Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP...joint report: •Gridded annual emission data •Chemical composition •Temporal variation ... 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 m

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016

Heavy metal pollution assessment

within EMEP

Oleg Travnikov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC


• Review and improvement of HM emissions data for modelling

• Monitoring activities: data use and challenges

• Analysis of long-term trends

• Assessment of HM transboundary pollution (local/regional/global)

• Ecosystem-specific pollution

• Country-scale pollution assessment – Case studies of HM pollution

• Transition of operational modelling to the new EMEP grid

• Scientific co-operation on improvement of model assessment quality

• Co-operation with subsidiary bodies, international organizations and

programmes

Main directions of HM activities in 2016/2017

2016/2017 workplan (ECE/EB.AIR/133/Add.1)


Review of HM emission data for modeling

Key uncertainties of HM emissions

Emission parameter Pb and Cd

Hg

Quality of gridded anthropogenic emissions

1 2

Chemical composition - 1

Temporal variation 2 6

Vertical distribution 3 7

Global emissions inventory

4 3

Historical emissions 5 4

Emissions to other media 6 5

- 1st priority - 3rd priority - 2nd priority

Report should be served as a basis for EMEP strategy to improve emission inventories

MSC-E contribution to the joint report:

• Gridded annual emission data

• Chemical composition

• Temporal variation

• Vertical distribution

• Global emission inventories

• Historical and natural emissions

Joint CEIP / MSC-E technical report on emission uncertainties


Problems and challenges::

• Low quality data is still reported by some monitoring sites. Further improvement of QA/QC of heavy metal measurements is needed.

• The monitoring network is scarce in Eastern and Southern Europe and Central Asia.

• Partly spatial coverage could be improved by use of biomonitoring data (mosses etc.)

Measurements of heavy metals at the EMEP monitoring network (2014)

Measured Pb in precipitation

Monitoring activities

Assessment of Pb deposition Evaluation of model results

0.1 1 10

0.1

1

10

Mo

delle

d,

kg

/km

2/y

Observed, kg/km2/y


HM measurements in mosses

Measurements of heavy metal concentration in mosses

Supplementary measurement data

29th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, Dubna, Russia, March 2016

Reduction of Pb in moss (observed)

Reduction of Pb deposition (model)

Percents

1990-2010

Percents

1990-2010


Information for Policy Makers / EMEP SB

Model assessment of HM pollution Long-term pollution trends (1990-2014)

Reduction of HM deposition (1990-2012)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pb Cd Hg

Overa

ll re

dcution (

1990

-2012),

%

EMEP EU28 EECCA

Long-term changes of HM deposition

0

10

20

30

40

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

Pb

de

po

sitio

n, kg

/km

2/y

0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

Cd

an

d H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2/y

Cd Hg Pb

Contribution to CLRTAP assessments

Extension up to 2014



Current pollution of EMEP countries (2014)

Model assessment of HM pollution

Deposition of Pb in 2014 Source apportionment of Pb deposition in 2014

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Bulg

aria

Slo

vakia

P

ola

nd

Slo

venia

B

osnia

_H

erz

egovin

a

Monte

negro

C

zech_R

epublic

C

roatia

Hungary

M

onaco

Georg

ia

Italy

A

rmenia

R

om

ania

T

ajik

ista

n

Azerb

aija

n

Germ

any

Serb

ia

Mold

ova

Macedonia

K

yrgyzsta

n

Austr

ia

Ukra

ine

Neth

erlands

Belg

ium

A

lbania

Luxem

bourg

Lithuania

B

ela

rus

Turk

ey

Gre

ece

Sw

itzerland

Latv

ia

Lie

chte

nste

in

Esto

nia

D

enm

ark

F

rance

Uzbekis

tan

Cyp

rus

Malta

Kazakhsta

n

United_K

ingdom

P

ort

ugal

Spain

T

urk

menis

tan

Sw

eden

Irela

nd

Fin

land

Russia

(All)

N

orw

ay

Icela

nd

Pb

de

po

sitio

n, kg

/km

2/y

Non-EMEP sources

Secondary sources

Anthropogenic sources

Pb deposition to Austria

Austria

Italy

Poland

Germany

Slovakia

Slovenia

Others

Pb deposition to UK

UK

France

Poland

Germany

Spain

Ireland

Others

Pb deposition to Portugal Others

Spain

Portugal


Relative changes of country-averaged Cd deposition between 2013 and 2014

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80 S

we

de

n

Mo

ldo

va

G

eo

rgia

B

ulg

ari

a

Cro

atia

C

yp

rus

Ukra

ine

R

om

an

ia

Den

ma

rk

Slo

ve

nia

A

ze

rba

ijan

H

un

ga

ry

Lith

ua

nia

S

erb

ia

Bo

sn

ia_

Herz

eg

ovin

a

Be

laru

s

Norw

ay

Arm

en

ia

Tu

rke

y

La

tvia

S

pa

in

FY

R o

f M

ace

do

nia

M

alta

R

ussia

n F

ed

era

tio

n

Slo

va

kia

F

inla

nd

It

aly

P

ort

ug

al

Po

lan

d

Mo

nte

ne

gro

N

eth

erl

an

ds

Esto

nia

L

iech

ten

ste

in

Mo

na

co

A

ustr

ia

Alb

an

ia

Ge

rma

ny

Sw

itze

rla

nd

U

zb

ekis

tan

K

aza

kh

sta

n

Ice

lan

d

Ire

lan

d

Unite

d_

Kin

gd

om

C

ze

ch

_R

ep

ub

lic

Tu

rkm

en

ista

n

Kyrg

yzsta

n

Fra

nce

G

ree

ce

L

uxe

mb

ou

rg

Be

lgiu

m

Ta

jikis

tan

Rela

tive

ch

an

ge

s, %

Inter-annual changes from -40% to 80%


Inter-annual variability of HM pollution

Main factors:

• Change in atmospheric transport pathways

• Re-calculation of emissions by countries

• Altering of secondary emissions (re-suspension)

Cd anthropogenic deposition to Sweden

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2013 2014

Cd d

epositio

n, t/y Denmark

Russia

Germany

Poland

Sweden

Large inter-annual variation of both HM levels and source apportionment requires regular assessment of transboundary pollution within EMEP


Information for Effect Community / WGE

Hg deposition to forest

Forest Frequency distribution of Hg deposition

Ecosystem-specific information Heavy metal deposition to different ecosystems (2014)

Hg deposition to inland waters

Inland

waters 0

5

10

15

0 10 20 30

Deposition flux, g/km2/y

Fre

qu

en

cy,

%

Inland waters

Forest


Pb deposition in Belarus Contribution of industrial

combustion sector

Objective:

Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data

Countries involved: Czech Republic, Croatia,

Netherlands, Belarus, Poland, UK

Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries

Country-scale pollution assessment

- Poland

- Ukraine

- Germany

- Italy

- Belarus

Belarus (complete):

• Pollution levels with fine spatial resolution

(10×10 km2)

• Source-receptor relationships for the country and its regions

• Pollution of large cities

• Pollution from particular emission sectors

- Secondary

- Other anthrop.

- City

- non-EMEP

0.0

0.5

1.0

Avera

ge d

epositio

n, kg/k

m /y

2

Information for National Experts / Policy Makers


United Kingdom (in progress):

• Joint study with Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK)

• Simulations of Pb levels with fine spatial resolution (10x10 km2)

• Evaluation against measurements

• Comparison of modeling results of MSC-E and FRAME model

Poland (initiated):

• National gridded emissions data (0.1°x0.1°)

and emissions from LPS

• Collection of measurements and other data

• Planed simulations of Cd pollution levels with fine spatial resolution (10x10 km2)

Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries

Country-scale pollution assessment Information for National Experts / Policy Makers

Cd emissions in Poland (2014)

Evaluation of modeling results

0

2

4

6

8

10

UK

01

UK

02

UK

03

UK

08

UK

09

UK

11

UK

12

UK

13

UK

14

UK

19

UK

31

UK

32

Pb

co

nce

ntr

atio

n, n

g/m

3

MSC-E 10x10

FRAME 5x5

Observed


Percents Percents

Contribution of LPS to Pb deposition

(Tata Steel IJmuiden BV, Netherlands)

Contribution of LPS to Cd deposition

(Prunéřov II Power Station, Czech Rep.)

Heavy metal pollution from Large Point Sources (LPS)

Country-scale pollution assessment Information for National Experts / Policy Makers

Contribution of LPS to HM pollution can exceed 20-50% over significant areas of the country


• Preparation of data on chemical

reactants in the atmosphere

Current activities on implementation

of the new grid:

• Generation of meteorological data

(time series)

• Preparation of emissions data based

on expert estimates (official data is

not available)

• Pilot simulations and evaluation

against measurements

Transition to the new EMEP grid

Current and new EMEP domains

Current EMEP domain

New EMEP domain


Hg wet deposition (2014)

0

5

10

15

20

0 5 10 15 20

Observed, g/km2/y

Mo

de

lled,

g/k

m2/y

Old grid

New grid

1:1

1:2

2:1

Old grid New grid

Correlation 0.72 0.92

Reg. slope 1.40 1.35

Pilot simulations of Hg pollution over the new EMEP grid (2014)

Transition to the new EMEP grid

Old grid

New grid

Evaluation vs. measurements


TF HTAP Workshop, Potsdam, Germany, February 2016

Participating models:

Model National experts

GLEMOS EMEP/MSC-E

ECHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy)

CMAQ-Hg HZG (Germany)

WRF-Chem CNR-IIA (Italy)

GEOS-Chem MIT (USA)

GEM-MACH-Hg Environment Canada

p-TOMCAT Cambridge (UK)

Information for Research Community

Multi-model study of Hg pollution and processes

Improvement of model assessment quality

Environment Canada

GEOS-Chem

ECHMERIT

GEM-MACH-Hg

GLEMOS

Hg0 air concentration (2013)


Sites measuring Hg wet deposition

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Wet depositio

n, ng/m

2 /d

ay

99 sites Wet deposition

Measurements ECHMERIT GLEMOS GEM-MACH-Hg GEOS-Chem

0

20

40

60

80

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Wet depositio

n,

ng/m

2/d

ay

Hg0 + Br

0

20

40

60

80

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Wet depositio

n,

ng/m

2/d

ay

Hg0 + O3

0

20

40

60

80

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Wet depositio

n,

ng/m

2/d

ay

Hg0 + OH


Study of Hg oxidation chemistry in the atmosphere

Improvement of model assessment quality


Peer-reviewed publications (2016) Information for Research Community

Travnikov O., Bieser J., Dastoor A., De Simone F., Gencarelli C.N., Hedgecock I.M.,

Matthias V., Ryjkov A., Selin N., Song S., Yang X., Pirrone N. (2016) Multi-model study

of mercury dispersion in the atmosphere: Atmospheric processes and model evaluation.

Atmos. Chem. Phys., in preparation.

Pacyna J.M., Travnikov O., De Simone F., Hedgecock I.M., Sundseth K., Pacyna E.G.,

Steenhuisen F., Pirrone N., Munthe J., Kindbom K. (2016) Current and future levels of

mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale. Atmos. Chem. Phys., accepted.

Angot H., Dastoor A., De Simone F., Gårdfeldt K., Gencarelli C. N., Hedgecock I.M.,

Langer S., Magand O., Mastromonaco M.N., Nordstrøm C., Pfaffhuber K.A., Pirrone N.,

Ryjkov A., Selin N.E., Skov H., Song S., Sprovieri F., Steffen A., Toyota K., Travnikov

O., Yang X., Dommergue A. (2016) Chemical cycling and deposition of atmospheric

mercury in polar regions: review of recent measurements and comparison with models.

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10735-10763.

Gencarelli C.N., Bieser J., Carbone F., De Simone F., Hedgecock I.M., Matthias V.,

Travnikov O., Yang X., Pirrone N. (2016) Sensitivity model study of regional mercury

dispersion in the atmosphere. Atmos. Chem. Phys., submitted.

Bieser J., Carbone F., De Simone F., Gencarelli C.N., Hedgecock I.M., Matthias V.,

Travnikov O., Yang X., Pirrone N. (2016) Model study on vertical distribution of mercury

in the troposphere. Atmos. Chem. Phys., in preparation.


Future scenarios of Hg deposition to EMEP countries (2035)

Future changes of Hg pollution

Europe

Africa

North America

Central America

Australia and NZ

South Asia

East Asia

Southeast Asia

Middle East

EECCA

South America

Source regions European Union (EU28) EECCA countries

0

3

6

9

2013 CP 2035

NP 2035

MFR 2035

Dep

ositio

n flu

x,

g/k

m

2 /y

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013 CP 2035

NP 2035

MFR 2035

Dep

ositio

n flu

x,

g/k

m

2 /y


‘Current Policy’ Scenario ‘New Policy’ Scenario ‘Maximum Feasible Reduction’

Intercontinental

transport


• Participation in the Global Mercury

Assessment 2013 (GMA 2013) to support

negotiations of the Minamata Convention on

Mercury.

• Coordination of work on the update of GMA

2013 with new modelling results (2015)

• Leading preparation of the modelling part of

Global Mercury Assessment 2018 (in

cooperation with AMAP)

Project Coordination Group of GMA 2018

(Geneva, April 2016)

Global Mercury

Assessment 2018

International co-operation

Cooperation with UNEP & Minamata Conv.


Regular pollution assessment over

EMEP domain:

• Substances – Pb, Cd, Hg

• Concentration and deposition maps

• Source-receptor relationships

• Long-term trends (1990-2014)

Complementary assessment on

global scale:

• Substances – Hg

• Includes the whole AMAP region

• Intercontinental transport

International co-operation

Cooperation with AMAP

EMEP and AMAP domains

EMEP

AMAP

Joint CLRTAP/AMAP workshop (Potsdam, February 2016)

Hg deposition (2014)


Workplan elements for 2017

Operational monitoring and modelling of HM pollution transboundary

pollution within EMEP

Generation of data on ecosystem-dependent deposition of HMs for the

effect community

Country-scale assessment within the Case Studies (UK and Poland) in

co-operation with TFMM and national experts

Support of EECCA countries with information on HM pollution

Assessment of intercontinental transport and contribution of secondary

sources to HMs pollution in the EMEP domain

Finalizing transition of HM operational modelling to the new EMEP grid

Finalizing preparatory work and distribution of the GLEMOS model for

public use as open source

Scientific co-operation and data exchange with subsidiary and

international bodies on HM pollution (TFMM, TF HTAP, UNEP, AMAP,

HELCOM etc.)

Documents

Heavy metal pollution assessment within EMEP...joint report: •Gridded annual emission data •Chemical composition •Temporal variation ... 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 m