Global Market Forecast 2012-2031

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Air Transport - Global Forecast

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  • Global Market Forecast 2012-2031Presented by: CHRIS EMERSONSVP, Future Programmes & Market Strategy

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Aviation in the context of world economy

    56.6m

    illion

    Jobs supportedWorld-wide

    Globallycontributes

    $2.2

    trillion

    Aviations globaleconomic impact

    19thIf aviation was acountry ranked

    by GDP

    2,681,000,000passengers carried in 2010

    $5.3 trillionworth of cargo shipped by

    air in 2010

    2%of global man-made CO2

    emissions come from aviation

    Source: IHS Global Inisght, OAG, Airbus

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic continued to post strong growth

    * since 2000

    Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis

    WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS

    FinancialCrisis

    +53%*

    Source: ICAO, Airbus

    Evolution of world annual RPK traffic

    0,0

    0,5

    1,0

    1,5

    2,0

    2,5

    3,0

    3,5

    4,0

    4,5

    5,0

    1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic continued to post strong growth

    * since 2000

    Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis

    WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS

    FinancialCrisis

    +53%*

    Source: ICAO, Airbus

    Evolution of world annual RPK traffic

    0,0

    0,5

    1,0

    1,5

    2,0

    2,5

    3,0

    3,5

    4,0

    4,5

    5,0

    1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    Focus on the last decade:

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    World economic growth has clearlybeen driven by the emerging economies

    Source: IHS Global Insight, ICAO, OAG, Airbus

    Real GDP in 2005 US$

    Evolution ofReal GDP

    Emergingeconomies

    +86%

    World

    +32%Developedeconomies

    +18%

    Evolution of world RPKs and real GDP (Base 100 in 2000)

    Traffic growth+53%

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Economy spending less time in recession even through recent crises

    0%

    15%

    30%

    45%

    1919-1939 1940-1962 1963-1985 1986-2011

    Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

    8 years of recession

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 7

    671 701 678265 263 254

    746

    1 889

    3 377

    419

    560

    739

    0

    1 000

    2 000

    3 000

    4 000

    5 000

    2011 2021 2031

    Other

    Asia-Pacific

    North America

    Europe & CIS

    Leading to a larger Global Middle ClassGlobal Middle Class*(Millions of people)

    2,101

    3,413

    5,048X 2X 2

    X 5X 5

    % of World population30%7,000

    44%7,700

    60%8,400 World population

    * Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

    Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Population (billions) Urbanisation rate

    World urban population expected to rise from 3.5 billion people today up to 5 billion by 2030

    Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B

    51%

    60%

    70%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    Urban populationRural populationUrbanisation rate

    History Forecast

    Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

    Source: UN population division, Airbus

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Visiting friends and relatives is a key driver of traffic growth

    Region definition according to United Nations; Asia including Oceania, countries of the Middle East and countries of CIS,Europe including Russia

    2010 world inter-regional migration corridors per sending and receiving region (million persons) North America

    Asia

    Europe

    Latin America

    Africa

    North America

    Asia

    Europe

    Latin America

    Africa

    Continued demand for VFR traffic: >215M live outside their country of birth 700K foreign students studying in the US

    Visiting friends and relatives remained much more stable than business travel

    North America and Europe as largest destinations of immigration

    Asia-Pacific growing as a destination for immigrants

    Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    0,001

    0,01

    0,1

    1

    10

    0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000

    Trips* per capita - 2011

    2011 nominal GDP per capita ($US)

    Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

    * Passengers originating from respective country

    4.6xIn 2031 vs 2011

    China & India average propensity

    to travel

    USA

    France

    United Kingdom

    Germany

    India

    China

    China & India Average 2011

    China & India Average 2031

    Source: Sabre (annualized September 2011 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Airlines are becoming more efficient

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

    Other costsFuel cost

    Unit cost (cents/RPK in 2011 US$)

    History Forecast

    40%% cost from fuel 29% 13% 13% 33% 36%

    Source: ICAO, EIA, IHS Global Insight

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

    High oil prices here for the long-term

    Average price in the year displayed

    History ForecastBrent oil price (current US$ per bbl)

    Source: IHS CERA, Airbus

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft

    -4%

    0%

    4%

    8%

    12%

    16%

    20%

    2000 2010 2026**

    Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*

    Twin-aisle aircraft:

    +8%

    Single-aisle aircraft:

    +10%

    2010 vs. 2000

    Backlog

    * Passenger aircraft 100 seats** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 2030 new aircraft deliveries)

    Twin-aisle aircraft:

    +17%

    Single-aisle aircraft:

    +15%

    2026 vs. 2000

    Backlog

    Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year

    Page 13

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    2011 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

    42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day,

    Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

    Traffic as of month of September; Source: AirbusLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

    42Aviation

    Mega-cities(2011)

    > 90%of long-haul traffic

    on routes to/from/via42 cities

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    and by 2031 it will be over 90

    Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

    Traffic as of month of September. Source: AirbusLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

    2031 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

    92Aviation

    Mega-cities(2031)

    > 95%of long-haul traffic

    on routes to/from/via92 cities

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Source: Airbus, OAG

    Evolution of offered seats and number of served city pairs, long haul and short haul market, relative to 1995 (100%)

    100%

    125%

    150%

    175%

    200%

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Short haul served city pairsShort haul seats offeredLong haul served city pairsLong haul seats offered

    2011 vs. 1995Long haul seats offered

    +93%

    2011 vs. 1995Short haul seats offered

    +58%2011 vs. 1995

    Long haul served city pairs

    +42%2011 vs. 1995

    Short haul served city pairs

    +25%

    Traffic as of month of SeptemberLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

    Long-haul growing faster than short-haul

  • AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

    Airbus Global Market Forecast

    A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast

    Airlines Business Models Operations Competition Geopolitics

    Trends Analysis Consumer & Travel

    Surveys Tourism Migration Traffic flows Passenger demands

    Governments & Regulators

    Liberalization/ deregulation

    Investments and constraints

    Geopolitics

    Network Development

    Route planning Origin and

    destination demand Population centers

    Traffic Economics and

    Econometrics Fuel costs Yields Load Factors Trade and Value of

    Goods