How robust are scarcity inductions? Undertaking well ... · Stephen Antonoplis Stephen Baum Arianna Benedetti Derek Brown Belinda Carillo Paul Connor Kristin Donnelly Monica Ellwood-Lowe

How robust are scarcity inductions?Undertaking well-powered replicationsof a systematic sample of the literature

Ruthe Foushee, on behalf of:

Psychology & Economics of Poverty Convening University of California, Berkeley · 17 May, 2019

Stephen Antonoplis Stephen Baum Arianna Benedetti Derek Brown Belinda Carillo

Paul Connor Kristin Donnelly Monica Ellwood-Lowe Rachel Jansen Shoshana Jarvis

Ryan Lundell-Creagh Joseph Ocampo Gold Okafor Zahra Rahmani Azad Michael Rosenblum

Andrew Choi Derek Schatz Daniel Stein Yilu Wang

Michael O’Donnell Leif Nelson Don Moore

“Reproducibility & Open Science”

graduate seminar ~ 20 students

empirical review of a particular literature

ubiased, replicable procedure

“Reproducibility & Open Science”

graduate seminar ~ 20 students

empirical review of a particular literature

ubiased, replicable procedure

Psychological Effects of Scarcity

Stephen Antonoplis Stephen Baum Arianna Benedetti Derek Brown Belinda Carillo

Paul Connor Kristin Donnelly Monica Ellwood-Lowe Rachel Jansen Shoshana Jarvis

Ryan Lundell-Creagh Joseph Ocampo Gold Okafor Zahra Rahmani Azad Michael Rosenblum

Andrew Choi Derek Schatz Daniel Stein Yilu Wang

Michael O’Donnell Leif Nelson Don Moore

how to define topic?

Shah, Mullainathan, & Shafir (2012)



1. similar mechanisms across resources




2. scarcity shifts attention




2. scarcity shifts attention

3. scarcity impedes cognitive function

defining the topic…


defining the topic…Using Behavioural Insights to Argue for a Stronger Social Safety Net: Beyond Libertarian Paternalism Toward Narrative Theory: Interventions for Reinforcer Pathology in Health Behavior Study design for a clinical trial to examine food price elasticity among participants in federal food assistance programs: A laboratory-based grocery store study THE VIEW FROM THE INSIDE OF POVERTY Rethinking HIV prevention to prepare for oral PrEP implementation for young African women Decision-Making and Socioeconomic Disparities in Colonoscopy Screening in African Americans Explaining the performance of contract farming in Ghana: The role of self-efficacy and social capital Testing strategies to increase saving in individual development account programs Socioeconomic status and learning from financial information How Do the Middle Class and the Poor Grow Apart? An Empirical Test of the Psychological Well-Being Pathway in Middle -Income Countries Individuals, interactions and institutions: How economic inequality affects organizations Food insecurity as a driver of obesity in humans: The insurance hypothesis Does the Information Age Free Consumers from Asymmetric Information or Enslave Them in Attention Poverty? The continued risks of unsecured public Wi-Fi and why users keep using it: Evidence from Japan Experimental scarcity increases the relative reinforcing value of food in food insecure adults Physically Scarce (vs. Enriched) Environments Decrease the Ability to Tell Lies Successfully Increasing anti-malaria bednet take-up using information and distribution strategies: evidence from a field trial in Senegal Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday Seeing the Destination AND the Path: Using Identity-Based Motivation to Understand and Reduce Racial Disparities in Academic Achievement Social Dominance Theory: Explorations in the Psychology of Oppression Food Insecurity and Body Mass Index: A Longitudinal Mixed Methods Study, Chelsea, Massachusetts, 2009-2013 MONEY IN THE MENTAL LIVES OF THE POOR DECIDING BY DEFAULT Intrayear Household Income Dynamics and Adolescent School Behavior The Effects of Financial Inclusion on Children's Schooling, and Parental Aspirations and Expectations On the Psychology of Scarcity: When Reminders of Resource Scarcity Promote Selfish (and Generous) Behavior Expense Neglect in Forecasting Personal Finances Survival under Uncertainty: An Introduction to Probability Models of Social Structure and Evolution Stuck in Time: Negative Income Shock Constricts the Temporal Window of Valuation Spanning the Future and the Past No food for thought: moderating effects of delay discounting and future time perspective on the relation between income and food insecurity Reasoning under Scarcity Emergency Saving and Household Hardship Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence Emotional Well-Being Related to Time Pressure, Impediment to Goal Progress, and Stress-Related Symptoms The paradox of resource availability and the perception o resource adequacy: the roles of psychological capital, perceived stress and age in the innovation process Do renters skimp on energy efficiency during economic recessions? Evidence from Northeast Scotland Biobehavioral Factors That Shape Nutrition in Low-Income Populations: A Narrative Review Introduction to special issue on behavioral consumer finance Consumer creativity influenced by hope, integral emotions and socio-economic status Behavioral Economics and Public Policy: A Pragmatic Perspective On the psychology of poverty Towards a multidimensional poverty index for Germany Unpacking the Inequality Paradox: The Psychological Roots of Inequality and Social Class Did They Earn It? Observing Unearned Luxury Consumption Decreases Brand Attitude When Observers Value Fairness Economic Context and HIV Vulnerability in Adolescents and Young Adults Living in Urban Slums in Kenya: A Qualitative Analysis Based on Scarcity Theory Romancing the home: emotions and the interactional creation of demand in the housing market A Components Based Model of Socio-Economic Status and Foundational Executive Function Poor is pious: Distinctiveness threat increases glorification of poverty among the poor Relating to Self and Other: Mindfulness Predicts Compassionate and Self-Image Relationship Goals Leveraging Psychological Insights to Encourage the Responsible Use of Consumer Debt Why Do Defaults Affect Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan Perceived family economic hardship and student engagement among junior high schoolers in Ghana WORK-LIFE IDEOLOGIES: THE CONTEXTUAL BASIS AND CONSEQUENCES OF BELIEFS ABOUT WORK AND LIFE Personality Traits, Income, and Economic Ideology Scarcity Polarizes Preferences: The Impact on Choice Among Multiple Items in a Product Class IS THE CREDIT WORTH IT? FOR-PROFIT LENDERS IN MICROFINANCE WITH RATIONAL AND BEHAVIORAL BORROWERS Relationship Between Poverty and Mortality in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus BEHAVIORAL DESIGN: A NEW APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT POLICY The Social Ladder: A Rank-Based Perspective on Social Class . POVERTY AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC EDUCATION SPENDING: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL Adult Age Differences in Decision Making Across Domains: Increased Discounting of Social and Health-Related Rewards In search of behavioural and social levers for effective social housing retrofit programs The EARN-Health Trial: protocol for a randomised controlled trial to identify health effects of a financial savings programme among low-income US adults Ecology and the Tragedy of the Commons Can a temporary financial assistance scheme prevent a transition into poverty among individuals who experienced a life event crisis? Making Every Resource Count: The Impact of Resource Scarcity on the Preference of Utilitarian Commentary: Poverty impedes cognitive function and The poor's poor mental power Effects of Perceived Scarcity on Financial Decision Making Program Knowledge and Racial Disparities in Savings Outcomes in a Child Development Account Experiment Structural and individualistic theories of poverty The CFPB and Payday Lending: New Agency/Old Problem Economic scarcity alters the perception of race Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015 Living in the Now: Decision-Making and Delay Discounting in Adolescent Gamblers The Price of Financial Precarity: Organizational Costs of Employees' Financial Concerns The Paradox of Access Justice, and Its Application to Mandatory Arbitration The Burden of Home Buying While Black or Latino Framed field experiment on resource scarcity & extraction: Path-dependent generosity within sequential water appropriation Self-control: Knowledge or perishable resource? SAVINGS BY AND FOR THE POOR: A RESEARCH REVIEW AND AGENDA Borrowing Capacity and Financial Decisions of Low-to-Moderate Income First-Time Homebuyers Do Tax-Time Savings Deposits Reduce Hardship Among Low-Income Filers? A Propensity Score Analysis The benefits of adding a brief measure of simple reaction time to the assessment of executive function skills in early childhood Cash vs. in-kind transfers: Indian data meets theory It's Now Or Never! Using Deadlines as Nudges Status-Based Identity: A Conceptual Approach Integrating the Social Psychological Study of Socioeconomic Status and Identity Adolescents' Perceptions of the Economy: Its Association with Academic Engagement and the Role of School-Based and Parental Relationships Implications of Scarcity The reasoning criminal vs. Homer Simpson: conceptual challenges for crime science It's Not Like I'm Poor: How Working Families Make Ends Meet in a Postwelfare World An opportunity for self-replication The existential cost of economic insecurity: Threatened financial security undercuts meaning Female sex workers use power over their day-to-day lives to meet the condition of a conditional cash transfer intervention to incentivize safe sex Linking Diverse Resources to Action Control Studying, Measuring and Manipulating Social Class in Social Psychology: Economic, Symbolic and Cultural Approaches Effects of the Great Recession on Child Development Evidence for Opportunity Cost Neglect in the Poor Socioeconomic disparities in academic achievement: A multi-modal investigation of neural mechanisms in children and adolescents I'm not hoarding, I'm just stocking up before the hoarders get here. Behavioral causes of phantom ordering in supply chains Resource scarcity and antisocial behavior A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism Effects of informational nudges on consumer debt repayment behaviors The Positive Adjustment of Low-Income Youths With Relational and Community Support: The Mediating Role of Hope Strengths, altered investment, risk management, and other elaborations on the behavioural constellation of deprivation Behavioral Interventions to Increase Tax-Time Saving: Evidence from a National Randomized Trial Time Discounting and Credit Market Access in a Large-Scale Cash Transfer Programme Scarcity Frames Value Reframing the ordinary: Imagining time as scarce increases well-being The Benefits of Home Buying While Black or Latino Search deterrence in experimental consumer goods markets Exposure to Poverty and Productivity Leaving Poverty Behind? The Effects of Generous Income Support Paired with Activation Shifting The Open Enrollment Period For ACA Marketplaces Could Increase Enrollment And Improve Plan Choices Stress and Coping among Black Women Employed in Non-professional Service and Professional Occupations in Florida and Georgia A Self-Regulatory Model of Resource Scarcity Responding to the Drought: A Spatial Statistical Approach to Investigating Residential Water Consumption in Fresno, California Overearning The next step towards more equity in health in Sweden: how can we close the gap in a generation? Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals Poverty traps, convergence, and the dynamics of household income Green nudges: Do they work? Are they ethical? The high cost of low wages: Economic scarcity effects in organizations Costs on the Mind: The Influence of the Financial Burden of College on Academic Performance and Cognitive Functioning OLDER PERSONS' CARE-RELATED PREFERENCES Cultural and Cross-Cultural Influences Spending on Daughters versus Sons in Economic Recessions Social class & risk preferences and behavior Education and Job-Based Interventions for Unmarried Couples Living With Low Incomes: Benefit or Burden? Mindfulness and sustainability Simplifying care: when is the treatment burden too much for patients living in poverty? Should Governments Invest More in Nudging? In Search of the High Road: Meaning and Evidence Research through provocation: a structured prototyping tool using interaction attributes of time, space and information Economic strain and support in couple: The mediating role of positive emotions Consumer Decision Making in the Information Age Links Between Chronic Illness and Late-Life Cognition: Evidence From Four Latin American Countries The Dark Side of Scarcity Promotions: How Exposure to Limited-Quantity Promotions Can Induce Aggression In Harm'sWay? Payday Loan Access and Military Personnel Performance Exogenous degradation in the commons: Field experimental evidence A protection motivation explanation of base-of-pyramid consumers' environmental sustainability Creating Financial Capability in the Next Generation: An Introduction to the Special Issue The self-care dilemma of type 2 diabetic patients: The mechanism of self-regulation resource depletion The Role of Middle-Class Status in Payday Loan Borrowing: A Multivariate Approach The rich are easily offended by unfairness: Wealth triggers spiteful rejection of unfair offers Squeezed: Coping with Constraint through Efficiency and Prioritization Managing Cultural Diversity Without a Clearly Defined Cultural Identity: The Ultimate Challenge Cheap promises: Evidence from loan repayment pledges in an online experiment Wagering the future: Cognitive distortions, impulsivity, delay discounting, and time perspective in adolescent gambling Social class and identity-based motivation Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function POVERTY AND CIVIL RIGHTS: A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS PERSPECTIVE Financial literacy and high-cost borrowing: Exploring the mechanism


Using Behavioural Insights to Argue for a Stronger Social Safety Net: Beyond Libertarian Paternalism Toward Narrative Theory: Interventions for Reinforcer Pathology in Health Behavior Study design for a clinical trial to examine food price elasticity among participants in federal food assistance programs: A laboratory-based grocery store study THE VIEW FROM THE INSIDE OF POVERTY Rethinking HIV prevention to prepare for oral PrEP implementation for young African women Decision-Making and Socioeconomic Disparities in Colonoscopy Screening in African Americans Explaining the performance of contract farming in Ghana: The role of self-efficacy and social capital Testing strategies to increase saving in individual development account programs Socioeconomic status and learning from financial information How Do the Middle Class and the Poor Grow Apart? An Empirical Test of the Psychological Well-Being Pathway in Middle -Income Countries Individuals, interactions and institutions: How economic inequality affects organizations Food insecurity as a driver of obesity in humans: The insurance hypothesis Does the Information Age Free Consumers from Asymmetric Information or Enslave Them in Attention Poverty? The continued risks of unsecured public Wi-Fi and why users keep using it: Evidence from Japan Experimental scarcity increases the relative reinforcing value of food in food insecure adults Physically Scarce (vs. Enriched) Environments Decrease the Ability to Tell Lies Successfully Increasing anti-malaria bednet take-up using information and distribution strategies: evidence from a field trial in Senegal Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday Seeing the Destination AND the Path: Using Identity-Based Motivation to Understand and Reduce Racial Disparities in Academic Achievement Social Dominance Theory: Explorations in the Psychology of Oppression Food Insecurity and Body Mass Index: A Longitudinal Mixed Methods Study, Chelsea, Massachusetts, 2009-2013 MONEY IN THE MENTAL LIVES OF THE POOR DECIDING BY DEFAULT Intrayear Household Income Dynamics and Adolescent School Behavior The Effects of Financial Inclusion on Children's Schooling, and Parental Aspirations and Expectations On the Psychology of Scarcity: When Reminders of Resource Scarcity Promote Selfish (and Generous) Behavior Expense Neglect in Forecasting Personal Finances Survival under Uncertainty: An Introduction to Probability Models of Social Structure and Evolution Stuck in Time: Negative Income Shock Constricts the Temporal Window of Valuation Spanning the Future and the Past No food for thought: moderating effects of delay discounting and future time perspective on the relation between income and food insecurity Reasoning under Scarcity Emergency Saving and Household Hardship Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence Emotional Well-Being Related to Time Pressure, Impediment to Goal Progress, and Stress-Related Symptoms The paradox of resource availability and the perception o resource adequacy: the roles of psychological capital, perceived stress and age in the innovation process Do renters skimp on energy efficiency during economic recessions? Evidence from Northeast Scotland Biobehavioral Factors That Shape Nutrition in Low-Income Populations: A Narrative Review Introduction to special issue on behavioral consumer finance Consumer creativity influenced by hope, integral emotions and socio-economic status Behavioral Economics and Public Policy: A Pragmatic Perspective On the psychology of poverty Towards a multidimensional poverty index for Germany Unpacking the Inequality Paradox: The Psychological Roots of Inequality and Social Class Did They Earn It? Observing Unearned Luxury Consumption Decreases Brand Attitude When Observers Value Fairness Economic Context and HIV Vulnerability in Adolescents and Young Adults Living in Urban Slums in Kenya: A Qualitative Analysis Based on Scarcity Theory Romancing the home: emotions and the interactional creation of demand in the housing market A Components Based Model of Socio-Economic Status and Foundational Executive Function Poor is pious: Distinctiveness threat increases glorification of poverty among the poor Relating to Self and Other: Mindfulness Predicts Compassionate and Self-Image Relationship Goals Leveraging Psychological Insights to Encourage the Responsible Use of Consumer Debt Why Do Defaults Affect Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan Perceived family economic hardship and student engagement among junior high schoolers in Ghana WORK-LIFE IDEOLOGIES: THE CONTEXTUAL BASIS AND CONSEQUENCES OF BELIEFS ABOUT WORK AND LIFE Personality Traits, Income, and Economic Ideology Scarcity Polarizes Preferences: The Impact on Choice Among Multiple Items in a Product Class IS THE CREDIT WORTH IT? FOR-PROFIT LENDERS IN MICROFINANCE WITH RATIONAL AND BEHAVIORAL BORROWERS Relationship Between Poverty and Mortality in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus BEHAVIORAL DESIGN: A NEW APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT POLICY The Social Ladder: A Rank-Based Perspective on Social Class . POVERTY AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC EDUCATION SPENDING: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL Adult Age Differences in Decision Making Across Domains: Increased Discounting of Social and Health-Related Rewards In search of behavioural and social levers for effective social housing retrofit programs The EARN-Health Trial: protocol for a randomised controlled trial to identify health effects of a financial savings programme among low-income US adults Ecology and the Tragedy of the Commons Can a temporary financial assistance scheme prevent a transition into poverty among individuals who experienced a life event crisis? Making Every Resource Count: The Impact of Resource Scarcity on the Preference of Utilitarian Commentary: Poverty impedes cognitive function and The poor's poor mental power Effects of Perceived Scarcity on Financial Decision Making Program Knowledge and Racial Disparities in Savings Outcomes in a Child Development Account Experiment Structural and individualistic theories of poverty The CFPB and Payday Lending: New Agency/Old Problem Economic scarcity alters the perception of race Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015 Living in the Now: Decision-Making and Delay Discounting in Adolescent Gamblers The Price of Financial Precarity: Organizational Costs of Employees' Financial Concerns The Paradox of Access Justice, and Its Application to Mandatory Arbitration The Burden of Home Buying While Black or Latino Framed field experiment on resource scarcity & extraction: Path-dependent generosity within sequential water appropriation Self-control: Knowledge or perishable resource? SAVINGS BY AND FOR THE POOR: A RESEARCH REVIEW AND AGENDA Borrowing Capacity and Financial Decisions of Low-to-Moderate Income First-Time Homebuyers Do Tax-Time Savings Deposits Reduce Hardship Among Low-Income Filers? A Propensity Score Analysis The benefits of adding a brief measure of simple reaction time to the assessment of executive function skills in early childhood Cash vs. in-kind transfers: Indian data meets theory It's Now Or Never! Using Deadlines as Nudges Status-Based Identity: A Conceptual Approach Integrating the Social Psychological Study of Socioeconomic Status and Identity Adolescents' Perceptions of the Economy: Its Association with Academic Engagement and the Role of School-Based and Parental Relationships Implications of Scarcity The reasoning criminal vs. Homer Simpson: conceptual challenges for crime science It's Not Like I'm Poor: How Working Families Make Ends Meet in a Postwelfare World An opportunity for self-replication The existential cost of economic insecurity: Threatened financial security undercuts meaning Female sex workers use power over their day-to-day lives to meet the condition of a conditional cash transfer intervention to incentivize safe sex Linking Diverse Resources to Action Control Studying, Measuring and Manipulating Social Class in Social Psychology: Economic, Symbolic and Cultural Approaches Effects of the Great Recession on Child Development Evidence for Opportunity Cost Neglect in the Poor Socioeconomic disparities in academic achievement: A multi-modal investigation of neural mechanisms in children and adolescents I'm not hoarding, I'm just stocking up before the hoarders get here. Behavioral causes of phantom ordering in supply chains Resource scarcity and antisocial behavior A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism Effects of informational nudges on consumer debt repayment behaviors The Positive Adjustment of Low-Income Youths With Relational and Community Support: The Mediating Role of Hope Strengths, altered investment, risk management, and other elaborations on the behavioural constellation of deprivation Behavioral Interventions to Increase Tax-Time Saving: Evidence from a National Randomized Trial Time Discounting and Credit Market Access in a Large-Scale Cash Transfer Programme Scarcity Frames Value Reframing the ordinary: Imagining time as scarce increases well-being The Benefits of Home Buying While Black or Latino Search deterrence in experimental consumer goods markets Exposure to Poverty and Productivity Leaving Poverty Behind? The Effects of Generous Income Support Paired with Activation Shifting The Open Enrollment Period For ACA Marketplaces Could Increase Enrollment And Improve Plan Choices Stress and Coping among Black Women Employed in Non-professional Service and Professional Occupations in Florida and Georgia A Self-Regulatory Model of Resource Scarcity Responding to the Drought: A Spatial Statistical Approach to Investigating Residential Water Consumption in Fresno, California Overearning The next step towards more equity in health in Sweden: how can we close the gap in a generation? Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals Poverty traps, convergence, and the dynamics of household income Green nudges: Do they work? Are they ethical? The high cost of low wages: Economic scarcity effects in organizations Costs on the Mind: The Influence of the Financial Burden of College on Academic Performance and Cognitive Functioning OLDER PERSONS' CARE-RELATED PREFERENCES Cultural and Cross-Cultural Influences Spending on Daughters versus Sons in Economic Recessions Social class & risk preferences and behavior Education and Job-Based Interventions for Unmarried Couples Living With Low Incomes: Benefit or Burden? Mindfulness and sustainability Simplifying care: when is the treatment burden too much for patients living in poverty? Should Governments Invest More in Nudging? In Search of the High Road: Meaning and Evidence Research through provocation: a structured prototyping tool using interaction attributes of time, space and information Economic strain and support in couple: The mediating role of positive emotions Consumer Decision Making in the Information Age Links Between Chronic Illness and Late-Life Cognition: Evidence From Four Latin American Countries The Dark Side of Scarcity Promotions: How Exposure to Limited-Quantity Promotions Can Induce Aggression In Harm'sWay? Payday Loan Access and Military Personnel Performance Exogenous degradation in the commons: Field experimental evidence A protection motivation explanation of base-of-pyramid consumers' environmental sustainability Creating Financial Capability in the Next Generation: An Introduction to the Special Issue The self-care dilemma of type 2 diabetic patients: The mechanism of self-regulation resource depletion The Role of Middle-Class Status in Payday Loan Borrowing: A Multivariate Approach The rich are easily offended by unfairness: Wealth triggers spiteful rejection of unfair offers Squeezed: Coping with Constraint through Efficiency and Prioritization Managing Cultural Diversity Without a Clearly Defined Cultural Identity: The Ultimate Challenge Cheap promises: Evidence from loan repayment pledges in an online experiment Wagering the future: Cognitive distortions, impulsivity, delay discounting, and time perspective in adolescent gambling Social class and identity-based motivation Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function POVERTY AND CIVIL RIGHTS: A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS PERSPECTIVE Financial literacy and high-cost borrowing: Exploring the mechanism

Are there experiments?

Are they about scarcity?

Can we replicate them online?

which ones do we replicate?

ExperimentalQuasiexperimental

PRIMING e.g., think of a time…

RESOURCE ALLOCATION e.g., guesses in game

BETWEEN-SUBJECTS e.g., income

WITHIN-SUBJECTS e.g., pre/post harvest


BETWEEN-SUBJECTS e.g., income

WITHIN-SUBJECTS e.g., pre/post harvest

PRIMING e.g., think of a time…

RESOURCE ALLOCATION e.g., guesses in game

Shah et al. (2018). Money in the mental lives of the poor. Soc Cognition — Study 3

Cook & Sadeghein (2017). Effects of perceived scarcity on financial decision making. J Public Policy Mark — Study 3

Monga et al. (2018). Eliciting time versus money: Time scarcity underlies asymmetric wage rates. J Consum Res — Study 3

Lee et al. (2018). Did they earn it? Observing unearned luxury consumption decreases brand attitude when observers value fairness. J Consum Psych — Study 4

Plantinga et al. (2018). Evidence for opportunity cost neglect in the poor. J Behav Dec Making — Study 3

Tully et al. (2015). Seeking lasting enjoyment with limited money: Financial constraints increase preference for material goods over experiences. J Consum Res — Study 5

Mani et al. (2013). Poverty impedes cognitive function. Science — Study 2

Fernbach et al. (2014). Squeezed: Coping with constraint through efficiency and prioritization. J Consum Res — Study 2

Roux et al. (2015). On the psychology of scarcity: When reminders of resource scarcity promote selfish (and generous) behavior. J Consum Res — Study 4

Bickel et al. (2016). Stuck in time: Negative income shock constricts the temporal window of valuation spanning the future and the past. Plos One — Study 1

Chou et al. (2016). Economic insecurity increases physical pain. Psych Science — Study 3

Zhu & Ratner (2015). Scarcity polarizes preferences: The impact on choice among multiple items in a product class. J Mark Res — Study 2

Layous et al. (2018). Reframing the ordinary: Imagining time as scarce increases well-being. J Positive Psych — Study 1

Kristofferson et al. (2017). The dark side of scarcity promotions: How exposure to limited-quantity promotions can induce aggression. J Consum Res —Study 5

Mehta & Zhu (2015). Creating when you have less: The impact of resource scarcity on product use creativity. J Consum Res — Study 5

Durant et al. (2015). Spending on daughters versus sons in economic recessions. J Consum Res — Study 4

Shah et al. (2015). Scarcity frames value. Psych Science — Study 6

Emery et al. (2015). Knowing who you are and adding to it: Reduced self-concept clarity predicts reduced self-expansion. Soc Psych Pers Sci — Study 3

Abeyta et al. (2017). The existential cost of economic insecurity: Threatened financial security undercuts meaning. J Soc Psych — Study 2

Camererer et al. (2018). Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. Nat Hum Beh — Study 1 of Shah et al. (2012, Science)

data collectionAmazon’s Mechanical Turk, U.S. IP-addresses

2.5x original sample size (Simonsohn, 2017)

Batched by manipulation 1. financial constraints/economic hardship specific to the individual 2. general economic downturn/depression 3. scarcity (explicit manipulation of the perceived availability of non-monetary resources) 20 experiments; > 12,000 total responses

effects of scarcity on…consumer choices

intrusive thoughts

self-expansion

Raven’s matrices

delay discounting

sense of meaning in life

resource allocation

perception of time

wellbeing

cognitive fatigue

loan amount

creativity

planning

productivity


intrusive thoughts

self-expansion

Raven’s matrices

delay discounting


resource allocation

perception of time

wellbeing

cognitive fatigue

loan amount

creativity

planning

productivity


Are poorer people more likely to spontaneously consider opportunity costs than people who are rich?



H1: The effect of reminding participants of opportunity costs will be smaller for participants with lower incomes.




H2: Participants with lower incomes will find it easier to generate alternative uses of the money.

Opportunity Cost Control

Imagine that a new movie came out that is showing tonight. This movie is your preferred genre, with your favorite actor/actress. A movie ticket costs

$8.50. What would you do in this situation?





Buy a movie ticket

Keep the $8.50 for other purchases

Buy a movie ticket

Not buy a movie ticket




Buy a movie ticket


Buy a movie ticket


Which other alternative uses of $8.50 would you consider when making this decision? Please

name the alternatives you would consider below, using a separate line for each alternative.




Buy a movie ticket


Buy a movie ticket


Which other alternative uses of $8.50 would you consider when making this decision? Please

name the alternatives you would consider below, using a separate line for each alternative.

How easy or hard was it for you to come up with the alternative uses of the $8.50?

1-Very Easy 2 3 4 5 6 7-Very Hard

participants1613 adults (56% female; Mage=36.58, SDage=12.20).

results1613 adults (56% female; Mage=36.58, SDage=12.20).


interaction between condition and income




decision to buy ~ condition + income + condition:income




decision to buy ~ condition + income + condition:income

effect of condition: OR = .60 [.48, .75] effect of income: OR = 1.01 [.95, 1.07] interaction: OR = 1.02 [.94, 1.11]

1613 adults (56% female; Mage=36.58, SDage=12.20).






+ correlation between income and difficulty



+ correlation between income and difficulty- correlation between income and number generated







average subjective difficulty: 2.96 [2.88, 3.05]

average number alternatives: 2.21 [2.11, 2.31]






r(594) p r p

easier? .09 [.01, .17]. 0.035 .026 [-0.02, 0.08] 0.308

more? .05 [-.03, .13] 0.244 .025 [-0.02, 0.08] 0.314

Plantinga et al., Study 3 Our replication




r(594) p r p

easier? .09 [.01, .17]. 0.035 .026 [-0.02, 0.08] 0.308

more? .05 [-.03, .13] 0.244 .025 [-0.02, 0.08] 0.314

Plantinga et al., Study 3 Our replication


intrusive thoughts

self-expansion

Raven’s matrices

delay discounting


resource allocation

perception of time

wellbeing

cognitive fatigue

loan amount

creativity

planning

productivity

Bickel et al. (2016). Stuck in time: Negative income shock constricts the temporal window of valuation spanning the future

and the past. Plos One — Study 1

H1: Imagining a negative income shock will increase people’s subsequent delay discounting, such that they value smaller amounts of money in the present over larger amounts of money in the future.

4 within-subject delay discounting conditions (Future Gain, Future Loss, Past Gain, Past Loss) x

3 between-subject scenarios (Negative Income Shock/Positive Income Shock/No Change) x

2 between-subject framing conditions (Explicit-zero/Non-zero)

Monica Ellwood-Lowe

Bickel et al. (2016) ̶ Study 1 results599 participants (Mage=28.61 years , SDage= 8.41)

Monica Ellwood-Lowe

our replication results1505 participants (Mage=37.77 years , SDage= = 12.35)

…no significant effect of scenario on participants’ discounting rate (all ps > 0.10) Monica Ellwood-Lowe

Bickel et al. η² lower upper0.097 0.053 0.1480.053 0.021 0.0920.091 0.049 0.1390.700 0.033 0.115

Monica Ellwood-Lowe

Replication η² lower upper0.001 -0.002 0.0060.001 -0.002 0.0060.003 -0.002 0.0100.001 -0.002 0.005

future gainfuture losspast gainpast loss

comparing effect sizes


intrusive thoughts

self-expansion

Raven’s matrices

delay discounting


resource allocation

perception of time

wellbeing

cognitive fatigue

loan amount

creativity

planning

productivity

Shah, Mullainathan, & Shafir (2012, Science)

Camerer et al. (2018, Nature Human Behavior)




Shah, Mullainathan, & Shafir (in press, J Economic Psychology)



Shah, Mullainathan, & Shafir (in press, Journal of Economic Psychology)

does scarcity increase cognitive fatigue?

Rich Poor


Rich Poor84 guesses (6/puzzle) 280 guesses (20/puzzle)

280 guesses (20/puzzle)84 guesses (6/puzzle)

Borro

w?

Yes

No


Rich Poor


Borro

w?

Yes

No


Rich Poor

+

Dots Mixed Attention Task



Rich Poor

>

+

Dots Mixed Attention Task

η2p

original resultswho? found? N Mrich

(SDrich)Mpoor

(SDpoor) statistic p

Shat et al. (2012 -

Science)

Scarcity-induced focus leads to cognitive

fatigue on subsequent cognitive control task

60 52.93 (12.79)

45.12 (15.87) F(1, 54) = 4.16 0.046 .072

[.001, .197]

Camerer et al. (2018 - Nature H

B)

no effect (opposite direction)

278 44.51 (13.84)

46.94 (14.19) F(1, 276) = 2.09 0.1498

Shah et al (in press -

J Econ Psych)


996 42.03 (15.38)

44.05 (15.93) F(1, 995) = 4.15 0.042 .004

[.000, .013]

Our replication

no effect (same direction

as original) 668 42.82

(5.87)41.56 (16.79) F(1,666) = .99 0.319

who? found? N Mrich (SDrich)

Mpoor (SDpoor) statistic p

Shat et al. (2012 -

Science)



60 52.93 (12.79)

45.12 (15.87) F(1, 54) = 4.16 0.046 .072

[.001, .197]


B)


278 44.51 (13.84)

46.94 (14.19) F(1, 276) = 2.09 0.1498


J Econ Psych)


996 42.03 (15.38)

44.05 (15.93) F(1, 995) = 4.15 0.042 .004

[.000, .013]

Our replication



(5.87)41.56 (16.79) F(1,666) = .99 0.319

η2p

further replications…



Shat et al. (2012 -

Science)



60 52.93 (12.79)

45.12 (15.87) F(1, 54) = 4.16 0.046 .072

[.001, .197]


B)


278 44.51 (13.84)

46.94 (14.19) F(1, 276) = 2.09 0.1498


J Econ Psych)

effect in opposite direction

996 42.03 (15.38)

44.05 (15.93) F(1, 995) = 4.15 0.042 .004

[.000, .013]

Our replication



(5.87)41.56 (16.79) F(1,666) = .99 0.319

η2p

further replications…



Shat et al. (2012 -

Science)



60 52.93 (12.79)

45.12 (15.87) F(1, 54) = 4.16 0.046 .072

[.001, .197]


B)


278 44.51 (13.84)

46.94 (14.19) F(1, 276) = 2.09 0.1498


J Econ Psych)

effect in opposite direction

996 42.03 (15.38)

44.05 (15.93) F(1, 995) = 4.15 0.042 .004

[.000, .013]

Our replication



(5.87)41.56 (16.79) F(1,666) = .99 0.319

η2p

…our replication

Rachel Jansen









































…too early to comment on overall results

what might we expect to find?

http://www.p-curve.com/app4/Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons (2014)

p-curve: distribution of p-values

http://www.p-curve.com/app4/


false positives, data-mining,

selective reporting = left skew






true effects = right skew







true effects = right skew

null effects = uniform


what might we expect to find?BASED ON P-CURVE


p-values here from a randomly-drawn sample of 16 experiments priming scarcity Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons (2014)

*

*




p-values here from a randomly-drawn sample of 16 experiments priming scarcity Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons (2014)

*

*

casts some doubt on our measurement, not necessarily our

theory



how are we measuring scarcity?

how are we measuring scarcity?

“reseacher degrees of freedom” (?)

—Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn (2011)

one way is income:

how are we analyzing income?income-to-needs

effective income

“food to mouths”

in/out of poverty

U.S. quintile

high/low income

“wealth”

incomehousehold

(10000) (personshousehold)

incomehousehold

poverty_line U.S.

?< poverty_lineU.S.

∈ quintile?U.S.

?< (incomesample_med)

log(income)

+ subjective wealth!Think of this ladder as representing where people stand in the U.S….

How would you describe your current financial situation?

How would you describe your ability to make ends meet? Do you feel your income adequately fulfills your needs and wants?


BETWEEN-SUBJECTS

WITHIN-SUBJECTS

PRIMING RESOURCE ALLOCATION


Plantinga et al., 2018 Shah et

al., 2012

Bickel et al., 2013

BETWEEN-SUBJECTS

WITHIN-SUBJECTS




al., 2012

Bickel et al., 2013

BETWEEN-SUBJECTS

WITHIN-SUBJECTS



Mani et al. (2013) Shah et al. (2015) ….


al., 2012

Bickel et al., 2013

BETWEEN-SUBJECTS

WITHIN-SUBJECTS


thanks!

funding from the Dean’s Office @

(bickel et al. scenarios)

Documents

How robust are scarcity inductions? Undertaking well ... · Stephen Antonoplis Stephen Baum Arianna Benedetti Derek Brown Belinda Carillo Paul Connor Kristin Donnelly Monica Ellwood-Lowe