GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensification forecasting

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone

intensification forecastingGustavo Jorge Goni

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory,

Miami, Florida, USA

Mark DeMaria, NOAA, USA.John Knaff, NOAA, USA.Charles Sampson, NRL, USA.Isaac Ginis, Univ. Rhode Island, USA.Francis Bringas, Univ. of Miami / CIMAS, USA.Alberto Mavume, Univ. of Cape Town, South Africa.Chris Lauer, NOAA, USA.I-I Lin, National Taiwan University, Taiwan.M. M. Ali, National Remote Sensing Center, India.Paul Sandery, Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia.Silvana Ramos-Buarque, Mercator Ocean, France.KiRyong Kang, National Typhoon Center, South Korea.Avichal Mehra, NOAA, USA.Eric Chassignet, Florida State University/COAPS, USA.George Halliwell, University of Miami, USA.


Global tropical cyclone genesis

NE Pac

Atlantic

SW Indian

NW Pac

SW PacSE Indian

N Indian

1990-2005


Error reduction in track and intensity forecast (North Atlantic)

1970-2005 = 50% reduction 72h lead time 1990-2005 = 15% reduction 72h lead time = 0% reduction 24h lead time

TC track prediction Intensity prediction


The oceans and TC intensification

1972: Leipper and Volgenau2000: Shay et al

Gulf of Mexico: Opal (95), Bret (99), Ivan (04), Wilma, Rita, and Katrina (05)

Caribbean Sea: Mitch (98)

NW Pacific: Imbudo (03), Maemi (03)

Mozambique Channel: Eline (00), Hudah (00), Japhet (03)

Hurricane force winds> 64 kts

26oC

Adapted from DeMaria and Kaplan


Tropical Cyclone IntensificationHurricane Katrina


Altimetry-derived isotherm depths


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)

Global validation for May 30, 2007

Rms dif = 15 kJ/cm2www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone


TC : ocean models and efforts

basin agency effort mode

Atlantic NOAA/NWS SHIPS (statistical) operational/research

NOAA/GFDL HYCOM + HWRF research

NOAA/NCEP HYCOM + HWRF Operational in 2009

U Miami and NOAA HYCOM + HWRF research

NOAA Ocean TCHP To operational/analysis

Mercator Global upper ocean forecast

operational

NW Pac Nat. Taiwan Univ. Ocean TCHP Research/analysis

NE Pac US Navy and NOAA STIPS (statistical) operational

N Indian Nat. Remote Sensing Center

Upper ocean monitoring

research/analysis

SW Pac

SW Indian

BOM CLAM/blue Link Operational Ocean

TCLAPS Research/analysis

SE Indian UCP and NOAA TCHP research/analysis


TC and ocean models and efforts

2003-2006 Atlantic Forecast Skill

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Forecast Interval (hr)

Pe

rce

nt

Imp

rov

em

en

t o

ve

r C

LIP

ER

or

SH

IFO

R

SHIPS

GFDL


Error reduction in Intensity forecast North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific


-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Forecast Interval (hr)

Pe

rce

nt

Imp

rov

em

en

t

All Cases

Isabel 2003

Ivan 2004

Emily 2005

Katrina 2005

Rita 2005

Wilma 2005

Katrina, Rita 5%Wilma 13%

Ivan 20%

Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from OHC for Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes

Mainelli et al, 2008


NOAA/NCEP intensity predictionRita (2005)

Observed

w/o NHC OHC Assimilation

With NHC OHC Assimilation


HYCOM - Hurricane Ivan (2004)


GOM: Interannual variability


Pacific Ocean


Mozambique Channel

Goni et al, 2008


North Indian Ocean

May 2003


UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MONITORING & FORECASTING

► Routine analysis and forecasting of heat content measures in Australian region based on BLUElink OceanMAPS

SHOHC50mOHC200mSSTATCHPD26C……..

http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hc/ocean_hc.shtml

http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hcf/ocean_hcf.shtml

Applications in the Australian region


► Regional version of BLUElink ocean model coupled to Bureau of Meteorology TC Prediction Model TCLAPS

► Designed to investigate impact of coupling on ocean and weather prediction skill.

► Main application is directed towards improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

COUPLED LIMITED AREA MODELLING AND PREDICTION SYSTEM

Applications in the Australian region


Cat 1 : Pa 980 hPaCat 2 : 979 Pa 965 hPaCat 3 : 964 Pa 945 hPaCat 4 : 944 Pa 920 hPaCat 5 : Pa 920 hPa

TC RAMMASUN

8-13 May, 2008

Averaged Temperature in the Oceanic Mixed Layer

GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATORTC RAMMASUN

Mixed Layer Temp


PSY3V1 Global (regular grid 1/2°)

POSTER: Investigation on an oceanic index for monitoring Tropical Cyclones

Days correlated

ITCHC over the inner circle of the TC (>100days)

J:J 22.49

J:J-1 42.67

GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATORGulf of Mexico

Cat 1 : Pa 980 hPaCat 2 : 979 Pa 965 hPaCat 3 : 964 Pa 945 hPaCat 4 : 944 Pa 920 hPaCat 5 : Pa 920 hPa


1 or 3 altimeters ?

(left) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1, GFO and Envisat. (right) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1 only.


(left) 1993-2005 average degradation in the field of TCHP after two altimeters (ERS2 and GFO) are removed.

1 or 3 altimeters ?


Work Ahead

• Research to Operations

• Analysis of key issues: TC translation speed, inner core - ocean interactions, positive-negative feedback.

• Improve models performance.

• Ocean observing system.

• Continue to have the international community involved in this type of studies.

• Only possible if real-time sea height fields able to resolve mesoscale from altimetry are available

Documents

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensification forecasting