Guido Franco Dan CayanPublic Interest Energy Research Program Scripps Institution of Oceanography California Energy Commission University of California, San Diego

U.S. Geological Survey California Energy Commission’s Climate Change Center

Climate Action TeamSacramento, California

March 11, 20091

OutlineProcess and participation in preparing 2008

Climate Change Impact Assessment (Scenarios Report)

Overall strategy

Climate and sea level rise scenarios

Illustrative preliminary results

Conclusions

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Scenarios Sub-Group

Sub-group served as a steering committee

Core Group was main interface with scientists

Scientists associated with several institutions, mostly from California have produced more than 35 scientific papers. (The 2006 Scenarios Study had ~20 papers,)

Scenario Subgroup of the CAT Team

CalEPA, Resource Agency, ARB, Caltrans, DWR, OPC, Coastal Commission, BCDC,

OEHHA, Dept. of Health, Cal Fire, CDFG, CDFA, CEC

Core GroupDan Cayan (Co-Chair, Scripps), Michael

Hanemann (UC Berkeley), Andrew Altevogt (CalEPA), Alan Sanstad (LBNL), Susanne

Moser (Consultant/PIER), Bart Croes (ARB), D. Orrill (Resources),

Guido Franco (C0-Chair – CEC)

Research TeamScripps/UC San Diego, UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara,

Stanford, UC Merced, Santa Clara University, USGS, UC Davis, RAND, Pacific Institute, JPL/UCLA, TNC, Oregon State, UC Santa Cruz, LLNL, USFS, LBNL,

OEHHA, DWR, ARB, CDF, CEC

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Draft Final PapersScope of work developed by the Core Group and

approved by the Scenarios Subgroup in summer 2007

More than 35 papers commissioned Formal peer-review established and conductedNearly all of the papers have passed peer-review

and are now available as Draft Final papers Public Science meeting to be held in April to

discuss findingsFinal papers will be ready before the release of

the final CAT report

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List of Draft Final Papers

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Titles Authors

Titles AuthorsLong-run socioeconomic and demographic scenarios for California

Alan H. Sanstad, Hans Johnson, Noah Goldstein, Guido Franco

Climate Change Scenarios and Sea Level Rise Estimates for the California 2008 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment

Dan Cayan, Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Ed Maurer, Peter Bromirski, Nicholas Graham, and Reinhard Flick

Anthropogenic Reduction of Santa Ana Winds Mimi Hughes, Alex Hall, and Jinwon Kim

Observed Changes in the Sierra Nevada Snowpack: Potential Causes and Concerns

Sarah Kapnick and Alex Hall

An Intercomparison and Evaluation of California Baseline Regional Climate Using Multiple Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling Techniques

N. Miller, D. Cayan, P. Duffy, H. Hidalgo J. Jin, H. Kanamaru, M. Kanamitsu, T. O’Brien, N. Schlegel, L. Sloan, M. Snyder, K. Yoshimura

A Projection of the Cold Season Hydroclimate in California in Mid-Twenty-First Century under the SRES-A1B Emission Scenario

J. Kim, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. Liou, J. McWilliams, Y. Xue, X. Qu, and S. Kapnick, D. Waliser, A. Eldering, Y. Chao

Simulating the Sierra Nevada Snowpack: The Impact of Snow Albedo and Multi-Layer Snow Physics.

Waliser, D., J. Kim, Y. Xue, Y. Chao, A. Eldering, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. Liou, J. McWilliams, S. Kapnick, R. Vasic, F. De Sale, and Y. Yu

Price Impact on the Demand for Water and Energy in California Residences

Larry Dale, Mithra Moezzi, Felipe Vasquez, Michael Hanemann

Impact of Climate Change on Residential Electricity Consumption: Evidence from Billing Data

Maximilian Auffhammer and Anin Aroonruengsawat

Climate change impacts on the operation of two high elevation hydropower systems in California

Sebastian Vicuna, John Dracup, Larry Dale

Water Management Adaptation with Climate Change J. Medellin, C. Connell, K. Madani, and J. Lund

Projections of Potential Flood Regime Changes in California

Dettinger, Knowles, Hidalgo, Das, Cayan, Tyree

Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Agricultural Water Management in California's Western San Joaquin Valley, and Potential Adaptation Strategies

Brian Joyce, Vishal Mehta, David Purkey, Larry Dale, Michael Hanemann, Michael Kiparsky, John Dracup

Using Future Climate Projections to Support Water Decision Making in California

Francis Chung and Jamie Anderson

California perennial crops in a changing climate D. Lobell and C. Field

Climate extremes in California agriculture D.B. Lobell, A. Torney, and C.B. Field

Effect of Climate Change on Field Crop Production in the Central Valley of California

Lee, J. and J. Six

Estimating the Economic Impacts of Agricultural Yield Related Changes for California

Richard Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on California Agriculture

Christopher J. Costello, Olivier Deschênes, Charles D. Kolstad

Potential for Adaptation to Climate Change in an Agricultural Landscape in the Central Valley of California

L. E. Jackson, F. Santos-Martin, A. D. Hollander, W. R. Horwath, R. E. Howitt, J., B. Kramer, A. T. O’Geen, B. S. Orlove, J. W. Six, S. K. Sokolow, D. A. Sumner, T. P.Tomich, and S. M. WheelerClimate Change Impacts to Urban and Agricultural

Sectors in CaliforniaMichael Hanemann, Susan Stratton, and Nathaniel Bush (UC Berkeley) and Larry Dale (LBNL)

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Climate variability and California low level inversions Iacobellis, Norris, Kanamitsu, Tyree and Cayan

Impact of Climate Change on Photochemical Air Pollution in Southern California

D.E. Millstein and R.A. Harley

The Impact of Climate Change on California Timberlands

Lee Hannah, Chris Costello, Chris Guo, Lydia Ries, and Nathan Snider

Climate Change, Growth, and California WildfireA.L. Westerling, B. P. Bryant, H.K. Preisler, H G. Hidalgo, and T. Das

Projecting climate change impacts on forest growth and yield for California's Sierran mixed conifer forests

Battles, J.J., Robards, T., Stewart, W., and Das, A.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on Residential Widlfire Risk in California

B.P. Bryant and A.L. Westerling

Climate Change and Public Health in California Deborah Drechsler

Estimating the Mortality Effect of the July 2006 California Heat Wave

Bart D. Ostro, Lindsey A. Roth, Rochelle S. Green, and Rupa Basu

Estimating Climate Change Impacts from Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Air Masses

Scott Sheridan, Katharine Hayhoe, Laurence Kalkstein,

A Multi-County Analysis Identifying the Vulnerable Populations for Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperature in California

Rupa Basu and Bart Ostro

The Effect of Temperature on Hospital Admissions in Nine California Counties

Rochelle Green, Rupa Basu, Brian Malig, Rachel Broadwin, Janice Kim, Bart Ostro

   Climate Change and Potential Hotspots of Coastal Erosion Along the Southern California Coast

Peter N. Adams, Douglas L. Inman

Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region

Noah Knowles

The Impact of Sea-Level rise on the California CoastMatthew Heberger, Heather Cooley, Pablo Herrera, Peter H. Gleick

Estimating The Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Southern California Beaches

Pendleton, L., King, P., Mohn, C., Webster, D.G., and R. K. Vaughn, and Peter Adams

 Environmental Health and Equity Impacts from Climate  Change and Climate Change Policies in California: A Review of the Literature

Seth B. Shonkoff, Rachel Morello, Manuel Pastor, James Sadd 

The Impact of Climate Change on California's Ecosystem Services

R. Shaw, D Bachelet, D. Cameron, M. Conte, D. Cochlin, B. Morris, J. MacKenzie, K. Klausmeyer, E. Haunreiter, C. Costello

Current and Future Impacts of Extreme Events in California

Mastrandrea, C.Tebaldi, C.P. Snyder, S.H. Schneider

Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego Region by 2050

Steven Messner, Sandra C Miranda, Karen Green, Charles Phillips, Joseph Dudley, Dan Cayan, Emily Young

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Sectoral StudiesAgricultureForest ResourcesElectricity demand and generationCoastal resourcesWater resourcesAir QualityPublic HealthEcological services

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Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Demographic and Urban Projections

Physical ImpactsEconomic Outcomes

Statewide AgriculturalProduction Model (SWAP)

Lobell and Field (Stanford)Howitt et al. (UC Davis)

Uncertainty

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Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios: What is new?

6 models—several more than in 2006 Assessment

Drying trends by mid- century

Updated sea level projections higher than reported in 2006 2006 Assessm

ent

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1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Carb

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Years

Historical Emissions

A1

A2

B1

B2

A1FI

A1T

A2

B1

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Electricity Demand: Residential Sector

What is new?Better Data - Use of

detailed household level consumption data; Analysis and results at ZIP code level

Significantly higher estimated impacts--Statewide electricity demand would go up by about 7% in the next few decades due to climate change. By end of this century demand would increase by 20 % in the B1 scenario and by 50 percent in the A2 scenario. Results for the PCM model (low warming)

Simulated increase in per-household electricity consumption by zip code for the periods 2020–2039 (a)(c) and 2080–2099 (b)(d) in percent over simulations using climate data for the 1980–1999 period. Model NCAR PCM forced by IPCC SRES

B1 (a)(b) and A2 (c)(d).

Source: Aroonruengsawat and Auffhammer (2009)

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a) b)

c) d)

A2

2020 -2039 2080 - 2099

B1

A2

Coastal and San Francisco Bay Impacts due to Sea Level Rise What is new? (Not included in 2006 Assessment)

Detailed GIS analysis of the current population, infrastructure, and property at risk from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast. 

No matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of the California coast.

SF Bay Wastewater Treatment PlantsVulnerable to Sea Level Rise

GIS analysis of roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, wetlands, and power plants

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Ecosystem ServicesIn California, observations

of species migrations and range contractions driven by recent climate change are already documented

Across all broad taxonomic groups surveyed, projections suggest an increasing occurrence of negative biodiversity impacts

Under certain scenarios substantial reductions of aboveground carbon in terrestrial ecosystems occur

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B1 Emissions Scenario

Mammals

Wildfires What is new?More sophisticated

approach (e.g., consideration of the potential expansions of the urban/suburban footprints)

Simulations include more GCMs

Potential shifts in vegetation accounted for

Estimated risks significantly higher than reported in 2006

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Conclusions Negative impacts from future climate change

occur in nearly every sectorIn the next few decades, impacts are independent

of emission scenarios In-depth studies such as the ones included in this

assessment are needed to inform the development of robust adaptation strategies in California

Regional climate change and climate science is evolving rapidly. California is at the forefront but this work must continue

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Thanks!

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