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10/06/2014
1
Shifting horizons for global trade
2014 IGCGRAINSCONFERENCE
Special Presentation:Climate change and global food security
Special Presentation:Climate change and global food security
Mark Rosegrant, Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
09/06/2014
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Climate Change and Global Food Security: Challenges and Policy Responses
Mark W. Rosegrant
Director
Environment and Production Technology Division
2014 International Grains Council (IGC) Conference "Shifting Horizons for Global Trade" London, United KingdomJune 10, 2014
Outline
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Scenario Modeling Methodology Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Adaptation Costs Conclusions and Policy Responses
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Supply drivers• Climate change• Water and land scarcity• Investment in agricultural
research• Science and technology policy
― Discovery, development, delivery― Intellectual property rights,
regulatory systems, extension http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/btcotton_rice.jpg
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040721/har.jpg
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Demand drivers• Population growth: 9 billion people in
2050• Urbanization: 2008 = 50% urban; 2050 =
78% • Income growth: Africa rising• Oil prices• Biofuels and bioenergy• GHG mitigation and carbon • sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity
http://www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s=obj&objectid=101492
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security Rapid income growth and urbanization ‐effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed
• Half of growth in grain demand will be for • livestock• Intense pressure on land and water (highly water‐intensive diet)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(282678968).jpg
Scenario Modeling Methodology
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Climate Change Model Components
GCM climate scenarios• Multiple GCM using IPCC SRES A1B scenario, downscaled
temperature and rainfall
DSSAT crop model• Biophysical crop response to temperature and
precipitation
IMPACT• Global economic food supply demand model to 2050
with global hydrology and water simulation by river basin
Crop model (DSSAT) linked with Global Partial Equilibrium Agriculture Sector Model (IMPACT)
DSSAT
Climate variables (temperature precipitation)
Corresponding geographically
differentiated yield effects
IMPACT
Food demand, area, yield and production
World food prices and trade
Food security and nutrition
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Climate Change Impacts
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Rice: Impact of climate change in 2050
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐10.5%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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Rainfed Rice: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐16.1 %
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Wheat: Impact of climate change in 2050
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐8.1%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
09/06/2014
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Rainfed Wheat: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: ‐15.5%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)
Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wheat Maize Rice
2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 12 % decline in developing countries
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
South Asia East Asia andPacific
Europe andCentral Asia
Latin Americaand Caribbean
Middle East andNorth Africa
Sub SaharanAfrica
kCal/Cap
ita/day
2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 10% increase in developing countries
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
South Asia East Asia andPacific
Europe andCentral Asia
Latin Americaand Caribbean
Middle Eastand NorthAfrica
Sub SaharanAfrica
Millions of Child
ren
2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
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Climate Change Adaptation Costs Estimated in IMPACT Model
Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change
What types of investments considered?• Agricultural research• Irrigation expansion and efficiency
improvements• Rural roads
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Adaptation Costs are Large
Required additional annual expenditure: US$7.1‐$7.3 billion
Regional level• Sub‐Saharan Africa ‐ 40% of the total, mainly for rural roads• South Asia ‐ US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency
• Latin America and Caribbean ‐ US$1.2 billion per year, research
• East Asia and the Pacific ‐ $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency
Conclusions and Policy Responses
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Building Climate Smart Agricultural and Food Systems
1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for productivity growth
2. Promote complementary policies and investments
3. Reform economic policies
1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D for smallholder productivity
Invest in technologies for Crop and livestock breeding
• High‐yielding varieties• Biotic‐ and abiotic‐stress resistant varieties
Modernize crop water productivity breeding programs in developing countries through provision of genomics, high throughput gene‐sequencing, bio‐informatics and computer
GMOs where genetic variation does not exist in the crop • Nitrogen use efficiency• Drought, heat and salinity tolerance• Insect and disease resistance
Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)
Source: ASTI 2012
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2. Promote Complementary Policies and Investments
Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation Increase access to high‐value supply chains and markets e.g.
fruits, vegetables, and milk
Regulatory reform: Reduce hurdles to approval and release of new cultivars and technologies
• Remove impediments (e.g. restrictive “notified” crop lists, excessive testing and certification requirements, foreign investment barriers, ad hoc biosafety decision‐making)
Extension of farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, precision agriculture
3. Reform Economic Policies
Support open trading regimes to share climate risk
Use market‐based approaches to manage water and environmental services combined with secure property rights
Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels
• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies
• Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and income