GROWTH REPORTER EUROPE - Nielsen...Industry growths were lower in 2016 and the Volume Growth of +0.4% was the lowest since 2013. However there was stronger Nominal Growth and improving

GROWTH REPORTEREUROPEQUARTER 4, 2016

Feb 2016

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INTRODUCTIONThis report:

Growth Reporter [Insert Q4 2016]

Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe.

Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market.

Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels

Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels

Reports on the 4th Quarter and FY of 2016 Week 40, 2016 till week 52, 2016

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EUROPE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW GROWTH MARKET BUT MOMENTUM IMPROVED IN Q4

Industry growths were lower in 2016 and the Volume Growth of +0.4% was the lowest since 2013.

However there was stronger Nominal Growth and improving Volume Growth in Europe in the second half of 2016, which was driven by Central European countries and IBERIA.

Within Western Europe, there has been little momentum in volume sales and in 2016 there has been low basket inflation (Unit Value Growth) in Germany, France and Italy and deflation UK.

Discounter growth in Western Europe is +3% and remains ahead of Supermarket and Hypermarket growth (Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner.)

Context

Economic Growth in Europe is stable at +1.3% (source: IMF).

Consumer Confidence has fallen in 2016 in some large countries due to the uncertain political landscape (Source: Nielsen).

Trend

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Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics (Weighted average)

(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

0,7%1,1%

0,4%

-0,6%

1,6%

0,3%

1,5%1,9%

0,7%1,3%

0,8%

0,8% 0,1% 0,3%0,8%

1,8%1,3%

1,0%

2,3%

2,2%

1,7%

1,6%

1,7%

1,7%

1,7%

1,3%0,7%

0,7%0,8%

0,9%

2,6%2,4%

1,3%

1,7%

3,8%

2,0%

3,1%

3,6%

2,4%

3,0%

2,1%

1,5%

0,8%1,1%

1,8%

2014 2015 2016 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16

Volume change Unit value change Nominal Value Growth

REGIONAL SUMMARY – EUROPE

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100106

114 117 120125 129 132 136 139 141

100 103 104 106 107 108 108 108 109 111 111

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Value Volume

DEVELOPMENT INDEX TOTAL EUROPEBase 100 = 2006

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VALUE INDEX 2016 (base 100 = 2006)

89111113116117118120124125126128129130131133137139143

155167

299

0 50 100 150 200

GreeceSwitzerland

ItalyIrelandFinland

DenmarkGermanyPortugal

FranceAustria

BelgiumUK

Czech Rep.Netherlands

SpainSlovakiaSwedenHungaryNorwayPolandTurkey

DEVELOPMENT INDEX BY COUNTRYVOLUME INDEX 2016 (base 100 = 2006)

8294959797100100101102103105106109110112117118120

129139141

0 50 100 150 200

GreeceHungary

DenmarkFinland

GermanyIreland

UKNetherlands

AustriaBelgium

FranceItaly

SwedenSwitzerlandCzech Rep.

PortugalSlovakia

SpainNorwayPolandTurkey

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FY 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS FY 2015)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-9,8%

-2,0%

-0,3%

0,4%-0,8% 0,0%

1,5%

0,1%-1,5% -0,5% 0,4%

1,4%3,1% 2,6%

0,8% 0,9%

3,4%

-1,1%2,8%

2,4%

2,7%3,1%

-2,1%

0,0%-0,1%

1,2% 0,4%-0,6%

0,8% 2,6%

1,8% 1,2%0,9%

-0,7% -0,1%1,8%

1,7%

-0,7%

3,9%0,3% 1,2%

6,4%

-6,7%

-4,1%

-0,3%0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,8% 0,9% 1,1% 1,3% 1,6%

2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,6% 2,6% 2,8% 2,8% 3,1%3,6%

9,1%

Volume growth Unit value Nominal Value Growth

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Q4 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q4 2015)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-3,0% -2,6%-0,4%

-1,2%-1,1%

0,0%

0,4% 1,3%

-0,3%

2,1%1,4%

-0,1%

1,5%

2,9%

2,2%

3,9%

3,4%

3,6%

0,4%

2,3%4,1%

-0,5%-0,3%

0,6%

1,5% 1,7%0,7%

0,4%

0,2%

1,9%

-0,5%

0,3%

2,1%0,6%

0,4%1,3%

-0,3%

0,6% 0,6%

4,1%

2,4%

4,7%

-3,5%-2,9%

0,2% 0,3%0,6% 0,7% 0,8%

1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,7%2,0% 2,1%

3,3% 3,4% 3,6%4,0% 4,2%

4,5% 4,7%

8,8%

Volume growth Unit value Nominal Value Growth

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Denmark

Finland

Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

Estonia

Latvia

LithuaniaBelarus

Ukraine

RomaniaHungary

SlovakiaMoldova

Bulgaria

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Monte-negro

Serbia

Slovenia

Croatia Bosnia-Herze-govina

Mace-donia

Albania

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

Sweden

Nominal Growth

Q4 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q4 2015)

Growth Rate above Europe Average

Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average

Growth Rate below “Zero”

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Denmark

Finland

Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Belarus

Ukraine

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia Moldova

Bulgaria

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Monte-negro

Serbia

Slovenia


Mace-donia

Albania

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

Sweden

Unit Value Growth





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Denmark

Finland

Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Belarus

Ukraine

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia Moldova

Bulgaria

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Monte-negro

Serbia

Slovenia


Mace-donia

Albania

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

Sweden

Volume Growth





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Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Italy

Austria

Great Britain

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

GROWTH DRIVERS & BLOCKERS PER COUNTRY(VERSUS 2015)




CharcuterieChocolateMeals FreshSavoury BiscuitSeeds & Nuts

Oils EdibleMilkC. Soft DrinksSausages FreshTea Soft DR

ChocolateBeerFruit Juice FreshCrisps & ChipsSeeds & Nuts

YogurtFruit Juice AmbSugarMin WaterIce Cream

Min WaterBeerSmoked FishEnergy DrinksSeeds & Nuts

CoffeeMilkCheese FreshCharcuterieCream Fresh

BreadMin WaterBeerCharcuterieMeat Perish

Baby MilkFruit Juice AmbMilk FreshCoffeeFish Frozen

Meals FreshC. Soft DrinksBeerMin WaterMilk

Cheese FreshFruit Juice AmbWhiskyChilled DessertsMargarine

Meals FreshMeat PerishBeerChocolateSmoked Fish

C. Soft DrinksSugarSaint ProtectChilled DessertsAniseed Spirits

Min WaterCoffeeCheese FreshSeeds & NutsYogurt

Meat PerishMilkBreadDrink YogurtSugar

Meat PerishBeerBreadC. Soft DrinksDrink Yogurt

CharcuterieMilk FreshChocolateCream FreshMin Water

Meals FreshSparkling WineBeerMin WaterGin

Laundry DetMeat PerishCerealsBaby DiapersBread

CharcuterieOils EdibleBeerChocolateMeals Fresh

MilkDrink YogurtChoco DrinksSausages FreshC. Soft Drinks

**Source: nielsen Strategic Planner

DETAILS BY COUNTRY

MAJOR COUNTRIES

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FRANCEHighlights

French consumers remain pretty pessimistic - having in mind the terrorist threat, the high level of unemployment and the uncertainty of the presidential election.

Amongst shoppers, families, modest and young households tend to limit their FMCG consumption, egpreferring to empty their closet instead of purchasing more beauty or food items.

The French market remains impacted by the price war (deflation on national brands) and promotional focus, enabling shoppers to find very good deals and savings.

At the same time, consumers confirm their taste for innovations and quality products - making a kind of good balance between cheap, value offers on one hand, and premium items on the other one. Organic food and small brands are the best examples of this upgrading trend, with sales growing by 18% and 5%, respectively.

In terms of channels, e-commerce (click&drive) and convenience stores keep growing their number of stores and developing solutions for French shoppers, who tend to buy more often (in different channels) a smaller amount of items.

Nominal sales remained at a low level in Q4, with weak growth in volume - not enough after the drop in Q3.

As a result, 2016 has in France the less dynamic trend for years, despite the long-term premiumizationof the market.

Context

Trend

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FRANCEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,1%

0,6%

0,1%

1,8%2,0%

1,3%

0,6%

1,7%

0,8% 0,7%0,4%

0,8%

0,3% -0,2%

0,4%

0,2% 1,0%

0,8%

0,6% 0,2%

-0,7%

0,0%

0,2%

0,3%

1,0%

1,1%

1,4%

0,2% 0,9%0,4%

1,3%

1,6%

0,9%

2,4%2,2%

0,6% 0,6%

1,9%

1,1%

1,7%1,5%

2,2%

0,5%0,7%

0,8%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16

Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth

Click & Drive channel included from 2013 data (2014 trends)Convenience Stores included from 2014 data (2015 trends);

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GERMANYHighlights

In 2017 the upturn is likely to continue. Four working days less lead to a weakened increase in GDP to an estimated growth of + 1.3%. Without this special effect, experts estimate, the German economy will expand at almost the same rate as in 2016.

Context

Trend

The German economy continues to develop positively. The expected economic growth for 2016 is +1.9%.

Apart from higher residential investments, 80% of the growth is accounted for by the expansion of public and private consumption expenditure.

The FMCG market can not quite take the positive momentum of the third quarter at the end of 2016 and is only + 0.3% higher than in the fourth quarter. Although there was a sharp price increase, the volume sold remained below the previous year's level.

In particular the weaker sales development of the hypermarkets over 2.500 m2 and the supermarkets up to 1.000 m2 curb the market - and this, although in the hypermarkets the promotion pressure has been increased. That is to say, a larger proportion of sales were generated through promotions than in the previous year.

An average price increase of 28% makes dairy products the strongest growth category.

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GERMANYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,1%

0,8%

-0,8%

-2,4%

2,0%

-0,8%

0,4%

2,4%

-0,2%

1,1%

-0,2%

-1,5%

-0,6%-0,3%

-1,2%

1,6%

1,3%

1,2%

3,0%

1,5%

1,0%0,9%

0,4%

1,7%

1,4%

1,7%

1,2% 0,9% 1,1%1,5%

1,5%

2,1%

0,4%0,6%

3,5%

0,2%

1,3%

2,8%

1,5%

2,5%

1,5%

-0,3%

0,3%

0,8%

0,3%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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ITALYHighlights

In the last quarter Nominal sales growth has been positive, supported by the growth in volumes, however the results has been affected by the still negative Prices evolution.

Prices decrease, are partially driven by the deflation that has still characterized our economy, but also by consumers tendency to basket downgrade.

Consumers are still undertaken strategies to saves on Grocery. The recourse to promotions (which intensity is almost stable vs YA) and the increasing tendency of switching on MDD or follower brand, are strategies saving volumes but affecting retailer values mix

Context

Trend

Q4: Nominal Sales growth (1.63%) and Volume growth (2.09%) so Unit change ( inflation)

YE: Nominal Sales growth (0.84%) and Volume growth (1.46%) so Unit change ( inflation) -0.61%

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ITALYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,5%

1,0%1,5%

-2,5%

1,8%

-0,6%-0,9%

1,9%

-0,2%

0,9% 1,1%

0,4%

2,1% 1,4%

2,1%

-0,2%

0,5%

-0,6%

0,2%-0,1%

-0,6%-0,2%

0,0%

0,6%

1,1%0,3%

-0,3%

-0,9% -1,0%-0,5%

-0,7%

1,5%

0,8%

-2,3%

1,8%

-1,2% -1,2%

1,9%

0,4%

2,0%

1,4%

0,1%

1,2%

0,3%

1,6%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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UKHighlights

Despite economic and political uncertainty around 'Brexit’ , shopper sentiment was unaffected in Q4 as real incomes continued to rise in 2016 and unemployment is at the lowest level in a decade (4.8%).

The Supermarket price war continued during the year with the savings passed onto shoppers, which helped to maintain overall demand in FMCG

Promotional spend continues to fall and hit 27% of sales in December 2016 with most retailers (and many brands) reducing their reliance on multi buy in favour of simpler and more transparent price cuts.

With improving growth for premium private label, food to go and treats and indulgences, Christmas 2016 was the best Christmas for retailers since 2012.

Shopper`s continue to move towards shopping `little and often 'and the average spend per visit is still falling. However, large stores ( >2,500 sq m selling) still account for 50% of sales and Convenience stores (< 300 sq m selling) 25% of sales.

Nominal Sales growth improved in Q4 to +0.7% ; the first positive quarter of growth in almost 3 years.

Volume growth of -0.3% during 2016 also improved, to 0% during Q4.

Deflation continued for a 3rd year running but the underlying trend is for the industry to return to inflationary growth in the first 6 months of 2017.

Context

Trend

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UKFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,9%

-0,3% -0,3%

-3,8%

-1,1%

-2,5%

-0,5%

0,5%

-0,4% -0,5% -0,6%

0,4%-1,1%

-0,5%0,0%

1,3%

-0,2%

0,0%

2,2% 2,3%

0,7%0,2%

-0,7%-0,4%

0,2% 0,1%0,1%

-0,5%

-0,2%

0,7%

-0,6% -0,5%-0,3%

-1,6%

1,2%

-1,8%

-0,3% -0,2%

-0,8%

-0,3%-0,5%

0,5%

-1,6%

-0,7%

0,7%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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SPAINHighlights

Context

GDP continues growing above 3 %, tourism is beating records once and again and internal consumption is also positive.

Unemployment continues being Spanish major social and economic concern, although unemployment rate has decreased significantly in the last 3 years.

Consumer Confidence Index rose also in Q4, to reach pre-crisis levels. FMCG market in Spain continues showing a very positive performance, supported by a solid volume increase. Q4 results are a consequence of a quite good Christmas campaign.

Prices in FMCG are stable, although the situation may change in the short term due to petrol prices increase

Trend

In Q2 Nominal Sales growth remained same in Q4 to +3.6% - the highest of Q4 in last 3 years and Sales in volume are increasing +3.9% and price level starts to be negative after several quarters.

On FY 2016, FMCG have increased +3.1%, which is the highest increase in the last 4 years.

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SPAINFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,4%1,6%

2,8%

1,2%0,9%

2,1%

1,0%

0,2%

1,1%

1,9%1,3%

2,2% 1,7%

3,5%3,9%

-0,7%

0,9%

0,3%

0,6%

-0,6%

-1,4%-1,1%

0,7%

0,9%

1,2%

1,4%

0,8%

0,4%

0,1%

-0,3%

0,7%

2,4%

3,1%

1,8%

0,3%

0,7%

-0,1%

0,9%

2,0%

3,0%2,7%

3,1%

2,1%

3,6% 3,6%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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PORTUGALHighlights

The favourable climate of the summer and the Football European Championship, helped an acceleration of consumption in 2nd half of year 2016

Since Q2 2016, price trend starts to be positive after several quarters of deflation.

Despite the fact there is still a very high promotional activity in Portugal (44% of FMCG sales), Portuguese consumer is now much more confident than in the past, and more willing to buy premium categories and products.

Christmas season was very dynamic for FMCG sales.

Nominal Sales have increased by 4% in Q4. Sales in volume are increasing 3.4% with a positive price effect of 0.6pp

On total year 2016, FMCG have increased 2.5%, which is the highest increase in the last 8 years.

Context

Trend

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PORTUGALFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,5%

1,8%

2,6%

1,2% 1,1%

-1,5% -1,4%

-0,1%

1,7%

3,1%

2,3%

3,6%

1,2%

2,7%3,4%

-0,6%

-0,3%-0,1%

-1,0% -1,0%

-0,9%-0,4%

0,5%

-0,4% -0,6%-1,3% -1,8%

-0,9%

0,5%

0,6%

-1,1%

1,4%

2,5%

0,2%0,0%

-2,4%

-1,8%

0,5%

1,3%

2,5%

0,9%

1,8%

0,3%

3,2%

4,0%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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NETHERLANDSHighlights

Volume growth is limited in recent years in the Netherlands. An explanation for this is the recovery of Horeca after the economic crisis.

In addition, Supermarkets no longer seem to take advantage of the decline of specialty stores. After many years of decline, specialty stores are stabilizing.

Another factor is the growth of online and discount formulas like Action, who sell general merchandise but also several grocery categories.

Price levels are increasing in almost all Supergroups, with the exception of Homecare and Personal care.

Context

Trend

Nominal Sales growth in 2016 of +1.3% is slightly higher than in 2015, but this is still significantly lower than the trend in the years 2007-2012.

"Price" has more impact on growth with +1.8%, which is higher than the level in 2015 (1.2%)

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NETHERLANDSFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,9%

0,0%

-0,5%

-1,3% -1,2%

-0,5% -0,6%-0,2% -0,1% 0,0%

0,2%

-0,6% -1,0%

-1,0%

-0,3%

1,5% 1,2%1,8%

0,9%

1,8% 1,7%2,1% 2,0%

0,8% 0,9%

1,1%

1,3%

1,9% 2,0% 1,9%

0,6%

1,2%1,3%

-0,4%

0,6%

1,2%

1,4%

1,7%

0,7%0,9%

1,4%

0,7%0,9%

1,0%

1,5%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


OTHER COUNTRIES

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AUSTRIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,9%

1,7%

0,4%

-2,3%

-0,2%

-3,5%

-0,3%0,9% 0,4%

3,9%

1,4% 1,4%-1,1%

-0,7%

2,2%1,7%

2,0%

1,2% 1,8%2,7% 2,5% 2,3%

2,4%2,3%

1,9%

1,6%1,2%

0,9% 1,3%

1,3%

0,8%

3,7%

1,6%

-0,5%

2,5%

-1,0%

2,0%

3,3%2,7%

5,9%

3,0%2,6%

-0,2%

0,6%

3,4%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


** Only Grocery retail from Q1 14-Q4 15, for all other periods Grocery and Drug retail

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31

BELGIUMFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,2%

0,0%

-1,6%

1,7%

3,7%

-0,6% -0,2%

1,4%

-0,1% 0,2%-0,8%

-1,7% -2,9%-0,8% -1,1%

1,2%

1,2%

2,6% 1,0%

2,0%

1,4%0,4%

0,3%

0,4%

1,5% 2,3%3,4% 2,9%

2,3%1,7%

2,4%

1,2% 1,1%

2,7%

5,7%

0,8%0,2%

1,7%

0,3%

1,7% 1,5% 1,7%

0,0%

1,5%

0,6%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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32

CZECH REPUBLICFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,2%

1,7%

3,1%

-0,9%

1,2%

-1,5%

-0,2%

1,2%1,7%

3,3%

0,8%

3,0%

3,0% 2,2%

3,6%2,9%

0,4%

-0,7%

3,4%

3,2%

2,9%2,6%

1,3%0,7%

0,2%

-0,2%-1,2%

-1,3%-0,7%

0,6%

2,7%

2,1%2,4% 2,5%

4,4%

1,4%

2,4% 2,5% 2,4%

3,5%

0,6%

1,8% 1,7%1,5%

4,2%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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DENMARKFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,0%0,7%

0,0%

0,9%

1,7%

1,0%

0,3%

0,7%

0,1%

0,6%

1,2%

0,1%

1,0%

-0,4% -0,4%

0,0%0,1%

0,4%

0,4%

0,2%

0,2%

-0,4%

0,1%

-0,2% -0,2%

0,3%

1,5%

-0,7%

0,0%

0,6%

1,0%0,8%

0,4%

1,3%

1,8%

1,2%

-0,1%

0,9%

0,0%

0,5%

1,5%1,7%

0,3%

-0,4%

0,2%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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34

FINLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-2,0%

0,2%

-2,0% -2,1%

0,2%

-5,0%

-1,2%

0,8%

-0,5%

2,6%1,7%

-0,7% -1,6%

-3,4% -3,0%

0,5%

-2,2%

-2,1%

2,8%

-1,3%

1,9%

-0,4% -3,0% -1,7% -2,4% -2,7% -1,9%

-3,0%

-2,5%

-0,5%

-1,5%-2,0%

-4,1%

0,8%

-1,1%

-3,1%

-1,6%

-2,2% -2,2%

0,2%

-1,0%

-2,6%

-4,6%

-6,0%

-3,5%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


FMCG excluding tobacco & magazines

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GREECEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,7%0,1% 3,1%

-0,5% -0,7% -0,6% -0,8% -1,7% -1,5%0,9%

3,4% 5,4% 4,5%2,5%

-0,3%-0,7% -0,9%

-9,8%

-0,7%0,7% 0,4%

-3,1% -0,5%

2,5%

-2,3% -2,6%

-12,2% -15,3%-8,7%

-2,6%-1,4% -0,8%

-6,7%

-1,2%0,0% -0,2%

-3,9%

-2,2%

1,0%

-1,4%

0,8%

-6,8%

-10,7%

-6,2%

-2,9%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16

Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth

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36

HUNGARYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

3,4%4,1%

-1,1%

1,6%

4,2%

2,5%3,2%

6,6%

2,2%

6,1%

1,7%

-1,6%-0,6%

-2,5%

0,4%

1,7%

2,6%

3,9%1,9%

2,2%

1,9%1,7%

1,7%

2,8%

1,8%

4,1%

3,2%

3,3%

4,9%

4,1%

5,1%

6,7%

2,8%3,5%

6,4%

4,4%4,9%

8,3%

5,0%

7,9%

5,8%

1,6%

2,7%2,4%

4,5%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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IRELANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,5%

1,7% 1,4%

0,2%

-4,0%

-1,4%

1,1%

-2,3%

0,3%

2,4%

4,6%

1,1%

1,3% 0,3%

1,5%0,6%

0,3%0,9%

0,9%2,3%

0,8%

0,6%1,8%

0,4%

0,0%

-0,6%

1,1%

1,3%

1,2%

0,6%

1,2%

2,0%2,3%

1,0%

-1,7%

-0,6%

1,7%

-0,5%

0,7%

2,4%

4,0%

2,2%2,6%

1,5%

2,1%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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NORWAYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

2,8%

1,7%0,9%

1,8%

4,2%

2,6% 2,5%3,2%

1,2% 1,3% 1,4%

2,5%

1,4%0,0% -0,1%

1,5%

1,3%

1,7%

2,1%

1,8%

1,7%

0,5%

-0,1%

1,0%

2,3% 2,1%0,8%

2,1%

2,0% 2,1%

4,3%

3,0%2,6%

3,9%

6,0%

4,3%

3,0% 3,1%

2,2%

3,6% 3,5%3,3%

3,5%

2,0% 2,0%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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39

POLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,3%

2,7% 2,4%

-2,7%

2,2%

-1,2%

3,1%2,7%

1,7%

4,5%

1,2%

4,4%

1,8% 0,9%

2,3%1,0%

-0,2%

1,2%

1,7%

1,4%

1,2%

0,2%

-0,1% -0,1% -0,5%

0,1%

0,5%

1,2%

1,5%

2,4%

1,2%

2,4%

3,6%

-1,0%

3,6%

0,0%

3,2%

2,6%

1,5%

4,0%

1,4%

4,8%

2,9%

2,3%

4,7%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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SLOVAKIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

2,5%

1,7%

3,4%

0,7%

3,7%

0,7%

3,6%3,3%

1,1%

3,8%

0,2%

4,1%

1,2%

4,3%

2,9%

0,2%

0,5%

-0,7%

1,1%

0,8%

0,3%

-0,1% -0,1%

0,3%

0,3%

0,2%

-0,8% -0,2%-0,8%

0,4%

2,7%

2,3%

2,8%

1,8%

4,5%

1,0%

3,5%3,2%

1,4%

4,1%

0,4%

3,3%

1,0%

3,5%3,3%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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SWEDENFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,1%1,4%

0,8% 0,6%

3,1%

1,9%

-0,2%

2,4%

0,1%

1,0%

2,3%

0,4%

2,0% 1,0%1,3%

0,8%

2,5%

1,8%

0,8%

0,2%

0,6%

1,4%

1,8%

2,6%

2,8%

2,6%

1,9%

1,2%

0,6% 0,2%

1,9%

3,9%

2,6%

1,4%

3,3%

2,5%

1,2%

4,2%

2,7%

3,8%

4,9%

2,3%

3,2%

1,6% 1,5%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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SWITZERLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,1%-0,3%

0,4%

1,2%

-0,3% -0,3%

0,5%

-1,3%

0,9%

0,1%

-0,7%

0,8%

0,3%

0,3%

1,4%1,1%

-1,0%

-0,1%

1,5%

0,7%0,4%

0,5%

-1,1%

-1,3%-1,6%

-1,6%

-1,5% -1,2%-0,7%

0,3%

1,2%

-1,3%

0,3%

2,7%

0,4%0,1%

1,0%

-2,4%

-0,4%

-1,5%

-2,3%

-0,7%-0,9%

-0,4%

1,7%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


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TURKEYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

5,4%

2,9% 2,7%3,4%

5,4% 4,7%

7,9%

5,0%3,6% 2,9%

0,3%1,2%

2,1%

2,4%4,1%

8,2%

9,4%

6,4%6,4%

8,1% 9,0%

9,0%

9,7%

9,5%9,5%

9,2% 8,5%6,8% 5,7%

4,7%

13,6%

12,3%

9,1%9,9%

13,5% 13,7%

16,9%

14,7%

13,1%12,4%

9,5% 9,7%8,9%

8,1%8,8%

2014 2015 2016 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16


Due to exclusion of Alcohol and Tobacco, history is updated from Q3 13

EXTENDED EUROPE

Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Israel Latvia

Lithuania Macedonia Romania Russia Serbia Slovenia Ukraine

Based on Bimonthly reporting cyclesCategories covered in food and drug channels

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BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA

-0,5%1,6%

0,1%

-2,5%-4,5%

3,0%4,0%

3,0%

-8,4%

-4,0%

1,0%

7,8%

0,0%-0,8%

1,1%

-1,4%-2,9%

-1,3%0,1%

-0,2%

-0,5% -0,7%-1,8%

-1,7%

-2,6%

-2,6% -3,5%-1,4%

-1,5%-0,9%

-1,9%-1,3% -1,1%

-2,4%

-4,7%

2,5%3,3%

1,2%

-10,1%

-6,6%

-1,5%

4,3%

-1,4%-2,2%

0,3%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr-Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16


Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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BULGARIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,9%

2,4%1,1%

-1,6%

-5,5%-6,2%

0,3% 0,1%

2,0%

3,8%2,8%

1,1%1,6%

1,1% 1,1%0,3%

-0,5%

1,6%

0,7% 1,0% 1,5% 0,5%0,3%

0,1%

-0,9% -0,8%-0,1%

1,5%1,3% 1,4%

1,1%

2,0%2,7%

-0,9%

-4,5% -4,7%

0,8%0,4%

2,0%

2,9%

2,0%

1,1%

3,1%2,5% 2,5%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr- Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr- Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16


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CROATIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,7%

2,3% 2,3%1,2%

0,1%

2,9%

-1,6%

-0,4%

-3,1%

1,8% 1,8%

3,2% 4,3%1,7%

0,9%

-2,8%

-0,2% -1,2% -1,2%-0,1%

-1,2%

-2,4%

-3,5%

-2,4%

-1,1%

0,5%

0,1%

-2,6%

-1,1%

0,2%

-4,4%

2,1%

1,1%

0,0% -0,1%

1,7%

-3,9% -3,9%

-5,5%

0,8%

2,3%

3,3%

1,7%

0,6%1,1%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr -Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr -Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr -Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr -Aug16

Aug-Dec16


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ESTONIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

2,0%

0,7%

-1,0%

2,4% 2,4%2,8%

0,4%1,1%

0,7%0,1% 0,1%

1,3%

-1,5%

-2,4%-1,5%

2,8%

0,5% 2,7%

3,9%3,2% 2,5%

1,9%1,0%

1,2%

0,2% 0,6%

0,9%2,4%

3,6%4,3%

4,8%

1,2%

1,8%

6,3%

5,7%5,3%

2,3%2,0% 1,9%

0,3%0,7%

2,2%

0,8%1,2%

2,8%

2014 2015 2016 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16


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49

-1,0%

0,4%1,4%

-2,1%

0,3%-0,5%

-1,9%

3,0%

-2,5%

0,5% 0,6%

-1,7%

4,9%

1,8%0,6%

-1,6%

-1,1%-1,0%

0,3%-0,7%

-2,0%

-3,8%

-2,8%

-2,0%

-1,1%

1,8%

0,5% -0,5% -0,5%

-3,4%

-2,6%

-0,7%

0,4%

-1,9%

-0,4%

-2,5%

-5,7%

0,1%

-4,5%

-0,6%

2,4%

-1,2%

4,4%

1,2%

-2,8%

2014 2015 2016 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16


ISRAELFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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KAZAKHSTANFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

8,9%

-7,4%

1,0% 1,3% 0,9%-2,2%

-9,7%-13,5% -11,8%

-7,0% -5,8%-3,0% 4,2%

7,0%4,1%

0,6%

13,2%

6,2%

14,1% 13,9% 13,2%10,4%

4,9% 3,1% 2,3%5,3%

7,5% 11,9%

15,8%

17,2%

17,8%

14,7%

22,1%

-1,3%

15,2% 15,2% 14,1%

8,2%

-4,8%

-10,4% -9,5%

-1,7%

1,8%

8,9%

20,0%

24,3%21,8%

15,3%

2014 2015 2016 ON-ND2014

DJ-JF2015

FM-MA2015

AM-MJ2015

JJ-JA2015

AS-SO2015

ON-ND2015

DJ-JF2016

FM-MA2016

AM-MJ2016

JJ-JA2016

AS-SO2016

ON-ND2016


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51

LATVIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,1%1,5%

0,0%

1,2%

0,4%

1,8%

0,3%

3,4%

1,1% 1,3%

0,2% 0,1%

0,2%-0,1%

-0,4%

2,0%

-0,5%

2,0%

2,9%

2,9%

1,9%

0,9%

-0,4% -0,6%-1,1%

0,0%

0,9%

1,8% 2,3%

3,1%

3,1%

1,0%

2,0%

4,1%

3,4%3,7%

1,1%

3,0%

0,5%0,2% 0,2%

1,0%

1,9%2,2%

2,7%

2014 2015 2016 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16


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LITHUANIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,8%

-0,4%

-3,4%

1,9%0,8%

1,7%2,6%

-1,0% -0,9%0,4% -0,2%

5,3%

-3,0%

-7,3%-6,1%

2,1%

1,7% 2,8%

2,3%

2,4%2,2%

1,7%

1,9% 1,9% 1,4% 1,9%

2,4%

2,8% 3,5% 3,0%

3,9%

1,4%

-0,5%

4,2%3,2%

3,9%4,4%

0,9% 1,0%1,8% 1,7%

5,4%

-0,2%

-3,8%-3,1%

2014 2015 2016 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16


Historical data has been changed as there is a change in Total Country selection from 2014 onwards

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MONTENEGROFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-20,5%

0,4% 2,2%

-5,6%

-19,9%

-34,4%-30,6%

-16,8%-13,9%

-11,1%-6,1%

-0,3%2,9%

3,4%

-3,5%1,6%

-5,9%

0,9%2,4% 3,3% 3,6%

0,9% 2,5% 1,5% 1,2% 0,3% -0,4% -0,1%

2,3%4,3%

-18,8%

-5,5%-3,1% -3,2%

-16,5%

-30,8%-29,7%

-14,3%-12,5%

-9,9%

-5,8%

-0,7%

2,7%

5,7%

0,7%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr-Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16


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0,5%

8,1%10,8%

1,5%-0,4%

1,6%3,6%

8,9%

12,2%14,2%

10,9%8,9%

-0,8%

-2,5%-2,4%

-1,1% -1,3% -1,2%

0,6%

-2,8%-5,8% -6,6%

-2,4%

0,1%

-0,3%

5,6%

8,4%

0,4%

-1,7%

0,4%

4,2%

6,2% 6,3%7,5%

8,5% 9,0%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16 Aug-Dec 16


ROMANIA (*) Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

(*) reworked data with all the major RMS categories includedexcept for: Cigarettes, Make-up&Incontinence, reduction of VAT from 24% to 9% for food categories. New chains integration.

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RUSSIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,6% -2,0% -1,4%0,0%

2,1%0,8%

-1,0% -1,0% -2,0%0,4%

-3,1% -3,5%

-1,9%

-1,5%0,1%

-2,7%

1,1%-1,2% -0,9% -0,7%

-3,8%

10,3%

15,0%

8,3% 9,0%

9,5%10,8%

10,6% 11,0% 10,7%12,1%

15,0%14,7% 14,3% 13,8% 14,0%

11,8%

8,4%7,2% 7,6% 7,7% 6,9%

8,7%

13,0%

6,9%

9,0%

11,6% 11,6%

9,6% 9,9%8,7%

12,5% 12,0%11,3%

12,5% 12,4%

14,1%

9,1% 9,5%

6,1%6,7% 7,0%

3,1%


Minor changes in back data are due to transition of Cigars, Cigarettes and Tobacco to CIP

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SERBIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-5,4%

0,5% -0,3% -1,7%

-7,8%-10,2% -10,6%

-4,0%-1,4%

1,4%-0,4%

2,3%-0,1%

0,6%-1,2%

2,7% 0,9% 4,0%

17,4%14,0%

6,0%4,3%

2,3% 1,4%-1,7%

0,9%

1,7% 4,6% 3,7% 3,6%

-2,7%

1,3%

3,7%

15,7%

6,2%

-4,1%

-6,3%

-1,7%0,0% -0,4%

0,4%

3,9% 4,4% 4,2%2,4%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr-Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16


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SLOVENIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,6%

1,5%

-2,5%

0,8%

-3,2%

-4,6%

-2,6%

-1,2% -1,0% -1,0%

3,1%2,5%

0,7%

-2,5%

-4,2%-0,5%

-0,8%

-0,6%

-1,4%

-1,1%

0,1%0,6%

-0,9% -1,4%-0,7%

-1,0%-0,5%

-0,9%0,0% 0,3%

-2,1%

0,7%

-2,7%

-0,5%

-4,3% -4,5%

-2,0% -2,0%-2,4%

-1,8%

2,0% 2,0%

-1,6%

-2,5%

-3,9%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr-Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16


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UKRAINEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,1%

-10,1%-5,7%

18,3%

10,8%8,0%

2,9%-0,6% -1,7%

-5,8%-12,1% -12,3%

-9,1%-3,6% -3,5%

11,2%

35,8%

16,6%

3,3%

3,1%3,8%

4,1% 10,5%

18,5%

30,0%

40,7%

36,6%27,7%

12,2% 9,9%

11,3%

25,7%

10,9%

21,6%

13,9%11,8%

7,0%9,9%

16,9%

24,2%

28,6%

24,2%

18,6%

8,6%6,4%

2014 2015 2016 Dec-Apr13

Apr-Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16


APPENDIX

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APPENDIX: GLOSSARY

• Nominal value growth: • Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product

categories

• Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change): • Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories

• The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc)

• The change in average price per unit may result from: • Price changes of individual products • Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less

promotions, etc. • Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience

outlets, etc. • Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of

market dynamics.

• The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behavior.

• Volume growth:• Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products

• The three components are related:• ValueGrowth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth

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APPENDIX: CALCULATIONS

• For each country, the value growth index V and the UnitValue growth index I have been calculated for each available product category c.

• The overall UnitValue Index across all categories has been calculated as a weighted average of the category indexes where each category is weighted according to its share in the covered expenditures in the end period (Young Index).

• Volume, Value, UnitValue growth indexes are multiplicatively related to each other :

ValueGrowth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth

For ease of presentation, the relative volume change (in percentages) has been approximated by taking simple differences (difference is immaterial) :

VolumeChange = ValueChange – UnitValue change

• More detail on subject, see :

• ILO Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice.

• http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/guides/cpi/index.htm

∑∑ ==

−−

=

−=

−−

−

−

c

ctc

ctt

cttt

ctt

ctt

tcSalesValuetcSalesValuewIwI

tceSalesVolumtcSalesValue

tceSalesVolumtcSalesValue

I

tcSalesValuetcSalesValueV

],[],[

]1,[]1,[

],[],[

]1,[],[

;1;1

;1

;1

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/guides/cpi/index.htm

Documents

GROWTH REPORTER EUROPE - Nielsen...Industry growths were lower in 2016 and the Volume Growth of +0.4% was the lowest since 2013. However there was stronger Nominal Growth and improving