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PART I TINBERGEN RESEARCH INSTITUTE

1. TI-RESEARCH IN GENERAL The Tinbergen Institute's research is organised along four themes: I Institutions and Decision Analysis; II Financial and International Markets; III Labour Region and Environment; IV Econometrics. For each theme there is a co-ordinator and a deputy co-ordinator. Together the co-ordinators form the research council. Members of the research groups are research fellows, who are selected by the Board of the Institute, based on their publication records. The economic departments where the research fellows are appointed provide the nomination with additional research time. Most research groups organise annual or biannual meetings, where ongoing research is presented. In Table 1.1 an overview is given of the number of research fellows and PhD students for each research group, divided by university. Table 1.1. Research fellows (RF's) per ultimo 2003, per university per research group; PhD Students and thesis defences in 2003 per research group

Research group RF's total (excl. Jr.RF’s)

RF's EUR

RF's UvA

RF'sVU

Junior Fellows

PhD Students

PhD thesis defences

1 Institutions and Decision Processes

24 7 13 4 4 22 2

2 Financial and International Markets

29 12 11 6 3 38 5

3 Labor, Region and Environment

30 8 6 16 4 40 9

4 Econometrics

25 10 10 5 3 17 1

5 Miscellaneous

31 10

Total 108 37 40 31 14 148 27

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Within these research themes the Tinbergen Institute performs and stimulates fundamental and applied economic research, by providing facilities for research fellows. Budgets are available for inviting scholars from abroad and organising seminars and conferences. Co-ordinators of the themes decide on the spending of the budget. In addition, there is a central budget for larger conferences, for which fellows of the institute can apply. The General Director decides on these applications. All seminars, workshops and conferences have been recorded in the next paragraphs of the annual report. The TI discussion paper series is a medium for pre-publications for the institute’s research fellows and PhD students. The discussion papers published in 2003 are all listed in this annual report. For all other research output of the TI research fellows and PhD students we refer to the annual reports of the respective departments. In Table 1.2 you can find the number of discussion papers per research group in 2003. Table 1.2. Discussion papers (DP) per research group issued in 2003

Research group DP 1 Institutions and Decision Processes 30 2 Financial and International Markets 22 3 Labor, Region and Environment 42 4 Econometrics 10 Total 104

In the sections 2.1 – 2.4 the research groups’ results and activities of 2003 have been recorded. All research fellows and PhD students allied to the research groups are mentioned. Some research fellows participate in two research groups. In these cases, research fellows are mentioned twice: the first time in the paragraph of the research group where the main part of their research is taking place; the second time in parentheses. In chapter 3 TI-activities not related to research groups are reported. Also in this chapter research projects funded by TI or TI projects with external funding are mentioned.

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2.1 INSTITUTIONS AND DECISION PROCESSES Co-ordinator: G. van der Laan (VU), Deputy Co-ordinator J.K. Goeree (UvA). Research Fellows: EUR: H.P. van Dalen, A.J. Dur, S. Goyal, J.P.M. Groenewegen, M.C.W. Janssen,

J.L. Moraga, O.H. Swank UvA: M.J. Boumans, J.K. Goeree, C.H. Hommes, S. Martin, M.S. Morgan, T.J.S. Offerman,

A. Riedl, A.J.H.C. Schram, R. Sloof, J.H. Sonnemans, J. Tuinstra, P.P. Wakker, F.A.A.M. van Winden

VU: J.R. van den Brink, T.L.C.M. Groot, H.E.D. Houba, G. van der Laan

Junior Research Fellows: EUR: B.C.D. Donkers, B. Visser UvA: C.G.H. Diks, F.O.O. Wagener PhD Students: EUR: K.J. Beniers (as from 1/1/01), J. Delfgaauw (as from 01/09/02), S. Dominguez-Martinez

(as from 01/09/02), S.S. Ficco (as from 1/9/2001), A. Galeotti (as from 01/09/00), M.J. van der Leij (as from 01/01/02), R. van der Noll (as from 01/09/00), K. Staal (as from 01/07/99), M.R. Wildenbeest (as from 01/09/03).

UvA: M. Angelova (until 01/01/03), P.D.E. Dindo (as from 01/09/02), J. Gillet (as from 01/09/02), P. Heemeijer (as from 01/09/02), S. van der Hoog (as from 01/10/00), A. Hopfensitz (as from 02/02/02), G. van de Kuilen (as from 01/09/02), V. Panchenko (as from 01/09/02), E. Reuben (as from 01/09/02), R. van der Weide (as from 01/04/00).

VU: J.A. Kamphorst (as from 01/09/00), R. van der Maten (as from 01/03/01), V. Pruzhansky (as from 01/09/01).

Discussion Papers: 005 Klaas J. Beniers, Robert A.J. Dur, EUR, Product Market Competition and Trade Union

Structure 006 Klaas J. Beniers, Faculty of Economics, EUR, Otto H. Swank, EUR, On the Composition of

Committees 007 Cees Diks, Roy van der Weide, UvA, Continuous Beliefs Dynamics 009 Marco J. van der Leij, EUR, Competing Transport Networks 010 Cars Hommes, Joep Sonnemans, Jan Tuinstra, Henk van de Velden, CeNDEF, UvA,

Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments 011 Ioulia V. Ossokina, EUR, Otto H. Swank, EUR, Environmental Policy Choice under

Uncertainty 017 Maarten C.W. Janssen, EUR, Auctions as Collusion Devices 020 C.H. Hommes, J.H. Sonnemans, J. Tuinstra, H. van de Velde, UvA, Learning in Cobweb

Experiments 021 Otto H. Swank, Bauke Visser, EUR, The Consequences of Endogenizing Information for Herd

Behavior 033 Maarten C.W. Janssen, Vladimir A. Karamychev, Peran van Reeven, EUR, Multi-Store

Competition: Market Segmentation or Interlacing? 034 Hendrik P. van Dalen, OCFEB, EUR, and NIDI, The Hague, Pluralism in Economics: A Public

Good or a Public Bad? 035 Andrea Galeotti, José Luis Moraga-González, EUR, Strategic Targeted Advertising 041 Sanjeev Goyal, University of Essex, EUR, Alexander Konovalov, José Luis Moraga, EUR,

Hybrid R&D 043 Joep Sonnemans, UvA, Price Clustering and Natural Resistance Points in the Dutch Stock

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Market 055 Simon Gächter, CESifo, and University of St Gallen, Arno Riedl, UvA, Moral Property Rights

in Bargaining with Infeasible Claims 056 Ronald Bosman, De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, Arno Riedl, UvA, Emotions and

Economic Shocks in a First-Price Auction 058 Arno Riedl, Frans van Winden, CREED, UvA, Input versus Output Taxation in an

Experimental International Economy 065 Arno Riedl, CREED, UvA, Jean-Robert Tyran, University of St. Gallen, Tax Liability Side

Equivalence in Gift-Exchange Labor Markets 066 Hendrik P. van Dalen, Aico P. van Vuuren, EUR, Greasing the Wheels of Trade 067 Otto H. Swank, Bauke Visser, EUR, Do Elections lead to Informed Public Decisions? 073 Cees Diks, Roy van der Weide, UvA, Heterogeneity as a Natural Source of Randomness 074 Robert Dur, Klaas Staal, EUR, National Interference in Local Public Good Provision 076 René van den Brink, Gerard van der Laan, VU; Valeri Vasil'ev, Sobolev Institute of

Mathematics, Novisibirsk, Harsanyi Solutions in Line-graph Games 098 Vitaly Pruzhansky, VU, On Finding Curb Sets in Extensive Games 099 Randolph Sloof, UvA, Price-setting Power versus Private Information 100 René van den Brink, VU, Axiomatizations of Permission Values for Games with a Hierarchical

Permission Structure using Split Neutrality 101 Vitaly Pruzhansky, VU, Maximin Play in Two-Person Bimatrix Games 102 René van den Brink, VU, Robert P. Gilles, Virginia Tech, Explicit and Latent Authority in

Hierarchical Organizations 103 Cees Diks, Roy van der Weide, UvA, Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in

Memory in a CBS 104 J. Hinloopen, UvA, Cartel Stability with Time-dependent Detection Probabilities Thesis Defences: E. Wiersma (16/01/03), Non-financial Performance Measures: An Empirical Analysis of a Change in a Firm's Performance Measurement System (Prof. T.L.C.M. Groot) G.A.W. Griffioen (04/03/03), Technical Analysis in Financial Markets (Prof. C.H. Hommes) S. Manzan (06/06/03), Essays in Nonlinear Economic Dynamics (Prof. C.H. Hommes, Co-Promotor: Dr. C.G.H. Diks) I.V. Ossokina (20/06/03), Environmental Policy and Environment-saving Technologies. Economic Aspects of Policy Making under Uncertainty (Profs. O.H. Swank and J. van Sinderen) H. Dekker (26/03/03), Control of Inter-organizational Relationships: The Effects of Appropriation Concerns, Coordination Requirements and Social Embeddedness (Profs. T.L.C.M. Groot and A.R. van Goor) T. Verhagen (20/09/03), Towards Understanding Online Purchase Behavior (Profs. M.R. Creemers, G.J. Bamossy, Co-promotor: dr. J.G.M. van der Heijden) Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam February 7 Eline van der Heijden, Leading by Example, Investment Decisions in a Mixed Sequential-

Simultaneous Public Bad Experiment March 7 Oliver Kirchkamp, University of Mannheim, No Imitation --- on Local and Group Interaction,

Learning, Reciprocity, and Repeated Game Strategies in Prisoners' Dilemma Experiments Ronald Peeters, University of Maastricht, Stochastic Games: Computation and Application

April 4 Klaus M. Schmidt, University of Munich, CESifo and CEPR, Fairness, Incentives and Contractual

Incompleteness

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Encarna Algaba Duran, Seville University, A Generalization of the Myerson Value 17 Official Inaugural Conference

Jeroen Hinloopen, Director Encore, Encore, an Open Platform Paul Geroski, Deputy Chairman of the Competition Commission and Professor of Economics at theLondon Business School, The Analysis of Mergers: Some Observations Jules Theeuwes, Director Encore, Encore op Hoofdlijnen Joop Hartog, vice-dean, FEE, UvA, and Mark Frequin, Director-General, Telecommunicatie en Post, EZ, Official Opening of Encore René Jansen, functioning Director-general, Nma,.Mededingingsbeleid: De Praktijk Hugo Keuzenkamp, Director Amsterdam Economics SEO, Political Economy Forum: Moderator

May 2 Ted Bergstrom, University of California Santa Barbara, Evolution of Social Behavior: Individual

and Group Selection Ignacio García-Jurado, Values for Strategic Games in Which Players Cooperate

June 5 Workshop, Market Transparency

Jan Boone, Tilburg University, Market Transparency and Cconsumer Welfare Fui Moy Chan, Commission of the Netherlands Independent Post and TelecommunicationsAuthority, OPTA, Transparancy in the Telecommunication Market Peter Møllgaard, Copenhagen Business School, Market Ttransparency and Competition in Imperfectly Competitive Markets Jakob van der Waarden, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Glashelder: Meer Inzicht in Markttransparantie

6 Charles Holt, University of Virginia, An Explanation of Anomalous Behavior in Binary-Choice Games: Entry, Voting, Public Goods, and the Voluteers' Dilemma Frank Steffen, University of Hamburg, Power and Success of a Chairman On the OptimalAssignment of Streams in Server Farms

July 2 Perwez Shahabuddin, Columbia University, On the Optimal Assignment of Streams in Server

Farms August 15 Mini Workshop on Auctions with J.J. Herings, Sander Onderstal, and John Wooders September 5 Jose Luis Moraga-Gonzalez, EUR, Entry and Competition in Segmented Markets

A. Karamychev, EUR, Multi-Store Competition: Market Segmentation or Interlacing? 25 Mini Workshop, Networks: Theory and Application to Industrial

Sanjeev Goyal, University of Essex October 3 Eric Eyster, Nuffield College, Oxford, Rationalising the Past: A Taste for Consistency

Herman Monsuur, RN Naval College, Centrality and Stability With Application to Network Formation

17 Antoni Calvo-Armengol, Universidad Autonoma Barcelona, Networks in Labor Markets: Wage and Employment Dynamics and Inequality

23 Workshop, Design of Regulation Roger Sherman, University of Houston, USA, Designer Markets: The Art of Restructuring Industries Per Agrell, Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium and Peter Bogetoft, Royal Veterinary andAgricultural University, Denmark, Evolutionary Regulation: From CPI-X towards Contestability

November 7 Paul van Lange, VU, The Power of Negativity in Social Dilemmas & How to Overcome the

Detrimental Effects of Noise in Social Interaction: The Benefits of Generosity Rene Levinsky, Freiburg University, Ultimatum Offers and the Role of Transparency: AnExperimental Study of Information Acquisition

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14 Charles Noussair, Emory University, Atlanta, Production, Trade, and Exchange Rates in Large Experimental Economies

23 Conference, Structural Separation and Access Pricing Paul de Bijl, Tilburg Institute of Law and Economics, The Netherlands, Telecommunications Frank Wolak, Stanford University, United States Electricity Russ Pittman, Department of Justice, Antitrust Division, United States Railroads Martin Cave, University of Warwick, United Kingdom Postal services Alberto Heimler, Lessons and Conclusions: A Panel Discussion

28 Michelle Goeree, Advertising in the US Personal Computer Industry December 5 Georg Kirchsteiger, University of Maastricht, Does Learning Lead to Coordination on Market

Clearing Institutions? Dinko Dimitrov, CentER, Tilburg University, On Collective Identity

19 Ulrike Malmendier, Stanford University, Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence 19 Frank Verboven, Liberalizing a Distribution System: The European Car Market Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam January 24 Economic Theory

- Theo Offermans, UvA, The Amsterdam Auction, - Inés Macho Stadler, Universidad Autónoma Barcelona, Mergers, Investment Decision and Internal Organization

February 21 Economic Theory

- Joep Sonnemans, UvA, Does Making Specific Investments Unobservable boost Investment Incentives? - Emmanuelle Auriol, University of Toulouse I, The Cost and Benefit of Symbolic Differentiation in the Workplace

March 14 Economic Theory

- Ayse Mumcu, Bogazici University, The Competitions between Regulated and Unregulated Generators on Electric Power Networks - José Luis Moraga, EUR, Strategic Targeted Advertising

28 Economic Theory - Tore Nilssen, University of Oslo, Deductibles in Health Insurance: Pay or Pain? - Alex Konovalov, EUR, Network Forms of Organization in R & D

May 16 Economic Theory

- Christian Ewerhart, Universität Mannheim, A Model of the Eurosystem’s Operational Framework for Monetary Policy Implementation - Aico van Vuuren, VU, Structural Empirical Analysis of the Transition from College to Work

June 13 Economic Theory

- Randolph Sloof, UvA, An Experimental Evaluation of Holdup under Private Information about Outside Options - Otto Swank, EUR, Do Elections Lead to Informed Public Decisions?

27 Jan Marc Berk, New Economy, Old Central Banks? September 19 Micro Theory

- Daniel Sturm, Universität München, Term Limits and Electoral Accountability - Ewa Mendys, EUR, Open Source, Complementarities, and Software Quality

November 21 Micro Theory

- Matthew Bennett, Université Toulouse, Is the Optimal Auction a Beauty Contest? The Interaction of Market Allocation and Supervision - Rob van der Noll, EUR, Competition for a Prize

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December 12 Economic Theory

- Per Frederiksson, Southern Methodist University, The Ratification of International Environmental Agreements: Domestic Institutions and the Kyoto Protocol - Stefan Ficco, EUR, Information Overload as an Equilibrium Outcome

Visitors: Jack Knetsch, Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, Canada, Rotterdam, March 1 - 30 Amihai Glazer, University of California, Irvine, US, Rotterdam, May 12 – 16 Viktoria Kocsis, Hungary, Amsterdam, October 27, 2003 – April 29, 2005

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2.2 FINANCIAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Co-ordinator: C.G. de Vries (EUR); Deputy-co-ordinator: E.C. Perotti (UvA), and C.A.M.F. Claesens (as of October). Research Fellows: EUR: L. Bettendorf, M.A. Carree, J.F. Francois, P.A. de Hek, J.G.M. van Marrewijk,

0M.P.E. Martens, G.T. Post, J. Spronk, M.J.C.M. Verbeek, J.-M. Viaene, A.C.F. Vorst, C.G. de Vries

UvA: R. Beetsma, A.W.A. Boot, C.A.M.F. Claessens, J. Davis, M.J. Ellman, C. van Ewijk, M.M.G. Fase, J. Hinloopen, F. de Jong, E.C. Perotti, S.J.G. van Wijnbergen

VU: J.M. Berk, C.L. Gilbert, J.W. Gunning, M.A. Keyzer, A. Lucas, M.P. Pradhan Junior Research Fellows: EUR: A. Pelsser UvA: F.J.G.M. Klaassen VU: F. Hamelink PhD Students: EUR: A.M. Babus (as from 01/09/03), E.H.G. Bekkers (as from 01/09/03), R.P. Beneder (as

from 01/09/02), B. Bierut (as from 01/09/00), F. Eschenbach (as from 01/09/99), A.V. Hardiyanto (as from 01/09/00), R. Lord (as from 01/09/02), M.I.S.H. Munandar (as from 01/09/02), R. Phisalaphong (as from 01/09/99), H. Rojas-Romagosa (as from 01/09/01), J.F. Slijkerman (as from 01/05/01), P.J.P.M. Versijp (as from 01/02/03), M. van der Voort (as from 01/09/00), A.S.K. Wong (as from 01/09/03), P. Wrasai (as from 01/12/99).

UvA: Y.C. Cheung (as from 01/09/00), T.R. Daniëls (as from 01/09/02), E.H.B. Feijen (as from 01/02/03), K. Grabiszewski (as from 01/09/00), M.J.E. van Heel (as from 01/02/02), N. van Horen (as from 01/05/00), D.S. Karypbaeva (as from 01/09/03), T. Nahar (until 22/06/03), M. Poplawski Riberio (as from 01/09/02), L. Ratnovski (as from 10/06/02), D.T. Rusinova (as from 01/09/02), I. Schindele (until 01/06/03), P.V. Trietsch (as from 01/10/02).

VU: M.A. Abreu (as from 01/06/02), R. Anglingkusumo (as from 01/09/00), M. Dekker (until 18/09/03), R. Ding (as from 01/10/03), W. Janssens (as from 01/09/01), H.M.I. Keijsper (until 16/07/03), S.J.J. Konijn (as from 01/09/03), A.V.P.B. Monteiro (as from 01/10/02), M. Ruderman (until 01/10/03), R.A. Sparrow (as from 01/06/01).

Discussion Papers: 001 Arnoud W.A. Boot, UvA, Anjan V. Thakor, University of Michigan Business School,

Disagreement and Flexibility – A Theory of Optimal Security Issuance and Capital Structure 002 Arnoud W.A. Boot, UvA, Anjan V. Thakor, University of Michigan Business School, The

Economic Value of Flexibility when there is Disagreement 008 Jeroen Hinloopen, UvA, Cartel Stability with Subjective Detection Beliefs 015 Ruta Aidis, UvA, Entrepreneurship and Economic Transition 016 Menno Pradhan, VU, and World Bank, Jakarta; Fadia Saadah, World Bank, Jakarta; Robert

Sparrow, VU, Did the Healthcard Program ensure Access to Medical Care for the Poor during Indonesia's Economic Crisis?

028 Patrick Houweling, EUR; Albert Mentink, EUR, and Aegon Asset Management; Ton Vorst, EUR, and ABN Amro, Valuing Euro Rating-Triggered Step-Up Telecom Bonds

029 Paul A. de Hek, EUR, On Taxation in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model with Endogenous Labor Supply

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030 Patrick Houweling, Albert Mentink, Ton Vorst, EUR, How to measure Corporate Bond Liquidity?

032 Leon J.H. Bettendorf, D. Peter Broer, OCFEB, EUR, Life-time Labor Supply in a Search Model of Unemployment

037 Albert J. Menkveld, Siem Jan Koopman, André Lucas, VU, Round-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks: US-Dutch Evidence

053 Jan Marc Berk, De Nederlandsche Bank, and VU; Beata K. Bierut, EUR, Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

054 Joseph Francois, EUR, and CEPR; Gunnar Niels, OXERA, and EUR, Business Cycles, the Current Account, and Administered Protection in Mexico

060 Joseph Francois, EUR, and CEPR; H. van Meijl, F. van Tongeren, LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round

062 Siem Jan Koopman, André Lucas, VU, Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk 068 Chris Elbers, Jan Willem Gunning, Bill Kinsey, VU, Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro

Evidence 070 Chris Elbers, Jan Willem Gunning, VU, Vulnerability in a Stochastic Dynamic Model 075 André Lucas, VU; Pieter Klaassen, ABN AMRO Bank NV, Amsterdam, Discrete versus

Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk 077 Arne Bigsten, Göteborg University; Paul Collier, Stefan Dercon, Marcel Fafchamps, University

of Oxford; Jan Willem Gunning, VU; Abena Oduro, Center for Policy Analysis, Accra, Ghana; Remco Oostendorp, VU; Cathy Pattillo, International Monetary Fund; Mans Söderbom, Francis Teal, University of Oxford; Albert Zeufack, World Bank, Risk Sharing in Labour Markets

086 Maurice J.G. Bun, Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, UvA, The Importance of Accounting for Time Trends when Estimating the Euro Effect on Trade

090 Bas Peeters, Cees L. Dert, André Lucas, VU, Black Scholes for Portfolios of Options in Discrete Time: the Price is Right, the Hedge is wrong

095 John B. Davis, UvA, The Conception of the Individual in Non-Cooperative Game Theory 096 Arnoud W.A. Boot, UvA, and CEPR; Radhakrishnan Gopalan, University of Michigan Business

School; Anjan V. Thakor, Olin School of Business, Washington University in St Louis, Go Public or Stay Private: A Theory of Entrepreneurial Choice

Thesis Defences: A.H. Siegmann (07/01/03), Optimal Financial Decision Making under Loss Averse Preferences, (Profs.A. Lucas, Co-promotor C.G.E. Boender) L.M. Vinhas de Souza (03/04/03), Beyond Transition: Essays on the Monetary Integration of the Accession Countries in Eastern Europe (Profs. J. Francois and C.G. de Vries) A. van der Horst (13/02/03), Government Interference in a Dynamic Economy R. Aidis (14/05/03), By Law and By Custom: Factors affecting Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises during the Transition in Lithuania (Prof. M. Ellman) P. Houweling (03/10/03), Empirical Studies on Credit Markets (Prof. A.C.F. Vorst) Y.V. Veld-Merkoulova (02-10-03), Essays on Futures Markets and Corporate Spin-Offs (Profs. AC.F. Vorst and F. de Roon) Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January 21 Francesco Franzoni, MIT, Learning About Beta: An Explanation of the Value Premium 28 Alessandro Beber, Pisa/Wharton, The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Beliefs and

Preferences: Evidence from the Options Market February 4 Jose Liberti, Chicago, Initiative, Incentives and Soft Information: How does Delegation Impact

the Role of Bank Relationship Managers?

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March 18 Piero Gottardi, University of Venice, Market Power and Information Revelation in Dynamic

Trading 25 Vojislav Maksimovic, University of Maryland, Financial and Legal Constraints to Firm

Growth: Does Size Matter? 26 Hans Degryse, University of Leuven, Softening Competition by Enhencing Entry: An Example

from the Banking Industry April 1 Francesca Cornelli, LBS, Pre-IPO Markets 8 Massimo Massa, INSEAD, Hedging, Stock Market Participation and Portfolio Choice 9 Peter Groznik, Immigration and Finance 15 Helene Rey, Princeton University, Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flow 16 Lev Ratnovski, UvA, Equilibrium Models of Misvaluation 23 Joachim Grammig, University of St. Gallen, How Large is Liquidity Risk in an Automated

Auction Market? 29 Riccardo Calcagno, Tilburg University, Capital Structure and Managerial Compensation May 7 Florian Heider, New York University, Leverage and Asymmetric Information About Risk and

Value 13 Lasse Pedersen, New York University, Predatory Trading 19 Markus Brunnermeier, Princeton, Optimal Expectations 21 Arnoud Boot, UvA, The Economic Value of Flexibility when there is Disagreement 27 Jeffrey Wurgler, New York University, Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock

Returns 28 Sophie Manigart, University of Gent, Financing and Investment Interdependencies in Unquoted

Belgian Companies: The Role of Venture Capital June 3 George Allayanis, University of Virginia, Corporate Governance and the Hedging Premium

Around the World September 9 Daniel Wolfenzon, A Theory of Family Business Groups and Pyramidal Ownership 10 Liang Zou, UvA, Compound Utility Theory 23 Bernard Yeung, NYU Stern, Corporate Stability and Economic Growth 24 Armin Schwienbacher, UvA, Finance, Liquidity of Exit Markets and Venture Capital Finance 30 Martijn Cremers, Yale, Governance Mechanisms and Equity Prices October 7 Fausto Panunzi, University of Bologna, Tender Offers and Leverage 14 Dirk Hackbarth, Kelley School of Business, Indiana, Managerial Optimism, Overconfidence,

and Capital Structure Decisions 15 Enrico Perotti, UvA, Finance, Circulation of Ideas 28 Daniel Dorn, Drexel University, Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs? November 4 Chris Leach, University of Colorado, On the Strategic Use of Debt and Capacity in Imperfectly

Competitive Product Markets 5 Lunch Seminar

Stefan Arping, UvA, Finance, Turning Ideas into Products: The Paradox of Expropriation 18 Thomas J. Chemmanur, Boston College, Angels, Venture Capitalists, and Entrepreneurs: A

Dynamic Model of Private Equity Financing 19 Stijn Claessens, UvA, Finance, Accessing International Equity Markets: What Firms from

Which Countries Go Abroad? 25 Walid Busaba, University of Western Ontario, Bookbuilding VS. Fixed Price Revisited: the

Effect of Aftermarket Trading 26 Sugato Bhattacharyya, University of Michigan, Marking to Market, Trading Activity and Mutual

Fund Performance December 2 Kathryn M. Dominguez, University of Michigan, Exchange Rate Exposure

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9 Antoine Faure-Grimaud, LSE, Time to Think: Financial Contracting with Bandit Rationality 18 Ulrike Malmendier, Stanford GSB, Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the

Market’s Reaction Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam February 20 Michele Cavallo, New York University, Government Employment and the Dynamic Effects of

Fiscal Policy Shocks 28 Xenia Matschke, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Labor Market Rigidities and the Political

Economy of Trade Protection June 27 Jan Marc Berk, De Nederlandsche Bank, New Economy, Old Central Banks? October 3 David Lando, Copenhagen Business School, Mispricing of Step-up Bonds in the European

Telecom Sector November 26 Paul De Grauwe, Cath. University of Leuven, Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates Visitors: Namwon Hyung, University of Seoul, Korea, Rotterdam, January 13 – February 8 Itzhak Zilcha, Tel Aviv University, Israel, Rotterdam, April 9 - 16 Carmen Fillat Castejón, Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain, Rotterdam, June 3 – July 14

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2.3 LABOR, REGION AND ENVIRONMENT Coördinator: H. Oosterbeek (UvA); Deputy-co-ordinator: J.J.C.M. van den Bergh (VU) Research Fellows: EUR: L. van den Berg, P.A. Gautier, G.A. van der Knaap, R.A. de Mooij, J.H.M. Nelissen,

J.H.P. Paelinck (Honorary Fellow), C.N. Teulings, A.R. Thurik UvA: S. S. Gustafsson, J. Hartog, C.M. Lindahl, H. Oosterbeek, E.J.S. Plug, B.M.S. van Praag VU: J.H. Abbring, E..J. Bartelsman, G.J. van den Berg, J.C.J.M. van den Bergh, H.G. Bloemen,

F.A.G. den Butter, H.L.F. de Groot, S. Hochguertel, B. van der Klaauw, M. Lindeboom, P. Nijkamp, J.N. van Ommeren, P. Rietveld, J. Rouwendal, E.T. Verhoef, C. Withagen

Junior Research Fellows: UvA: E. Leuven, C.M. van Praag VU: M.A. Janssen, F. Portrait PhD Students: EUR: I.S. Buhai (as from 01/09/02), G.J. Kula (as from 01/09/99), E. Mendys (until 16/05/03),

G. Müller (as from 01/09/01), A.H.J. Otgaar (until 01/09/03), S.M.W. Phlippen (as from 01/09/03), Â. dos Reis Portela (as from 01/09/01), P. Woets (as from 01/09/03).

UvA: P. Cardoso (until 01/11/03), A. Ferrer-Carbonella (until 15/01/03), C.P.B.J. van Klaveren (as from 01/09/02), D.E. Kusmerski Bilard (as from 01/09/02), S. Maximiano (as from 01/09/02), S.M. Raita (as from 01/09/00), J. van der Sluis (as from 01/09/02), S. Worku (as from 01/04/02), M. Zijl (as from 01/09/00).

VU: M.R.E. Brons (as from 01/08/01), G. Debrezion (01/03-01/05 and as from 01/09/02), F. Eppink (as from 01/03/02), M.W. van Gelderen (until 15/10/03), E. Jongen (until 01/09/03), M.J. Koetse (as from 01/01/00), R. van der Kruk (as from 01/01/00), E. Leydesdorff (01/04 until 01/09), G.J. Linders (as from 01/05/01), R. Mendes (as from 01/09/02), A.L. Nozal (as from 01/09/02), S. Longhi (as from 01/02/01), M. Mastrogiacomo (until 01/09/03), J.C.M. Melendez-Hidalgo (as from 01/09/02), R.H.J. Mosch (as from 01/07/99), R.H. Muurling (as from 01/01/02), J. Noailly (until 01/06/03), K. Oltmer (as from 01/10/02), A. da Silva Pinto de Sá (as from 01/09/01), W. Vermeulen (as from 01/10/03), J.J. de Vries (until 01/03/03), S.V. Vujic (as from 01/09/00), R. Zhang (as from 13/09/02).

Discussion Papers 004 James Albrecht, Georgetown University, Pieter Gautier, EUR, Susan Vroman, Georgetown

University, Equilibrium Directed Search with Multiple Applications 013 Carla Sá, Raymond J.G.M. Florax, Piet Rietveld, VU, Determinants of the Regional Demand for

Higher Education 014 Niels Bosma, Gerrit de Wit, EIM Business and Policy Research, Zoetermeer, Martin Carree,

University of Maastricht, and EUR, Modelling Entrepreneurship 018 Bernard M.S. van Praag, Adam S. Booij, UvA, Risk Aversion and the Subjective Time Discount

Rate: A Joint Approach 019 Henri L.F. de Groot, VU, Peter Mulder, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU, Daan P. van

Soest, Tilburg University, Subsidizing the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies: Analyzing the Impact of Uncertainty, Learning and Maturation

022 Galit Cohen-Blankenstain, Harvard University, Peter Nijkamp, VU, The Appreciative System of Urban ICT Policies

023 Galit Cohen-Blankenstain, Harvard University, Peter Nijkamp, Kees van Montfort, VU, Modeling ICT Perceptions and Views of Urban Front Liners

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024 Robert A.J. Dur, Coen N. Teulings, EUR, Are Education Subsidies an Efficient Redistributive Device?

025 Mark J. Koetse, Arno J. van der Vlist, Henri L.F. de Groot, VU, Investment, Expectations and Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence on the Relevance of Firm Size

026 Pieter A. Gautier, Coen N. Teulings, EUR, How large are Search Frictions? 027 Erik T. Verhoef, Jan Rouwendal, VU, Pricing, Capacity Choice and Financing in

Transportation Networks 036 Piet Rietveld, VU, Valuation of Travel Time and TravelIer Information 038 Judith Y.T. Wang, Hai Yang, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Erik T.

Verhoef, VU, Strategic Interactions of Bilateral Monopoly on a Private Highway 039 Bernadette Power, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, UK, Gavin C. Reid, University

College Cork, Cork, Ireland, Flexibility, Firm-Specific Turbulence and the Performance of the Long-lived Small Firm

042 Maarten Lindeboom, VU, and IZA, Eddy van Doorslaer, EUR, Cut-point Shift and Index Shift in Self-reported Health

044 Henri L.F. de Groot, Gert-Jan Linders, Piet Rietveld, VU, Uma Subramanian, World Bank, Washington, The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns

045 C. Mirjam van Praag, Bernard van Praag, UvA, First Author Determinants: An Empirical Analysis

046 Justin van der Sluis, Mirjam van Praag, UvA, Wim Vijverberg, University of Texas at Dallas, and IZA, Entrepreneurship Selection and Performance

047 Mirjam van Praag, UvA, Gerrit de Wit, Niels Bosma, EIM, Zoetermeer, Initial Capital Constraints hinder Entrepreneurial Venture Performance

048 Marco van Herpen, University of Groningen, The Boston Consulting Group, C. Mirjam van Praag, UvA, Kees Cools, University of Groningen, The Boston Consulting Group, The Effects of Performance Measurement and Compensation on Motivation

049 Kees Cools, University of Groningen, The Boston Consulting Group, C. Mirjam van Praag, UvA, The Value Relevance of Disclosing a Single Corporate Target

050 C. Mirjam van Praag, UvA, Business Survival and Success of Young Small Business Owners 051 Kees Cools, Groningen University, and The Boston Consulting Group, C. Mirjam van Praag,

UvA, The Value Relevance of Forced Top Management Departures 059 Hendrik P. van Dalen, OCFEB, EUR, George Groenewold, and Jeanette J. Schoorl, Netherlands

Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Out of Africa: What drives the Pressure to emigrate? 061 Thomas de Graaff, Piet Rietveld, VU, ICT and Substitution between Out-of-home and At-home

work, the Importance of Timing 063 Rafael Lalive, IEW, University of Zürich, IZA, and CESifo, Social Interactions in

Unemployment 064 Erik T. Verhoef, VU, Speed-Flow Relations and Cost Functions for Congested Traffic: Theory

and Empirical Analysis 072 Maarten Lindeboom, VU, and IZA, France Portrait, VU, Gerard J. van den Berg, VU, IZA,

IFAU, and CEPR, Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death 078 Erik T. Verhoef, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Externalities in the Urban Economy 080 Raymond J.G.M. Florax, VU, and University of Illinois, Abay Mulatu, London School of

Economics, London, UK, Cees A. Withagen, Vrije UvA, and Tilburg University, Optimal Environmental Policy Differentials under Emissions Constraints

081 Raymond J.G.M. Florax, VU and UvA, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Misspecification in Linear Spatial Regression Models

082 Frank A.G. den Butter, Robert H.J. Mosch, VU, Trade, Trust and Transaction Cost 083 Eric Pels, Erik Verhoef, VU, The Economics of Airport Congestion Pricing 084 Jan Rouwendal, Wageningen University and VU, Willemijn van der Straaten, Wageningen

University, Dual Earners, Urban Labor Markets and Housing Demand 085 Jan Rouwendal, Erik T. Verhoef, VU, Second-best Pricing for Imperfect Substitutes in Urban

Networks 087 Frank A.G. den Butter, Silvie Y. Koppes, VU, Strikes in France and the Netherlands; A

Comparison of Labour Market Institutions 088 L. Broersma, Department of Economics and Department of Spatial Science, University of

Groningen; Frank A.G. den Butter, Department of Economics, VU; Udo Kock, International

14

Monetary Fund, A Cointegration Model for Search Equilibrium Wage Formation 089 Sander Wennekers, EIM Business and Policy Research; Roy Thurik, EUR, and EIM Business

and Policy Research; André van Stel, EIM Business and Policy Research; Niels Noorderhaven, Tilburg University, Uncertainty Avoidance and the Rate of Business Ownership across 22 OECD Countries, 1976-2000

092 Henri L.F. de Groot, Gert-Jan Linders, Piet Rietveld, VU, Why do OECD-Countries trade more? 093 Simonetta Longhi, Peter Nijkamp, VU; Iulia Traistaru, Center for European Integration Studies,

University of Bonn, Economic Integration and Manufacturing Location in EU Accession Countries

094 Coen N. Teulings, Casper G. de Vries, EUR, Generational Accounting, Solidarity and Pension Losses

097 Grzegorz Kula, EUR, Retirement with Perfect Insurance Thesis Defences: A. Ferrer-Carbonell (17/01/03), Quantitative Analysis of Well-being with Economic Applications (Prof. B.M.S. van Praag) A. de Blaeij (03/04/03), The Value of a Statistical Life in Road Safety (Profs. P. Nijkamp, P. Rietveld, E.T. Verhoef) R. Hoekstra (01/10/03), Structural Change of the Physical Economy. Decomposition Analysis of Physical and Hybrid-Unit (Prof. J.C.J.M. van den Bergh) K. Oltmer (22/05/03), Agricultural Policy, Land Use and Environmental Effects -Studies in Quantitative Research Synthesis (Prof. P. Nijkamp, Co-promotor Dr. R. Florax) J.M.P. de Kok (26/06/03), Human Resource Management within Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (Profs. A.R. Thurik and F.A.G. den Butter) J. Horbeek (26/06/03), The Elastic Workfloor; About the Implementation of Internal Flexibility Arrangements (Prof. J. Veenman) E. Mendys (26/09/03), Essays on Network Economics (Prof. M.C.W. Janssen) J. Noailly (31/10/03), Co-evolutionary Modeling for Sustainable Economic Development (Profs. J.C.J.M. van den Bergh, C.A.A.M. Withagen) W. van Winden (04/12/03), Essays on Urban ICT Policies (Prof. L. van den Berg) Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January 21-22

Job Search Workshop Dale Mortensen, A Search Theory of Wage Dispersion Gerard van den Berg and Aico van Vuuren, The Effects of Search Frictions on Wages Adrian Masters, Unpleasant Middlemen Jan Boone and Jan van Ours, Cyclical Fluctuations in Workplace Accidents Jean-Marc Robin with Pierre Cahuc and Fabien Postel-Vinay, Wage Bargaining With on-the-Job Search: A Structural Econometric Model, On Estimation of Job Search Models Jose Luis Moragaz and Maarten Janssen, Two Firms Are Enough for a Competitive Outcome, But What About Three or More? Pieter Gautier, Coen Teulings and Aico van Vuuren, On the Job Search and SortingHans Bloemen, Job Search, Hours Restrictions and Desired Hours of Work Dale Mortensen, How Are (Danish) Wages Determined?

February 4 Lena Edlund, Columbia University, Unwed Parenthood: Like Marriage or Like Divorce? 11 Simon Burgess, University of Bristol 18 Steve Machin, London School of Economics 25 Giorgio Brunello, Padova University, Are the More Educated Receiving More Training? Evidence

from Thailand

15

March 4 Alan Manning, London School of Economics, Good Jobs and Bad Jobs: Changes in UK

Employment 11 Applied Labour Day

Adriaan Kalwij, UvA, Permanent and Transitory Wage Inequality of British Men, 1975-2001: Year, Age and Cohort Effects (with Rob Alessie) Bart Cockx, Université Catholique de Louvain, The Exhaustion of Unemployment Insurance in Belgium. Does it Enhance the Transition to Jobs? (with Jean Ries) Michèle Belot, CPB, The Hague, Investments in Higher Education, Migration and Employment Protection Stefan Hochguertel, VU, The Dynamics of Self-employment and Household Wealth: New Evidence from Panel Data

18 Kenneth Troske, University of Missouri-Columbia, Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance

25 Michael Lechner, University of St. Gallen, Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models

April 1 Arnaud Chavalier, London School of Economics, University College Dublin, Does Parental

Education Matter: Result from A Natural Experiment 2 David Brownstone, Valuing Time and Reliability: Assessing the Evidence from Road Pricing

Demonstrations Kenneth A. Small, University of California at Irvine, Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression

9 Jim Stock, Harvard University, Asymptotic Distributions of Instrumental Variables Statistics with Many Weak Instruments

15 Guglielmo Weber, Padova University, Are Italian Household Portfolios Efficient? An Analysis Conditional on Housing

22 Lars Nesheim, University College London 29 Pierre Dubois, University of Toulouse, Effects on School Enrollment and Performance of a

Conditional Transfers Program in Mexico May 6 Eric Maurin, ENSEA, Paris 13 Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University, Wage Risk, Employment Risk, and Precautionary Saving 20 Alois Stutzer, University of Zurich 23-24

International Workshop, Modern Entrepreneurship, Regional Development and Policy: Dynamic and Evolutionary Perspectives Zoltan Acs & David Audretsch, The Missing Link: The Knowledge Filter and Endogenous Growth Jan Lambooy, Erik Stam & Frank van Oort, Entrepreneurship in the Emergence of Regional Clusters: Path Dependence and/or Path Creation? Luis Suarez-Villa, Innovative Capacity, Networks and the Rise of the Experimental Firm: Implications for Regional Development and Policy Marina van Geenhuizen & Peter Nijkamp, Learning Regions from an Evolutionary Perspective: Policymaking for Innovative Companies Peter Frank, Entrepreneurship and Economic Development: A Regional Analysis of the Role of Nonprofits Gordon Shockley, Public Sector Dani Shefer, Harnessing Know-how through Technology Transfer - University-Industry Partnership or Entrepreneurship and the Survival of the National Endowment for the Arts in the 1990s Enno Masurel, Ethnic Minority Entrepreneurs: The Generation Effect. An Analysis of Motivational Differences Between First and Second Generations Tuzin Baycan-Levent, Enno Masurel & Peter Nijkamp, Gender Differences in Ethnic Entrepreneurship Roberta Capello & Roberto Camagni, ICTs and Regional Competitiveness Dennis Young, Social Enterprise in Community and Economic Development in the United States: Organizational Identity, Corporate Form and Entrepreneurial Motivation

16

Petra Beusmans & Jos van Ommeren, Cooperation and Competition: Did Competition Policy Make Associations’ Behavior Less Defensive? David Audretsch & Max Keilbach, Entrepreneurship Capital and Economic Performance T.R. Lakshmanan & Lata Chatterjee, Entrepreneurship of the Urban Public Sector: Competition City in the Global Market Place Maria Giaoutzi & V.Vescoukis, The Role of ICTs in Building Enterpreneurial Capacity in the Regions of the Future

27 Ana Rute Cardoso, IZA, Bonn, Bargained Wages, Wage Drift and The Design of the Wage Setting System

September 23 Bernd Fitzenberger, University of Mannheim, The Gender Wage Gap in West-Germany and The

UK 30 Michael Svarer, University of Aarhus, Do Children Stabilize Marriages? October 2 Adam Rose, The Pennsylvania State University, Estimating Economic Impacts Of Disasters:

Natural Hazards, Technological Accidents, And Terrorist Attacks 7 Yves Zenou, University of Southampton, Do Oppositional Identities Reduce Employment for

Ethnic Minorities? 14 Ernesto Villanueva, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, The Marginal Propensity to Spend on Adult

Children 21 Applied Labour Day

Coen Teulings, EUR, Education, Growth, and Income Inequality (with Thijs van Rens) Ott Toomet, University of Aarhus, A Search Model of Discouragement Annette Bergemann, University of Mannheim, Evaluating the Employment Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in East Germany: Conditional Difference-in-Differences and Ashenfelter's Dip Adriaan Soetevent, Groningen Universiteit, Anonymity in Charity Anonymity in Giving in a Natural Context -- An Economic Field Experiment in Thirty Churches

28 Donal O’Neill, Maynooth University The Consequences of Specification Error for Distributional Analysis With an Application to Intergenerational Mobility

November 4 Simon Lee, University College London 11 Dolores Collado, Universidad de Alicante, Quasi-Geometric Consumers: Panel Data Evidence 18 Bjorn Ockert, MIT, Uppsula Universitet, What's the Value of an Acceptance Letter? Using

College Applicants to Estimate the Return to Education 25 James Banks, IFS, London, House Price Volatility and Home Ownership December 2 Simon Burgess, Bristol University, Employment, Family Union, and Childbearing Decisions in

Great Britain 9 Larry Kotlikoff, Boston University, Does It Pay to Work? 16 Christian Belzil, IZA, Bonn, Education and Training over the Life Cycle: The Causal Effect of

Education on Training Opportunities Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam January 29 Per Davidsson, Jönköping International Business School, Sweden, Small Firm Growth – Making

Sense across Several Studies Guests: Jim Albrecht, Georgetown University, Washington, Amsterdam, 1 week in March Michele Belloni, CeRP - Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Moncalieri, Amsterdam, March 3 – July 31 Per Davidsson, Jönköping International Business School, Sweden, Rotterdam, January 27 – 29 Marisa Hidalgo Hidalgo, Universidad de Alicante, Amsterdam, March 1 – June 30 Marta I. Lopez-Yurda, La Laguna, Spain, Amsterdam, August 22, 2003– February 1, 2004

17

Aura Reggiani, Università di Bologna, August 4 – October 3 Geert Ridder, University of Southern California, Dept. of Economics, - July 15 Ott Toomet, Aarhus University, Denmark, Amsterdam, September 15, 2003 – January 30, 2004o Susan Vroman, Georgetown University, Washington, 1 week in March

18

2.4 ECONOMETRICS Co-ordinator: S.J. Koopman (VU); Deputy Co-ordinator: R. Dekker (EUR) Research Fellows: EUR: H. Bart, R. Dekker, D.J. van Dijk, H.K. van Dijk, P.H.B.F. Franses, J.B.G. Frenk, C. Heij,

T. Kloek (Honorary Fellow), R. Paap, A.P.M. Wagelmans UvA: H.P. Boswijk, J.S. Cramer (Honorary Fellow), N.M. van Dijk, K.J. van Garderen,

J.G. de Gooijer, M.J. Goovaerts, J.F. Kiviet, F.R. Kleibergen, A.B. Klein, J.C.M. van Ophem

VU: B. Heidergott, S.J. Koopman, M. Ooms, A.A.N. Ridder, H.C. Tijms Junior Research Fellows: EUR: Z. Sandor UvA: D.G. Zerom VU: C. Bos PhD Students: EUR: G. Budai (as from 01/03/02), L.F. Hoogerheide (as from 01/09/00), P. Houweling (until

01/09/03), D. Huisman (as from 01/09/99), R.P. Nicolai (as from 01/06/03), R. van Oest (as from 01/09/00), M.D. de Pooter (as from 16/03/03), E. Porras Musalem (as from 01/09/01), F. Ravazzolo (01/09/03).

UvA: Y. Cheng (as from 01/09/02), A. al-Ibrahim (as from 14/11/03), A.S. Joseph (as from 01/09/02), R.J.A. Laeven (as from 15/04/02), A. van der Ploeg (as from 01/09/00), A. Ule (until 01/03/03).

VU: A.I.W. Hindrayanto (as from 01/09/03), K.M. Lee (as from 1/9/01). Discussion Papers: 003 Frank Kleibergen, UvA, Richard Paap, EUR, Generalized Reduced Rank Tests using the

Singular Value Decomposition 012 Eric Porras Musalem, Rommert Dekker, EUR, Controlling Inventories in a Supply Chain 031 Rob Luginbuhl, Siem Jan Koopman, VU, Convergence in European GDP Series 040 Sanjeev Sridharan, Westat, Rockville, USA, Suncica Vujic, Siem Jan Koopman, VU,

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates 052 Siem Jan Koopman, João Valle e Azevedo, VU, Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of

Business Cycles 057 Felisa J. Vazquez-Abad, Université de Montreal, Bernd Heidergott, VU, Gradient Estimation for

a Class of Systems with Bulk Services: A Problem in Public Transportation 069 João Valle e Azevedo, Siem Jan Koopman, VU, Antonio Rua, Banco de Portugal, Lisboa,

Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area 071 M. Angeles Carnero, University of Alicante; Siem Jan Koopman, VU; Marius Ooms, VU,

Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices 079 Rutger van Oest, Philip Hans Franses, EUR, Which Brands gain Share from which Brands?

Inference from Store-Level Scanner Data 091 Charles S. Bos, VU, Time Series Modelling using TSMod 3.24

19

Thesis Defences: S. Wuyts (27/03/03), Partner Selection in Business Markets - A Structural Embeddedness Perspective (Profs. P.H.B.F. Franses and H.R. Commandeur) O.L. Listes (12/06/03), Stochastic Programming Approaches for Strategic Logistics Problems (Prof. R. Dekker) F.J. Wille (07/10/03), Auditing using Bayesian Decision Analysis (Profs. J.H. Blokdijk RA, G.T. Timmer, co-promotor dr. A.F. de Vos) Seminars:

Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January 11 Peter Hansen, Brown University, US, An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive 14 Ted Hill, Georgia Institute of Technology, US, Secretary Problems and Optimal Stopping 23 Aurobindo Ghosh, University of Illinois at Urbana-hampaign, Testing Equality of two densities

using Neyman's Smooth Test February 7 Henri de Groot and Raymond Florax, VU, Workshop: Meta-Analysis and Policy-Oriented

Macro-Economic Research 22 TI-Econometrics Workshop

Pieter Omtzigt, University of Insubria, Italy, Small Sample Corrections on Tests Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Vectors in the Cointegrated VAR Model Robert-Paul Berben, Dutch Central Bank, Comovement in International Equity Markets: A Sectoral View Kees Jan van Garderen, UvA, Differential Geometry in Econometrics Soren Johansen, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, The Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated VAR Model

March 28 Marcelo Moreira, Harvard University, A General Theory of Hypothesis Testing in the

Simultaneous Equations Model April 4 Harry Groenevelt, Simon School of Business, University of Rochester, A Base Stock Inventory

Model with Possibility of Rushing Part of Order 25 Bertrand Candelon, University of Maastricht, Common Features: A Frequency Domain

Approach May 2 Tom Wansbeek, Universiteit van Groningen, Value Metrics, Share Performance and

Measurement Error 16 Nikolai L. Vasilevski, CINVESTAV del IPN, Mexico City, Mexico, Toeplitz Operators on the

Bergman Space 31 Workshop Econometrics

Javier Hidalgo, London School of Economics, UK, A Bootstrap Causality Test for Covaiance Stationary Processes Bea Canto, London School of Economics, UK, Nonlinear Dynamics Between the FTSE 100 Index and Futures Returns

June 27 Esther Ruiz Ortega, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Unobserved Component Models with

Asymmetric Conditional Variances (joint with Carmen Broto) M. Angeles Carnero, Universidad de Alicante, visiting VU, Time Series Modelling of Daily Spot Prices in European Electricity Markets (joint with Siem Jan Koopman and Marius Ooms)

20

November 7 Ulrich Rieder, Universitaet Ulm, Germany, Portfolio Optimization with Differential Information 15 Ken West, London School of Economics, UK, Instrumental Variables Estimation of

Heteroskedastic Linear Models using All Lags of Instruments Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam January 23 Siem-Jan Koopman, VU, The Non-Gaussian Airline Model for Robust Seasonal Adjustment February 13 Francesca Cornelli, London Business School, Donations 20 Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank, The Central Banker as a Risk Manager:

Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks 28 Gautam Tripathi, University of Wisconsin-Madison, GMM and Empirical Likelihood with

Stratified Data March 5 Dawit Zerom, Iowa State University, and UvA, On Additive Conditional Quantiles with High-

Dimensional Co-variates 6 Nikolaus Hautsch, University of Konstanz, Stochastic Conditional Intensity Processes 20 Jörg Breitung, University of Bonn, A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Co-integration

Vectors in Panel Data 27 Marcelo Moreira, Harvard University, A General Theory of Hypothesis Testing in the

Simultaneous Equations April 24 Lennart Hoogerheide, EUR, Efficient Sampling from Non-Standard Distributions using Neural

Network Approximations May 1 Michiel de Pooter, EUR, Modelling and Forecasting FOREX Realized Volatility 8 Angeles Carnero, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Outliers and Conditional

Heteroskedasticity in Time Series 15 George Kapetanios, Queen Mary College, University of London, Non-linear Unit Root Tests

using GLS Detrending June 19 Vladimir Protassov, Moscow State University, The Chattering Phenomenon in Optimization

Problems October 2 Zsolt Sandor, EUR, FIML Estimation of Market Equilibrium Models 9 Bas Donkers, EUR, A Derivative-based Estimator for Semiparametric Index Models 16 Michel van de Velden, Universitat Pompeu Pabra, Generalized Canonical Correlation Analysis

of Matrices with Different Row and Column Orders 30 Frédérique Bec, ENSAE, Vector Equilibrium Correction Models with Non-linear Discontinuous

Adjustments November 13 David Bock, University of Goteborg, Statistical Surveillance with Applications to Business

Cycle and Finance 20 Cheti Nicoletti, University of Essex, Correcting for Sample Selection: Alternative Estimators

Compared 27 Sylvia Kaufmann, Österreichische Nationalbank, The Business Cycle of European Countries.

Bayesian Clustering of Country-individual IP Growth Series December 4 Helmut Herwartz, Universität Kiel, A Bootstrap Approach to Specification Testing in Stationary

Panel Data Models - The Case of the Breusch-Pagan Test 18 Paolo Paruolo, University of Insubria, Common Trends and Cycles in 1(2) VAR Systems Guests: Frank Kleibergen, UvA, and Brown University, USA, Rotterdam, December 15 – 24

21

3 OTHER RESEARCH ACTIVITIES 3.1 Ph.D-Students: Some of the students cannot be classified in one of the TI-research groups concerning the content of their subjects, but are affiliated with the Tinbergen Institute: EUR: W.A. van den Berg (as from 01/11/01), D. Li (as from 01/11/00), I.V. Ossokina (as from

01/09/98). UvA: S.W. Bissessur (as from 01/09/02), D. Brounen (until 01/09/03), V. Dirksen (as from

01/08/00), F. Felsö (as from 01/09/03), E. Gustafsson-Wright (as from 01/09/01), R. Haijema (as from 01/09/02), O.A.C. van Hemert (as from 1/8/01), Y. Hu (as from 1/1/00), A. Noteberg (until 01/09/03), N. Radic (until 01/11/03), M. van Rinsum (as from 01/05/99), D.F. Schrager (as from 01/09/01).

VU: R.K. Andadari (as from 01/09/01), J.W.C. Arts (as from 1/9/01), L. Crul (as from 01/09/03), D.R. Fraeijhoven (as from 01/09/03 until 17/11/03), S.C.P.J. Go (as from 01/01/02), X.J. de Graaf (as from 15/04/02), R.J. Imeson (until 01/06/03), V. Kartseva (as from 01/10/03), S. Meents (as from 01/09/02), E. Mooi (as from 01/09/00), M.J. Reinders (as from 01/09/02), Z. Sasovova (as from 15/10/99), M. Schoute (until 01/02/03), N.C. Schouten (as from 01/09/03), H. Sunarto (as from 01/09/01), Y.Y. Tseng (as from 01/10/03).

Thesis Defences: M. Mekonnen Akalu (23/01/03), Project for Shareholder Value: a Capital Budgeting Perspective (Prof. J.R.Turner) I.S. Lammers (20/05/03), In Conflict, een Geschiedenis van Kennismanagement (Profs. A.A.I. Holtgrefe and M.C.D.P. Weggeman, co-promotor Dr. E.R.K. Spoor) D. Brounen (13/06/03), Real Estate Securitization and Corporate Strategy. From Bricks to Bucks (Prof. P.M.A. Eichholtz) 3.2 Research on Monday

'Research on Monday' is a series of seminars of the Faculty of Economics of the EUR, and the Tinbergen Institute.

Organisation: Robert Dur, Herman K. van Dijk, Joe Francois, and Christian Hafner.

Series LIV Spring February 24 Jean-Jacques Herings, Maastricht University, Intertemporal Market Division: The Case of

Alternating Monopoly March 10 Rocus van Opstal, CPB, Charting Choices: Economic Effects of Election Platforms 17 Sebastian Laurent, ENSAE, CREST, Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market:

New Stylized Facts April 14 Giacomo Corneo, University of Osnabrück, Inequality, the Amount of Public Bads and the Media 28 Matt Slaughter, Dartmouth, Vertical Specialization in Multinational Firms May 12 Amihai Glazer, University of California, Irvine, Good Policies can reduce Property Values 19 Tom Rothenberg, Berkeley, Robust Tests in the Linear Model

22

Series LV Autumn September 29 Jacob Goeree, UvA, Social Learning with Private and Common Values October 6 Ignazio Angeloni, European Central Bank, What does the European Union do? 13 Mirjam van Praag, UvA, The Value Relevance of the Internal Monitoring of Top Executives 20 Ludger Schuknecht, European Central Bank, Fiscal Costs of Financial Instability in

Industrialised Countries November 10 Thomas Schelling, University of Maryland 17 Jürgen von Hagen, ZEI, Bonn 24 Kai Konrad, Freie Universität Berlin, Opinion Leaders, Influence Activities, and Leadership Rents December 1 Jeanine Kippers, De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, Empirical Studies on Cash Payments 8 Sherman Robinson, IFPRI and CGIAR, Parameter Estimation using Maximum Entropy

Econometrics 22 Xavier Gabaix, MIT, Application of Extreme Value Theory to Finance and Industrial

Organization 3.3 Economics Colloquia, Series VII Lunch Seminars Organization: Cees Diks (until June), Franc Klaassen, Frank Kleibergen (until June), Sophocles Mavroeidis (from September), Arno Riedl and Florian Wagener (from September) January 30 Hans Peter Grüner, University of Mannheim, Should Central Banks Really be Flexible? February 27 Nick Vriend, Queen Mary College March 6 Ivo Arnold, Nyenrode The Role of Inflation Differentials in Regional Adjustment: Evidence from

the United States 13 Geert Dhaene, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Testing the Information Matrix Equality with

Robust Estimators 20 Bas Donkers, EUR, A Derivative Based Estimator For Semiparametric Index Models 27 Tanguy van Ypersele, FUNDP, Université de Namur, Property Crime with Private Protection: A

Market-for-Offenses Approach April 3 Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppe, University. of Kopenhagen, Evolutionary Stable Investments in

Stock Markets 10 Frank Westerhoff, University of Osnabruck, Multi-Asset Market Dynamics May 8 Bauke Visser, EUR 15 Karim Sadrieh, CentER, Tilburg University 24 Jean-Pierre Urbain, Universiteit Maastricht June 5 Alfredo Medio, University of Venice, Invariant Probability Distributions in Economic Models: A

General Result September 18 Karim Abadir, University of York, The Memory of Financial and Macro Markets 25 Gerard Pfann, University of Maastricht, Downsizing and Heterogeneous Firing Costs October 2 Feike C. Drost, Tilburg University 9 Jim Malcomson, University of Oxford, Efficiency Wages, Matching, and Unemployment: An

Analysis of Four OECD Countries 16 José Luis Moraga-González, EUR, Hybrid R&D 23 Aart de Zeeuw, CentER Tilburg, Stability of International Environmental Agreements with Stock

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Pollutants 30 CREED Workshop November 6 CeNDEF Lustrum Symposium

Cars Hommes, UvA, Opening, 5 years of CeNDEF Thomas Lux, Univ. of Kiel, Behavioural Approaches to Volatility Clustering: Models and Mechanism Marc Willinger, Univ. of Montpellier, Coordination in Cobweb Experiments with(out) Elicited Beliefs William Brock, Univ. of Wisconsin, Tipping points: Theory and Econometrics

O Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen 20 Marco Slikker, TU Maastricht 27 Peter van Els, Dutch Central Bank December 4 Wilco van Dijk, Vrije Universiteit 11 Wieland Mueller, CentER Tilburg, Job-Market Signalling and Screening: An Experimental Stud 3.4 ECODO Lunch Seminars Organization: Thomas de Graaff, Wendy Janssens and Robert Sparrow February 20 Jan Willem Gunning, Chris Elbers, AOE, Estimating Vulnerability March 13 Wietze Lise, IVM, Strategic Action in the Liberalised German Electricity Market 27 Bas van der Klaauw, AOE, The Effect of Financial Rewards on Students' Achievement: Evidence

from a Randomized Experiment' April 10 Wouter Zant, ESI, Revenue Risk and Consumption Smoothing in Smallholder Agricultu 24 Hans Bloemen, AOE, An Empirical Model of Collective Household Labour Supply with

Nonparticipation May 15 Henry Sandee, AOE and Jan ter Wengel, ESI Small Enterprise Clusters and Employment in

Indonesia 22 Jeljer Hoekstra, RE, Quotahopping of Fishermen September 18 Enno Masurel, ESI, Differences between First and Second Generation Ethnic Start-Ups: Implications

for a New Support Policy October 2 Chris Elbers, AOE, Imputed Welfare Estimates in Regression Analysis 16 Kees Camfferman, ACC/ARCA, The Profitability of the Dutch East India Company's Japan trade 30 Siem Jan Koopman, Ectrie & OR, Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: A Stochastic Common

Cycle Model for the Euro Area November 13 Herbert Rijken, FIN/BFS, Dynamics of Agency Credit Ratings: Influence of Rating Methodology and

Rating Migration Policy December 11 Jaap Abbring, AOE, Social Experiments in Real Time 3.4 TI Financial Support The Tinbergen Institute gives financial contributions to conferences and workshops, organised by researchers allied to the institute. In 2003 the following activities have been realised with support of TI: ‘On the Wealth of Nations – Extending the Tinbergen Heritage’, EUR, April 10-11.

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Invited speakers: Professors C. Sims (Princeton University), and J. Heckman (University of Chicago). ‘Bourgeois Virtues’, EUR, May 7 – June 6, Wednesdays’ and Fridays’ afternoons, Deirdre McCloskey. ‘The Methodology of Positive Economics - Milton Friedman's Essay at 50’, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, December 12 – 13, Erasmus Institute for Philosophy and Economics (EIPE). Invited contributors: Roger Backhouse, Daniel Hammond, Wade Hands, Kevin Hoover, Arjo Klamer, Deirdre McCloskey, Uskali Maki, Tom Mayer, Melvin Reder, Chris Starmer, David Teira Serrano, Jack Vromen, Oliver Williamson, and Jesús Zamora Bonilla.