Heat Pump Installation Statistics

This report has been funded by BEIS and is issued on their behalf

Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project

Heat Pump Installation Statistics

Written by Energy Systems Catapult DECEMBER 2021


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DISCLAIMER This document has been prepared by Energy Systems Catapult Limited. For full copyright, legal information and defined terms, please refer to the “Licence / Disclaimer” section at the back of this document.

All information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Systems Catapult Limited. No warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon the Energy Systems Catapult Limited or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.


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Contents

Glossary ........................................................................................................................................ 3

1. Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 4

2. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Project Overview ......................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Project Stages ............................................................................................................ 6 2.3 Timeline and Impact of the Covid 19 pandemic .......................................................... 7 2.4 Project Delivery ........................................................................................................... 7 2.5 In-Scope Heat Pump Types ........................................................................................ 9 2.6 Installation Target Quotas ......................................................................................... 10

2.6.1 Number of Heat Pumps vs Type ................................................................. 10 2.6.2 Property Type and Age ............................................................................... 10

3. Final Installation Statistics .................................................................................................. 11 3.1 Versus project targets ............................................................................................... 11 3.2 By Heat Pump Type, Property Type and Age ........................................................... 12 3.3 Property Type by Age ............................................................................................... 13

4. References ......................................................................................................................... 14

5. Annexes ............................................................................................................................. 15

5.1 Heat Pump installations by system type and property type/age ............................... 15


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Glossary ASHP Air Source Heat Pump BEIS Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy DC Delivery Contractor EoH Electrification of Heat GDPR General Data Protection Regulation GSHP Ground source heat pump (ground-to-water heat pump) HT High Temperature LT Low Temperature MCS Microgeneration Certification Scheme NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics SICE Science and Innovation for Climate and Energy


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1. Executive summary The Electrification of Heat (EoH) demonstration project is funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and seeks to better understand the feasibility of a large-scale rollout of heat pumps in homes across the UK. It aims to demonstrate that heat pumps can be installed in a wide variety of homes and deliver high customer satisfaction across a range of customer groups.

Outputs derived from the project will include:

• Evidence on heat pump suitability across a range of housing archetypes, including system and installation costs.

• Real-world performance data for heat pumps and demand profiles across a range of housing and consumer types.

• Insights found to inform future government policy in this area

It is believed that the project will create the largest dataset in the UK to date on heat pump performance. This will provide valuable understanding to both BEIS and the wider sector.

The project had a target to install heat pumps in up to 750 homes across Great Britain, in a representative range of housing archetypes with the majority on the gas grid [1]. The project has recruited participants from the public to go through a customer journey including home survey, heat pump system design and subsequent installation; followed by a period of operational monitoring.

The recruitment and installation phase of the EoH project ran from July 2020 through to September 2021 (longer than originally intended due to the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic).

The data released by this report is the first of several subsequent reports and data releases from the project. This report provides:

• Key observations from the installation phase of the project • Definition of the project installation targets • The total number of heat pump systems installed broken down by type • Detail of the types and ages of properties in which systems have been installed • A summary of what percentage of properties were on the gas-grid

A total of 742 heat pump systems were installed against the project target of up to 750. From the distribution of installations against project targets, the following conclusions can be drawn.

1. The EoH project was successful in installing the full range of heat pump system types into the full range of targeted property types and ages.

2. 80% of the installations were in properties that were connected to the gas grid and where (prior to the heat pump installation), the primary heating system was fueled by mains gas.

3. The project has not identified any particular type or age of property that cannot have a successful heat pump installation. The suggestion that there are particular home archetypes in Great Britain that are “unsuitable” for heat pumps is not supported by the project data.


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4. There were small shortfalls (though within planned tolerances) in the number of installations for properties built pre-1945, with a slight excess in the 1945-1980 age bracket. This is indicative of there being a greater challenge in successfully designing heat pump systems for older homes, however 163 installs were successfully completed in these older properties, clearly showing that such challenges are manageable in many cases.


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2. Introduction 2.1 Project Overview The Electrification of Heat (EoH) demonstration project is funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and seeks to better understand the feasibility of a large-scale rollout of heat pumps into existing homes across the UK. To support this, the project aims to:

• Develop, test and evaluate products and services that increase the appeal of heat pumps and identify optimal solutions for a wide range of homes.

• Demonstrate that heat pumps, including gas-electric hybrids, can deliver high consumer satisfaction across a wide range of consumers in Great Britain.

• Demonstrate the practical and technical feasibility of heat pumps, including gas-electric hybrids, across Great Britain’s diverse housing stock, as well as identifying the costs.

• Capture learning from the project to help improve awareness across the renewable heating supply chain, raise acceptance and support wider deployment of heat pumps in Great Britain

Through three Delivery Contractors (E.ON, OVO Energy, Warmworks), members of the public were recruited to engage with a consumer journey including home survey and heat pump design, with a target of installing up to 750 heat pumps across a representative range of housing archetypes, with the majority on the gas grid.

It was fully expected that not all recruited participants would progress to an installation – understanding the barriers to them doing so, be they personal or heat pump design related, is a key objective of the project.

This report is issued to accompany the publication of summary statistics detailing the number of heat pump installations completed by the project, with associated information about the type and age of property into which the installs were made.

2.2 Project Stages Figure 1 below shows the key stages of the EoH demonstration project. Participants are recruited through a variety of means and eligible householders are taken through to a home suitability survey to assess the property for installation of a selection of different heat pump types (see Section 2.6). Following a successful design, the heat pump system is installed along with monitoring equipment so that the system performance may be monitored.

Figure 1: Flow chart of key project stages

Mass Recruitment

Eligibility Triage

Home Suitability

Survey

Technical Survey & Design

System Installation Monitoring


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2.3 Timeline and Impact of the Covid 19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the project as the recruitment of householders happened during the peak of the pandemic in 2020-2021. Restrictions on entering customer properties and social distancing were in place over autumn 2020 to spring 2021, impacting the ability to visit homes to carry-out surveys and installations through legal constraints, or due to participants being uncomfortable with visitors in their home.

As a consequence, the installation phase of the project was extended until the end of September 2021*, with this deadline being set to ensure that all installations were complete in advance of the 2021/22 winter heating season. This deadline meant that the project fell short of the up to 750 installation target by 8 homes. Overall, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was to delay the recruitment, survey and installation stages of the project, resulting in installations being completed around six months later than originally intended.

An overview of the achieved timescales for the project is provided in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Project timescales

*Contractors had the opportunity to complete installations beyond this deadline on a case-by-case basis, if they could guarantee completion within a short timeframe of the deadline.

2.4 Project Delivery The EoH project is made up of a number of key contracts as illustrated below.

Spring 2020Delivery

Contractors join the project

June 2020Participant recruitment

begins

October 2020Heat Pump

System Installations commence

September 2021

Installation Phase

complete*


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Following an open tender process, the following lead organisations were appointed to each role:

Role Organisation Name Management Contractor Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) with Delta-

EE and Oxford Computer Consultants Delivery Contractor 1 E.ON Delivery Contractor 2 Warmworks Scotland Delivery Contractor 3 OVO Energy Evaluation Contractor ICF

The project was limited to domestic buildings within Great Britain and it was required that each of the three delivery contractors operated in a different NUTS1 region. Following the tender and contract award process the regions covered by each DC were as follows:

Delivery Contractor Region Additional Information

E.ON North-East England

Focused in Newcastle and the surrounding area. Initially this was a largely urban area, but throughout the project recruitment expanded in to semi-urban and semi-rural areas within surrounding Northumberland, Gateshead and North Tyneside.

OVO Energy South-East England

Worked across the region covering both rural and urban areas, but excluding London.

Warmworks Scotland Focussed on the south-east of Scotland in the area spanning five local authority areas (Fife, Edinburgh City, Midlothian, East Lothian, and the Scottish Borders). Encompasses a broad range of urban and rural areas.

All of the data defined in this report was gathered by the Delivery Contractors as part of their activities to deliver the EoH project. In each case, a number of sub-contractor organisations will have been involved in primary data collection (e.g. surveyors, installers) but all provided data to the relevant Delivery Contractor for collation and quality control.

The ESC, in its role of Management Contractor, collates all project data from the delivery contractors and is responsible for publication of the final combined dataset.


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2.5 In-Scope Heat Pump Types

As part of the project it was required that a range of heat pump systems would be installed. This range covered system type, heat pump size and necessary system components such as controls and thermal storage. The heat pump system types included within the scope of the project were:

System Type Definition / Requirements

Low Temperature Air to Water (LT ASHP)

A Heat Pump capable of providing water at an outlet temperature of no more than 65°C.

High Temperature Air to Water (HT ASHP)

A Heat Pump Capable of providing water at an outlet temperature of >65°C (definition in in line with previous BEIS studies [2])*

Ground to Water (GSHP) May use either boreholes or ground loops for the circulation of the heat transfer fluid (brine). Both individual property and shared systems were in scope for the project.

Gas-Electric Hybrids Could be of either monobloc or split design and could use either an existing or replacement gas boiler.

It was a requirement that the controls should be configured to maximise the space heating contribution from the heat pump component of the system.

* It is recognised that, as a consequence of cycle design and/or refrigerant selection, many modern heat pumps are capable of achieving these temperatures without a significant change in performance compared to operation at lower temperatures. Some modern systems meeting this “high temperature” definition also exhibit higher performance levels (COP, SPF) than other “low temperature” competitors.

It should therefore be noted that in several cases, systems meeting this “high temperature” definition have been specified and installed due to their flexibility and/or performance levels, not necessarily because the home requires heating temperatures in excess of 65°C.

All heat pump systems were designed in accordance with MCS design practices and guidelines, with all design work and installation performed by MCS accredited organisations.

In addition to the heat pump itself, all system designs and installations also include any required provision or changes/upgrades to thermal storage (e.g. water tanks), emitters/radiators and controls (plus associated plumbing and electrical works) as required to meet heat loss requirements.


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2.6 Installation Target Quotas The EoH project set certain targets with regard to the type of heat pump system installed, the type of property and the participant receiving a heat pump installation. Consequently recruitment has been targeted towards meeting these targets and the distribution of properties achieved is biased towards these objectives.

2.6.1 Number of Heat Pumps vs Type The project target was to install up to 750 heat pump systems. The following targets were set with regard to the type of heat pump system installed:

Heat Pump Type Target Quota Low Temperature Air Source LT ASHP No specific target High Temperature Air Source HT ASHP At least 6% of installs Ground Source GSHP At least 6% of installs Gas-Electric Hybrid Hybrid Between 20-60% of installs

2.6.2 Property Type and Age The following targets were set with regard to property type and age. The target levels were set to broadly match the mix of UK housing stock in each category:

Criteria Group Target Quota House Type Detached 40%

Semi-detached / end-terrace 40% Mid-terrace 15% Flats 5%

House Age Pre-1919 10% 1919 to 1944 20% 1945 to 1964 20% 1965 to 1980 20% 1981 to 1990 10% 1991 to 2000 10% 2001+ 10%

Each of the targets above had an allowable variation of +/-5%.

In addition to the above there were also targets for the socio-economic status of the participants and the percentage of properties within private ownership


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3. Final Installation Statistics Annex 5.1 contains the full set of statistics providing the breakdown of heat pump type against property form and age. The raw data (providing an install by install definition) and copies of the graphs shown below are available for download from the ESC website on the EoH project page(s).

3.1 Versus project targets In total the EoH project installed 742 heat pump systems. The following table shows the number of installations compared with the project targets (as outlined in Section 2.6):

Criteria Group Target Quota Achieved (%)

Achieved (No.)

Heat Pump Type Low Temperature Air Source

- 41.4% 306

High Temperature Air Source

min 6% 32.9% 245

Ground Source min 6% 5.1% 38 Hybrid 20-60% 20.6% 153

Property Form Detached 40% 40.6% 301 Semi-detached

40% 42.8% 261

End-terrace 57 Mid-terrace 15% 11.1% 82 Flats 5% 5.5% 41

Property Age Pre-1919 10% 7.8% 58 1919 to 1944 20% 14.2% 105 1945 to 1964 20% 24.0% 178 1965 to 1980 20% 22.2% 165 1981 to 1990 10% 9.2% 68 1991 to 2000 10% 9.6% 71 2001+ 10% 13.1% 97

Table 1: Performance against project target quotas

The 38 GSHP may be further broken down as follows:

• 16 GSHP units in a block of 16 flats served by a shared system comprising four boreholes • 12 GSHP units in a block of 12 flats served by a shared system comprising three boreholes • 10 individual property installations

All project targets for heat pump system type were met with the exception of the number of Ground Source installations which is 0.9% lower than originally intended.

All project targets for property type and age were met within the stated 5% tolerance, with the exception of the 1919-1944 age bracket which delivered 105 installations vs the target of 20% of the total.

Overall, 80% of the installations were in properties that were connected to the gas grid and where (prior to the heat pump installation) the primary heating system was fuelled by mains gas.


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3.2 By Heat Pump Type, Property Type and Age Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the heat pump installed type by property type and age.

Figure 1: Breakdown of Heat Pump type by Property Form

Figure 2: Breakdown of Heat Pump type by Property Age


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3.3 Property Type by Age Figure 3 below shows the breakdown of the property age bands by the property type in which heat pump systems were installed.

Figure 3: Property Age by Property type


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4. References

[1] BEIS, “Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project Delivery Contractor - Invitation to Tender: 2174/12/2019,” 19th December 2019.

[2] DECC, “Evidence Gathering - Low Carbon Heating Technologies. Domestic High Temperature Heat Pumps,” BEIS, 2016.


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5. Annexes

5.1 Heat Pump installations by system type and property type/age

Low Temp ASHP

High Temp ASHP GSHP Hybrid Grand Total

Detached 122 135 8 36 3011919-1944 15 15 1 311945-1964 13 10 4 9 361965-1980 28 24 8 601981-1990 21 14 7 421991-2000 9 25 7 412001+ 26 41 3 1 71Pre 1919 9 7 1 3 20Semi-Detached 105 62 2 92 2611919-1944 14 13 1 26 541945-1964 42 19 1 37 991965-1980 28 10 18 561981-1990 3 7 7 171991-2000 4 4 1 92001+ 6 4 1 11Pre 1919 8 5 2 15End-Terrace 27 20 10 571919-1944 2 3 1 61945-1964 11 6 2 191965-1980 8 2 4 141981-1990 1 1 21991-2000 2 4 62001+ 3 1 4Pre 1919 3 1 2 6Mid-Terrace 44 23 15 821919-1944 4 2 4 101945-1964 14 4 3 211965-1980 5 7 3 151981-1990 3 2 1 61991-2000 3 32001+ 7 3 10Pre 1919 8 5 4 17Flat 9 4 28 411919-1944 3 1 41945-1964 2 1 31965-1980 3 1 16 201981-1990 1 11991-2000 12 122001+ 1 1Grand Total 307 244 38 153 742


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Report produced in December 2021

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Heat Pump Installation Statistics