Current Climate Trends in the

Philippines

PAGASA - DOST

How’s The Climate Changing In The Philippines?

• In the Philippines, there are already trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.

• Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been more frequent.

Observed 24-hour rainfall – 455mm

TY Reming (DURIAN) Nov 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

ORMOC FLASHFLOOD

November 1991

PANAON ISLAND FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2003

INFANTA & AURORA FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2004

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE

Feb 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.

Typhoon Durian [Reming]

Nov. 2006

Typhoon “Frank”

June 2008

T. Storm Ketsana [Ondoy] &

Typhoon Parma [Pepeng]

Sept. and Oct. 2009

Storm surge in Manila Bay Typhoon Pedring & Quiel (Sept 2011)

Floodings due to storm surge

generated by Typhoon Pedring.

Floodings

in Central

Luzon

T. STORM TS SENDONG

Dec 2011

CDO & ILIGAN

TRENDS: -Temperature

-Rainfall Intensity -Tropical Cyclones

0.648

almost 3 times increase in maximum

temperatures

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Hot days).

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Warm nights)

Trend in the frequency with Maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cool Days

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cold nights

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Num

ber o

f Tro

pica

l Cyc

lone

s

Year

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PARPeriod: 1948-2010

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Five-year running mean

Linear (Five-year running mean)

)

17 13 9 1134

48

126 130111

7144 3610 6 9 18

30

46

80 6777

88

87

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Num

ber o

f Tro

pica

lCyc

lone

s

Number of Landfalling TC's

Number of non-Landfalling TC's

Monthly

Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4

1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010

18.5 20.5 20.4 19.8 18.3 18.4

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

Nu

mb

er o

f

Tro

pic

al

Cy

clo

ne

s

10 years Mean No. of T.C.

Comparison of 10-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines

1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 2001-2010

19.8 20.2 19.5 18.8

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

Nu

mb

er o

f T

ro

pic

al

Cy

clo

ne

s

30 years Mean

No. of T.C.

Comparison of 30-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines

1981-2010

Neutral Year

El Niño Year La Niña Year

Tracks during ENSO and

None-ENSO

1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010

Neutral 101 106 87 108 79 100

El Niño 25 40 35 48 57 60

La Niña 59 59 82 42 47 24

Total 185 205 204 198 183 184

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

No.

of T

c

Decadal Number of Tropical cyclones by ENSO Category (1948-2010)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Nuetral 9 13 16 17 37 53 114 114 82 62 63 35

El Nino 4 0 1 3 7 22 50 40 50 34 32 22

La Nina 14 6 2 10 17 16 43 47 55 62 41 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120N

o. o

f Tc

Monthly number of Tropical cyclone by Category (1948-2010)

(9TCs) 1987

(10TCs) 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f T

C

Year

Number of Extreme Typhoons Iin the PAR (with maximum sustain winds of 150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2009

Nuetral year

El Niño year

La Niña year

TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Nu

mb

er 51-80

61-90

71-00

LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO

19

51

-80

19

61

-90

19

71

-00

Trends in the Number of TC

Extreme Climate variability (ENSO of 2010)

Rainfall Maps

Dec. 2009

Oct. 2009

Nov. 2009

Sept. 2009

Jan. 2010

Mar. 2010

Feb. 2010

Black areas: Excessive rains

Red areas: rainfall deficit

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Rain

fall

Amou

nt (m

m)

Rainfall Anomaly in ManilaPeriod: 1865-2009 (departure from 1971 to 2000 normal values)

Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)

5 yr moving ave

Linear (5 yr moving ave)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009

Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila

y = 0.02x + 26.516

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

Mea

n Tem

pera

ture

(°C)

YEAR

Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Manila (1901 - 2009)

Annual Mean Temperature

5-year moving average

Linear (5-year moving average)

An increase of 2.18 C from 1901-2009 (109 years)

1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009

Manila 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

Tem

pe

aru

tre

°C

Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila

• Over the last 60years (1951 to 2010), the average (mean) annual temperature in the Philippines has risen by about 0.648 °C.

• There is significant increase in the number of hot days and warm nights and decreasing trend in the number of cold days and cold nights.

• Overall, no evident increase or decrease of annual rainfall observed in the Philippines, but;

– increasing trend in the frequency of extreme rainfall events,

– increasing trend in the intensity of extreme rainfall.

• The mean number of tropical cyclones during the last two decades (1991-2000 & 2000-2010) have been less compared to past decades.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

0001 > AMANG / TD / 2011 / 040312 to 040412

0002 > BEBENG / TS / 2011 / 050612 to 051100

0003 > CHEDENG / TY / 2011 / 052218 to 052806

0004 > DODONG / TS / 2011 / 060900 to 061000

0005 > EGAY / TS / 2011 / 061618 to 062006

0006 > FALCON / TS / 2011 / 062100 to 062418

0007 > GORING / TD / 2011 / 070906 to 071000

0008 > HANNA / TD / 2011 / 071506 to 071600

0009 > INENG / TY / 2011 / 071703 to 071712

0010 > JUANING / TS / 2011 / 072500 to 072800

0011 > KABAYAN / TY / 2011 / 072806 to 080418

0012 > LANDO / TD / 2011 / 073106 to 080106

0013 > MINA / TY / 2011 / 082112 to 082912

0014 > NONOY / TS / 2011 / 090800 to 090818

0015 > ONYOK / TD / 2011 / 091206 to 091300

0016 > PEDRING / TY / 2011 / 092406 to 092806

0017 > QUIEL / TY / 2011 / 092818 to 100212

0018 > RAMON / TS / 2011 / 101000 to 101400

0019 > SENDONG / TS / 2011 / 121500 to 121812

Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines (1948-2005)

Northern Luzon is

most frequently hit

by tropical

cyclones followed

by Catanduanes

and Northern

Samar and least in

the Mindanao area.

Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)