Higher PopulationHigher Population

Topic two: Topic two: Population CensusPopulation Census

Counting the PeopleCounting the People

Counting the peopleCounting the people

Nearly all countries produce Nearly all countries produce demographic datademographic data

Counting people is expensive and Counting people is expensive and time consumingtime consuming

Information is vital for planning Information is vital for planning resources, education, employment, resources, education, employment, housing and other Government housing and other Government servicesservices

Methods of countingMethods of counting

Vital registrationVital registration CensusCensus Sample Survey (10% of the Sample Survey (10% of the

population)population)

Civil RegistrationCivil Registration

Death certificateDeath certificate

Benefits and problems of Benefits and problems of vital registrationvital registration

Regularly updatedRegularly updated Population monitored at local levelPopulation monitored at local level No account for migrationNo account for migration

CensusCensus

A ten yearly count of all the people A ten yearly count of all the people in a countryin a country

The most accurate method of The most accurate method of population countpopulation count

Records a variety of social, health Records a variety of social, health and economic informationand economic information

Problems with CensusProblems with Census

Very expensive and time consumingVery expensive and time consuming Low literacy in Developing Countries Low literacy in Developing Countries

means extra enumeratorsmeans extra enumerators Difficult terrain and poor Difficult terrain and poor

communicationscommunications

Problems with censusProblems with census

Different LanguagesDifferent Languages Political instabilityPolitical instability MigrationMigration WarWar Distrust of what figures are used for.Distrust of what figures are used for.

ExamplesExamples Nomads in the Sahara cross bordersNomads in the Sahara cross borders India’s 1 billion people speak 15 languages. India’s 1 billion people speak 15 languages.

India required 1.7 million enumerators in India required 1.7 million enumerators in 19911991

Illegal immigrants, I.e Mexicans in USAIllegal immigrants, I.e Mexicans in USA Ethnic tensions I.e Nigeria had rivalry Ethnic tensions I.e Nigeria had rivalry

between North and Southbetween North and South China has one child policy- females not China has one child policy- females not

registeredregistered Rural – urban migration I.e. 300 families Rural – urban migration I.e. 300 families

migrate into Mumbai (Bombay) dailymigrate into Mumbai (Bombay) daily

Topic three: Topic three: Population ChangePopulation Change

Global population growthGlobal population growth

At present, the world's population is growing fast - though this has At present, the world's population is growing fast - though this has not always been the case.not always been the case.

Until the 1800s the world's population grew steadily but slowly for Until the 1800s the world's population grew steadily but slowly for thousands of years.thousands of years.

In 1820 the world's population reached one billion.In 1820 the world's population reached one billion.

150 years later, in the early 1970s, the world's population reached 150 years later, in the early 1970s, the world's population reached three billion.three billion.

In 1999, less than 30 years later, the population doubled to six In 1999, less than 30 years later, the population doubled to six billion.billion.

The global rate of population growth is now very fast (rising by The global rate of population growth is now very fast (rising by about one billion every 15 years). about one billion every 15 years).

BBC Video

The population of any place changes over time. There are three main causes of population change:

Births - usually measured using the birth rate (number of live births per 1000 of the population)

Deaths - usually measured using the death rate (number of deaths per 1000 of the population)

Migration - the movement of people in and out of an area

Rate of change

Births and deaths are natural causes of population change. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a country or place is called the natural increase, and you calculate the natural increase by subtracting the death rate per 1000 population from the birth rate per 1000 population:

natural increase = birth rate - death rate.

The rate of natural increase or growth rate of a population is given as a percentage, calculated by dividing the natural increase by 10.

If for example the birth rate / 1000 pop = 14, and the death rate / 1000 pop = 8, then

growth rate = 14 - 8 = 6 / 1000, or 0.6%.

Have a look at the birth and death rates for Have a look at the birth and death rates for BulgariaBulgaria. The birth . The birth rate is 9/1000 and death rate is 14/1000. The birth rate is less rate is 9/1000 and death rate is 14/1000. The birth rate is less than the death rate which gives Bulgaria a than the death rate which gives Bulgaria a declining populationdeclining population..

Now look at the figures for Now look at the figures for South AfricaSouth Africa. The birth rate is . The birth rate is 25/1000 and death rate is 15/1000. South Africa has an 25/1000 and death rate is 15/1000. South Africa has an increasing populationincreasing population with a population-growth rate of 1. with a population-growth rate of 1.

EMDCs

ELDCs

Topic four:Topic four: Demographic Transition Model Demographic Transition Model

Intro Video

Web link

The The demographic transition model shows population change over shows population change over time. The model studies how birth rate and death rate affect the time. The model studies how birth rate and death rate affect the total population of a country. It is divided into four stages:total population of a country. It is divided into four stages:

Stage one Stage one - the total population is low but it is - the total population is low but it is balanced due to due to high birth rates and high death rates. high birth rates and high death rates.

Stage two Stage two - the total population is starting to rise as death - the total population is starting to rise as death rates start to fall, but birth rates remain quite high. rates start to fall, but birth rates remain quite high.

Stage three Stage three - the total population is still rising rapidly, but the - the total population is still rising rapidly, but the gap between birth and death rates narrows. Now the gap between birth and death rates narrows. Now the natural natural increaseincrease is high. is high.

Stage fourStage four - the total population is high, but it is balanced due - the total population is high, but it is balanced due to a low birth rate and a low death rate. to a low birth rate and a low death rate.

Topic five: Implications of Topic five: Implications of Population changePopulation change

As we have seen already different parts ofAs we have seen already different parts of

the world have wide variations in population.the world have wide variations in population.

Throughout history the population of statesThroughout history the population of states

has varied for many different reasons.has varied for many different reasons.

Population change is highly dynamic, andPopulation change is highly dynamic, and

depends on changes in fertility, mortality depends on changes in fertility, mortality andand

migration.migration.

Components of Components of Population ChangePopulation Change

Fertility and mortalityFertility and mortality

Components of Population Components of Population ChangeChange

Immigrants

Emigrants

Births

Deaths

ChangesChanges

Natural Change : Natural increase Natural Change : Natural increase when births exceed deaths, Natural when births exceed deaths, Natural Decrease when deaths exceed birthsDecrease when deaths exceed births

Migration : Movement of peopleMigration : Movement of people

Fertility and mortalityFertility and mortality

Birth rate = No of births per Birth rate = No of births per thousand peoplethousand people

Death rate = No of deaths per Death rate = No of deaths per thousand peoplethousand people

These figures allow comparison These figures allow comparison between countriesbetween countries

Fertility RatesFertility Rates

Children are used as workersChildren are used as workers Children can look after old relativesChildren can look after old relatives High child mortality rateHigh child mortality rate Social and religious reasonsSocial and religious reasons

How can governments How can governments influence population influence population

change?change?

Various governments have Various governments have attempted to influence population attempted to influence population change by adopting pro-natalist change by adopting pro-natalist policies or anti-natalist policiespolicies or anti-natalist policies

Pro-Natalist (AIM: To increase in Pro-Natalist (AIM: To increase in BR)BR)

Promoted beforePromoted before

World War Two byWorld War Two by

states such as Italy,states such as Italy,

France and Germany, France and Germany,

partly to compensate forpartly to compensate for

the loss of many soldersthe loss of many solders

and civilians duringand civilians during

World War one and alsoWorld War one and also

for economic and militaryfor economic and military

reasons.reasons.

Nazi Germany is an extreme exampleof a pro-natalist policy.

•The Nazi regime suppressed information regarding contraception.

•Taxed unmarried couples.

•Prosecuted people for having abortions

Anti-Natalist Policy (AIM: to reduce the BR)Anti-Natalist Policy (AIM: to reduce the BR)

China launched its one China launched its one child policy in 1979.child policy in 1979.

Women where forced Women where forced to have abortionsto have abortions

Massive contraception Massive contraception campaigns where campaigns where wagedwaged

Early marriages where Early marriages where discourageddiscouraged

Food and clothing Food and clothing rations were withheld.rations were withheld.

“Little Emperors”

Many baby girls are abandoned inorphanages

Topic six: Population Topic six: Population PyramidsPyramids

Be able to describe and Be able to describe and explain the population of a explain the population of a

countrycountry

POPULATION STRUCTUREThe population pyramid displays the age

and sex structure of a country or given area

Population inFive Year

Age bands

Usually, but not always,In % to make for easier

comparisonsbetween countries

OLD DEPENDANTS

ECONOMICALLYACTIVE

YOUNG DEPENDANTS

FEMALESTo the rightMALES

To the left

What Population Pyramids Show Us

KEY

slope of pyramid indicate the death rate

width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate

proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations

height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)

"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past

area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of differentpopulation age groups or different sex on one graph

The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

Economically More Developed Country

Economically LessDeveloped Country

Population Pyramids related to the Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Both birth rates andDeath rates areHigh, so populationgrowth rates are slow but populationIs usually restoredDue to high birth Rate. Short lifeExpectancy

EXAMPLESScotland before 1760New GuineaRemote parts ofAmazonia

Population startsto grow at anexponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age.Life expectancy risesInfant mortality rate falls.

EXAMPLES

Scotland 1760 - 1830Republic of Congo

Population continuesto grow but at slowerrate. Low C Death Rate.Dramatically decliningCrude Birth Rate.

EXAMPLESScotland 1870 -1950Algeria, TunisiaMorocco

IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS

Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death RateHigher dependancy ratioand longer life expectancyCrude Death Rate does Rise slightly because ofThe ageing population

EXAMPLES

Scotland today.Japan, USA

There is some merit in including or considering a Stage 5 today with a declining population

Developing CountryDeveloping Country

World Population pyramids

Developed Population Developed Population StructureStructure

Narrow base, low birth rate, birth Narrow base, low birth rate, birth controlcontrol

Constant Width, low infant Constant Width, low infant mortality mortality

Doesn’t narrow until age 70, high Doesn’t narrow until age 70, high life expectancylife expectancy

Developing Population Developing Population StructureStructure

Wide base, high birth rateWide base, high birth rate Narrows quickly, high infant Narrows quickly, high infant

mortalitymortality Narrow above 50, low life Narrow above 50, low life

expectancyexpectancy

MigrationMigration

The movement of peopleThe movement of people

Push Pull

Soil Erosion

War

Famine

Drought, floods or other natural disasters

Unemployment

Jobs

Education and healthcareBright lights

Climate

New Opportunity

Reasons for migrationsReasons for migrations

PoliticalPolitical

SocialSocial

EconomicEconomic

EnvironmentalEnvironmental

Voluntary or ForcedVoluntary or Forced A voluntary migration involves A voluntary migration involves

people wanting to go I.e. migrants people wanting to go I.e. migrants leaving U.K for Australia or Turks leaving U.K for Australia or Turks going to work in Germanygoing to work in Germany

These are usually due to economic These are usually due to economic and social factorsand social factors

Comparison of standard of Comparison of standard of living in Turkey and living in Turkey and

GermanyGermany GNP £134 per GNP £134 per

capitacapita 5% employed in 5% employed in

manufacturingmanufacturing 230 per 1000 230 per 1000

infant mortalityinfant mortality Natural increase Natural increase

27%27%

GNP £891 per GNP £891 per capitacapita

35% employed in 35% employed in manufacturingmanufacturing

50 per 1000 infant 50 per 1000 infant mortalitymortality

Natural increase Natural increase 6%6%

Voluntary Migration, Voluntary Migration, Turks to Germany, Turks to Germany,

Push FactorsPush Factors Difficult hot climateDifficult hot climate Unemployment largely due to Unemployment largely due to

mechanisationmechanisation Low wagesLow wages Natural Disasters (Earthquakes)Natural Disasters (Earthquakes) Poverty, most farming on steepPoverty, most farming on steep

Slopes with poor soilSlopes with poor soil Mainly males of working age migrated

Voluntary Migration, Turks to Voluntary Migration, Turks to Germany, Pull FactorsGermany, Pull Factors

High WagesHigh Wages EducationEducation Political StabilityPolitical Stability Job ProspectsJob Prospects

Effects on GermanyEffects on Germany

PositivePositive Gastarbeiters did menial jobsGastarbeiters did menial jobs Solved employment shortagesSolved employment shortages Enriched cultureEnriched culture NegativeNegative DiscriminationDiscrimination Language difficultiesLanguage difficulties Housing shortagesHousing shortages Difficult to repatriateDifficult to repatriate

Effects on TurkeyEffects on Turkey

PositivePositive Relieved unemploymentRelieved unemployment Foreign CurrencyForeign Currency New SkillsNew Skills Less crowdingLess crowding NegativeNegative Brain DrainBrain Drain Lack of male workersLack of male workers Social ProblemsSocial Problems Damaged Turkish EconomyDamaged Turkish Economy

Forced MigrationsForced Migrations People are forced to leave an area often People are forced to leave an area often

on fear of deathon fear of death SlaverySlavery War in Kosovo, Rwanda and Bosnia I.e. War in Kosovo, Rwanda and Bosnia I.e.

Ethnic Cleansing. Jews in Nazi GermanyEthnic Cleansing. Jews in Nazi Germany Famine in EthiopiaFamine in Ethiopia Political Refugees, People having to flee Political Refugees, People having to flee

a country because of political beliefs : a country because of political beliefs : ZimbabweZimbabwe

Forced MigrationForced Migration Major forced migrations in the 1980s and Major forced migrations in the 1980s and

1990s are Rwanda, Afghanistan, Bosnia, 1990s are Rwanda, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Kosovo and Chechnya. And more recenlty Kosovo and Chechnya. And more recenlty from Dafur in Sudan and Iraq and from Dafur in Sudan and Iraq and AfghanistanAfghanistan

UNHCR estimated 21 million in 2007UNHCR estimated 21 million in 2007

A refugee is defined as “someone who has a A refugee is defined as “someone who has a well founded fear of being persecuted for well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion or political belief”reasons of race, religion or political belief”

RefugeesRefugees

Mixed migration I.e. not age or sex Mixed migration I.e. not age or sex selectiveselective

Refugees experience loss of relatives Refugees experience loss of relatives and property and experience hostility and property and experience hostility in receiving countryin receiving country

Consequences of migrationConsequences of migration

Refugees can add to local problems Refugees can add to local problems such as food shortage. They can such as food shortage. They can bring diseasebring disease

Resentment from localsResentment from locals Environmental problems caused by Environmental problems caused by

influx of peopleinflux of people

                                            

Answer these questionsAnswer these questions

What is the difference between What is the difference between voluntary and forced migrationvoluntary and forced migration

For a named example of each For a named example of each describe the push and the pull factorsdescribe the push and the pull factors

For each example describe the effects For each example describe the effects on the donor and the host country.on the donor and the host country.

Explain why migrants often do not Explain why migrants often do not want to leave their new country.want to leave their new country.