7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 1/8

!"#$%&'(#!%"

!" $ %&"'&()*&"+," ,-.(./&"' +$" 01&'',( 223-.(./&- $($45"&" -$((.'

61.7&%, $ -./64,', '1,$'/,(' .8 61.94,/" .% ,-.(./&- 6.4&-5: 23;'1$,-.(./&-<

,4,/,('" $1, &(7.47,%= ,"6,-&$445 '+, -+.&-, .8 $&/"> $(%> '. "./, ,;',('> '+,

-+.&-, .8 /,$("> 9*'> (,7,1'+,4,""> $($45"&" -$( /$?, "./, &/6.1'$('

-.('1&9*'&.("<<@ A&/9,1),( BC> 6:DE: F*1 .9G,-'&7, &" '. &44*"'1$', '+&" 8$/&4&$1'+,/, 95 /,$(" .8 $ +&)+45 &%,$4&H,% ,;$/64,> $4". %1$0( 81./ A&/9,1),( BC>

66: ICJ@ICKE: A+, 61,",('$'&.( 0&44 ,/6+$"&H, '+, &(',164$5 9,'0,,( '+,

,-.(./&- $($45"&" $(% '+, ,-.(./&- 6.4&-5@/$?,1:

L, -$( -.("&%,1 $( ,-.(./&"' 0+. +$" 9,,( $""&)(,% '+, '$"? .8 61.7&%&()

'+, $($45"&" 1,4,7$(' '. '+, 8.1/$'&.( .8 /$-1.,-.(./&- 6.4&-5: L, "*66.", '+$'

'+, &(&'&$4 81*&' .8 +&" 1,",$1-+ &" '+, "6,-&8&-$'&.( .8 '+, 8.44.0&() "'1*-'*1$4

/.%,4=

MNO PQ3RS@T

MIO 3Q!RUP

MVO TQWPMCO XQT@S

L+,1, PQ&(-./,> 3Q,;6,(%&'*1,> SQ,;6.1'"> TQ&/6.1'"> !Q$*'.(./.*"

,;6,(%&'*1,> UQ/$1)&($4 61.6,("&'5 '. "6,(%> WQ/$1)&($4 61.6,("&'5 '. &/6.1'>

$(% XQ 9$4$(-, .8 6$5/,('" %,8&-&': A+&" "5"',/ .8 8.*1 ,Y*$'&.("> 0, "+$44

$""*/,> $%,Y*$',45 %,"-1&9," '+, 0.1?&() .8 '+, ,-.(./5 &( '+, 1,-,(' 6$"':

*%$+(,-#!".

Z*66.", '+,( '+$' '+, ,-.(./&"' 61.-,,%" '. 8.1,-$"' 6,18.1/$(-, .8 '+,

,-.(./5 *(%,1 '+, $""*/6'&.( '+$' '+, "'1*-'*1$4 6$1$/,',1" U $(% W -.('&(*,

$' '+,&1 +&"'.1&-$4 7$4*," $(% '+, 7$1&$94," ! $(% S '$?, .( 61,%,',1/&(,% 7$4*,":

[&7,( '+,", %$'$ +, 0&44 9, $94, '. ".47, '+, 8.*1 ,Y*$'&.( "'1*-'*1$4 /.%,4 8.1'+, 8.*1 *(?(.0(" P> \> T> $(% X@ '+$' &" '. 8.1,-$"' '+,&1 7$4*,": \.1 '+&"

6*16.", &' 0&44 9, -.(7,(&,(' '. ,;61,"" P &( ',1/" .8 '+, %$'$> '+$' &" '. .9'$&(

&'" 1,%*-,% 8.1/ ,Y*$'&.(=

MJO PQ!!! !! !!!!M!RSO

'+, 7$4*," .8 3> T> $(% X 9,&() '+,( 1,$%&45 .9'$&(,% 81./ '+, "'1*-'*1$4

,Y*$'&.(" MIO@MCO:

A. "+$16,( '+, &44*"'1$'&.( 0, /$5 $" 0,44 $""*/, (*/,1&-$4 7$4*,":

Z*66.", '+,( '+$' '+, %$'$ 8.1 '+, 8.1,-$"'&() 61.94,/ $1,=

UQ ]:^ WQ]:V !QI] SQI]

A+, 1,"*4'&() 8.1,-$"'" $1, 1,$%&45 -./6*',%=

PQ!!! !!!! !!!!!!MI]RI]OQ!

!!! C]Q^]

3QI]RM]:^O^]Q I]RKC Q^C

TQM]:VO^] QIC

XQIC@I] QC

*!/+& #,$.+#

Z*66.", (,;' '+$'> +$7&() 61.7&%,% '+&" 6&-'*1, .8 '+, 61."6,-'&7, "'$', .8

$88$&1"> '+, ,-.(./&"' &" &(8.1/,% '+$' '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 &" %&""$'&"8&,%@(.'

9,-$*", .8 $(5 .9G,-'&.( '. '+, $($45"&"> 9*' 1$'+,1 9,-$*", '+, 8.1,-$"' 7$4*, .8

P &" -.("&%,1,% *(%,"&1$945 4.0: Z*66.", &(%,,% '+$' '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 "6,-&8&,"

$  !"#$% '()*$' 7$4*, 8.1 P $(% +$" $' +&" %&"6."$4 -.('1.4 .7,1 '+, "+,')-.$+'  

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 2/8

7$1&$94, !: A+*" P &" '. 9, '1,$',% $" $ %$'*/ 1$'+,1 '+$' $( *(?(.0(> 0+&4, ! &"

'. 9, '1,$',% $" $( *(?(.0( 1$'+,1 '+$( $ %$'*/: 22A+, 4.)&- .8 8&(%&() '+, 9,"'

,-.(./&- 6.4&-5> '+$' &"> 8&(%&() '+, ,;',(' '. 0+&-+ -,1'$&( $&/" &"> &( $ ",(",> $(

&(7,1"&.( .8 '+, 4.)&- '. 0+&-+ '+, ,-.(./&"' &" $--*"'./,%<<@A&/9,1),(

BC>66:^@DE

[&7,( '+, (,0 ",' .8 %$'$ U> W> P> $(% S '+, $($45"' 0&44 9, $94, '. ".47, '+,8.*1@,Y*$'&.( "'1*-'*1$4 /.%,4 8.1 '+, (,0 ",' .8 8.*1 *(?(.0(" !> 3> T $(% X:

\.1 '+&" 6*16.", &' 0&44 9, /."' -.(7,(&,(' '. ,;61,"" ! &( ',1/" .8 '+, %$'$ 95

'*1(&() MJO $1.*(% &('.

MKO !Q MN@URWO P@S_

`6.( ".4*'&.( .8 0+&-+ '+, 7$4*," 3> T> $(% X $1, $)$&( .9'$&($94, 81./ '+,

"'1*-'*1$4 ,Y*$'&.(" MIO@MCO:

\.1' '+, (*/,1&-$4 ,;$/64,> 0, '$?, '+, '$1),' 7$4*, .8 P '. 9, NC]> ".

'+$' '+, %$'$ 8.1 '+&" .(,@8&;,%@'$1),'a.(,@&("'1*/,(' 61.94,/ $1,

UQ ]:^ WQ]:V PQNC] SQI]

$(% '+, 1,"*4'&() ".4*'&.(" $1, 1,$%&45 -./6*',% '. 9,=!QMN@]:^R]:VO NC]@I]QJ]

3QJ]RM]:^O NJ]Q QNKI

TQM]:VO NC] QCI

XQCI@I] QII

A+, ?,5 1,"*4' 61.7&%,% 95 '+, $($45"' &" .8 -.*1", '+, ".4*'&.( '. MbO

0+&-+ &(8.1/" '+, 6.4&-5 /$?,1 .8 '+, 7$4*, .8 '+, &("'1*/,(' 1,Y*&1,% '.

$-+&,7, '+, 8&;,% '$1),': c(%,,% MKO -$( 9, *",% (.' .(45 '. .9'$&( "*-+ $ .(,@

"+.' $("0,1> 9*' $4". '. 61.7&%, $ ),(,1$4 ,;61,""&.( 8.1 '+, 1,4$'&.( 9,'0,,(

,(%" $(% /,$(" &( '+, 61,",(' -.(',;': A+$' &"> /$5 9, 1,$% $" ,;61,""&() ! $" $

8*(-'&.( .8 P> $""*/&() U> W> $(% S $1, )&7,(: A+&" ,;61,""&.(@ 6,1+$6"61,",(',% )1$6+&-$445 &( \&)*1, NN@0&44 9, .8 7$4*, &8 '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 +$" $

",-.(% '+.*)+'" $9.*' '+, %,"&1,% 4,7,4 .8 P: c( 6$1'&-*4$1> &' &(%&-$',% '+$' ,7,15

*(&' &(-1,$", &( P 0.*4% 1,Y*&1, $ MN@URWO &(-1,$", &( !:

*0+/!10+ #,$.+#-

A. 9, "*1,> '+, .'+,1 -./6.(,('" .8 '+, ".4*'&.( /$5 $4". 9, .8 &(',1,"'

'. '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1: c( 6$1'&-*4$1 "*66.", '+$' +, $)$&( ,;61,"","

%&""$'&"8$-'&.(@ '+&" '&/, 9,-$*", '+, 4,7,4 .8 '+, 9$4$(-,@.8@6$5/,('" %,8&-&' X

$"".-&$',% 0&'+ '+, $-+&,7,/,(' .8 '+, '$1),' P 95 *", &8 '+, &("'1*/,(' !>

-.(8&%,('45MdO *(%,"&1$945 +&)+: A+, ,-.(./&"'e" -.('1&9*'&.( +$66,(MdO '. -$44

$'',('&.( '. '+, "*9"&%&$15 -.(",Y*,(-," .8 $ 6.4&-5: Z*66.",> &( 8$-'> '+$' '+,

6.4&-5@/$?,1 (.0 1,-.)(&H," '+$' +, &" 1,$445 &(',1,"',% &( 9.'+ P $(% X

$4'+.*)+ +, &" *($94, '. "'$', &( $%7$(-, +&" 1,4$'&7, 61,8,1,(-," 9,'0,,( '+,",

'0. '$1),' 7$1&$94,":

F( '+, $""*/6'&.( '+$' ! 1,/$&(" .(45 $7$&4$94, &("'1*/,('> '+,

,-.(./&"' /$5 (.0 1,'*1( '. '+, "'1*-'*1$4 /.%,4 0&'+ U>W $(% S $" '+, %$'$>

L&'+ 8.*1 ,Y*$'&.(" $(% 8&7, *(?(.0(" !> P> 3> T $(% X> '+, 22".4*'&.(<< (.0

-.('$&(" .(, %,)1,, .8 81,,%./: A+, ?,5 1,"*4' &" -4,$145 '+, -.("'1$&(' &/6.",%

&( 7$4*," .8 P $(% X> .9'$&(,% 95 -.('$&(&() MVO $(% MCO=

N A+&" 8&)*1,> 4&?, '+.", 0+&-+ 8.44.0> &" %1$0( '. '+, "-$4, .8 '+, (*/,1&-$4

,;$/64, 8.1 '+, "$?, .8 -.(-1,',(,"":

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 3/8

\&)*1, N

f,4$'&.("+&6 .8 /,$(" '. ,(%"=

\&;,% '$1),' P_ c("'1*/,(' !

MgO XQ WP@S

L&'+ W $(% S 9,&() %$'$> '+&" %,8&(," '+, 6.""&94, -./9&($'&.(" .8 P $(% X: F(-,

'+, %,"&1,% 6.&(' &" ",4,-',%@ 95 $ -+.&-, .8 P> X> .1 6,1+$6" '+,&1 1$'&.a MgO &"

".47,% $(% '+, ".4*'&.( 7$4*," .8 !> 3> $(% T /$5 9, /."' 1,$%&45 -./6*',% 81./

MKO> MIO $(% MVO 1,"6,-'&7,45:

\.1 '+, (*/,1&-$4 ,;$/64,> '+, %$'$ 8.1 '+&" '0.@84,;&94,@'$1),',%a.(,@&("'1*/,(' 61.94,/ $1,

UQ]:^ WQ]:V SQI]

Z. '+$' '+, 1,"*4'&() 22".4*'&.("<< $1, ,;61,"",% $"

X Q]:VP@I]

!QMN@]:^R]:VO P@I] Q]:JP@I]

3QM]:JP@I]OR]:^P QN:VP@I]

T Q]:VP

A+*" '+, ,-.(./&"' &" (. 4.(),1 $94, '. 61.7&%, $ 8*44 ".4*'&.( '. '+, 6.4&-5

61.94,/a'+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 &" "'&44 81,, '. -+..", $/.() '+, 6.""&94,

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 4/8

h.""&9&4&'5 4&(,=

\4,;&94, '$1),'" P> X_ &("'1*/,(' !

-./9&($'&.(" .8 P $(% X 6,1/&'',% 95 MgO: Z'&44> 0+$' +, +$" %.(, &" '. ($11.0

%.0( '+, 1$(), .8 6.""&9&4&'&,"> ". '+$' '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 &" 1,Y*&1,% '. ,;61,""

61,8,1,(-," .(45 .7,1 $ 4&/&',% ",' 1$'+,1 '+$( .7,1 $44 -.(-,&7$94, -./9&($'&.("

.8 P $(% X: A+, &/6.1'$(-, .8 "*-+ $ -.('1&9*'&.( "+.*4% (.' 9, *(%,1,"'&/$',%

&( 1,$4&"'&- ",''&()" 0+,1, '+,1, $1, &( 8$-' $ 4$1), (*/9,1 .8 '$1),' 7$1&$94," .8&(',1,"' '. '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1:

[1$6+&-$445 '+, ?,5 1,"*4' 0.*4% '$?, '+, 8.1/ .8 '+,  /0,,"1"2"'3 2"+$  .8

\&)*1, I: A+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 /*"' ,;61,"" 61,8,1,(-, .(45 $4.() '+&" 4&(,> 1$'+,1

'+$( $-1."" '+, 0+.4, X> P 64$(,: ! ?,5 8,$'*1, .8 '+, 4&(, &" &'" "4.6,!"

!"! W

0+&-+ )&7," '+, 6.""&9&4&'5 '1$%,@.88 1$', 9,'0,,( X $(% P:

"+2 !"-#$'3+"#-

Z'&44 '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 /$5 (.' 9, -.(',(' 0&'+ '+&" 6.""&9&4&'5 4&(,> 8,,4&()

'+$' '+, 7$4*," .8 X $"".-&$',% 0&'+ 7$1&.*" 7$4*," .8 P $1, *(%,"&1$945 +&)+: i,

&" ($'*1$445 $''1$-',% '. '+, 6.1'&.( .8 '+, X> P 64$(, 0+&-+ 4&," 9,4.0 '+$'

6.""&9&4&'5 4&(,@'+$' &"> 0+&-+ $"".-&$'," 4.0,1 7$4*," .8 X 0&'+ ,$-+ 7$4*, .8 P: !'

'+&" 6.&('> '+, ,-.(./&"' /$5 6.&(' .*' '+, -.("'1$&(&() 1.4, 64$5,% 95 W $(% S:

L, "*66.", '+$' *6.( 1,-.("&%,1$'&.( '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 1,$4&H," '+$'> 95 7$1&.*"

/,$"*1,"> +, &" $94, '. ,;,1-&", -.('1.4 .7,1 S $" 0,44 $" !> ". '+$' 9.'+ .8 '+,",

7$1&$94," $1, &( 8$-' $7$&4$94, $" &("'1*/,('":

A+, ,-.(./&"' &" '+,( 4,% '. 1,'*1( '. '+, "'1*-'*1$4 /.%,4 0&'+ .(45 U $(%

W $" %$'$: L&'+ 8.*1 ,Y*$'&.(" $(% "&; *(?(.0(" !> P> 3> T> X> $(% S> +&"

22".4*'&.(<< (.0 -.('$&(" '0. %,)1,," .8 81,,%./: A+, ?,5 1,"*4' &" '+,

-.("'1$&(' &/6.",% .( 7$4*," .8 P> X> $(% S> 0+&-+ /$5 9, ,;61,"",% $" MgO .1

/.1, -.(7,(&,('45 95

M^O WP@XQS

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 5/8

With W 9,&() '+, .(45 %$'*/ (.0> '+&" %,8&(," '+, 6.""&94, -./9&($'&.(" .8 P> X>

$(% S: F(-, '+, %,"&1,% 6.&(' &" ",4,-',%@ "$5 95 $ -+.&-, .8 P $(% X@ M^O &" ".47,%

$(% '+,( '+, ".4*'&.( 7$4*," !> 3> $(% T /$5 9, /."' 1,$%&45 -./6*',% 81./ MKO>

MIO> $(% MVO 1,"6,-'&7,45:

\.1 '+, (*/,1&-$4 ,;$/64,> '+, %$'$ 8.1 '+&" '0.@84,;&94, '$1),'"a'0.@

&("'1*/,('" 61.94,/" $1,UQ]:^ WQ]:V_

". '+$' '+, 1,"*4'&() 22".4*'&.("<< $1, ,;61,"",% $"

S Q]:VP@X

!QMN@]:^R]:VOP@SQ]:J P@S

3Q]:JP@SR]:^P QN:VP@S

T Q]:VP

F(-, $)$&(> '+, ,-.(./&"' &" $94, '. 61.7&%, $ 8*44 ".4*'&.( '. '+, 6.4&-5

61.94,/a'+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 9,&() 81,, '. -+..", $/.() '+, 6.""&94,

-./9&($'&.(" .8 P> X> $(% S 6,1/&'',% 95 M^O: A+, ,-.(./&"'e" -.('1&9*'&.( +$"

9,,( '. -$44 $'',('&.( '. '+, 9.''4,(,-?" 0+&-+ "'$(% &( '+, 0$5 .8 $''$&(/,(' MdO.8 .9G,-'&7," $(%> 95 ". %.&()> '. 6.&(' '+, 0$5 .8 .7,1-./&() '+,/: A+,

&/6.1'$(-, .8 "*-+ $ -.('1&9*'&.( "+.*4% (.' 9, *(%,1,"'&/$'&() &( 1,$4&"'&-

",''&()" 0+,1, '+, ,-.(./&- "'1*-'*1, &" +&)+45 -./64,;:

[1$6+&-$445> '+, ?,5 1,"*4' 0.*4% '$?, '+, 8.1/ .8 $ /0,,"1"2"'3 456 ,-)!(7$ 

0+.", -.('.*1" $1, 64.'',% &( \&)*1, V: A+, -.('.*1" MdO -.11,"6.(% '. %&88,1,('

7$4*," .8 S> '+, ".4&% .(, -.11,"6.(%&() '. '+, S .8 Z,-'&.( C> '+, .(," 9,4.0 &' '.

+&)+,1 7$4*," .8 S: ! ?,5 8,$'*1, .8 '+, "*18$-, 0.*4% 9, +5j'&$4 MdO "4.6,":

0&44 ,88,-'&7,45 7$4*, '+, &("'1*/,(' S &( ',1/" .8 '+, '$1),' P $(% X 1,"6,-'&7,45=

$ *(&' &(-1,$", &( S -$( 1$&", P 95 !!! 0&'+ (. -+$(), &( X> .1 4.0,1 X 95 N 0&'+

(. -+$(), &( P:

h.""&9&4&'5 Z*18$-,=

\4,;&94, A$1),'" P>X_ c("'1*/,('" !>S

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 6/8

2+0*,$+ *'"(#!%"

!4'+.*)+ 0, $1, -.(-,1(,% 0&'+ ,/6+$"&H&() '+, 7$1&.*" 6$1'&$4

-.('1&9*'&.(" .8 '+, ,-.(./&- $($45"' '. 6.4&-5 8.1/$'&.(> '. 1.*(% .88 '+,

%&"-*""&.( 0, /$5 1,-$44 +.0 '+, ,;&"',(-, .8 $%%&'&.($4 &(8.1/$'&.( -$( 4,$% '.

$ -./64,', 1,".4*'&.( .8 '+, -+.&-, 61.94,/:

f,'*1(&() '. '+, "&'*$'&.( .8 Z,-'&.( C 0+,1, ! &" '+, .(45 &("'1*/,(' $(%P $(% X '+, '$1),'"> 0, (.0 "*66.", '+$' '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 &" $94, '. ,;61,"" +&"

61,8,1,(-," 9,'0,,( P $(% X &( ',1/" .8 $ 8$2!()$ !-+7'"0+: c( 6$1'&-*4$1 0,

"*66.", '+$' +, 0&"+," '. /$;&/&H,:

MDO LQ kP@ !! 

L+,1, k<]: A+, 1,4,7$(' -.("'1$&(' &" '+$' .8 MgO> 0+&-+ &(",1',% MDO )&7,"

MN]O  LQkP@!!! ! !!! 

L+&-+ &" '. 9, /$;&/&H,% 0&'+ 1,"6,-' '. P: X&88,1,('&$'&() 0&'+ 1,"6,-' '. P 0,

+$7,

MNNO  !"

!"Qk@IWMWPlSO

0+&-+ ",' ,Y*$4 '. H,1. )&7,"MNIO  PQ

  !

!!!R!

! 

MA+$' '+&" &" &(%,,% $ /$;&/*/ &" -.(8&1/,% 95 '+, "&)( .8!!

!

!!!Q@I !

!> 0+&-+ &"

(,)$'&7, 8.1 W<]O: A+, ".4*'&.(" 8.1 '+, 1,/$&(&() 7$1&$94," !> 3> T> $(% X /$5

'+,( 9, 1,$%&45 .9'$&(,% 81./ MKO> MIO> MVO $(% MCO 1,"6,-'&7,45:

\.1 '+, (*/,1&-$4 ,;$/64, 0, "*66.", '+$' '+, 0,48$1, 8*(-'&.( &"

LQNIP@!!> ". '+$' '+, %$'$ 8.1 '+&" /$;&/&H$'&.( 61.94,/ $1,

UQ]:^ WQ]:V kQNI

$(% '+, 1,"*4'&() ".4*'&.(" $1, 1,$%&45 -./6*',% '. 9,

PQ

!"

!!!!

!!!R

!"

!!

!  QNVV!QMN@]:^R]:VO NVV@I]QCg

3QCgRM]:^ONVV QNJV

TQM]:VONVV QC]

XQC]@I] I]

[1$6+&-$445 '+, ?,5 1,"*4' 0.*4%> $" &( \&)*1, C> '$?, '+, 8.1/ .8

"*6,1&/6."&() '+, 0,48$1, -.('.*1" .( '+, 6.""&9&4&'5 .8 \&)*1, I $(% 4.-$'&()

'+, 6.&(' .8 '$(),(-5

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 7/8

 ! ?,5 8,$'*1, .8 '+, 0,48$1, 8*(-'&.( &" '+, /$1)&($4 1$', .8 "*9"'&'*'&.( 9,'0,,(

X $(% P 0&'+ L -.("'$('

0+&-+ )&7," '+, 0,48$1, '1$%, .88 1$', 9,'0,,( X $(% P: A+, ".4*'&.( 6.&(' &"

-+$1$-',1&H,% 95 '+, 8$-' '+$' &' ,Y*$'," '+&" %,"&1$9&4&'5 '1$%,@.88 0&'+ '+,

6.""&9&4&'5 '1$%,@.88> W> (.',% &( Z,-'&.( C= $' '+, P .8 MNIO 0, +$7,

XQ WP@SQ W M  !

! !! R!

!O Q

!

!!> 0+&-+ &(%,,% "$'&"8&,"

!

!!

Q !:

(%"(0'-!%"

!" .*1 &%,$4&H,% ,;$/64, +$" &(%&-$',%> '+,1, $1, 7$1&.*" -./6.(,('" '.

'+, -.('1&9*'&.( .8 '+, ,-.(./&- $($45"&" '. ,-.(./&- 6.4&-5: A+, ($'*1, $(%

,;',(' .8 '+, -.('1&9*'&.(> $" 0, +$7, ",,(> %,6,(%" &( )..% 6$1' .( '+, %$'$

/$%, $7$&4$94, 95 '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1: L+,( +&" 61,8,1,(-," $1, ,;61,"",% &( $

0,44@%,8&(,% 0,48$1, 8*(-'&.(> '+,( ,-.(./&- $($45"&" -$( ".47, '+, 8*44

.6'&/&H$'&.( 61.94,/: A. 9, "*1,> '+&" &" 1$1,45 '+, -$",: 22m*' (,7,1'+,4,"">

$($45"&" -$( /$?, "./, &/6.1'$(' -.('1&9*'&.(": c' -$(j +,46 '. G*%), '+,

-.("&"',(-5 .8 '+, $&/" $""*/,%> $(% .8 '+, $&/" $(% /,$(" $" $

-./9&($'&.(jm5 %,',-'&() &(-.("&"',(-&," &' /$5j($11.0 %.0( '+,

6.""&9&4&'&," $(% ". -.('1&9*', '. '+, ".4*'&.(<<:@A&/9,1),( BC>6:DE

7/18/2019 Goldberger & Tinbergen

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/goldberger-tinbergen 8/8

X,"6&', '+, &(',164$5 9,'0,,( '+, $($45"' $(% '+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 &' &"

&/6.1'$(' '. ,/6+$"&H, '+, %&"'&(-'&.( 9,'0,,( '+,&1 1.4,": 3"",('&$445> &( ',1/"

.8 \&)*1, C> '+, "-1&6' /$?," '+, $($45"' 1,"6.("&94, 8.1 '+, 6.""&9&4&'5 4&(, $(%

'+, 6.4&-5@/$?,1 1,"6.("&94, 8.1 '+, 0,48$1, -.('.*1": ! 94*11&() .8 '+&"

%&"'&(-'&.( &" 4&?,45 '. 1,"*4' &( &11$'&.($4 6.4&-5 8.1/$'&.( $(% &" 7&1'*$445 -,1'$&(

'. /$?, &(',44&),(' %&"-*""&.( $(% ,7$4*$'&.( .8 6.4&-5 $-'&.(" &/6.""&94,:\.1 %,'$&4,% %&"-*""&.( .8 '+, "*9G,-' /,1,45 "*)),"',% &( '+&" 6$6,1>

1,8,1,(-, "+.*4% 9, /$%, '. '+, 0.1?" .8 A&(9,1+,( BVE> BCE $(% A+,&4 BNE> BIE: