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The Design Portfolio of Nate Hegyi, divided into two sections: Publications & Reports, and Posters
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FIVE YEAR COMPREHENSIVE ALCOHOL ABUSE REPORTTHE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
AUGUST 2011
Evaluation of Implementation and Outcomes: Montana Strategic Prevention Framework – State Improvement Grant and the Montana Community Change Project
August 2011
Final Report
Stephen Seninger, Ph. D.Principal Investigator and Director of Analysis and EvaluationDaphne Herling, MSWDirector of Community ProcessEvaluation and Coordinator/Facilitatorof Epidemiological Workgroup
REPORT FOR The Strategic Prevention Framework - State Incentive Grant
This project is funded under a contract with the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services. Statements and conclusions in this report do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department
ECONOMIC
BUREAU OFBUSINESS
RESEARCHAND
2011 TRANSPLAN SURVEYTHE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
AUGUST 2011
2011 TranPlan 21 Public Involvement Survey
VOLUME IREPORT
SUBMITTED BYBureau of Business and Economic ResearchThe University of Montana–MissoulaSeptember 2011
THE STATE OF MONTANA MANUFACTURINGMONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY MONTANA MANUFACTURING EXTENSION CENTER, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
MAY 2011
WINNERASSOCIATION FOR UNIVERSITY BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH EXCELLENCE IN PUBLICATIONS AWARD, 2011
2011 Edition
The State of
Montana Manufacturing
BYPaul Polzin, Emeritus DirectorBureau of Business and Economic ResearchThe University of MontanaMissoula, MT 59812
ECONOMIC
BUREAU OFBUSINESS
RESEARCHAND
6The State of Montana Manufacturing
Table 2Gross Domestic Product (GDP), United States(Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars)
Year Gross Domestic Product Manufacturing Percent
of Total
1997 9,847,068 1,186,481 12.01998 10,275,885 1,245,770 12.11999 10,767,451 1,312,715 12.22000 11,223,130 1,396,514 12.42001 11,364,239 1,332,119 11.72002 11,560,341 1,365,339 11.82003 11,807,823 1,404,830 11.92004 12,212,645 1,517,861 12.42005 12,554,538 1,568,037 12.52006 12,895,854 1,636,594 12.72007 13,144,067 1,690,414 12.92008 13,101,207 1,608,640 12.32009 12,781,190 1,469,701 11.5
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manufacturing and the U.S. Economy
Manufacturing continues as a major component of the U.S. economy, but many of the trends depend crucially on
the data chosen to measure them. This section looks at manufacturing as measured by real GDP (which represents real output and production) and finds that it has grown over the past decade and remained a stable component of the U.S. economy. Later sections of this report will look at manufacturing employment and labor income and different trends will emerge.
Price adjusted GDP for manufacturing and all industries is presented in Table 2. Manufacturing GDP rose from $1.2 trillion (2005$) in 1997 to $1.5 trillion (2005$) in 2009, an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent per year. This average growth rate rises to about 3.6 if the two years of decline in 2008 and 2009 are eliminated.
Manufacturing’s share of GDP remained relatively stable at about 12 percent between 1997 and 2009. This figure dropped slightly during the recession years
of 2001 and 2002 but rose during the recovery period of 2003 to 2007. Manufacturing’s contribution started to decline again during the recession years of 2008 and 2009. This lack of trend is partially due to the differences between the price indices for manufacturing and those for other goods and services. The price indices for manufacturing have risen much slower than most of the others. Similar calculations for nominal (non-deflated) data show a continuous downward trend in manufacturing’s share of GDP.
The Great Recession is significantly impacting manufacturing. As shown in Table 2, manufacturing real GDP declined in both 2008 and 2009. Overall, the decrease from 2007 to 2009 was about 13.0 percent. In comparison, during the 2001 recession manufacturing real GDP dropped about 4.6 percent during only one year and regained its pre-recession level in slightly more than two years. Current forecasts predict that it will be mid 2012 before manufacturing regains its 2007 peak.
3The State of Montana Manufacturing
4 Introduction
6 Manufacturing and the U.S. Economy
7 Manufacturing and the Montana Economy
11 A Closer Look at Montana Manufacturing
11 Manufacturing Establishments
11 Employment Size
12 Composition of Manufacturing
13 Manufacturing Employment
14 Employment by Industry
15 Labor Income by Industry
16 Manufacturing Labor Income
18 Employment and Per Worker Wages and Salaries
19 Manufacturing Exports
Contents
Indicators- County -Base Year
2000
- County -Current Year
- State -Current Year
ECONOMIC STATUS
Families with children receiving benefits through TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families), FY 2010
SNAP3 participants of all ages (monthly average), FY2010
Children enrolled in Pre-Kindergarten through 12th grade who are eligible for free/reduced-price lunch, academic year 2009-2010
Children receiving Best Beginnings scholarships4, FY2010
HEALTH AND HEALTH INSURANCE
Births to mothers receiving prenatal care starting during 1st trimester (as percent of all births), 2005-2009
Children ages 0-17 enrolled in Medicaid (monthly average), FY2010
Children ages 0-18 enrolled in Montana’s Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) (monthly average), FY2010
EDUCATION
Public, private, and home school enrollment (K-12), academic year 2009-10
Public Pre-Kindergarten enrollment, academic year 2009-10
Special education enrollment, academic year 2009-10
SAFETY
Juvenile referral rate for all crimes (ages 10-17; per 1,000 juveniles), 2009
Juvenile referrals for all crimes (ages 10-17), 2009
Referrals for drug offenses (as percent of all referrals)
Referrals for violent offenses (as percent of all referrals)
Indicator- County -Base Year
2000
- County -Current Year
- State -Current Year
DEMOGRAPHICS
County population (all ages), 2009
Population change, 2000-2009
County population under age 18, 2009
Children under age 5
Children ages 5-13
Children ages 14-17
County population under age 20 by race/ethnicity, 2009
White alone
American Indian/Alaska Native alone
Hispanic/Latino
Median age in years, 2009
Indicator 2000 2009 Current Trend
Median household income
Unemployment rate
Children under 18 in poverty (below 100% FPL)1
Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
Babies born at low birth-weight (as percent of all births)
Births to teens (as percent of all births)
High school event drop-out rate2
Motor vehicle crashes with driver under 18
‡ = Less than 10 reported cases.1 The Federal Poverty Level guidelines can be found on p.9. 100% of FPL for a family of four was $22,050 in 2009.2 The high school drop-out rate lags one year behind enrollment data and is for academic year 2008-09.3 SNAP (Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program) has taken the place of the Food Stamps Program, administered by the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. The program itself has not changed.4 Unduplicated total.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Montana Dept. of Public Health & Human Services; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry; Montana Office of Public Instruction; Montana Dept. of Transportation; Montana Board of Crime Control. For contact information see Data Sources and Notes on p. 70.
2010 Montana Kids Count 21
At a Glance...
Chouteau CountyPopulation: 5,167County Seat: Fort BentonHouse Districts 28, 29, and 32, Senate Districts 14, 15, and 16
$30,365 $40,588 Better
2.6% 3.7% Worse
13% 21% Worse
0.0 N/A –
5% 6% Worse
8% 7% Better
0% 0% –
30 ‡ Better
‡ ‡ 3,711
144 275 109,330
318 302 56,504
17 ‡ 10,959
85% 64% 76%
84 150 55,070
64 106 18,047
958 652 141,807
0 ‡ 1,209
115 84 17,213
N/A 40.6 82.1
26 26 8,293
27% 0% 9%
N/A 4% 13%
5,970 5,167 974,989
-14% 8%
1,721 1,113 219,828
386 239 62,438
905 536 105,683
430 338 51,707
1,870 1,279 248,573
1,363 914 209,484
475 336 24,468
25 15 12,625
39 47 39
2010 MONTANA KIDS COUNT DATA BOOKMONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
OCTOBER 2010
Take the time to learn about business as you would another culture, by trying to understand their language and customs in order to work
more effectively together. Framing partnership efforts to emphasize what businesses can get out of their involvement can help you get the best thinking and commitment from your business partners.
Nothing is more off-putting to businesses than meetings full of early childhood process and jargon. Businesses tend to make decisions quickly and business partners will likely not understand early childhood
Tip 4:Understand Business Culture and Avoid Jargon
This... Could be this...
Makes sense. Let me bring it up with a friend of mine at
the Chamber tomorrow.
Hmm... Maybe next year.
THINKS: This could help our employees and our
company image.
THINKS: They’ve got to be kidding. Who would sit through those long
meetings where you never know what they might be
talking about? Dream on…
Business BusinessEarly Childhood Leader
Early Childhood Leader
We need your help to raise our state Medicaid cap and CCDF match from DPHHS. We also need more business people on our task force.
If Montana could raise more matching funds, we could generate more federal dollars and more of your employee’s kids’ might be able to get help with health care and child care costs. Do you think the Chamber might put it on their legislative agenda?
acronyms. Be clear and ready to act when you invite business to the table.
It is equally important to understand that businesses can be cautious about new commitments. This reluctance may be daunting to those unfamiliar with the business climate. It pays to do your homework, talking to key leaders who can help you understand a company’s history and style of involvement. Building trust takes time. Once a compelling argument is made and a connection to a business is developed, businesses move fast and they will expect you to keep up with them.
Rat
e of
ret
urn
to in
vest
men
t in
hum
an c
apit
al
Age
Programs targeted towards earliest years
0-3 4-5preschool
School Post-school
Preschool programs
Schooling
Job training
Rates of Return to Human Capital Investment at Different Ages: Return to an Extra Dollar at Various Ages
www.heckmanequation.orgSource: U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
TIPS FOR MONTANA BUSINESS LEADERSMONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
FEBRUARY 2011
Family-Friendly
Workplaces
A Guide for Montana Businesses
Brought to you by Montana KIDS COUNT
5
Increased Work/Family Conflict
Most Montana employers recognize the importance of family life to their employees. But many do not think about how they can help employees achieve an improved work-life balance. Nor do they consider the positive impact this balance will have on the company's bottom line. Today, the average parent loses eight days of work every year because of child care problems. Lost days add up to lost productivity. Parents who are secure about their child care are less likely to miss work or lose focus on the job.
The cost of providing child care combined with relatively low wages creates conflict and challenges for Montana workers. More businesses are opting to create family-friendly options to attract and retain workers and improve the productivity of their workforce.
15%
Children ages 5-8 in need
of child care31,300
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
$20,000
A person working full
time earning
minimum wage in
2008 made about
$13,300
Federal Poverty Line, $22,050*
-$4,300
More than 16,000 Montana families are working
but still live in poverty.
Parents pay most of early care and education program costs.
Private sector expenditure
for early childhood is about
4% of the total.
Government Funding
39%
Parental
Expenditures57%
Source: Dichter, H. Duplessis, A. Logan, L. & Stoney L. Strengthening Market-Based Early Care and Education Services for Low-Income Families. Partners in Early Childhood and Economic Development Conference., November 2009.* Federal Poverty Guideline for 3 persons in a family or household, 2008.
A GUIDE FOR MONTANA BUSINESSESSPIRAL BOUND, HALF SIZE LANDSCAPE BOOKLET
MONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHOCTOBER 2010
39 South Central
South CentralMontana and Wyoming
There are estimated to be 65,100 in the available labor force in the 12 counties of Montana and 3 counties of Wyoming which make up the south central Montana labor market region. 33,800 of available workers, slightly more than half, are male. 46.4 percent of available workers were aged 25-44 years, compared to the 40.3 percent share of workers in the same age group in the statewide available labor pool.
In many other respects, the profile of the available labor force in south central Montana is virtually identical to the state average: 25.3 percent have a college degree (versus the 25.9 percent state average), 62.4 percent restricted their job considerations to a 20 mile commute distance (59.5 percent
for the state), 63 percent said they were working in their chosen fields (62.9 percent for the state), and 87.6 percent said health insurance was very important in determining an attractive job (83.3 percent was the statewide average).
14 percent of the available work force, or 9300 workers, are in households with income greater than $100,000 per year. The available labor pool is more dominated by longer term residents, with 65 percent having lived in the region 10 years or more. Information and computer technology, energy production, and teaching and education fields were the most frequently mentioned by the available workforce as areas where training was most desirable.
Judith Basin, Fergus, Petroleum, Wheatland, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Park, Sweet Grass, Stillwater, Carbon, Yellowstone, Bighorn, Sheridan (WY), Johnson (WY),
and Cambell (WY) counties
THE AVAILABLE LABOR SUPPLY IN MONTANA’S LABOR MARKETSMONTANA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND INDUSTRY, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
FEBRUARY 2011
A GUIDE FOR MONTANA BUSINESSESSPIRAL BOUND, HALF SIZE LANDSCAPE BOOKLET
MONTANA KIDS COUNT, THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHOCTOBER 2010
ANTIOQUIA #1SEAFARER ENTERTAINMENT, PHILADELPHIA, PA
AUGUST 2011
THURSDAY
AUGUST 2THUNDERBIRD
$5 ADV$7 DOOR
TICKETS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.SEAFARERENTERTAINMENT.COM
ANTIOQUIA #2SEAFARER ENTERTAINMENT, PHILADELPHIA, PA
AUGUST 2011
ANTIOQUIAANTIOQUIATUESDAY \ AUGUST 2 at \ THE THUNDERBIRD
$5 ADV \ $7 DOSTickets Avail Online at
www.seafarerentertainment.com
WHITEWATER RAMBLETOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT
AUGUST 2011
milk drive
whitewaterramble(high Octane rOcky mOuntain dancegrass frOm cO)
(austin alt-fOlk)
with
AUG.5FRIDAY
21+$10 ADV$12 DOS
Tickets available at www.seafarerentertainment.com & Ear Candy
DOORS OPEN AT 930SHOW BEGINS AT 10
seafarer entertainment Presents
TOPHAT
WINTER IN THE BLOOD FILM PROMOTIONAL POSTERCAITLIN HOFMEISTER, MISSOULA, MT
JULY 2011
winter in the blood
TOP HAT PROMOTIONAL POSTERTOP HAT, MISSOULA, MT
JUNE 2011
31MAY Tuesday
2
1
3JUNE
JUNE
JUNEThursday
Wednesday
Friday6-8 p.m.family friendly
Claude Bourbon
Hobo Nephews
Broken
Reid PerryUncle Frank
ValleyRoadshow
of
(Medieval & Spanish blues)$3 @ 10 p.m.
(Rootsy Dylan Blues from MN)
(git-fiddle pickin’, hoover style)microbrews $3
TOP HATCOMING TO THE
WARTIME BLUES #1OLD POST, MISSOULA, MT
MAY 2011
wartime blues is playing a free show at the old post friday, may 13th around 8:00.
wartime bluesold post
friday, may 138:00 p.m
freeoutside
WARTIME BLUES #2BADLANDER, MISSOULA, MT
MAY 2011
WARTIMEBLUESwith
SICK KIDS XOXO
Friday, May 27Badlander
Tickets are $5