Global urban sanitation system hotspots: mass markets for disruptive onsite wastewater treatment

Global urban sanitation system hotspots: massmarkets for disruptive onsite wastewater treatment

technologies? An European perspective

Eckhard Störmer, Christian Binz, Bernhard Truffer

Eawag (CH) and Z_punkt (D)

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies

ToC– problem sketch: limitations of the

dominant design for the new markets– the FTA approach: Technology

Roadmapping for disruptive technologies– the results

• mass markets• new technologies• market actors and new business concepts

– conclusions


Problem sketch

Limitations of the successful sanitation solution of the OECD countries

• high amount of water needed• high investment costs• low flexibility for growing or shrinking settlements

cMass markets for disruptive wwt technologies

Problem sketchi.e. a radical shift in the paradigms of urban water management systemsHow can a mass market for onsite wastewater treatment be developed?

Bel.

Cyp.

Yemen

Oman Saudi Arabia U. A. E.

Qatar

Iran Iraq Syria

Jordan Israel

Leb. China

Mongolia

Afghanistan

Pakistan

India

Sri Lanka Maldives

Nepal Bhu.

Myanmar (Burma) Bang.

Andaman Islands (India)

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Brunei

Philippines

Taiwan

Cambodia

Vietnam

Laos

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand

Fiji New Caledonia

Solomon Islands

Kiribati

Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia

Guam (USA)

Japan

N. Korea

S. Korea

Kuril Islands

Wrangel Island

Aleutian Islands (USA)

New Siberian Islands

Severnaya Zemlya

Novaya Zemlya

Franz Josef Land Svalbard (Nor.)

Jan Mayen (Nor.) Banks Island

Victoria Island Baffin Island

Ellesmere Island

Island of Newfoundland

Kuwait Canary Islands (Sp.)

Sao Tome & Principe

Singapore Eq. Guinea

Faroe Is. (Den.)

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Ukraine Moldova

Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan

Yugo.

Mac.

Slov. Cro.

Bos.

Slovak.

Eritrea

Tajikistan

Galapagos Islands (Ecuador)

Mauritius

Seychelles

60°

Leb.

1. Where are potential mass markets?• low sewer connection rates today• high city growth• water scarcity

2. What solutions are feasible?• various technical concepts with source separation and recycling• incl. organizational concepts

3. Who are the relevant industry partners?• Role and opportunities of

• European small WWTP producers• transnational water industry • further related industry

Inte

rna

tio

nal

ity

(ma

rket

ou

tre

ach

)

core competence (increasing technological complexity)

Global

Europe

only Germany

ponds septic tanks, pumps, other components

wastewater treatment solutions water recycling systems

group 1

group 2

group 3

4. How can you get there?• R&D on technical components• strategies on going international • awareness building of experts and users

Hot

spo

t-A

naly

sis

Opt

ion

Va

riatio

n-A

naly

sis

Act

or-

Ana

lysi

sT

echn

olog

y-R

oadm

appi

ng

FTA approach: Innovation System Analysis with Technology Roadmapping



Results1: potential mass markets

South Atlantic Ocean South Pacific Ocean

North Pacific Ocean

North Atlantic Ocean

Indian Ocean

Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean

North Pacific Ocean

United States of America

U.S.A.

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

U. S. A.

French Polynesia (Fr.)

Argentina Uruguay

Paraguay

Chile

Bolivia

Peru

Ecuador

Colombia

Venezuela French Guiana (Fr.)

Suriname Guyana

The Bahamas

Cuba Dominican Republic

Panama Costa Rica

Nicaragua

Honduras Guatemala El Salvador

Trinidad and Tobago

Jam. Haiti Puerto Rico (US)

Greenland (Den.)

Iceland

Madagascar

South Africa Lesotho

Swaziland

Mozambique

Tanzania

Botswana Namibia Zimbabwe

Angola

Zaire

Zambia

Malawi

Burundi

Kenya Rwanda

Uganda

Congo

Gabon

Somalia

Ethiopia

Sudan

Djibouti

Belize

Egypt Libya

Chad

Niger

Algeria

Mali

Tunisia

Nigeria

Cameroon C. A. R.

Benin

Togo Ghana

Burkina Faso Barbados

Dominica

Côte D’Ivoire

Liberia

Sierra Leone

Guinea Guinea-Bissau

Senegal The Gambia

Mauritania

Western Sahara (Mor.)

Morocco

Finland Norway

Sweden Estonia Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Romania

Bulgaria

Turkey Greece

Czech.

Hung.

Italy Albania

Portugal

France

Spain

Aus. Switz.

United Kingdom

Ireland Den.

Germany Neth. Bel.

Cyp.

Yemen


Qatar

Iran Iraq Syria

Jordan Israel

Leb. China

Mongolia

Russia

Afghanistan

Pakistan

India

Sri Lanka Maldives

Nepal Bhu.



Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Brunei

Philippines

Taiwan

Cambodia

Vietnam

Laos

Australia

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand

Fiji New Caledonia

Solomon Islands

Kiribati


Guam (USA)

Japan

N. Korea

S. Korea

Kuril Islands

Wrangel Island



Severnaya Zemlya

Novaya Zemlya




Ellesmere Island



Sao Tome & Principe


Faroe Is. (Den.)

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Ukraine Moldova


Turkmenistan


Yugo.

Mac.

Slov. Cro.

Bos.

Slovak.

Eritrea

Tajikistan

Hawaiian Islands


Mauritius

Seychelles

60°

No Name Growth EutrophicationWater scarcityFloods Earthquakes Sewerage connectionA Eutrophication in industrialized countriesA-I Huge eutrophication 0 ++ 0 + 0 --A-II Huge eutrophication and water scarcity 0 ++ + + 0 --A-III Huge eutrophication, water scarcity and earthquakes 0 ++ + 0 + --B Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerageB Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerage -- 0 0 + 0 -C Developing countries with medium to high sewerage coverageC-I Eutrophication, vulnerability and urban growth (no water scarcity) + + 0 0 + 0C-II Water scarcity, scattered fast frowing cities and vulnerability (no eutrophication) + 0 + 0 + 0C-III Vulnerability, water scarcity and eutrophication (no fast city growth) 0 + + 0 ++ 0C-IV Strong water scarcity, fast growing cities and eutrophication (no vulnerability) + + ++ 0 0 0D Developing countries with poor sewerage connection rates and urban growthD-I Poor, but fast growing cities (with water scarcity) ++ + + + 0 ++D-II High water scarcity and fast growing cities + 0 ++ 0 + +D-III Dynamically developing regions with many infrastructure challenges ++ + + ++ ++ +

Key driver


Results1: focus on „entry“ markets

Bel.

Cyp.

Yemen


Qatar

Iran Iraq Syria

Jordan Israel

Leb. China

Mongolia

Russia

Afghanistan

Pakistan

India

Sri Lanka Maldives

Nepal Bhu.



Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Brunei

Philippines

Taiwan

Cambodia

Vietnam

Laos

Australia

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand

Fiji New Caledonia

Solomon Islands

Kiribati


Guam (USA)

Japan

N. Korea

S. Korea

Kuril Islands

Wrangel Island



Severnaya Zemlya

Novaya Zemlya




Ellesmere Island



Sao Tome & Principe


Faroe Is. (Den.)

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Ukraine Moldova


Turkmenistan


Yugo.

Mac.

Slov. Cro.

Bos.

Slovak.

Eritrea

Tajikistan

Hawaiian Islands


Mauritius

Seychelles

60°

No Name Growth EutrophicationWater scarcityFloods Earthquakes Sewerage connectionA Eutrophication in industrialized countriesA-I Huge eutrophication 0 ++ 0 + 0 --A-II Huge eutrophication and water scarcity 0 ++ + + 0 --A-III Huge eutrophication, water scarcity and earthquakes 0 ++ + 0 + --B Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerageB Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerage -- 0 0 + 0 -C Developing countries with medium to high sewerage coverageC-I Eutrophication, vulnerability and urban growth (no water scarcity) + + 0 0 + 0C-II Water scarcity, scattered fast frowing cities and vulnerability (no eutrophication) + 0 + 0 + 0C-III Vulnerability, water scarcity and eutrophication (no fast city growth) 0 + + 0 ++ 0C-IV Strong water scarcity, fast growing cities and eutrophication (no vulnerability) + + ++ 0 0 0D Developing countries with poor sewerage connection rates and urban growthD-I Poor, but fast growing cities (with water scarcity) ++ + + + 0 ++D-II High water scarcity and fast growing cities + 0 ++ 0 + +D-III Dynamically developing regions with many infrastructure challenges ++ + + ++ ++ +

Water scarcity

City growth

Mediumto lowsewerage

Leb.

Regions with water scarcity andfast growing cities no “poor” countries

Technological challengeswater saving systems

new dwellings, huge appartment blocksno low cost solutions

Examples for entrymarkets 2020:

Warum dieses Marktsegment?• ‚fairer‘ Wettbewerb mit zentral• Schwellenländer mit Dynamik• Neue Märkte für Sie• Wassersparen als Kerntreiber• Denken in neuer Gebäude- kategorie


Single family houseSmall appartment house

Large appartmenthouse

Hotel„No-frills“ or water intensive

Office building

Australia Post Headquarter (with decent bw recycling)Source: http://www.triqua.eu/triqua/fs3_site.nsf/htmlViewDocuments/69A6881A6987EE4AC12573D0003E86E2

Results1: entry market segments

2nd step 2nd step


Inte

rnat

ion

alit

y(m

arke

to

utr

each

)

core competence (increasing technological complexity)

Global

Europe

only Germany

ponds septic tanks, pumps, other components

wastewater treatment solutions water recycling systems

group 1

group 2

group 3

Results2: actor setting


Core ideaOST 1water saving without loss of comfort

OST 2Production of recycling water for irrigation

OST 3very low net water demand by high recycling ratio

Net water consumption (L/p/d) 30-80 30-80 < 30

Water saving devices state of the art water saving devices

state of the art water saving devices

cutting edge water saving devices

Number of wastewater piping system 1 2 separate piping systems for black- and greywater

2 separate piping systems for black- and greywater

Treatment reactors one combined wastewater treatment reactor with high effluent quality

•Blackwater reactor: anaerobia MBR•Greywater reactor

•Blackwater reactor: anaerobia MBR•Greywater reactor•water recycling at source (shower)•Point of use drinking water treatment

Type of water reuse inhouse toilet flushing inhouse toilet flushing, external irrigation of agricultural areas

Reuse inhouse in drinking water quality for washing-machine, shower and toilet

Energy recovery None, optionally with heat Primary plus heat Primary plus heat

Management system central control of operation with remote control, maintenance on demand

Contracting of water treatment services. Remote control of operation and maintenance on demand

Property management cares for inhouse water infrastructure accompanied by specialized water technology service

Results3: technology variants of next generation


OST 1 OST 2 OST 3


• Business services are important add on

Water saving technology

common development needs

Enhancement in water desinfection

Development in sensor technologies and remote control

Managementsystems• o&m concepts • finance and ownership concepts remote control and maintenance

Businessmodel – Contracting

caretaker principle

Energy recyclingHeat recovery

Anaerobial MBR + biogas production

1 liter toilet

Recycling shower (Point of Use-Recycling)

Membran technique

UV-treatment

chemical additives

Basics for theoperation ofOST fleets

Basics forwater recyclingwith OST

additional„features“



Conclusions– The next generation of OST seems to be far

away, but first steps are already taken– Technologies are nice, but do not work without

service concepts – Shift in the self-conception of producers is needed

– New mass markets seem to be too risky for German producers – they risk to loose their international dominance

– Technology Roadmapping with additional Innovation System Analysis has the potential to uncover the logic of a system change