Http://innovation.saintleo.edu THE EFFECTS OF CLASS SIZE ON STUDENT SUCCESS AS DETERMINED BY COURSE COMPLETION AND COURSE PASS RATE Dr. Jeff D Borden

http://innovation.saintleo.edu

THE EFFECTS OF CLASS SIZE ON STUDENT SUCCESS AS DETERMINED BY COURSE COMPLETION AND COURSE PASS RATE

Dr. Jeff D Borden


Best Success Indicator?


Grit Score


*I rarely plan ahead. I’m a spur-of-the-moment kind of person.~I’d be good in a dangerous job because I can make my mind up quickly.*If something better comes along it’s OK to cancel a longstanding appointment.~Seeing an animal injured or in pain doesn’t bother me in the slightest.*Driving fast, riding rollercoasters, and skydiving, appeal to me.~It doesn’t matter to me if I have to step on other people to get what I want.*I’m very persuasive. I have a talent for getting other people to do what I want.~Cheating on your partner is OK so long as you don’t get caught.*I find it easy to keep myself together in situations when others are cracking under pressure.~If I am able to con someone, that’s their problem. They deserve it.

Score each: 0, 1, 2, 3


Are You A Psychopath?

• 0-10: Low• 11-15: Below average • 16-20: Average• 21-25: High• 26-30: Very high


James Fallon


The Best Surgeons? CEO’s?


Dr. Jeff D Borden


Dr. Jeff D Borden


The “C’s” of Education


Agenda

•DATA•RESEARCH•FINDINGS

•CONCLUSIONS


1: Data


Voltaire: La Bégueule

• “Que le mieux est l'ennemi du bien”

• “Perfect is the enemy of good”

http://innovation.saintleo.edu14

Data Must Be Actionable

3.1

2.21.8

2.42.8 2.7 2.7

4.2

2.0

3.1

1.5

2.3

6.0

5.2 5.4

4.6 4.6 4.7

5.65.3

4.44.8 4.6

5.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

ACC BUS CIS ECO FIN HUM LEG MAT MKT POL PSY SOC

Avg.= 5.0

Avg. Student Activity/Section at Day 10 (hrs)

Avg.= 2.5

Dropped Students Completed Students


70%

80%

90%

100%

0 2,000 4,000

Avg. SectionCompletionRate = 80%

Department Term Start Enrollments

BUS

Dep

artm

ent C

ompl

etio

n R

ates

: Te

rm S

tart

to T

erm

End

I

IIIII

IV

MATH

ENGL

MGMT

ACCT

COMP

OTHER

HRM

ECON

HUMHIST

AVI

MKT

ART

LAWBIO

SCI

Retention Analysis


Actionable


Course Path


Data Leads To Better Questions

• How do our completion rates stack up?• How do you know if students are accessing media?• How are you using predictive strategies to remediate students?• How do you measure retention?• How do you measure participation other than discussion posts?• Do clicks represent student activity effectively?• What percentage of minority students complete online

programs?• What is the optimal class size for online?


Problems Are The Same

• Retention• Enrollments• Career readiness• Teaching / Learning

Quality• Critical Thinking /

Problem Solving• Cost• Collaboration


In God We Trust…All Others Bring Data.

• 7 out of 10 people hate surveys.• The 5th Trident sugarless gum dentist was

actually an orthodontist?

• Why So Little Data?



Kimball University Newsletter (2010)

• “Yes, most businesses in a given industry perform common functions. But if everyone's approach to these business functions was so similar, then why are there so many alternative organizations? Don't most organizations do things slightly differently than their industry peers? And if so, how do these "competitive advantages" get addressed by a pre-defined industry model?”

• “We’re taking a “wait and see” approach. We want to make sure we measure all of the right things before starting down the data path…”

• “Perfect is the enemy of good”


Measures: Easy or Important?


David Ogilvy

“People don’t think how they feel. They don’t say what they think and they don’t do what they say.”


Actions vs Words

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=AUVb3Vsx8TrxkM&tbnid=yPa-iv31mGMS6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://web.spotcoolstuff.com/television/free-vintage-tv-commercials&ei=eKTYUs6bLqKb2wWg84DADw&bvm=bv.59568121,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNF4ZEdodBmlaJ0yvhnAFAPR5JOFjQ&ust=1390015982784142


Prospect Theory: Kahneman & Tversky

• “Nobody is good at intuitive statistics, including statisticians.”

• “Steve”– Farmer– Librarian


Cup of Cereal

Consumed:• 1 cup of cereal w/half

cup of milk: 210 calories• 1 cup of orange juice:

125 calories• 3 mini donuts: 290

calories

Reported v Actual:• 625 calories• 1355 calories



Pamela Wright


Pamela Wright


Academically Adrift (Arum / Roksa, 2011)

• “….but for a large proportion of them [students] the gains in critical thinking, complex reasoning, and written communication are either exceedingly small or empirically nonexistent.”

• 45% : 2 Years• 36% : At Graduation


2: Research


• Does class size effect student success specific to course completion and final course pass rate in online classes?

Research Study Question


• Is eLearning effective?• Demographics vs Success? • Other measure(s) for student achievement?

– aptitude and readiness, learning styles and processes, teaching styles and mind-leading skills, etc

• Remediation for ill-prepared and educationally disadvantaged students?

• Student motivation / Effort?• Grade inflation?• AND…

Questions Not Asked or Answered Here…


• Maimonides: Class Size of 40 = Success (~1200)• Thousands of K-12 articles• Hundreds of Higher Education studies• Dozens of online education research pieces…

• WORKLOAD!

Class Size


• ICCOC• Fully online enrollments

– Will not include hybrid / supplemental• 200 level courses

– Not a 200 level study• 9800+ students in the study• Pull Data:

– Completion Rates– Grades– Class Sizes

The Site


• Most Studies Were Inconclusive• Most Studies Were Small• 2010: ~ Class Size in USA = 17• Correlation NOT Causal• Various Tests:

– Basic Measures– Spearman rho correlation– Independent T-Test– ANOVA– Tukey-B– Chi-Square– -STATA

Backdrop


Hypothesis? What is this?


Hypothesis

Grade

Completion Rate

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

.00

Incomplete Complete

<15

16-24

>25


Population Data

Term Course

Year Code Level Start Mid End Begtomid

Midtoend

Full Enrollment

GradeA

GradeB

GradeC

GradeD

GradeF

Dropped

Completed

Sp2010

Nutrition

2010 BIO 201-0X

Soph 29 25 24 0.862 .96 .82 24 12 4 3 2 3 1 24

• 67,918 Student Enrollments• 200+ Level Classes

• 617 Classes• 9,855 Student Enrollments


Various Data Issues

• 200+ level courses with Freshmen• Non-make courses• Courses with larger completion rate than

enrollment rate– Instructor’s in hospital– Students “must have” classes


Class Size Descriptions

Class Size Descriptor Number of StudentsCS1 1-15CS2 16-24CS3 25+


200+ Level Student Data

303

127

187

# of Classes

CS1CS2CS3


3: Findings


Descriptive Statistics: Class Size

Variable Period Mean SDCS1 Census 8.3 4

Course End 7.4 4.1CS2 Census 20.2 2.8

Course End 17.1 3.5CS3 Census 27.2 1.5

Course End 23.9 2.6


Pass / Fail Rate

Passed FailedCS1 6.99 1.64CS2 16.44 3.65CS3 22.78 3.38


Descriptive Statistics: Pass/Fail & Drop

Completed Pass (Fail) Rate Dropout Rate

Course Size Mean SD Mean SD

CS1 80.08% 24.6% 16.54% 22.71%

CS281.01% 18.11% 19.29% 19.31%

CS385.20% 12.91% 14.54% 11.11%


Summary Snapshot


4: Conclusions


Conclusions• Will these findings extrapolate?

– Policy “rule” bending for students– Transient population

• Do pass rates or completion rates matter to an institution?– If so, 17 online students seems uninformed.

• Should teaching larger sections use different techniques?


Recommendations

• Class size research:– Institutional differences– Per discipline / program / subject– Instructor workload– Does teaching change with size?– SHOULD teaching change with size?

• Is class size MORE valuable determining success than:– GPA– Parental education– Financial status– GRIT


Skeuomorph


Skeuomorphs


Skeuomorph


Better Ways


SAMR


That’s SO 1992…

• What’s the best way to lecture & assess my (9, 90, 900) students in class?– Sincerely, 1992


Why Do We…


That’s SO 2002…


• What’s the best way to do what I normally do in the classroom online?– Sincerely, 2002


Best eLearning: At Worst


Best eLearning: At Best


That’s SO 2012…


• What’s the best way to do what I normally do in the classroom online?– Sincerely, 2002

• What’s the best way to learn?– Sincerely, 2012


Minerva University


Rethinking:


Dealing With Larger Classes

• Teaching Assistants / Team Teaching• Group Evaluation Rubrics• Curriculum Integration• Gaming• Heavy Multimedia



Thank [email protected]

• @bordenj• http://jeffpresents.com

• http://innovation.saintleo.edu• http://insights.wired.com/profile/DrJeffBorden#axzz2UZ4cxP1R• http://pearsonlearningsolutions.com/blog/?s=jeff+borden&x=-

1066&y=-133 /

• To see the Short-Film “School of Thought” that Jeff wrote and produced: http://researchnetwork.pearson.com/sot

http://researchnetwork.pearson.com/sot

http://researchnetwork.pearson.com/sot

Documents

Http://innovation.saintleo.edu THE EFFECTS OF CLASS SIZE ON STUDENT SUCCESS AS DETERMINED BY COURSE COMPLETION AND COURSE PASS RATE Dr. Jeff D Borden