Jim GurkaGOES-R Ground Segment Project Scientist

Program Council for the National Operational Processing Centers

June 13, 2012

GOES-R Contributions to Numerical Weather Prediction

Why GOES-R?

Visual & IR Imagery Lightning Mapping Space Weather Monitoring

Solar Imaging

GOES-R will provide improved detection and observations of meteorological phenomena that directly impact public safety, protection of property, and economic health and

development

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Improve hurricane track & intensity forecasts

Increase thunderstorm & tornado warning lead time

Improve aviation flight route planning Data for long-term climate variability

studies

Improve solar flare warnings for communications and navigation disruptions

More accurate monitoring of energetic particles responsible for radiation hazards to humans and spacecraft

Better monitoring of Coronal Mass Ejections to improve geomagnetic storm forecasting

Continuity of GOES Operational Satellite Program

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Program/System

Flight Segment

Ground Segment

System Design Review complete

All instruments have passed CDR

100 % delivery of baseline product algorithms

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Development Integration and Testing

S/C SDR complete

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ABI Delta CDR complete

Core GS PDR completed

Antenna System PDR completed

GS Project PDR complete

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mission PDR Part IMission PDR Part II

S/C PDR complete

S/C CDRABI Delivery

SEISS Delivery

EXIS Delivery

SUVI Delivery

GLM Delivery

Mission CDR

Antenna System CDR

GS Project CDR

ESPDS CDRCLASS CDR

RBU/NSOF/WCDAS installation

WCDAS complete

Launch Readiness Oct. 2015

RBU complete

NSOF complete

GOES–R Milestones

Core GS CDR

MAG Delivery

• User Readiness Plan completed February 2012

• Live Media Event at Goddard April 3, 2012

– 2012 tornado season

– More than 40 stations across the country participated including the Weather Channel

• GOES-R/S Launch contract awarded to United Launch Services, LLC on April 5, 2012

• Completed the joint NOAA/NASA Program Management Council (PMC) review for GOES-R Key Decision Point (KDP)-II/C Confirmation Review on May 16, 2012

– Formally approved the GOES-R Series Program to continue into critical design phase

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Program Updates

• GOES-R Re-Broadcast• GRB downlink specifications to be released in August

2012

• GRB next generation GVAR with greater bandwidth

• GRB Simulator in Development − Summer 2013 availability to address User

Readiness− 5 simulators to be made available to vendors and

users for developing /upgrading/prototyping real-time satellite reception of GOES-R L1B radiances and products

• JCSDA Computing Infrastructure Enhancements— S4 supercomputer at UW-CIMSS

— Jibb supercomputer at NASA GMAO

— Governance and User accounts in place

— NCEP Global Forecast system installed to advance R2O

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Program Updates (Con’t)

SPD Director Greg Mandt and Program Chief Scientist Steve Goodman tour the Super

Computer for Satellite Simulation and Data Assimilation Studies (S4) at UW-CIMSS.

The Joint Center in a big box (Jibb) supercomputer at NASA GMAO

• WMO Joint Working Group on Nowcasting Research and Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Workshop on the use of NWP for Nowcasting (Boulder, CO, October 24-26, 2011

• NOAA WoF-High Impact Weather 2nd Joint Workshop (Norman, OK, February 7-9, 2011)

• Fifth WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP (Sedona, AZ, May 22-25, 2012)

• NOAA Satellite Science Week (Kansas City, MO, April 30-May 4, 2012)

• 3rd WMO/WWRP International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August 6-10, 2012)

• NOAA Satellite Conference (Miami, FL, April 8-12, 2013)- special session on NWP and Data Assimilation for TCs, hurricanes, and heavy precipitation

•

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Workshop Participation and Support

Insert graphic

Simulated satellite image: 6.185-m, April 30, 2010

GOES-R Products

Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)

Aerosol Detection (Including Smoke and Dust)Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)Clear Sky MasksCloud and Moisture ImageryCloud Optical DepthCloud Particle Size DistributionCloud Top HeightCloud Top PhaseCloud Top PressureCloud Top TemperatureDerived Motion WindsDerived Stability IndicesDownward Shortwave Radiation: SurfaceFire/Hot Spot CharacterizationHurricane Intensity EstimationLand Surface Temperature (Skin)Legacy Vertical Moisture ProfileLegacy Vertical Temperature ProfileRadiancesRainfall Rate/QPEReflected Shortwave Radiation: TOASea Surface Temperature (Skin)Snow CoverTotal Precipitable WaterVolcanic Ash: Detection and Height

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Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

Lightning Detection: Events, Groups & Flashes

Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS)

Energetic Heavy IonsMagnetospheric Electrons & Protons: Low EnergyMagnetospheric Electrons: Med & High EnergyMagnetospheric Protons: Med & High EnergySolar and Galactic Protons

Magnetometer (MAG)

Geomagnetic Field

Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite (EXIS)

Solar Flux: EUVSolar Flux: X-ray Irradiance

Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI)

Solar EUV Imagery

Baseline Products

Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)

Absorbed Shortwave Radiation: SurfaceAerosol Particle SizeAircraft Icing ThreatCloud Ice Water PathCloud Layers/HeightsCloud Liquid WaterCloud TypeConvective InitiationCurrentsCurrents: OffshoreDownward Longwave Radiation: SurfaceEnhanced “V”/Overshooting Top DetectionFlood/Standing WaterIce CoverLow Cloud and FogOzone TotalProbability of RainfallRainfall PotentialSea and Lake Ice: AgeSea and Lake Ice: ConcentrationSea and Lake Ice: MotionSnow Depth (Over Plains)SO2 DetectionSurface AlbedoSurface EmissivityTropopause Folding Turbulence PredictionUpward Longwave Radiation: SurfaceUpward Longwave Radiation: TOAVegetation Fraction: GreenVegetation IndexVisibility

Future Capabilities

The GOES-R Proving Ground

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SPC – Norman, OK

GOES-13 Winds Over Hurricane Irene Using GOES-R Clear-Sky Mask, Cloud and

Derived Motion Winds (DMW) Algorithms

Slide courtesy of J. Daniels, NOAA/NESDIS

Significance: Early demonstration of GOES-R algorithms using current operational GOES imagers. Plans and work in place to replace existing operational GOES cloud and DMW algorithms with GOES-R algorithms.

Sponsored by the GOES-R Program Office and OSD

• Routine (hourly) experimental production of winds derived from GOES-13 11.2um imagery has been established over the Continental United States (CONUS) within STAR’s collaborative computing environment

• Some modifications have been made to the GOES-R cloud and wind algorithm software to account for the current operational GOES imager instrument characteristics

• Winds derived from GOES-13’s visible, short-wave IR, and water vapor bands will be added to the automation scripts in the near future

• Derived winds will be validated against available reference/”ground truth” winds observations captured from other observing systems

• Derived winds are being archived locally for use in future retrospective data assimilation studies within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Rapid Refresh and Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) systems.

Supports the WEATHER & WATER Goal

High-Level 100-400 mb

Mid-Level 400-700 mb

Low-Level >700 mb

Cloud-drift winds derived from 15-minute GOES-13 imagery over Hurricane Irene at 1930 UTC on 26 August 2011 using the clear-sky mask, cloud, and derived motion wind algorithms developed for the future GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI).

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Influence of Assimilating High-resolution Satellite-Derived Winds on Mesoscale Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones

-- Example: Hurricane Ike (2008) --

P ≤ 350 hPa 350 < P ≤ 800 hPa P > 800 hPa

Intensity analysis

Left: Assimilation of the rapid-scan winds into the mesoscale DART/WRF system produces superior analyses of Hurricane Ike’s intensity (OBS) over a Control (CTL) without the winds. Velden, CIMSS

Above: As a proxy for GOES-R 5-minute imagery, GOES-East rapid-scan imagery (7-min) is used to derive winds. The coverage vs. normally-available winds is substantially increased over Hurricane Ike.

Assimilation of “satcast” convection initiation indicators into the RUC / RAP

Improved storm growth with “natural” QC from assimilation of satcast CI data in RUC, coding of satcast assimilation in RAP / HRRR system ongoing

Withsatcast

Observedsatellite

16z +1h GSD RUC forecasts

27 April 2012 16zNo

satcast

16z 17z# of satcastCI indicators

ObservedRadar

17z 17z

Courtesy of T. Smith and S. Weygandt, NOAA-ESRL/GSD

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OBS-NSSL

MOSAIC

Precip

CTRL

Total lightning data used as a tool within NWP models to provide better initial conditions

• GLM Total lightning proxy data from the ENTLN were assimilated into the WRF-ARW model at cloud-resolving scales.

• Improved Initial Conditions will provide a better physical background at analysis time towards improving short term high impact weather forecasts (~3h). Lightning data can also used to limit the presence of spurious convection (and cold pools). Key in radar data sparse areas.

• To alleviate the need to use proxies for lightning in the model (e.g. lightning threats), full charging/discharge physics are currently being implemented into WRF-ARW within the NSSL 2-moment microphysics.

LIGHT

Courtesy of A. Fierro, CIMSS/NOAA

GOES-8 Wildfire ABBA fire product for the Pacific Northwest

Date: August 17, 2001Time: 2200 UTC

NAAPS Model Aerosol Analysisfor the continental U.S.Date: August 18, 2001

Time: 1200 UTC

Aerosol Transport Model Assimilation of the Wildfire ABBA Fire Product Using the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System

FIRES

Smoke

Courtesy of E. Prins, formerly of STAR14

GOES-R Preparing for Operations

Prepare for:– Transition to GOES Rebroadcast (GRB) that will replace GVAR

and be tested during PLT

– New Product Distribution and Access capabilities

– Post Launch Test of the first in-orbit GOES-R Series Satellites and Ground Segment

– Algorithm improvements and the addition of new data products

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Thank you!Any ???

For more information visit www.goes-r.gov

www.facebook.com/GOESRsatellite

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