Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto/AFS Global Light-Vehicle Production Outlook ( China Becoming the World Hub?)

Global Vehicle Forecast

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

WardsAuto/AFS Global Light-Vehicle Production

Outlook(China Becoming the World Hub?)



GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION FORECAST• After averaging 4%

year/year increases the past four years, production growth in 2015 slowed to an estimated 1.4% gain to 88.9 million units

• 2015 slowdown due to lower growth in China and downturns in Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia.

• China’s growth picks up in 2016 while most other major production hubs recently in decline at least stanch their losses.

• Annual production tops 100 million by 2019



• China, if it can keep its economy from imploding and continue steady economic growth, will continue as the bellwether for automotive production (and sales)

• Share for the rest of Asia-Pacific peaks in 2016, but begins to drop along with other regions, especially as Japan and South Korea-based automakers continue spreading capacity around the world

LONG-TERM PRODUCTION SHARE BY REGION



PRODUCTION OF TOP 12 BRANDOWNERS (Rank based on forecast volume 2016 through 2022)

Millions



PRODUCTION OF TOP BRANDOWNERS – CONTINUED (REST OF INDUSTRY) (Rank based on forecast volume 2016 through 2022)

Millions



• Platform consolidation• More production from globally based platforms• Vehicle proliferation• New volume to China

Lion’s share of new-platform startsMore foreign-based automakers initiating new

products there first

WHAT’S HAPPENING WHILE GLOBAL PRODUCTION CONTINUES ONWARD AND UPWARD



PLATFORM CONSOLIDATION

• The number of platforms globally peaks in 2016, then declines as global automakers consolidate architectures

• There still will be a spat of new platforms replacing older versions, including in some cases more than one

• New architectures expand the global manufacturing footprint of their owners

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022TOTAL PLATFORMS 387 404 400 399 397 391 390 387NEW PLATFORMS 17 29 10 12 2 3 4 1NET GAIN/LOSS 1 17 -4 -1 -2 -6 -1 -3

GLOBAL PLATFORM COUNT PER YEAR



• The Top 15 by volume will account for one-third of production by 2022

• The Top 50 (out of 387) in 2022 account for two-thirds of global volume

PRODUCTION BY PLATFORM VOLUME GROUPINGS – Top Heavy



REGIONAL GROWTH OF TOP 50 PLATFORMS

• Production in total for the highest volume platforms increases in all regions

• Biggest gains in China• Top 50 growth in Asia-

Less-China not as strong as other regions



GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION: Production Share Based on Number of Regions Where Each Platform is Manufactured

• Platforms produced in all five regions will account for one-in-three vehicles built in 2022, up from one-in-five in 2016

• Over 70% of production in 2022 will come from platforms assembled on at least three continents

• A major portion of the volume for one- and two-region platforms comes from General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler (due to the North American market’s penchant for big trucks), and from China-OEM engineered architectures

South America and Middle East/Africa counted as one region for this chart

Data includes all platforms



WHERE PRODUCTION OF NEW PLATFORMS ARE ORIGINATING

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022ASIA-PACIFIC (LESS CHINA) 4 4 2 3 0 0 0 0CHINA 8 11 3 2 1 0 0 0EUROPE 3 6 2 3 0 3 1 1NORTH AMERICA 0 4 1 2 0 0 1 0SOUTH AMERICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0MULTI-REGION STARTS 2 4 2 2 1 0 1 0

MULTI-REGION STARTS INCLUDING CHINA

1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0

High count for that year.

FIRST REGION TO START PRODUCTION OF NEW PLATFORMS(Based on Calendar Year Starts)

Production for most new architectures starting in China before spreading to other regions



WHO IS ORIGINATING NEW PLATFORMS AMONG TOP GLOBAL PRODUCERSNUMBER OF NEW

PLATFORMS STARTING OUTPUT IN CHINA BY

AUTOMAKER 2016 – 2022

GAC Motor 2Geely (Volvo) 2General Motors 2Honda Motor 2Brilliance Jinbei 1BYD 1Changan Auto 1Chery 1Chery-JLR 1Dongfeng-Luxgen 1FAW 1Ford Motor 1Suzuki Motor 1



• As major automakers expand globally, and developing markets continue growing, the number of programs (and nameplates) will increase to meet local needs

• Ironically, 2015 is a peak year for new-program launches even though a rash of new platforms debut in 2016

• The cadence of new programs, or product intros, indicates the next peak circa 2025

PROGRAMS PROLIFERATE AS PLATFORMS CONSOLIDATE

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PROGRAM COUNT 1,429 1,488 1,495 1,520 1,532 1,557 1,566 1,549NEW PROGRAMS 216 172 123 145 87 153 125 119NET GAIN/LOSS 105 59 7 25 12 25 9 -17

GLOBAL PROGRAM COUNT PER YEAR



NEW PROGRAM (PRODUCT) STARTS BY REGION New product startups appear to be waning in China, but just a lull after the bombardment of the past several years

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022TOTAL

2016-22

ASIA-PACIFIC (LESS CHINA) 78 52 30 28 12 63 50 22 257

CHINA 100 76 39 42 22 40 36 60 315

EUROPE 36 34 46 56 30 41 33 38 278

NORTH AMERICA 16 19 20 32 33 30 17 13 164

SOUTH AMERICA 6 7 5 6 6 6 8 12 50

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 4 19High count for that year.



PROGRAM (AND VEHICLE) EXPANSION AMONG HIGH-VOLUME PLATFORMS

• Even with globalization of platforms, successful expansion into global markets in many cases means some extent of product differentiation to meet local consumer tastes or regulations

• Thus, the number of programs on major platforms will increase by 23 in the next seven years

But nameplates off those programs, and the mid-cycle enhancements that go with them, will increase too.



CHINAASIA LESS

CHINA EUROPENORTH

AMERICASOUTH

AMERICAMIDEAST/AFRICA TOTAL

General Motors 33 16 12 33 2 0 96Toyota Motor 25 35 2 6 1 0 69Volkswagen 9 2 51 2 4 0 68Renault/Nissan 14 24 13 10 0 0 61Fiat Chrysler 6 2 28 14 8 0 58Ford Motor 14 1 16 18 2 0 51PSA/Peugeot-Citroen 17 0 19 1 1 3 41Hyundai (incl. Kia) 15 19 4 2 0 0 40Honda Motor 10 16 0 11 0 0 37BMW 3 0 23 5 0 0 31Daimler 2 0 19 4 0 0 25Suzuki Motor 7 17 1 0 0 0 25

HOW MUCH AND WHERE TOP OEMs ARE STARTING NEW PRODUCTS: 2016-2022

GM could be in the best position going forward based on its new-product cadence – got the bases covered in North America, appears to be regrouping in Europe and progressing well in China. Toyota also well-covered globally and has a lot of money



REPLACEMENT /NEW VOLUME PEAKS IN 2020

• Production from new programs peaks in 2020

• By 2022, over 80% of production will be new or replacement volume of vehicles in production from 2015



CHINA TAKES LION’S SHARE OF NEW VOLUME 2022 (and beyond?)

• Japan- and South Korea-based manufacturers prime new-product volume in 2015

• Japan/South Korea makers peak again in 2020

• In between, Europe soars in 2018 and 2019 – largely due to makeovers for big trucks – soars for North America

• Chinas emerges again 2022



Something will change over next five years – good or bad: Politics, oil prices, exchange rates, global and local economic health, manufacturer financial health, etc.

A likely result: OEM consolidation-- Who in best position to survive next economic

downturn or significant slowdown in demand globally or in major markets

Who lags in investing to meet 2025 (emissions and fuel efficiency standards)

WHAT WILL CHANGE THE OUTLOOK AND WHO IS BEST SET FOR IT?



• Powerful database and reporting tools to customize your output

• Scenario-building tool to consider different assumptions and their effects

FORECASTING TOOLS

Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn [email protected] - 248-799-2642



• Global production covering 6 regions

• Eight-year planning window, updated monthly

• Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A.

VEHICLE FORECAST




• Realistic picture of powertrain volumes

• Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric

• Eight-year forecast, updated monthly

POWERTRAIN FORECAST




• All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly

• By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume

PRODUCT CYCLES




Talk with us today to learn howWardsAuto can help you

Lisa [email protected]

248-799-2642

Nakia [email protected]

248-799-2622

Documents

Global Vehicle Forecast Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto/AFS Global Light-Vehicle Production Outlook ( China Becoming the World Hub?)