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Housing market reportAustralian Capital City Market ReportPrepared June 2013
Dr Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
2
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.au
Strong autumn launching pad for higher winter activity
Housing market report
April retail sales were also positive rising by 0.2 percent over the month as consumer confidence lifted on the back of lower interest rates.
Latest economic growth figures for Australia had the economy growing by 0.6 percent over the March quarter to be up by a moderate 2.6 percent over the year.
The stockmarket has however weakened over recent weeks following a solid revival through most of 2013, which may prove a negative for prestige markets, particularly in Sydney, where buyer activity in that sector has remain relatively subdued.
Although Australia’s economic performance remains under watch, buyer activity in most housing markets continues to grow, with the normally quieter winter selling season well-positioned for a solid performance on the back of rising buyer momentum through autumn.
Australia’s capital city housing markets have generally concluded a strong autumn selling season, particularly the major cities of Sydney and Melbourne.
Although the Reserve Bank has elected to leave interest rates on hold over June, the stimulus effect of historically low mortgage rates continues to be a significant driver of market activity.
The lower dollar will provide a lift to those export-enhanced local economies, particularly in regard to the mining and tourism industries.
The federal budget has forecast falling economic growth and rising unemployment over the next year, which will provide headwinds for housing markets where local economies are underperforming.
Despite these predictions, latest unemployment data for April was encouraging, falling from 5.6 percent over March to 5.5 percent.
National overview
National | June 2013
Houses
Units
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
Oct
05
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
Median prices, national
source: APM
Cash rate
0
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
May
91
May
92
May
93
May
95
May
96
May
97
May
98
May
99
May
00
May
01
May
02
May
03
May
04
May
05
May
06
May
07
May
08
May
09
May
10
May
11
May
12
May
13
source: RBA
HousesMedian price Quarterly change Yearly change
Sydney $672,763 1.5% 3.5%
Melbourne $539,078 3.1% 3.2%
Brisbane $437,435 -0.5% 0.3%
Adelaide $432,951 0.1% 0.1%
Perth $595,609 3.2% 6.7%
Canberra $580,229 2.5% 7.1%
Gold Coast $460,000 0.0% 2.2%
National $554,410 1.7% 3.3%
Median prices: 3 months to end April 2013
UnitsMedian price Quarterly change Yearly change
$478,401 0.3% 2.1%
$405,224 4.1% 2.2%
$348,130 -1.7% -6.4%
$281,033 -0.7% -0.4%
$405,547 0.4% -0.6%
$378,003 0.2% 3.3%
$370,000 2.9% -5.4%
$421,354 0.9% 1.1%
3
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.auSydney | June 2013
Housing market report
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
WestQoQ: +1.1%YoY: +4.7%
WestQoQ: +1.4%YoY: +2.9%
Upper NorthQoQ: +4.9%YoY: +5.0%
Upper NorthQoQ: -3.6%YoY: -0.9%
Northern BeachesQoQ: -0.5%YoY: +6.1%
Northern BeachesQoQ: -1.2%YoY: +0.6%
Lower NorthQoQ: +4.8%YoY: +5.1%
Lower NorthQoQ: +2.8%YoY: +4.2%Can-
BankstownQoQ: +0.9%YoY: +7.4%
Can- BankstownQoQ: -2.3%YoY: +6.3%
Inner WestQoQ: +6.6%YoY: +6.6%
Inner WestQoQ: +0.9%YoY: +0.6%
SouthQoQ: +2.0%YoY: +2.7%
SouthQoQ: -0.9%YoY: +3.5%
City & EastQoQ: +2.7%YoY: +3.5%
City & EastQoQ: 0.0%YoY: +0.8%
South WestQoQ: +3.5%YoY: +6.2%
South WestQoQ: -1.8%YoY: +4.7%
Median price change by region (units)Median price change by region (houses)
Quick statsAuction clearance rate
Average days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
68%
78
5.6%
28k
55%
88
6.6%
-16.8%
6.4%
-12.9%
57%
81
May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
Sydney
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Nov
05
May
06
Nov
06
May
07
Nov
07
May
08
Nov
08
May
09
Nov
09
May
10
Nov
10
May
11
Nov
11
May
12
Nov
12
May
13
Auction clearance rates, Sydney*
Houses
Units
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
$700k
Oct
05
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
Median prices, Sydney
source: APM
The Sydney housing market continued to strengthen through May with auction clearance rates rising to near-record levels. The auction clearance rate for units of 74.9 percent was second only to the 76.3 percent recorded in May 2002. Similarly, the auction clearance rate for houses of 65.3 percent was the fourth highest May recorded over the last 23 years, behind only 2001, 2002 and 2003.
Sydney is now clearly the best performing local economy, with an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent in April, the lowest of all the major capitals. Other leading indicators of economic activity such as retail sales, also position Sydney as a leading economic performer.
Investors and mid-range upgraders are currently highly active in Sydney, with both the first home buyer market and the prestige market remaining relatively subdued. Sydney’s inner west region and upper north shore remain particularly popular with buyers.
4
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.auMelbourne | June 2013
Quick statsAuction clearance rate
Average days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
70%
97
7.0%
44k
57%
91
7.6%
-2.8%
6.5%
34.2%
64%
74
May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
Melbourne
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
North EastQoQ: +2.1%YoY: +4.1%
North EastQoQ: +11.1%YoY: +6.7%
Inner EastQoQ: +8.3%YoY: +3.7%
Inner EastQoQ: +8.6%YoY: +3.1%
Outer EastQoQ: +5.5%YoY: +6.4%
Outer EastQoQ: +9.9%YoY: +0.9%
InnerQoQ: +8.4%YoY: +7.4%
Inner QoQ: +3.2%YoY: -0.4%
WestQoQ: +4.4%YoY: +5.7%
WestQoQ: -5.1%YoY: -7.7%
NorthQoQ: +7.3%YoY: +3.5%
NorthQoQ: -0.4%YoY: -3.0%
South EastQoQ: +2.6%YoY: +4.0%
South EastQoQ: +3.5%YoY: +3.5%
Inner SouthQoQ: +4.9%YoY: +2.1%
Inner SouthQoQ: +14.3%YoY: +7.5%
Median price change by region (houses) Median price change by region (units)
Auction clearance rates, Melbourne*
Houses
Units
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
Oct
05
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
1340%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Nov
05
May
06
Nov
06
May
07
Nov
07
May
08
Nov
08
May
09
Nov
09
May
10
Nov
10
May
11
Nov
11
May
12
Nov
12
May
13
Median prices, Melbourne
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions source: APM
Melbourne’s housing market has risen since the Easter holiday period, with auction clearance rates on the rise over April and May. Auction listing numbers also rose over this period, with more than 700 extra properties offered for auction compared to the same period a year ago. This indicates that seller-confidence is on the rise in a market that continues to perform at three-year highs.
The Melbourne market has been sustained by upper-price, inner-city home sales, although a more general pattern of buyer activity is emerging. Middle-ring, mid-price range suburbs, particularly to the east of the city, have attracted increased buyer activity.
Changes to the first home owners grant, announced by the local state government, will impact on the Melbourne market, as buyers rush to take advantage of the grant for established home purchases before it expires on the 30th June.
The local Melbourne economy does however remain under a cloud, with the announcement of job cuts, particularly in the manufacturing industry, contributing to the highest unemployment rate of the mainland capitals, which was at 6.2 percent in April.
Housing market report
5
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.auBrisbane | June 2013
Quick statsAuction clearance rate
Average days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
43%
118
7.0%
27k
31%
126
8.4%
0.4%
7.6%
12.3%
33%
97
May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
Brisbane
Syd
Mel
b
Bris
Ade Per
Can Dar
Hob Nat
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Gross rental yield by city, March 2013
Houses
Units
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
Oct
05
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
Median prices, Brisbane
source: APMsource: APM, houses only
Positive signs continue to emerge that the nascent recovery in the Brisbane housing market, evident over the past year, may be sustained.
The Brisbane economy now appears to be back in town, with a sharp fall in the local unemployment rate over April, falling from 6.3 percent to just 5.1 percent. It is no coincidence that the rise in Brisbane’s unemployment rate over 2012 provided a significant impediment to housing market confidence and buyer activity in that city.
Buyer activity remains solid in Brisbane’s established middle-ring suburbs to the north and west of the city. Redland City is also proving popular with Brisbane buyers. First home buyers remain subdued; however investors are increasingly recognising the potential of Brisbane, with its high yields and plenty of upside for capital growth.
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
CabooltureQoQ: -4.3%YoY: -5.0%
CabooltureQoQ: -14.5%YoY: -19.5%
NW InnerQoQ: -4.7%YoY: +0.3%
NW InnerQoQ: -2.5%YoY: -4.1%
InnerQoQ: +3.5%YoY: +4.6%
InnerQoQ: -2.0%YoY: -4.1%
NW Outer QoQ: -3.4%YoY: 0.0%
Pine RiversQoQ: +1.0%YoY: +2.8%
Pine RiversQoQ: -20.9%YoY: -17.8%
RedlandQoQ: +0.4%YoY: +3.9%
RedlandQoQ: 0.0%YoY: +1.3%
LoganQoQ: -0.8%YoY: -2.2%
LoganQoQ: -29.8%YoY: -41.7%
SE InnerQoQ: +0.9%YoY: +0.9%
SE InnerQoQ: 0.0%YoY: -10.6%
SE OuterQoQ: -1.1%YoY: +1.1%
SE OuterQoQ: +6.3%YoY: +5.2%
NW OuterQoQ: -1.7%YoY: -8.7%
IpswichQoQ: +2.6%YoY: +2.6%
IpswichQoQ: -5.0%YoY: -15.0%
Median price change by region (houses) Median price change by region (units)
Housing market report
6
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.auAdelaide | June 2013
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
NorthQoQ: -0.8%YoY: +1.6%
NorthQoQ: -3.1%YoY: +3.7%
EastQoQ: +1.4%YoY: +1.1%
EastQoQ: +0.9%YoY: +5.4%
WestQoQ: +0.5%YoY: +1.7%
WestQoQ: -3.2%YoY: -1.5%
SouthQoQ: +0.3%YoY: +4.4%
SouthQoQ: -0.3%YoY: -3.4%
Median price change by region (houses) Median price change by region (units)
Quick statsAverage days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
112
6.5%
12k
144
7.9%
-1.6%
6.6%
19.4%
111May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
Adelaide
Syd
Mel
b
Bris
Ade Per
Hob Dar
Can
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Unemployment rate, by state April 2013
Houses
Units
$100k
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500kO
ct 0
5
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
Median prices, Adelaide
source: APM
source: ABS
Buyer activity in Adelaide remains subdued, reflecting the nature of the underperforming local economy where unemployment over April remained seemingly intractably high at 6.1 percent.
Some positive signs from ABS home loan data for Adelaide, with the number of owner-occupied loans approved in South Australia up by 3.5 percent over the first 3 months of this year, compared to the same period last year.
Housing market report
7
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.auPerth | June 2013
The Perth housing market can be expected to continue its upward trajectory of growth, with median prices to be at record levels sooner rather than later in 2013. First home buyers remain active in the market motivated by the tight rental market and steeply rising rents. However, signs are beginning to emerge of strains on the local economy from the record levels of new arrivals, particularly given the apparent topping out of the resources boom. Perth’s unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent over April - the highest monthly level recorded for three years.
Quick statsAverage days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
94
4.6%
23k
109
6.5%
1.5%
7.4%
9.3%
102May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
Perth
source: APM
Perth
National
$350
$370
$390
$410
$430
$450
$470
$490
$510
Mar
09
Jun
09
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11
Sep
11
Dec
11
Mar
12
Jun
12
Sep
12
Dec
12
Median weekly asking rent, houses March 2013
Houses
Units
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
Oct
05
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
Median prices, Perth
source: APM
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
NorthQoQ: +3.9%YoY: +8.2%
CentralQoQ: -3.9%YoY: +6.5%
South EastQoQ: +2.1%YoY: +7.8%
EastQoQ: +2.1%YoY: +7.9%
South WestQoQ: +1.2%YoY: +3.2%
Median price change by region (units)Median price change by region (houses)
NorthQoQ: -2.7%YoY: 0.0%
CentralQoQ: -1.5%YoY: -0.5%
South EastQoQ: +10.2%YoY: +15.1%
EastQoQ: +1.9%YoY: +6.0%
South WestQoQ: +1.3%YoY: +0.1%
Housing market report
8
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.auCanberra | June 2013
The Canberra housing market continues to tread water, weighed down by a faltering local economy and concerns about public sector job shedding, due to a deteriorating federal budget. Prices growth is expected to remain subdued as a consequence, with the April unemployment rate at 4.7 percent, the highest April rate recorded in the ABS series for the city, and well ahead of the 2.9 percent recorded over April the year before.
Quick statsAverage days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
72
3.8%
1.9k
89
5.5%
13.8%
4.9%
41.0%
69May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
Canberra
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
BelconnenQoQ: +1.1%YoY: +2.3%
BelconnenQoQ: +5.6%YoY: +7.6%
GungahlinQoQ: +1.9%YoY: +7.0%
GungahlinQoQ: +10.0%YoY: +1.3%
NorthQoQ: +2.0%YoY: -0.8%
NorthQoQ: -7.9%YoY: -6.3%
SouthQoQ: +12.5%YoY: +3.1%
SouthQoQ: -13.1%YoY: -7.2%
Woden ValleyQoQ: -5.3%YoY: -0.1%
Woden ValleyQoQ: -9.3%YoY: -5.9%
TuggeranongQoQ: +1.4%YoY: +2.5%
TuggeranongQoQ: +4.6%YoY: +3.9%
Median price change by region (units)Median price change by region (houses)
Unemployment rate, ACT Median prices, Canberra
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Sep
12
Apr
13
Houses
Units
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
Oct
05
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
source: APMsource: ABS
Housing market report
1300 799 109 | domain.com.au
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
Gold Coast | June 2013
Copyright Australian Property Monitors. Any reproduction of or reference to any part of this report must attribute Australian Property Monitors as the source.
Quick statsAverage days on market
Average discount
Stock on market
159
9.0%
10k
183
11.9%
-17.2%
9.7%
-9.5%
134May 2013
May 2013
May 2013
12 months ago
12 months ago
Change 12 months ago
Long-termtrend
Long-termtrend
Change long-termtrend
The Gold Coast remains on track for a modest revival in buyer activity, following a prolonged period of subdued activity, similar to other major housing markets in South-East Queensland that tend to move in sync.
The performance of the local economy remains a concern however, with the latest April unemployment rate at 6.5 percent, well ahead of Brisbane at 5.1 percent, and the Sunshine Coast at 3.7 percent.
Gold Coast
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April 2013.
Gold Coast WestQoQ: 0.0%YoY: +1.1%
Gold Coast EastQoQ: -1.2%YoY: -13.5%
Gold Coast WestQoQ: +1.9%YoY: +5.7%
Gold Coast EastQoQ: +6.3%YoY: -0.1%
Median price change by region (units)Median price change by region (houses)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Nov
05
May
06
Nov
06
May
07
Nov
07
May
08
Nov
08
May
09
Nov
09
May
10
Nov
10
May
11
Nov
11
May
12
Nov
12
May
13
Average days on market, Gold Coast
Houses
Units
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600kO
ct 0
5
Apr
06
Oct
06
Apr
07
Oct
07
Apr
08
Oct
08
Apr
09
Oct
09
Apr
10
Oct
10
Apr
11
Oct
11
Apr
12
Oct
12
Apr
13
Median prices, Gold Coast
source: APMsource: APM
Housing market report
10
Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
1300 799 109 | domain.com.au
Hobart’s housing market remains subdued, reflecting the ongoing impact of a weak local economy. Hobart’s unemployment rate over April was 6.8 percent, and remains the highest of all the capitals, with no real indication of an improvement in the near-term despite low interest rates.
The housing market continues to bump along the bottom, with Tasmanian owner-occupier loans, for the March quarter, up just 1.3 percent compared to the same period last year.
Data contained in this report is subject to revision as a result of time lags with the reporting and collection of sales transaction data. This monthly housing market report is produced for and used by both APM and Domain.
Darwin remains a housing market on the move, driven by an influx of workers and a shortage of accommodation, pushing up rents and prices. The latest unemployment data indicates that, similar to Perth, the Territory is having issues absorbing new job seekers, with a rate of 5.4 percent – the highest monthly rate recorded for over 5 years.
Hobart Darwin
Hobart and Darwin | June 2013
Housing market report