Managing Enrollmentby Managing Merit

AidHow Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll

Jonathan JacobsDirector of Enrollment Management Research541-346-7406jsj@uoregon.edu

Aligning Financial Aid with Enrollment Goals

Our Primary Financial Aid goals:◦ Make UO affordable.◦ Decrease debt load.◦ Leverage existing federal/state aid.◦ Balance need-based and merit-based aid.

◦ Presented in an easily understood manner to students and parents.

What is the Impact?

40% Yield

Resident Admit4.0 HSGPA 60%

Go somewhere else

50% Yield

How much do we need to increase aid to increase yield 10%?

1. What effect does additional merit aid have on the probability of enrollment?

2. How do we model the effect of restructured aid on an entering class?

3. How do we make that model interactive so we can model different aid packages dynamically and instantly?

Research Questions

Modeling Population◦ Freshman Admits, fall 2011

Target Variable◦ BINARY: Student enrolls at the University in the

fall

Model Methodologies

1. Effect of Aid

Neural Network

Independent Variables◦ TOTAL GRANT AID (minus federal/state)◦ High School GPA◦ SAT or converted ACT◦ Admission to Honor’s College◦ Residency◦ Day application was submitted◦ First generation◦ Underrepresented race/ethnicity◦ (REMOVED) UO First on FAFSA (if before May 1)◦ Significant interactions

Independent Variables

Max-Rescaled R-square .25

C-statistic .77

Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test

.57

Scoring Population◦ All new entering freshmen, fall 2011

Probability of enrollment at different aid levels◦ 14 datasets scored through the same model

Example: Bob Apple. GPA: 3.91, SAT: 1110

2. Modeling Aid

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%

Probability of enrolling at the University of Oregon at different merit aid levels.

Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Group populations dynamically. Allow differing aid amounts.

3. Dynamic Modeling

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

15.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.6% 14.2% 14.7% 15.1% 15.6% 16.1% 16.7% 17.7% 19.4% 22.0% 26.0%

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%

Bob Apple, Resident, GPA 3.91, SAT 1110

Chris Coe, Nonresident, GPA 3.86 SAT 1070

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

23.3% 15.0% 15.2% 15.5% 15.9% 16.6% 17.9% 20.0% 23.3% 28.0% 34.4% 42.5% 51.8% 61.4%

Kerry Oki, Resident, GPA 4.04, SAT 1380

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=ORIG

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=0

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=1

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=2

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=3

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=4

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=5

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=6

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=7

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=8

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=9

Resident Merit Scholarship

1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT.Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Tier* High School GPA

SAT Score

Single Year Award

Tier 1 3.90 -- $2,000

Tier 2 3.80 -- $1,500

Tier 3 3.80 -- $1,200

Tier 4 3.70 -- $1,000

*Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review process. An additional Dean’s Access grant of $1,000 is awarded to resident students with demonstrated need.

High School GPA

SAT Score

Single Year Award

Summit 3.80 1200 $5,000

Apex 3.65 1150 $3,000

Existing Dean’s Award

New Merit Program

less than 1000 1000-1090 1100-1190 1200-1290 1300+$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$260,664.00

$340,699.00

$459,932.00

$352,834.00$396,699.00

$0.00 $0.00

$724,000.00

$885,000.00

$1,113,000.00

Distribution of Awards to Admitted Students

Total Award Outlay to Residents by SAT band, 2011 Cohort

Dean's Award Actuals

New Merit AwardProjections

Tota

l Outlay

($ in

mill

ions)

Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Nonresident Merit Scholarship

1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT.Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Tier* High School GPA

SAT Score

Single Year Award

Tier 1 4.00 -- $7,000

Tier 2 3.80 -- $6,000

Tier 3 3.70 -- $5,000

Tier 4 3.50 -- $4,000

*Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review process.

High School GPA

SAT Score

Single Year Award

Summit 3.80 1200 $8,000

Apex 3.65 1150 $4,000

Existing Dean’s Award

New Merit Program

Dean Award New Merit Award Dean Award New Merit Award0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4952

641 651

462$1.81

$2.72

$3.62

$2.96

Award Comparison of Aid ProgramsFall 2011 Cohort

Number of Awards Total Expenditure

Nu

mb

er

of

Recip

ien

ts

Tota

l Exp

en

dit

ure

s (

$ in

million

s)

Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Residents Nonresidents

Additional Cost of New Financial Aid Program +$179K (+3.2%)

Increase to Total Resident Awards 50% ($1.8M to $2.7M)

Additional “Summit” Students Enrolled(3.80 HS GPA, 1200 SAT) (Includes nonres)

+129 (+24%)

Enrollment of students with Less Than a 3.00 High School GPA -97 (-77%)

Average High School GPA 3.62 (+0.05 point improvement over model using actual awards)

Average SAT 1123 (+34 point improvement over model using actual awards)

The model shows a net increase of 106 admits enrolling due to reallocating and increasing aid. Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Benefits of the New Merit AwardAssuming the same 2011 Admit Pool

Elasticity of Demand

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

33.9% 35.4% 37.2% 39.2% 41.6%44.4%

47.7%51.5%

55.8%

Probability of Enrollment at Different Levels of AidResidents, 3.8 HSGPA or higher, 1200 SAT or higher

3.3 point increase to yield.10% persuaded by aid90% already coming

10.5 point increase to yield.

30% persuaded by aid70% already coming

Managing Enrollmentby Managing Merit

AidHow Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll

Jonathan JacobsDirector of Enrollment Management Research541-346-7406jsj@uoregon.edu