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8/12/2019 Global Oil Trends
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Global Petroleum Issues
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Overview
Oil fuels world commerce 40% of global primary energy demand
Current demand ~22 billion bbl/yr
IEA & EIA predict rapidly rising demand Major production capacity needed
Reserves depleting fast
IEA International Energy Agency
EIA Energy Information Administration
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US Production
1970 peaked at 9.1 billion bbl/yr (1.4 billion m3)
Decline began in 1970s 1977 levelled off at 8.2 billion bbl/yr
1980 decline halted by boom in prices
1986 OPEC producers collapsed price
Prospects declined in mature US fields
Frontier (Alaska) closed to drilling
1993 Increased dependence on OPEC oil
1994 Gulf war vulnerability of Saudi supply
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World Supply
World endowment ~6000 billion bbl
Recoverable reserves ~2300 billion bbl
Technology may increase to ~3900 billion bbl
OPEC (mainly Middle East) 53%
OECD/OAS (W. Europe / Americas) 24%
Former Soviet Block 15%
China 4%
Rest of the World 4%
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Reserves and Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
WORLD OPEC OECD/OAS FORMERSOVIET
CHINA OTHER
BillionB
arrels
Recoverable Reserves
Total Reserves
Inferred Reserves
Proved Reserves
Cumulative Production
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World Production
World cumulative production to 2000 was
~811 billion bbl or about 35% of recoverablereserves
billion bbl % produced
OPEC 346 28 OECD/OAS 278 51
Former Soviet Block 125 36
China 25 29 Rest of the World 37 42
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Reserves and Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
WORLD OPEC OECD/OAS FORMERSOVIET
CHINA OTHER
BillionB
arrels
Cumulative Production
Inferred Reserves
Proved Reserves
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Reserves
Total global reserves are an estimateof the total oil originally in place (OOIP)
Proved reserves are those established
by geologists/engineers that areconventionally recoverable
Inferred reserves are those that may
be recovered with advanced technology(this category may expand over time)
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World Recoverable Reserves
OPEC
60%OECD/OAS
18%
FORMER SOVIET
15%
CHINA
4%
OTHER
3%
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Life of Reserves
Annual world production is ~21 billion bbl
By dividing the proven and inferred reserves(billion bbl) by the current production rates(billion bbl/yr), estimates of reserve life can
be obtained. For the world as a whole proved reserves
have a life of ~39 years with inferred reserves
for a further ~39 years for a total of
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Lifetime of Reserves
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
WORLD OPEC OECD/OAS FORMERSOVIET
CHINA OTHER
Lifein
Years
Inferred
Proved
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Location of World Reserves
OECD/OAS reserves are most depleted(>50%) and have a short life (~40 years atcurrent rates)
The majority of the reserves (60%) are in theformer OPEC countries in the Persian Gulf
These reserves can be produced at currentrates for more than 100 years.
Former Soviet block reserves also have along life (> 100 years) but represent
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Super Giants
Most petroleum is produced from a few (~40)
super-giant fields, fields holding over 500billion barrels.
Because of their size, super-giant fields were
easily discovered. In the continental United States it is certain
that no super-giant fields remain to bediscovered.
A super-giant or two might lie in the Alaskanor Canadian Arctic.
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Middle East Oil
1169614820.74Kuwait
759841570.81UAE
5310239621.30Iran
479*12535900.19*Iraq
552871421452.92Saudi Arabia
R/PTotalInferredProvedAnnual
Production
Country
* Production limited by embargo
All units are billion barrels
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OPEC Reserve Estimates It is possible that OPEC reserves have been
inflated for political reasons
Reserve estimates were increasedsignificantly in the late 80s (when OPECquotas were tied to reserves)
9795Kuwait
9833UAE
9348Iran
10047Iraq
258169Saudi Arabia
1989 Est.1986 Est.Country
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2002 Reserve Estimates Canadian Oil Sands have the potential to be
a major factor.
Assuming 20% of Oil Sands OOIP can berecovered the reserves might be:
714221935Middle East (Total)
180
895
CumulativeProduction
287376Saudi Arabia
81261USA
321326Canada (Oil Sands)
RemainingReserves
EstimatedReserves
Country
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Iran Oil History
1908 Oil discovered in SW Iran
1914 Production expanded during and after WWI
1939 Production fell sharply at the start of WWII 1943 Production reopened by Anglo-Iranian Oil Co.
1951 Iranian oil industry nationalized
1954 Working agreement between BP (formerlyAIOC) and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
1973 Iran took full control of national oil industry
1973-1978 Five super-giant fields discovered 1979 Production fell in Iranian revolution
1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war limited production
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Saudi Arabia Oil History 1933 Saudi concession granted to Arabian
American Oil Company (ARAMCO)
1938 First commercial discoveries 1948 Ghawar discovery - largest field in the world 82
billion bbls (13 billion m3)
1948-1955 Ten super-giant fields discovered 1956 National oil company formed
1965 Saudi Arabia overtook Kuwait as largest
producer 1974 Saudi government purchased majority holding
in ARAMCO
1988 Saudi ARAMCO fully nationalized
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Regional Map
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Regional Air Photo
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Geologic Setting Arabian-Iranian basin is underlain by
Precambrian basement
Wide platform slow intermittent subsidencewith shallow marine deposition throughoutPaleozoic and Mesozoic
Thick sequence of platform sedimentsdipping gently to E and NE
Tectonic movement in Late Cretaceous finallyeliminated seaway
Folding of Zagros, Taurus and Omanmountains took place at end of Tertiary
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Structural Traps
Large number of N-S trending anticlines andsynclines related to basement uplifts on
platform Many super-giant fields (eg Ghawar) are
contained within structural closures alongthese N-S trends in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
To N and E the sediments in the deeper partof the basin were folded along NW-SE trends
Overthrusts and tight folding and faulting
occurs in NE Iran Iran-Iraq oilfield follow these NW-SE trending
features
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Jurassic Saudi Reservoirs
Jurassic reservoirs occur in the broad gentlyfolded structures in Saudi Arabia
Most oil is produced from the Late Jurassic ArabFormation consisting of permeable carbonatesand evaporites with a thick anhydrite caprock
Organic-rich mid-Jurassic carbonates are the likelysource rocks
Four sequences of shallowing marine carbonatesand evaporites
Largest oil pools are in the oldest D-cycle
Ghawar is 225 km along strike, covers an area of2250 km2 and has an oil column of 400 m
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Cretaceous Saudi-Kuwaiti Reservoirs
In NE Saudi Arabia the basal Cretaceous unitcontains zones that appear to be source rocks
Cyclic sedimentation predominated in the MiddleCretaceous with the deposition of nonmarinesandstones alternating with shallow marinecarbonates
The sandstones are the primary reservoirs in theNE Saudi fields, including the super-giantSafaniya, the worlds largest offshore oil field.
Burgan is located in Kuwait in a N-S trendingstructure covering and area of over 2000 km2.
Production is from highly-permeable Cretaceous
sandstones
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Tertiary Iranian-Iraqi Reservoirs
In Iraq, the oil fields, including the super-giantKirkuk pool are in younger Eocene and Oligocene
limestone reefs The source rocks are thought to be Creatceous
The principal tectonic feature of Iran is the highly
folded Zagros mountain belt Paralleling the mountain belt are a series of longNW-SE trending asymmetric folds which containthe major oil fields
The main reservoir is the Asmari Formation, areefal limestone of Oligocene to early Mioceneage with an evaporite caprock
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ME Oil PoolsMaps
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Conclusions
Any major expansion of world oil production
must come from the Middle East North America and Europe are depleting
reserves at a rapid rate and production can
only be sustained for a few decades Improvements in technology can substantially
increase inferred reserves (i.e. Oil SandsTechnology)
With world annual demand at ~22 billion bblsproven world reserves will be depleted in < 40years
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SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF INDIA
I. INTERIOR ON LAND BASINS
(a) Undeformed Craton margin basins
Jaisalmer, Assam-Arakan
(b) Fore-deep basins
Punjab, Ganga & upper ASSAM
(c ) Interior Depressions
Vindhyan, Bikaner-NAGAUR,
Cuddapah, Bastar, Chattisgarh
Son-Mahanadi, Damodar,
Pranhita- Godavari & Decean Syneclise
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II. Coastal basins with offshore extension.
a) Divergent margin basins:
i) West coast
Cambay, Bombay offshore, Saurashtra,
Kerala, Laksha-Dweep & Konkan.
ii) East coastBengal, Mahanadi, Krishna-Godavari,
Palar & Cauveri
Bengal, Mahanadi & K.G are delta types superimposed on linear down
faulted graden / rift type basins with an older cycle of sedimentation.
Kutch basin is different from other coastal basins & come under the type
extra-continental downwarp, seperated from Indus basin by an E-W trending
Basement High
b) Convergent margin basin
Andaman basin.
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CATEGORY-I : Proved petroliferius basins with
Commercial production
ASSAM SHELF, BOMBAY OFFSHORE, CAMBAY,
CAUVERY, K-G & TRIPURA-CACHAR.
CATEGORY-II: Basins with known occurrences of
Hydrocarbon but without commercial
Production.
BENGAL, HIMALAYAN FOOT HILLS, JAISALMER,
MAHANADI.
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STATISTICS OF KNOWN TRAP SITUATIONS
TRAP TYPE USA NON COMMUNNISTCOUNTRIES GIANTS
ANTICLINE 65.4% 58.2% 89.1%
FAULT 5.2% 7.8%
UNCONFORMITY 0.7% 6.0% 29.3%
STRATIGRAPHIC 10.2% 16.1 9.4%
COMBINATION 18.5% 11.9%
STATISTICS OF RESERVOIR LITHOLOGY
SANDSTONES 66.8% 61.7% 55.1 %
CARBONATE 31.9 % 32.0 % 41.9 %
FRACTURED SHALE & 1.3% 6.3% 3.0%
IGNEOUS & METAMORPHIC ROCKS
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1 8 6 7 : F i r s t We l l
D r i l le d A t M a k um ,
A s s a m .
1 8 8 9 : F i r s t Pr o d u c e r
We l l D i g b o i # 1 d r i l l e d
b y A R& T Com p a n y .
U n t i l 1 9 5 5 , o n l y
p r i v a t e o i l
c om p a n ie s c a r r i e d
o u t e x p l o r a t i o n o f
h y d r o c a r b o n
r e s o u r c e s .
H i s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u n d
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H i s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u n di s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u n dI nI n 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 5 , Go v e r nm e n t, Go v e r nm e n t
o f In d i a d e c i d e d t oo f In d i a d e c i d e d t o
d e v e l o p t h e o i l a n dd e v e l o p t h e o i l a n d
n a t u r a l g a s r e s o u r c e sn a t u r a l g a s r e s o u r c e sa s p a r t o f t h e Pu b l ica s p a r t o f t h e P u b l i c
Se c t o r d e v e l o pm e n t .Se c t o r d e v e lo pm e n t .
.O i l a n d N a t u r a l Ga s.O i l a n d N a t u r a l Ga s
D i r e c t o r a t e w a s s e t u pD i r e c t o r a t e w a s s e t u p
a r o u n d a n u c l e u s o fa r o u n d a n u c l e u s o f
g e o s c i e n t i s t s f r o m t h eg e o s c i e n t i s t s f r o m t h e
Ge o l o g i c a l Su r v e y o fGe o l o g i c a l Su r v e y o f
I n d i a .I n d i a .
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BOMBAYOFFSHORE
Structural/Combina
tion TrapsDolomitic
Limestone of
Eocene AgeBasal Clastics
Fractured
Basement
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ASSAM
Structural/Combination &Stratigraphic Traps
Basal Sandstone & KopiliPays Of Eocene,
Barail Sands OfOligocene
Tipam & Surma Sands OfMiocene Age
Sylhet Limestone OfEocene Age
Fractured Basement InBoroholla-Champang
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a. Major thrust in deep water sector and Frontier basins.
b. Consolidation of new plays in time and space in
producing basins.
Ex p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sx p l o r a t i o n Fo c u s
Pr o d u c i n g b a s i n sDe e p w a t e r b a s in s
C H I N APA
KISTA
N
NEPAL
DECCANSYNECLISE
MYANMAR
BANGLADESH
Bhutan
BAY
OF
BENGAL
KALADGI
-
12
4
3
56 7
89
1
0
1
11
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
Fr o n t i e r b a s i n s
C H I N A
PA
KIST
AN
NEPAL
BOMBAY
KRISHNA-GODAVARI
OFFSHORE
MYANMAR
BANGLADESH
ASSAM
SHELF
Bhutan
BAY
OF
BENGAL
RAJASTHAN
CAMBAY
CAUVERY
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SED IMENTARY BAS INAL AREAS
(TOTAL 3 . 1 4 M I L L ION SQ . K M . )
poorly explored
17%
moderate to well
explored
16%
unexplored
40%
exploration
initiated
27%
Ex p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sx p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sFrontier BasinsFrontier BasinsFrontier Basins
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AL TERN AT E EN ERGYLT ERNA TE EN ERGY COAL BED M ETH AN EOAL BED METH AN EA vast CBM reserve to the
tune of 850 BCM to 8
TCM is estimated to belocked up in Indiancoals.
Best quality of coal seams
with adequatethickness and rank(high volatile A-Bgrade to low volatile
bituminous) are knownin the Damoder Valleygrabens.
INDEX
1. Damodar Valley
2. Koel Valley
3. Sone Valley
4. Mahanadi Valley
5. Godavari Valley
6. Satpura Basin
7. Rajmahal
8. Deogarh Hazaribagh Group9. Darjeeling & NEFA
10. Garo Hills
11. Khasi Jaintia Hills
12. Mikir Hil ls
13. Jammu
14. Cambay Basin
15. Kutch
16. Bikaner Basin
17. Jungel Gali
1 to 9 are Lower Gondwanas of Permian age
10 to 17 are of Eocene age
INDEX
1. Damodar Valley
2. Koel Valley
3. Sone Valley
4. Mahanadi Valley
5. Godavari Valley
6. Satpura Basin
7. Rajmahal
8. Deogarh Hazaribagh Group9. Darjeeling & NEFA
10. Garo Hills
11. Khasi Jaintia Hills
12. Mikir Hil ls
13. Jammu
14. Cambay Basin
15. Kutch
16. Bikaner Basin
17. Jungel Gali
1 to 9 are Lower Gondwanas of Permian age
10 to 17 are of Eocene age
Ex p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sx p l o r a t i o n Fo c u s
Es t im a t ed CBM
r e s o u r c e o f I n d i a is
a b o u t 2 6 2 .5 b c m
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BSR
AL TERN AT E EN ERGY GAS H YDRAT EOn e c u b ic m e t re o f p u r eh y d r a t e c o n t a i n s 1 6 4 m 3
o f m e t h a n e g a s a t ST P .
NA T IONAL GAS HY DRATE PROGRAM ME
WAS LAUNCHED BY TH E MOP& NG I N
1 9 9 7 .
ONGC , STA RTED IN -HOU SE STU D IES
FOR EVA LUA T ION OF GAS HYDRATERESOURCES IN IN D IA N OFFSHORE
AREAS .
BA SED ON THE STUD I ES K G
OFFSHORE AREA HA S BEEN
IDENT I F I ED AS A M ODEL F IELD
LABORATORY .
Ex p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sx p l o r a t i o n Fo c u s