The fifth factor is GARBAGE


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specifically the bad habit of manyFilipinos to throw their trash

anywhere, and especially into

waterways.


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What can we do to improve the situation?1. Reduce all forms of burning so that the emission of

greenhouse gases is reduced, and stop or slow down therise in the earths temperature. That will help stop or slow


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down the melting of the polar ice caps and the rising levelsof the oceans.

2. Motor vehicles, power plants, factories burning coal, and

planters burning huge tracts of the Amazon rainforest arethe worst polluters of the earths atmosphere.

3. Leave more areas open to agriculture, parks, backyard

gardens, and other open spaces to leave rainwater more

room to seep into the ground.

4. Stop all logging, legal and illegal, as well as charcoal-

making. Charcoal makers cut even small trees. Dredge

waterways and lakes.


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5. Unclog drainage pipes and keep them clear of garbage.

Improve the drainage system.

6. Be good citizens and always follow laws.

How to Mitigate the Adverse Impact


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THE ECOTOWN

Enhancement of Carbon StocksWater SecurityFood Security

Renewable Energy from:


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Enhancement of Genetic Resourcesgy

Hydro

Solar

& Wind

Green Industries and Eco-tourismHydro-meteorological hazard mitigation

P. S.


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things to

remember

Building Resilience (flexible) alwaysinvolves taking some risks.


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Resilience reduces the burdenplaced on governments


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Resilience requiresCreative Innovation


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BuildingResilience can


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feel a bit likethis.

but when thetask is shared it

is realisable
http://isds2/shawie/MEDIA%20LECTURES/final%20lectures/OUTSIDE%20PAGASA/El%20NINIO.pps


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Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
http://isds2/shawie/MEDIA%20LECTURES/final%20lectures/OUTSIDE%20PAGASA/El%20NINIO.pps


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"In the end, we will conserve onlywhat we love, we will love only what

we understand, and we will

understand only what we are taught." Baba Dioum, Senegalese conservationist


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Plantmore

Trees!!
http://ndrb/FX/PAGASA%20Home%20Page.htm


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